Joe B/Athletic on the Stillers Game

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Athletic, paywall, free trial

 

Pretty good analysis

 

https://theathletic.com/1463717/2019/12/16/7-observations-from-bills-steelers-tredavious-white-again-proves-his-worth-and-the-offense-adjusts/

 

He praises Tre White and the Bills run D, deservedly.

Best analysis is of the Bills Offensive personnel decisions during the game.  Points out over the last month, " the Bills offense primarily featured “11 personnel” with one running back (usually Devin Singletary), one tight end (usually Dawson Knox) and three wide receivers (usually John Brown, Cole Beasley and Isaiah McKenzie). They took their strategy into a matchup with Baltimore, and the Ravens were more than ready to deal with the challenge."  In response vs Steelers, "The Bills featured multiple personnel groupings and changed them regularly during individual drives. It was an attempt to test the Steelers on doing their homework and to keep the opponents honest." (Lee Smith up, Knox down; Dimarco up, Roberts up, McKensie down, Foster 0).  He calls Daboll "a net positive on the season"

Best part of the article IMO is his assessment of the Bills goal-to-go personnel decisions:

"On the doorstep in the first quarter with one yard to go, the Bills decided against using their big personnel. Instead, they spread out the Steelers’ defense at the goal line with three wide receivers. It gave Allen the crease he needed on a keeper to plunge into the end zone for a touchdown, which wound up being the team’s only points until fourth quarter. (....)  In the fourth quarter following White’s second interception, the Bills went back to the old grouping. In four of the six snaps on that drive, the Bills lined up, attempting to go toe-to-toe with the Steelers defense. On those plays, the Bills used two tight ends, a fullback and Gore to predictably poor results. The Steelers knew what was coming, rushed the gaps between the tackles and forced Gore to try to gain yardage on the edges, which simply isn’t his game anymore. The Bills gained one yard on four attempts on those four snaps, forcing them to settle for a field goal. The Bills have been aggressive decision-makers on offense this season, and that offensive series reeked of playing for the field goal. If spreading out the Steelers’ defense worked so well the last time they were that close to the end zone, opting against using it on early downs made little sense. In those short-yardage situations, the Bills offense can’t fall into their self-made traps."

 

Joe points out that once again, Allen's WR are in part responsible for a problematic passing day.  One of the more interesting assessments is of Kroft and Knox's snaps (with a table giving numbers and snap percentages, Nice, Joe!) Knox was >70% for 4 weeks Mia-Den-Dal-Bal while Kroft dropped to a low of 18% vs Dallas.   Knox got 49% of the snaps last night while Kroft climbed to 28%.

Joe speculates Knox key 3rd down drop vs Baltimore may have impacted his snaps, but I think he's whiffing on the obvious reason: we needed a TE who could block, and ideally one who can both block and catch so as to not telegraph the play.  What impacted Knox snaps vs Steelers was not his his drop vs Baltimore, it was his total whiff on Judon leading to a strip sack.  Kroft, on the other hand, was a mauler on the final play of the Bal game.  He held his block with dropped hips and square pads and was a key piece of giving Allen time.  He balled, he got the call.  Strengthening my assessment is the fact that Lee Smith, who saw his offensive snaps plummet from 10-20% during Mia-Den-Dal to 3% during Bal, saw them climb to 48%.  It's blocking, not pass catching, that was driving TE playing time yesterday.

 

[TroutDog]

I appreciate how McD takes these young guys out after they’ve had a letdown. It gives them time to reflect and grasp the importance of fundamentals and what they are coached on. 
 

Thankfully Kroft was ready when called and Josh made a great play and pass, particularly with the look-off. Kudos to Daboll on that call as well. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

The heavy goal line offense that gained one yard on 4 attempts is concerning.  We have seen that in other games as well with Gore running in heavy package.  You have to seriously question Dabol on such calls.

[atlbillsfan1975]

49 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

I appreciate how McD takes these young guys out after they’ve had a letdown. It gives them time to reflect and grasp the importance of fundamentals and what they are coached on. 
 

Thankfully Kroft was ready when called and Josh made a great play and pass, particularly with the look-off. Kudos to Daboll on that call as well. 

I know some people here have wanted to run Kroft out of town, and I can understand why. I still believe Kroft is the most complete TE on this roster right now. Knox can be better eventually, but it will take time. A healthy Kroft who is finally getting enough practice time with Allen is showing what he can do. Let’s hope Kroft STAYS healthy for this playoff run. He could help provide another much needed playmaker for Josh and this offense.

Edited December 17, 2019 by atlbillsfan1975

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

The heavy goal line offense that gained one yard on 4 attempts is concerning.  We have seen that in other games as well with Gore running in heavy package.  You have to seriously question Dabol on such calls.

 

Inquiring minds want to know: Just how CONCERNING is it?

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

I appreciate how McD takes these young guys out after they’ve had a letdown. It gives them time to reflect and grasp the importance of fundamentals and what they are coached on.

 

Except I don't think that's what he does.  It's contrary to what Daboll says: said in Ravens game after Knox drop, he told Boras (TE coach) "get to him right away because we're gonna go right back to him".  Likewise after Singletary fumble, we passed to him on first play of next offensive series.  It was nullified by penalty on Dawkins, but he caught it.

[TroutDog]

56 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I know people here have wanted to run Kroft out of town, and I can understand why. I still believe Kroft is the most complete TE on this roster right now. Knox can be better eventually but it will take time. A healthy Kroft who is finally getting enough practice time with Allen is showing what he can do. Let’s hope Kroft STAYS healthy for this playoff run. He could help provide another much needed playmaker for Josh and this offense.

Agreed! The knee-jerk reactions are exhausting. Kroft went through a tough spell physically and, when your job is dependent on your body, you have to give it time. Just reality. 
 

None of that even touches on what he and Lee Smith (who didn’t have any phantom calls Sunday night) can offer Knox and Sweeney off the field. 

54 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Except I don't think that's what he does.  It's contrary to what Daboll says: said in Ravens game after Knox drop, he told Boras (TE coach) "get to him right away because we're gonna go right back to him".  Likewise after Singletary fumble, we passed to him on first play of next offensive series.  It was nullified by penalty on Dawkins, but he caught it.

Sorry, wasn’t referring to in the moment but the following weeks. He did it to Oliver this year as one example.  It paid dividends in that case. 
 

In addition, I would add that McD is not going to come out and say, “I’m giving him a breather so he can regroup” to the media. It’s about actions, not statements in my opinion. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by TroutDog

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

The heavy goal line offense that gained one yard on 4 attempts is concerning.  We have seen that in other games as well with Gore running in heavy package.  You have to seriously question Dabol on such calls.

 

So here's the yardage of Gore's carries prior to that series (unless named, ball carrier is Gore)

3 yd

5 yd

no gain

Gained at least 3 yds on 2 of 3 carries

 

Previously on that series:

9 yd

-1 yd

(Josh Allen keeper 2 yd, 1st down)

 

Here's the series where we got stuffed

-2 yd

-5 yd (aborted gadget play)

(Devin Singletary -3 yds, 4th down, FG)

 

It seems to me that Daboll, looking at overall results, is not without basis for expecting a bit more from Gore, and there was a breakdown in blocking or execution which led to the stuffs of both Gore and Singletary. 

 

That said, the breakdown may be that Daboll's play calling in those situations is far too predictable, and a good defense is keying off.  We certainly aren't winning the "man whupping man" battles up front.

 

 

 

[Dr. Who]

17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So here's the yardage of Gore's carries prior to that series (unless named, ball carrier is Gore)

3 yd

5 yd

no gain

Gained at least 3 yds on 2 of 3 carries

 

Previously on that series:

9 yd

-1 yd

(Josh Allen keeper 2 yd, 1st down)

 

Here's the series where we got stuffed

-2 yd

-5 yd (aborted gadget play)

(Devin Singletary -3 yds, 4th down, FG)

 

It seems to me that Daboll, looking at overall results, is not without basis for expecting a bit more from Gore, and there was a breakdown in blocking or execution which led to the stuffs of both Gore and Singletary. 

 

That said, the breakdown may be that Daboll's play calling in those situations is far too predictable, and a good defense is keying off.  We certainly aren't winning the "man whupping man" battles up front.

 

 

 

I think its often the predictable playcalling thing. You can see it coming and its exasperating. But then he pulls off a good sequence or tries a trick play. The fella is inconsistent.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Dr. Who

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

13 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

The heavy goal line offense that gained one yard on 4 attempts is concerning.  We have seen that in other games as well with Gore running in heavy package.  You have to seriously question Dabol on such calls.

 

There was a trick play in there I think as well. Might have been set up for that? 

[RoyBatty is alive]

3 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

There was a trick play in there I think as well. Might have been set up for that? 

 

Quite possible.

 

There was one game this year were we tried to run Gore with a heavy package and we got stuffed repeatedly, i dont reacll which game., the Redskins?  Regardless, i looked up his stats, Gore has 5 games this year where he averaged less than 2 yds/carry, that is pretty dismal.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Singletary is looking good but I think we are bottom of the barrel when it comes to RB talent. 

 

I think if Gore and Yeldon were released right now that both would be unsigned through waivers. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think its often the predictable playcalling thing. You can see it coming and its exasperating. But then he pulls off a good sequence or tries a trick play. The fella is inconsistent.

 

That may be.   I don't think Daboll self-scouts enough.  There was a point where we were running out of shotgun the lowest % in the league, and yet he would try to sell play-fake out of shotgun.  No Sale, Durrrrr.

 

It may be that the personnel sets and other tells he lines up with near the goal line tell the other team what's coming.  Maybe he (and McDermott) expects us to win "man whupping man" and we just don't when the other team is teeing off.

[whatdrought]

40 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

I appreciate how McD takes these young guys out after they’ve had a letdown. It gives them time to reflect and grasp the importance of fundamentals and what they are coached on. 
 

Thankfully Kroft was ready when called and Josh made a great play and pass, particularly with the look-off. Kudos to Daboll on that call as well. 

 

Agreed, and it seems to me, and I don't have anything to really back this up, that it isn't like a lot of coaches as in "you're in my dog house, I don't want to see your face." But rather it's about their development and help: "Lets take a step back and learn from this, and the next time you'll be ready."

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

There was a trick play in there I think as well. Might have been set up for that? 

 

Well, yes, but as has been said about some other Daboll trick plays, "that went off like a wet fart in a crowded party".

If your setup for the trick play gets snuffed like a candle, the trick won't fly.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, yes, but as has been said about some other Daboll trick plays, "that went off like a wet fart in a crowded party".

If your setup for the trick play gets snuffed like a candle, the trick won't fly.

 

True, any time gore starts running east to west, I have Tolbert flashbacks

[Franco_92]

Gore has fallen off the table and is a wasted down at this point. You can't waste downs against New England, or they will eat Allen alive.

 

Since Philly he's been awful, and even in the Denver game, aside from a random 27 yarder he went 14 for 38 yards, or ~2.7 yards per carry. His legs are just shot.

[thenorthremembers]

Was a big Joe B guy but his podcast with Fairburn is a cynic fest.   A lot of his takes are doom and gloom or a bright shade of black.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Was a big Joe B guy but his podcast with Fairburn is a cynic fest.   A lot of his takes are doom and gloom or a bright shade of black.

 

I have not yet heard Joe B acknowledge or accept some "crow" for predicting we lose to Pitts.

Anyone?

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I have not yet heard Joe B acknowledge or accept some "crow" for predicting we lose to Pitts.

Anyone?

 

 

Best of luck with that.