Is Josh Allen A Good Quarterback??? (Good Film Breakdown)

[Dr. Who]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm worried about 2 things.  One is, while I was very pleased and impressed at his improved technique at the start of this season, it has seemed to regress more than I'd like as the season wears on and he's playing tougher defenses which apply more pressure.  The second is decision making.  There are plays where he has sufficient time, and he has a gimme throw, and he "goes for the gusto" where he needs to move the chains.  I think that's the hero ball "if you want it done right, you got to do it yourself!" attitude that he had to have at Reedley and Wyoming, and it only got reinforced by last year's offensive debacle.  

It's analogous (to me) to something OL coach Bobby Johnson said that there will be times where you're asked to block one on one against a really good defender, and when that time comes, you've got to do it.  There are going to be times when Josh is asked to make a decision and make a play under pressure against a really good defense in order to move the chains and sustain a drive and when that time comes, he's got to do it.

 

So that's where he's not as far as I expect a high-first-round draft pick in his second year to be.  I expect him to be able to see a wide open RB in the flat without the help of a Snow Pole and flag.  I expect him to be able to see a wide-open John Brown across the middle.  And when he sees it, he's got to hit it.

I think these concerns are legitimate. There's a lot to like with Allen and some of the habitual detractors on this board are trolls or the equivalent -- an unintentional troll is perhaps worse. OTOH, there is definite ambiguity about Allen. I think his floor is tantalizing adequate starter who never puts it together enough to be consistent. That's not good enough for the number 7 overall pick and it won't win you Super Bowls. So, he won't bust, but he could be a fail given draft position and resources expended. However, I believe considering factors of character and ability, plus the general competence of the front office, it's still considerably more likely Allen develops into a true franchise qb.

Edited January 3, 2020 by Dr. Who

[ganesh]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think perhaps they are, with all due respect.   What do you call reasonable expectations of a high first round draft pick QB in his 2nd year? 

 

Josh Allen has made more strides in many aspects of his play than I hoped for.  I'm impressed.  I'm the one who posts passing charts from NextGenStats showing improvement in  passer rating to almost all areas of the field.  No one can question his "clutch" gene, his team ethic or his competitive spirit.  But I'd like to see more consistent technique and decision making.  It's not all on him - he's being asked to operate a very complex and variable offense, and sometimes the play calling seems inappropriate to the ability of the OL and/or WRs to execute.  But sometimes it is on him.  Sometimes he's taking the high degree of difficulty  throw across the field or the "kill shot" to the endzone when the 5 yd completion is what we need or the check-down to Singletary would give us a high-probability to move the chains.  People here get all frothy about failure to hit a high degree of difficulty throw that would be a sure TD, but that's not the real problem.  The real problem is failing to see Brown open all alone across the middle because he's waiting for Beasley to get open.  The real problem isn't missing Knox for a sure TD, it's failing to take the high-percentage checkdown to Motor without a defender within 7 yds and only one of them, that would move the chains.

 

He needs to take a step.  He needs to either hit those kill shots reliably, or he needs to make different decisions.  And that's a tough thing, because many a QB who "just needs to" this or that (just needs to stop throwing to the other team, a la Fitzy or Winston) has over time, not been able to change.

Another point to consider is that when Allen was drafted he was always considered a PROJECT QB among all the 5 QBs drafted in the round.  Even Rudolph Mason was considereed a more polished passer. This stemmed from him not really having a good college career.  What enamored everyone was his arm skills and ability to keep plays alive. 

 

Now entering NFL, he was initially anointed to be a clip holder and red-shirting his rookie season.  However, the Bills frighteningly found that they had no starting QB after a 40-3 shellacking at the hands of Baltimore.  They inserted a not-yet-ready-raw-rookie-QB into the regular season.  

 

This background tells me that we need to be patient with Josh and the fruits of that labor will come when he is ready.   He is a fighter and wants to play to the whistle  .  He is the ultimate competitor.  He will cajole his teammates to play at a high level and will them to wins.  The more reps he gets and also better players around him, he is going to get better.  The thing is Josh Allen is  NOT your prototypical NFL QB just like a Brett Favre was 25 years ago...You don't want to measure him against the standard NFL QB...he will be different and bring a different dimension to this game. 

9 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

Josh Allen was thought of as a very raw prospect who was going to need a couple years

 

Year 2 has CLEARLY been better than year 1. He just needs to make more of the routine throws. The deep stuff is just fine tuning. 

This is what sets the base expectations differently !

6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I think these concerns are legitimate. There's a lot to like with Allen and some of the habitual detractors on this board are trolls or the equivalent -- an unintentional troll is perhaps worse. OTOH, there is definite ambiguity about Allen. I think his floor is tantalizing adequate starter who never puts it together enough to be consistent. That's not good enough for the number 7 overall pick and it won't win you Super Bowls. So, he won't bust, but he could be a fail given draft position and resources expended. However, I believe considering factors of character and ability, plus the general competence of the front office, it's still considerably more likely Allen develops into a true franchise qb.

Agreed. People want him to play fearless and at the same time be subdued...It is very unrealistic...Our QB is different from everyone else and we have to live with it.  Why ask Allen to be a Tom Brady when that is not what he is.  It is insane.  

[StHustle]

13 hours ago, Motorin' said:

Like winning 10 games and taking his team to the playoffs? How many QBs did that in their second year? 

 

I get it, in retrospect you wish the Bills had selected Mahomes. At the time I wanted Bills to take Watson. 

 

Resentment is a subtle poison. Unless you can build a time machine and change the course of history, why don't you accept there's only a few championship caliber qb's right out of college. The rest have to develop.

 

Or are you one of the guys pining over Gardner Minshew, Kyle Allen, what Duck Hodges?

 

Aside from Watson and Mahomes, now in their 3rd season, what young QB all over the league do you think is way out performing Josh Allen?

 

 

 

Am I in the twilight zone right now? How is it too pages later and nobody has pointed out you totally missed naming Lamar Jackson. You know the all pro, MVP SECOND YEAR QB whose team is favored to win it all (and who Bills could have drafted and had two extra 2nd round picks on the roster)

 

With all that said, Lamar was an even bigger gamble than Josh Allen in my opinion. While so far it seems Lamar would have been the better pick, we didn't crap out on Allen. It could be almost JUST LIKE the Marino/Kelly draft. Bills passed up on Marino who eneded up almost the last pick of the first round (sound familiar) for Kelly. While, after is was all said and done, most regard Marino as better than Kelly...no real Bills fan is upset we took Kelly. They were both great QBs. I think it will end up the same way with JA and LJ except I believe both will have rings.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 hours ago, StHustle said:

 

Am I in the twilight zone right now? How is it too pages later and nobody has pointed out you totally missed naming Lamar Jackson. You know the all pro, MVP SECOND YEAR QB whose team is favored to win it all (and who Bills could have drafted and had two extra 2nd round picks on the roster)

 

With all that said, Lamar was an even bigger gamble than Josh Allen in my opinion. While so far it seems Lamar would have been the better pick, we didn't crap out on Allen. It could be almost JUST LIKE the Marino/Kelly draft. Bills passed up on Marino who eneded up almost the last pick of the first round (sound familiar) for Kelly. While, after is was all said and done, most regard Marino as better than Kelly...no real Bills fan is upset we took Kelly. They were both great QBs. I think it will end up the same way with JA and LJ except I believe both will have rings.

Lamar has done well no doubt 

 

let’s see him repeat that again next season 

 

last years MVP was Mahomes no?

and Faker Mayfield got tons of love. 
 

this year they have both fallen out of the MVP spotlight.  
 

well except Faker got the complete opposite redactional comments 

 

[Zona]

I have a feeling that we will see Allen take a step forward today. That "clutch" that was mentioned earlier on the qb sneak will be on full display for 60 minutes.

 

Josh will hopefully take command and lead the rest of the guys and drag them to where he wants to go. No more raw recruit. But a courageous leader will emerge. My gut tells me JA is the guy to get it done. The playoffs are a different game, and I think Josh will excel.

[Andy1]

Whatever happens in today’s game vs Houston, we need to remember that Josh is still very young in his development as a QB. When JK won his first playoff game he was in his third season with the Bills and was 28 years old. Josh is 23 and in his second year,  after coming from Wyoming. 
 

With that said, I think he will play well. We may see more designed run plays for him today. We need all weapons in attack mode on offense. 

[ricojes]

On 12/15/2019 at 9:15 AM, Scorp83 said:

Is Josh Allen A Good Quarterback???

 

At this point he is playoff caliber.  He has the tools and work ethic to be championship caliber, let's hope he can get there.  GO BILLS!

[JaCrispy]

18 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I think there is some semantic drift involved here. What you are calling good appears to be past the threshold of established franchise qb. I am calling good adequate starter with upside. I agree that there is a gap between where Allen is and the franchise qb we all hope he will become.

I was thinking the same thing about our differing definitions...?

[StHustle]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

Lamar has done well no doubt 

 

let’s see him repeat that again next season 

 

last years MVP was Mahomes no?

and Faker Mayfield got tons of love. 
 

this year they have both fallen out of the MVP spotlight.  
 

well except Faker got the complete opposite redactional comments 

 

 

Mahomes fall of was due to injury. He was on fire before that. Also ended the season very strong. Only thing that will stop Lamar is injury. There is no figuring him out or some defense that will stop him. If you really watch him play and truly understand football you would know that. It's simply impossible to take away everything he does well and he can beat you with any of them. Combine that with the fact he takes care of the football and you know he is the real deal.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, StHustle said:

 

Mahomes fall of was due to injury. He was on fire before that. Also ended the season very strong. Only thing that will stop Lamar is injury. There is no figuring him out or some defense that will stop him. If you really watch him play and truly understand football you would know that. It's simply impossible to take away everything he does well and he can beat you with any of them. Combine that with the fact he takes care of the football and you know he is the real deal.

 

Hmmmm.  Well, maybe not, but there seem to have been a couple that have slowed him down quite a lot.

[StHustle]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hmmmm.  Well, maybe not, but there seem to have been a couple that have slowed him down quite a lot.

Yeah like ours! In fact we held their offense to their least productive game of the season which gives me hope of pulling off a huge upset when we meet them in a game or two.

 

Lamar isn't invincible now, not saying that. Just saying there won't be some defensive scheme created that will turn him into a mediocre QB. Only top teir defenses will be able to slow him. 

[TroutDog]

Grades from CBS for Josh’s draft class bode well for the future:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/grading-nfls-next-generation-of-quarterbacks-lamar-jackson-josh-allen-finish-with-highest-marks/

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

Grades from CBS for Josh’s draft class bode well for the future:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/grading-nfls-next-generation-of-quarterbacks-lamar-jackson-josh-allen-finish-with-highest-marks/

 

Of course I love that he graded Josh high, but truly, I loathe these "grades" where one has no idea of the criteria and how they are being applied.

They have little meaning when our guy is graded poorly, and are similarly meaningless when our guy is graded well.

[TroutDog]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Of course I love that he graded Josh high, but truly, I loathe these "grades" where one has no idea of the criteria and how they are being applied.

They have little meaning when our guy is graded poorly, and are similarly meaningless when our guy is graded well.

I agree on the grade aspect but how he has them ranked I believe is completely fair and accurate. In addition, his write up on Josh was spot on noting that he made the largest jump from his rookie year to now. 
 

Josh makes me want to pull my hair out at times (don’t have enough, though ?) but I also feel intense excitement every time we have the ball. Been a LONG time since I’ve felt that as a Bills fan. 

[TheFunPolice]

The biggest plus to me is Allen's attitude and mental makeup

 

So much of sports (and life) comes down to mental strength and belief. 

 

Around here fans and most of the media have been pretty positive toward Allen in terms of support and encouragement. Plus the team has been winning and he has made some great plays this season.

 

That helps to get through the growing phase of a raw prospect. Confidence going forward is key.

 

Guys who come in and struggle right away sometimes get stuck in a cycle of bad games and negativity. If they aren't mentally tough and the fanbase turns on them their careers go down the tubes quickly.

 

Allen is in a great situation here and has bought himself some time to continue to develop as he has shown a lot of promise and toughness while the team wins games.

[transplantbillsfan]

I finally watched this. Thanks for posting it.

 

The most interesting part of that video was the breakdown of what Allen did against the Zero blitz when we were running the mesh concept to get Earl Thomas to move and throw the ball to Knox, who of course drops it.

 

Man. Between just that missed TD to McKenzie on a great pass and that poor route running by John Brown on the last play, we were just an inch away from winning that Ravens game.

[BigBillsFan]

What JaCrispy is saying, and I agree, is that when a player like Daniel Jones has "those" games you know he has a strong future. The games where he is the major reason why the team scored a lot of points, 300+ yards, and mutiple TDs throwing in a game. You think that's sustainable and something you build on.

 

You can see him throwing the ball where only the receiver can catch it with anticipation and accuracy.

 

He had 4 of them in 12 starts as a rookie. Josh had 1 good game against Dallas and one half against the Texans. Jones's games were just superior as a passer.

 

Allen is not a traditional QB and I know we won 10 games but can anyone tell me if we didn't start Case Keenum we would have had the same record or better? I'm not sure, and that's the point I'm not sure if Allen is better than a journeyman in 2019. He has a lot to prove and he might make the jump.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

4 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

What JaCrispy is saying, and I agree, is that when a player like Daniel Jones has "those" games you know he has a strong future. The games where he is the major reason why the team scored a lot of points, 300+ yards, and mutiple TDs throwing in a game. You think that's sustainable and something you build on.

 

You can see him throwing the ball where only the receiver can catch it with anticipation and accuracy.

 

He had 4 of them in 12 starts as a rookie. Josh had 1 good game against Dallas and one half against the Texans. Jones's games were just superior as a passer.

 

Allen is not a traditional QB and I know we won 10 games but can anyone tell me if we didn't start Case Keenum we would have had the same record or better? I'm not sure, and that's the point I'm not sure if Allen is better than a journeyman in 2019. He has a lot to prove and he might make the jump.

Blah, blah, blah!  

 

 

[thebandit27]

9 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

What JaCrispy is saying, and I agree, is that when a player like Daniel Jones has "those" games you know he has a strong future. The games where he is the major reason why the team scored a lot of points, 300+ yards, and mutiple TDs throwing in a game. You think that's sustainable and something you build on.

 

You can see him throwing the ball where only the receiver can catch it with anticipation and accuracy.

 

He had 4 of them in 12 starts as a rookie. Josh had 1 good game against Dallas and one half against the Texans. Jones's games were just superior as a passer.

 

Allen is not a traditional QB and I know we won 10 games but can anyone tell me if we didn't start Case Keenum we would have had the same record or better? I'm not sure, and that's the point I'm not sure if Allen is better than a journeyman in 2019. He has a lot to prove and he might make the jump.

Um, yes, we were clearly and obviously better with Allen than we would’ve been with Case Keenum.

 

I keep saying this for context: Allen scores more TDs than all but 5 other QBs. That on its face can be written off as “yeah but”, until you look around the league and see that it’s by far the highest percentage of scoring from any team’s QB.

 

You want to talk about Daniel Jones, so let’s talk about the Giants. Their QBs scored a

combined 32 TDs; the rest of their team scored 10. That’s NOT good. By comparison, Lamar lead the NFL with 40 TDs; the rest of his team scored (get this) 27 TDs! So you can easily say that Jones didn’t exactly get much help.

 

Now compare that to Allen. He scored 29 TDs...the rest of the team scored 6. Total. All year.

 

He’s not holding back the offense; he is the offense.

 

Also, it’s just a bit disingenuous to say he had 1-1/2 good games all year. He had a great game in Miami, and played well against the Giants, Denver, Washington, and Miami @ home. He also had several other stretches of solid play throughout other games.

 

I don’t mind anyone being a skeptic, but honesty is pretty important in the Allen discussion (because it’s somewhat rare).

[JPP]

At this stage if you actually watched the games this past season he's obviously not an above average QB all around at this stage....but is good-decent......but has the potential no doubt....he will get even better next season.....work on that long ball and watch out!  I really dont see any regression at all....