Is Josh Allen A Good Quarterback??? (Good Film Breakdown)

[TheFunPolice]

Josh Allen was thought of as a very raw prospect who was going to need a couple years

 

Year 2 has CLEARLY been better than year 1. He just needs to make more of the routine throws. The deep stuff is just fine tuning. 

[Motorin']

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yikes.  Yeah, different things we want.

Yeah, I want my team to win the super bowl. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

From another lifelong Bills fan, we can play "who we should have drafted" until we shrivel up and die of resentment and self-hatred... Why does the "Is Josh Allen good enough" debate have to happen every gd week?  Ah, yes, it's because of "what could have been." Daryle Lamonica...

 

Well, since you bring it up, TJ Graham ahead of Russ Wilson.

 

The debate about whether Allen is good enough is going to happen regularly, certainly until we're winning at least half the games against good teams with good Ds.  I want what Beane and McDermott say they want to bring to Buffalo - a perennial contending team.  And for that, sorry, but Jeff Hostetler, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Nick Foles just aren't good enough.

 

So if what you're actually looking for is for the Bills to win one rifle-shot Superbowl in which meh offense that take a jump at the right time is carried by great defense,  "your kink is OK", but you are going to find yourself at odds here with people who want to see a return to regular good-quality quarterbacking.

 

I have no resentment.  I have no self hatred.  I have a love of American football and maybe I've built a little bit of understanding about it.  And frankly, it kind of bugs me when people attribute criticism or critique to "resentment and self-hatred" - I think it's weak sauce.

 

Quote

Maybe there can be one thread for "Post your Josh Allen criticisms / comparisons here." 

 

No

 

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Yeah, I want my team to win the super bowl. 

 

So do I, but not as a "one off rifle shot" of Trent Dilfer anomaly at the crest of a 10 year slough of occasional division and wildcard losses.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

This guys videos are typically awesome and very educational.  Great watch, thanks!

 

He really does a great job.

[Pokebball]

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Given the screen name and your join date, Imma guess you're a Wyoming guy who joined this board after we drafted Allen, amirite?

 

From the POV of a Wyoming fan, pulling for their guy to succeed in the NFL, I can see where it's looking great.  He's a starting QB in the playoffs!  He's shown some good, some bad, but solid improvement year 1 to year 2 and in most of the games we're in it with a chance to tie it or win it down to the final buzzer.  I can see where it looks great!

 

From the perspective of a lifelong Bills fan, knowing we could have drafted Watson or Mahomes a year before Allen, the viewpoint is a little bit different.  We're pleased by his progress year 1 to year 2 (most of us), but we're also frustrated at the missed throws (a bunch of us get frustrated at the wrong missed throws, I'm talking to you @JaCrispy) and bothered by the reversion to poor technique under pressure.  We love 4th quarter Josh, but we want to see him show up in the 1st quarter.

 

 

 

 

Reasonable expectations of a draft pick aren't any different in Wyoming than they are in New York.  My point is simply that, what were reasonable expectations of JAs progress to date?  Or perhaps you're arguing that expectations of life-long Bills fans are unreasonable?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

53 minutes ago, the skycap said:

By better I assume you mean more accurate? 

 

I'd like to know what he means because it's not at all clear to me either. 

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, the skycap said:

By better I assume you mean more accurate? 

Thats certainly part of it...but overall they are just consistently more productive QBs at this stage...

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Thats certainly part of it...but overall they are just consistently more productive QBs at this stage...

How so?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Reasonable expectations of a draft pick aren't any different in Wyoming than they are in New York.  My point is simply that, what were reasonable expectations of JAs progress to date?  Or perhaps you're arguing that expectations of life-long Bills fans are unreasonable?

 

I think perhaps they are, with all due respect.   What do you call reasonable expectations of a high first round draft pick QB in his 2nd year? 

 

Josh Allen has made more strides in many aspects of his play than I hoped for.  I'm impressed.  I'm the one who posts passing charts from NextGenStats showing improvement in  passer rating to almost all areas of the field.  No one can question his "clutch" gene, his team ethic or his competitive spirit.  But I'd like to see more consistent technique and decision making.  It's not all on him - he's being asked to operate a very complex and variable offense, and sometimes the play calling seems inappropriate to the ability of the OL and/or WRs to execute.  But sometimes it is on him.  Sometimes he's taking the high degree of difficulty  throw across the field or the "kill shot" to the endzone when the 5 yd completion is what we need or the check-down to Singletary would give us a high-probability to move the chains.  People here get all frothy about failure to hit a high degree of difficulty throw that would be a sure TD, but that's not the real problem.  The real problem is failing to see Brown open all alone across the middle because he's waiting for Beasley to get open.  The real problem isn't missing Knox for a sure TD, it's failing to take the high-percentage checkdown to Motor without a defender within 7 yds and only one of them, that would move the chains.

 

He needs to take a step.  He needs to either hit those kill shots reliably, or he needs to make different decisions.  And that's a tough thing, because many a QB who "just needs to" this or that (just needs to stop throwing to the other team, a la Fitzy or Winston) has over time, not been able to change.

[Motorin']

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, since you bring it up, TJ Graham ahead of Russ Wilson.

 

The debate about whether Allen is good enough is going to happen regularly, certainly until we're winning at least half the games against good teams with good Ds.  I want what Beane and McDermott say they want to bring to Buffalo - a perennial contending team.  And for that, sorry, but Jeff Hostetler, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Nick Foles just aren't good enough.

 

So if what you're actually looking for is for the Bills to win one rifle-shot Superbowl in which meh offense that take a jump at the right time is carried by great defense,  "your kink is OK", but you are going to find yourself at odds here with people who want to see a return to regular good-quality quarterbacking.

 

I have no resentment.  I have no self hatred.  I have a love of American football and maybe I've built a little bit of understanding about it.  And frankly, it kind of bugs me when people attribute criticism or critique to "resentment and self-hatred" - I think it's weak sauce.

 

 

No

 

 

So do I, but not as a "one off rifle shot" of Trent Dilfer anomaly at the crest of a 10 year slough of occasional division and wildcard losses.

I'd prefer Eli Manning and his two Super Bowls than Dan Marino's all HOF career. 

 

My point as it relates to Josh Allen is that a good majority of people here would have run Eli out of town in their demands for good quality quarter backing. 

 

I'm not sure what Josh's ceiling will be, and what his career arc will look like. And neither are you. But if anything in the last 20 years of Bills football that consisted of constant criticism and running people out of town thought me anything is that the team needs time, and cohesion.

 

And you're kidding yourself if you don't think resentment fuels much of the JA criticsm around here. It seems like in the minds of many that because we could have had Mahomes Josh will never be good enough, his bad plays will be magnified and people won't accept that he's needs time to continue to improve. 

 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Motorin'

[JaCrispy]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think perhaps they are, with all due respect.   What do you call reasonable expectations of a high first round draft pick QB in his 2nd year? 

 

Josh Allen has made more strides in many aspects of his play than I hoped for.  I'm impressed.  I'm the one who posts passing charts from NextGenStats showing improvement in  passer rating to almost all areas of the field.  No one can question his "clutch" gene, his team ethic or his competitive spirit.  But I'd like to see more consistent technique and decision making.  It's not all on him - he's being asked to operate a very complex and variable offense, and sometimes the play calling seems inappropriate to the ability of the OL and/or WRs to execute.  But sometimes it is on him.  Sometimes he's taking the high degree of difficulty  throw across the field or the "kill shot" to the endzone when the 5 yd completion is what we need or the check-down to Singletary would give us a high-probability to move the chains.  People here get all frothy about failure to hit a high degree of difficulty throw that would be a sure TD, but that's not the real problem.  The real problem is failing to see Brown open all alone across the middle because he's waiting for Beasley to get open.  The real problem isn't missing Knox for a sure TD, it's failing to take the high-percentage checkdown to Motor without a defender within 7 yds and only one of them, that would move the chains.

 

He needs to take a step.  He needs to either hit those kill shots reliably, or he needs to make different decisions.  And that's a tough thing, because many a QB who "just needs to" this or that (just needs to stop throwing to the other team, a la Fitzy or Winston) has over time, not been able to change.

Well said and insightful

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

I'd prefer Eli Manning and his two Super Bowls than Dan Marino's all HOF career. 

 

My point as it relates to Josh Allen is that a good majority of people here would have run Eli out of town in their demands for good quality quarter backing. 

 

I don't know about a "good majority" but certainly, there would be critics of a Manning-like guy, so that's a fair point.

 

But Manning was legitimately a very good QB for his team for a 9-10 year stretch, starting in his 2nd year.  He doesn't belong in the same bin of QBs with flash-in-the-pan guys like Jeff Hoestetler, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Nick Foles.  So if the point you're trying to make is that you'd rather have a consistently good QB on an overall talented, winning team than a great QB on a crap team, I can go with you, but you're standing in your own light with some of the comparisons you're making.

 

Marino is an interesting test case to consider.  He arguably should have had a couple Superbowls in the early '80s.  As a 2nd year QB in 1984, he and Don Shula came up against a more experienced, arguably greater QB in Joe Montana and an arguably greater coach in Bill Walsh.  Marino had the arm and could sling the rock.  Montana had the judgement, took care of the rock, moved the chains and was more selective about when he slung it.

 

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

I'm not sure what Josh's ceiling will be, and what his career arc will look like. And neither are you. But if anything in the last 20 years of Bills football that consisted of constant criticism and running people out of town thought me anything is that the team needs time, and cohesion.

 

And you're kidding yourself if you don't think resentment fuels much of the JA criticsm around here. It seems like in the minds of many that because we could have had Mahomes Josh will never be good enough, his bad plays will be magnified and he people won't accept that he's needs time to continue to improve.

 

I think we have better football discussion when people leave their assessment of other people's motivations ("kidding themselves") and psychological makeup at home.

 

And you do realize, that fans don't actually "run players out of town", yes?

[Motorin']

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't know about a "good majority" but certainly, there would be critics of a Manning-like guy, so that's a fair point.

 

But Manning was legitimately a very good QB for his team for a 9-10 year stretch, starting in his 2nd year.  He doesn't belong in the same bin of QBs with flash-in-the-pan guys like Jeff Hoestetler, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Nick Foles.  So if the point you're trying to make is that you'd rather have a consistently good QB on an overall talented, winning team than a great QB on a crap team, I can go with you, but you're standing in your own light with some of the comparisons you're making.

 

Marino is an interesting test case to consider.  He arguably should have had a couple Superbowls in the early '80s.  As a 2nd year QB in 1984, he and Don Shula came up against a more experienced, arguably greater QB in Joe Montana and an arguably greater coach in Bill Walsh.  Marino had the arm and could sling the rock.  Montana had the judgement, took care of the rock, moved the chains and was more selective about when he slung it.

 

 

I think we have better football discussion when people leave their assessment of other people's motivations ("kidding themselves") and psychological makeup at home.

 

And you do realize, that fans don't actually "run players out of town", yes?

 

Josh's 2nd season compares favorably to Eli's 2nd season. Eli threw for more yards, and a few more touchdowns. But he also threw more picks and had a lower QB rating that Josh on the year. Both teams were wild card contenders.

 

But Eli's performance didn't improve in his third year, and then regressed in his 4th year.

 

He won the Super Bowl in his 5th year. 

 

As far as motivations of others, good point. Perhaps it's the negative emoting that bothers me....

 

Much longer discussion on how people get run out of Buffalo, but the fan base and media have had a pretty strong effect on management decisions (particularly when those decissions seemed marketing driven) and have the ability to make life miserable for players and coaches. 

[Pokebball]

51 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think perhaps they are, with all due respect.   What do you call reasonable expectations of a high first round draft pick QB in his 2nd year? 

 

Josh Allen has made more strides in many aspects of his play than I hoped for.  I'm impressed.  I'm the one who posts passing charts from NextGenStats showing improvement in  passer rating to almost all areas of the field.  No one can question his "clutch" gene, his team ethic or his competitive spirit.  But I'd like to see more consistent technique and decision making.  It's not all on him - he's being asked to operate a very complex and variable offense, and sometimes the play calling seems inappropriate to the ability of the OL and/or WRs to execute.  But sometimes it is on him.  Sometimes he's taking the high degree of difficulty  throw across the field or the "kill shot" to the endzone when the 5 yd completion is what we need or the check-down to Singletary would give us a high-probability to move the chains.  People here get all frothy about failure to hit a high degree of difficulty throw that would be a sure TD, but that's not the real problem.  The real problem is failing to see Brown open all alone across the middle because he's waiting for Beasley to get open.  The real problem isn't missing Knox for a sure TD, it's failing to take the high-percentage checkdown to Motor without a defender within 7 yds and only one of them, that would move the chains.

 

He needs to take a step.  He needs to either hit those kill shots reliably, or he needs to make different decisions.  And that's a tough thing, because many a QB who "just needs to" this or that (just needs to stop throwing to the other team, a la Fitzy or Winston) has over time, not been able to change.

Josh remains a young QB that has a lot of growing yet to do.  Most all criticisms of him are valid and things he needs to work on.  There are many factors involved in evaluating a QB, including his size, his athleticism, his IQ, his experience, his arm, his legs, his character, etc.  Josh was weak on experience and development, but high on every other factor.  I don't think there was any evaluator in that year's draft that felt Josh wouldn't need a few year to develop.

 

So where does that leave us?  Is his development ahead, on, or behind schedule?  I wanted Josh to sit out all of last year.  I cringed every time Josh went in, behind what I considered to be one of the worst offensive lines in the league and with some of the worst WRs in the league.  I felt very bad for each of the three QBs last year, it was a lose-lose proposition for all of them.  As the year progressed, watching the #1 and #2 get eaten alive by the opposing Ds, I knew Josh was going to have to get in and play.  It was rough on the rookie and he had to grow up rather quickly, and perhaps in the wrong way.  His development didn't go as I had hoped.

 

Move to year #2, nine of the eleven starters are new.  Three are rookies.  Josh has now started 2 1/2 yrs, two for a G5 college and 1/2 yr behind perhaps the worst O line in the NFL.  What are my expectations?  My expectations are that these nine new starters take half a season to gel and learn to play with each other, all the while helping Josh to further develop as an NFL QB.  My expectation is that the rookie TE and rookie tackle learn quickly, in order to protect Allen's blindside.  My expectation is that his rookie RB protect Allen in the backfield and help make the offense a decent two dimensional offense, takin some of the pressure off of Allen.

 

What are reasonable expectations of Josh's development?  In these circumstances, he's exceeded mine.  If he was drafted by a team with better players around him, such as Kansas City, sure my expectations would be, and should be, much higher.  At the risk of offending you and other longtime Bill's fans, Josh was drafted into a very, very weak offense.  I am pretty dang excited watching it grow and am looking forward to the improvements to the offense that I hope happens this next year.

 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Pokebball

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Much longer discussion on how people get run out of Buffalo, but the fan base and media have had a pretty strong effect on management decisions (particularly when those decissions seemed marketing driven) and have the ability to make life miserable for players and coaches. 

 

I think there legitimately was a period of time where team decisions were being driven by marketing, meaning fan and media perceptions.

 

One thing I do devoutly believe at this time is that those days are gone.

[Solomon Grundy]

I said it first, Eli Manning is a HOF QB!!

[Motorin']

31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think there legitimately was a period of time where team decisions were being driven by marketing, meaning fan and media perceptions.

 

One thing I do devoutly believe at this time is that those days are gone.

 

Times have changed for the better organizational. Fan and media behavior is another question. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Motorin' said:

Times have changed for the better organizational. Fan and media behavior is another question. 

 

Ha!  Well, some think media behavior has gone too far and is being somehow "stifled" or "controlled" by the Pegulas.

 

Having listened to media coverage in the St Louis area, the KC area, and the NE and Baltimore areas, I tend to believe that the media has more or less just been brought into line with more typical, professional expectations and are still feistier than most places.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Pokebball said:

Josh remains a young QB that has a lot of growing yet to do.  Most all criticisms of him are valid and things he needs to work on.  There are many factors involved in evaluating a QB, including his size, his athleticism, his IQ, his experience, his arm, his legs, his character, etc.  Josh was weak on experience and development, but high on every other factor.  I don't think there was any evaluator in that year's draft that felt Josh wouldn't need a few year to develop.

 

So where does that leave us?  Is his development ahead, on, or behind schedule?  I wanted Josh to sit out all of last year.  I cringed every time Josh went in, behind what I considered to be one of the worst offensive lines in the league and with some of the worst WRs in the league.  I felt very bad for each of the three QBs last year, it was a lose-lose proposition for all of them.  As the year progressed, watching the #1 and #2 get eaten alive by the opposing Ds, I knew Josh was going to have to get in and play.  It was rough on the rookie and he had to grow up rather quickly, and perhaps in the wrong way.  His development didn't go as I had hoped.

 

Move to year #2, nine of the eleven starters are new.  Three are rookies.  Josh has now started 2 1/2 yrs, two for a G5 college and 1/2 yr behind perhaps the worst O line in the NFL.  What are my expectations?  My expectations are that these nine new starters take half a season to gel and learn to play with each other, all the while helping Josh to further develop as an NFL QB.  My expectation is that the rookie TE and rookie tackle learn quickly, in order to protect Allen's blindside.  My expectation is that his rookie RB protect Allen in the backfield and help make the offense a decent two dimensional offense, takin some of the pressure off of Allen.

 

What are reasonable expectations of Josh's development?  In these circumstances, he's exceeded mine.  If he was drafted by a team with better players around him, such as Kansas City, sure my expectations would be, and should be, much higher.  At the risk of offending you and other longtime Bill's fans, Josh was drafted into a very, very weak offense.  I am pretty dang excited watching it grow and am looking forward to the improvements to the offense that I hope happens this next year.

 

 

Good post, Pokebball.   A lot to unpack there.   First, a couple of nits (or maybe I don't understand some of the way you're looking at it) - Josh has now started 1 1/2+ years at this point?  Or are you looking at it from the POV of August and adding in college?  Likewise not sure what you're meaning by #1 and #2 in your 2nd para - Josh went into the season as #2 and became #1 after half a game when Peterman melted down, the rest of the season the QBs were backups to Allen who played 4 1/2 games when Josh was injured halfway through game 6.

 

Further nits: Allen's blindside is being protected by a 3rd year LT, not a rookie.  The rookie's on the R, not the blindside.  We also have a great blocking TE in Smith.  It's a personnel and set decision that has led to a bad rookie TE matchup.   Our rookie RB has actually done a pretty decent job with protection.

 

There's no offense (ha!) saying the Bills offense was downright offensive last year and is still arguably sub-par.  It's my major concern about Beane and his staff.  Of concern is that they did put resources into trying to improve the offense since McDermott took over and through Allen's 1st year - 2nd round pick on Zay Jones, trade a 3rd for a former 1st rounder in Kelvin Benjamin, trade for a former 1st rounder for Corey Coleman and his $3.5M guaranteed, trade for Jordan Matthews, sign a bunch of vets - it's that none of those worked out respectably.   I give them props to say this off season's signings have worked out much much better, but we're still missing pieces.  The sure-handed TE.   The possession receiver.  At least 1 piece on OL, maybe 2.  

 

So like I said, a lot to unpack: what are reasonable expectations of ANY QB operating a complex offense with so many new pieces?  what are reasonable expectations of Josh Allen, a QB drafted high in the 1st round with known development needs?  are those changed by having thrown him to the wolves last year behind bailing wire and scraps?  are they changed by his draft position, which was out of his control and for which he was not responsible? 

 

Here's where I am.  I'm not worried about Josh's completion percentage or YPG.  I think it's impacted by drops and by guys who can't bring in the tough catches we see around the league.  I'm not worried about failing to hit low percentage deep throws.  Those come with experience.  I'm not worried about being slow to read sometimes - you can see the wheels turning between his ears at times.  That's something that either speeds up with experience, or doesn't, but he's taking the right approach to process what he sees instead of pulling the trigger and slinging the ball all over (and throwing lots of picks), because that latter seems to be a hard habit to break.  I'm not worried about "struggling" against man to man because part of what struggles against physical man to man coverage is our WR who are all small and can't out-muscle the defenders.  We have had catchable balls that would have tied a couple games that were matchups our guys just can't win.

 

I'm worried about 2 things.  One is, while I was very pleased and impressed at his improved technique at the start of this season, it has seemed to regress more than I'd like as the season wears on and he's playing tougher defenses which apply more pressure.  The second is decision making.  There are plays where he has sufficient time, and he has a gimme throw, and he "goes for the gusto" where he needs to move the chains.  I think that's the hero ball "if you want it done right, you got to do it yourself!" attitude that he had to have at Reedley and Wyoming, and it only got reinforced by last year's offensive debacle.  

It's analogous (to me) to something OL coach Bobby Johnson said that there will be times where you're asked to block one on one against a really good defender, and when that time comes, you've got to do it.  There are going to be times when Josh is asked to make a decision and make a play under pressure against a really good defense in order to move the chains and sustain a drive and when that time comes, he's got to do it.

 

So that's where he's not as far as I expect a high-first-round draft pick in his second year to be.  I expect him to be able to see a wide open RB in the flat without the help of a Snow Pole and flag.  I expect him to be able to see a wide-open John Brown across the middle.  And when he sees it, he's got to hit it.

[Dr. Who]

5 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

That is a fair point about playing to the defense... however I do not believe Allen is a good QB YET...for my own personal definition, I will know when he becomes a good QB because I will have confidence that he can make any throw when he needs to (the two crucial misses to Knox against the Pats was not that...a good Qb hits at least one of those) and I will have confidence that he can rise to the occasion against the better teams in the league which he has yet to do, in fact he seems to play his worst.

 

when you have a good QB on your hands you KNOW it...although it is still possible I just am not convinced yet- I do not have that confidence the Hawks fans have with Wilson or KC fans have with Mahomes...those fans have confidence every time their team takes the field their QB is going to be better than the one across the way...So when Josh finally arrives I will feel the same way, but not yet.

I think there is some semantic drift involved here. What you are calling good appears to be past the threshold of established franchise qb. I am calling good adequate starter with upside. I agree that there is a gap between where Allen is and the franchise qb we all hope he will become.