Buffalo Bills & Drops

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Based on the fact that we had this problem last year, and that all four of those guys are new to the team this year- makes you wonder how much of that is on coaching?

 

also, wonder if Allen puts too much heat on the ball. Though I remember a lot of drops that weren’t thrown hard. 

 

I'm sure Allen's "heat" is part of it, but as John Brown said, need to crank up the settings on the Juggs and adjust.

 

I'm also "in" with those who think that a lot of the drops are when the rookies commit the classic mistake of looking downfield before they secure the ball, I'm just getting frustrated that we're at Week 14 and they haven't changed with that.

[LABILLBACKER]

Knox and Singletary have struggled all year catching great throws by Josh. Duke has 7 targets, 6 catches, 0 drops. Just saying this staff better start coaching or make some changes. Either way, I don't care.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Pokebball said:

I thought he turned his head up field too soon, taking his eyes off the ball

That’s been at the heart of most of his drops. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, JK Fan said:

I disagree it is on Allen.  Proffessional football players are paid to catch the ball.  Allen's passes are not any harder than other NFL QB's.  If they get their hands on it they should catch it.

Your so right. This is not about the wind or Josh's velocity. Catch the damn ball or get cut. That's what Belichick does.

[billsbackto81]

2 hours ago, HOUSE said:

It's been windy

And sunny.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

It's not just the drops. It's the NFL.  You need players to make spectacular catches every week.  You see it all over the league whether it is diving, one handed, or toe tap catches.  You can forgive a drop from time to time if they make up for it with an amazing play.  The diving TD catch by Brown was an example from last week.  Need more of those plays.  

And as many have said on here, they need a big target WR.  Yes Sammy was hurt but he had great hands and was the big body type of WR this team needs now.  Not adovcating for Sammy coming back, but a player of his size, speed and hands is what is needed.

[MAJBobby]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Not that it's good, but pro.football.reference gives our team drop rate as 6.4% - which is leading the league, by a good chalk. 

Last year we were mid-league with 4.8%

 

I am not sure, but I think Knox with his 20% drop rate may be a good part of that increase.  Singletary 10.8% also not good.  Some people attribute this to being rookies, as many times the drop is on easier passes where they have a ton of room - they transition to thinking about the run before they've finished "looking in" the ball.

 

But something is off with the calculation of 11% drops.  It's simply not that high.

One calculated off of completions. The other off attempts. 
 

it should be calculated off of attempts. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

One calculated off of completions. The other off attempts. 
 

it should be calculated off of attempts. 

 

Agreed!  If that's what was done, it's not right.  A drop by definition is not a completion - therefore it's an attempt and must be looked at in the context of attempts.

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Agreed!  If that's what was done, it's not right.  A drop by definition is not a completion - therefore it's an attempt and must be looked at in the context of attempts.

yeah I think PFF is right here. I haven’t done the calculation myself in a couple games but Bills have been right around a 6-7% drop rate all season using attempts (team) and targets (individual) - Knox leads Still in case people are wondering 

[junior]

2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Based on the fact that we had this problem last year, and that all four of those guys are new to the team this year- makes you wonder how much of that is on coaching?

 

also, wonder if Allen puts too much heat on the ball. Though I remember a lot of drops that weren’t thrown hard. 

 

Let's not forget that the talent at WR/TE last year was sub-par to say the least. Among the group Allen had to work with last year:

• 3 are no longer in the NFL (Kelvin Benjamin, Andre Holmes, and Jeremy Kerley)
• 1 was traded for a 5th rounder 2 years from now (Zay Jones)
• 1 is now on our practice squad (Ray Ray McCloud)

Throw in Charles Clay, Jason Croom, and Logan Thomas at TE, and I think it's a bit early to label the # of a drops as a coaching problem as opposed to a talent problem last year.

[Billsfan1972]

59 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

Yeah, OP comparing the Bills to Florida and Dome teams with GOAT QBs is what's pathetic.   Go get me some useful comparison data and come back.    Everyone bitching after a loss and then buying SB tickets after a win. 

 

Dawson Knox and Motor are huge breaths of fresh air at those positions.   They're rookies who will get even better at their positions.

 

Go Beane.   Great drafting, seven solid starters in 2 drafts.  Coach 'em up McD.  These are early days.  

 

Trust the Process. 

With that screen name we know your allegiance, geez can you be a little more obvious? 

 

I just chose two random teams that throw the ball (oh yea a lot play in domes & warm weather too).  Can go through any teams with established QB's.  We aren't talking about Allen's bad passes (which can happen due to bad weather & conditions), we're talking drops, which usually are on pretty easy passes.  

 

Tell me what teams you want (using starting QBs that have played the majority of the season)? 

 

Philly 25 of 307 (yes just used drops/catches) 8.1% (and injuries galore to receivers)

Cincy - 23 of 290 7.9%

Chic - 7.9%

GB - 15 of 287 5.2%....

 

Shall I continue?

[whatdrought]

Just now, junior12thman92 said:

 

Let's not forget that the talent at WR/TE last year was sub-par to say the least. Among the group Allen had to work with last year:

• 3 are no longer in the NFL (Kelvin Benjamin, Andre Holmes, and Jeremy Kerley)
• 1 was traded for a 5th rounder 2 years from now (Zay Jones)
• 1 is now on our practice squad (Ray Ray McCloud)

Throw in Charles Clay, Jason Croom, and Logan Thomas at TE, and I think it's a bit early to label the # of a drops as a coaching problem as opposed to a talent problem last year.

 

right, but now the talent level has gone up and the problem persists. Some of that is just normal, but some of it could have something to do with coaching emphasis... Hard to say. 

[Billsfan1972]

8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

yeah I think PFF is right here. I haven’t done the calculation myself in a couple games but Bills have been right around a 6-7% drop rate all season using attempts (team) and targets (individual) - Knox leads Still in case people are wondering 

Doesn't matter....  To me a completed pass is a catch that could & is made.  A drop, is a pass that is deemed easily caught, that was dropped.  

 

BTW on top of it all, Buffalo doesn't throw an awful lot....  Josh is 27th in attempts/game

Edited December 14, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Doesn't matter....  To me a completed pass is a catch that could & is made.  A drop, is a pass that is deemed easily caught, that was dropped.  

 

BTW on top of it all, Buffalo doesn't throw an awful lot.... 

but see it does matter. Drop Rates are on all attempts. Not completions. So you are artificially inflating the number here for no reason. 

[Billsfan1972]

17 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

but see it does matter. Drop Rates are on all attempts. Not completions. So you are artificially inflating the number here for no reason. 

Semantics.....  You are however wrong.....  The actual correct # is Dawson Knox has  had 35 catchable balls (26 catches + 9 drops)....  So yes drop rate is 9/(26+9) = 25.7%

And since all the other teams have more completions, the Bills receivers actually will be worse.

 

Bills are 28/280 = 10%

Cincy 23/313 = 7.3

Thus Buffalo drops 36% more passes then Cincy, 76% more then TB, 41.5% more then NO and a 101% more then GB!!!!

Edited December 14, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[Scott7975]

13 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

but see it does matter. Drop Rates are on all attempts. Not completions. So you are artificially inflating the number here for no reason. 

 

I don't know.  Im back and forth on this.  Your posts are convincing me but then I remember what I thought in the first place.  I think it should be based on completable balls.  While I agree with what you are saying... I also agree with my own line of thinking which is... if you can't catch the ball in the first place then you can't drop the ball either.  You can only drop balls that you are able to catch.  Therefor to me, the number of drops should be added to the number of catches.  Then that number should divide into the number of drops.  I think you are artificially lowering the number.

 

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Scott7975

[Billsfan1972]

14 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I don't know.  Im back and forth on this.  Your posts are convincing me but then I remember what I thought in the first place.  I think it should be based on completable balls.  While I agree with what you are saying... I also agree with my own line of thinking which is... if you can't catch the ball in the first place then you can't drop the ball either.  You can only drop balls that you are able to catch.  Therefor to me, the number of drops should be added to the number of catches.  Then that number should divide into the number of drops.  I think you are artificially lowering the number.

 

 

Exactly right & I corrected.....  Uncatchable is no chance, but to be called a drop it has to be VERY Catchable.  For instance Allen threw a pass that hit a sliding Mackenzie in the endzone for a TD last week that was dropped, but was not ruled a drop.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[BuffaloMatt]

Got them out of the way early in the season. 

[Augie]

We have identified an awesome opportunity for improvement!  ?

 

Knox is a a big part of the total %, and I think (and pray) he will come around because I love his upside. Just let the game slow down and look the ball all the way in. As pointed out, it’s not like he even caught a lot of balls in college, and now it’s happening at a much faster speed. Same with Singletary....know you belong out there and let it slow down. It should get better with focus and experience. If it doesn’t, we can start another “fire everybody” thread. Those are always helpful! 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Based on the fact that we had this problem last year, and that all four of those guys are new to the team this year- makes you wonder how much of that is on coaching?

 

also, wonder if Allen puts too much heat on the ball. Though I remember a lot of drops that weren’t thrown hard. 

This is why some fans underestimate. Some qbs throw more catchable balls. I always feel drops is a stat that people want to lean on for Allen.  He has never been a particularly accurate since high school.  So either he consistently plays with terrible brick hand wrs or he doesn’t throw the most catchable balls.  I bet there are plenty of rocket armed qbs who have a lot of drops.  The difference between those guys and say Mahomes is Mahomes has excellent touch on his balls (sounds dirty).  

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Do you watch other football games?  Not just the NFL but also in college you will see all sorts of receivers catching balls that are low, high, or to one side or the other. 

 

But from my vantage point, in the drops I've seen the ball was mostly on the money and didn't have excessive velocity. 

 

It's actually stunning that the Bills have FOUR receivers with the most drops in the top 45 players with drops in the NFL.  Considering the total # of receivers available to include in this list this is an amazing stat.

 

I agree with others that have noted that both Singleterry & Knox have little college experience in pass receiving.  And Beasley & Brown may not be used to the tight windows Allen puts the ball. 

 

But the reality is that this stat more then any other IMO has contributed significantly to our offensive struggles.

 

 

Seems like you’re passing the blame from Allen. I remember numerous crossing patterns where the ball is behind the receiver that they manage to get their hands on (but for any receiver going reaching behind while going in the opposite direction is extremely hard) that might count as a drop.  
 

allen has improved in the underneath passing area but he still isn’t consistently good enough.