PFF's anti-Josh Allen agenda continues, calls Duck Hodges "the better QB"

[ProcessYaDigg]

I love all the bashing and disrespect our players get, just as much as I love all the praises.  Doubters equals motivation for us.  Just like most of the media predicts us to lose this weekend, we'll prove them wrong, yet again.

[Big Turk]

Yup...so good the Steelers effectively try and hide him while he is on the field.

 

Dude has played in 5 games and started 3 and has a grand total of 80 total pass attempts.  He has only attempted more than 20 passes once(21), and in the other 2 starts had 19 and 20 passes.  The Steelers obviously don't feel he is a better QB as they are attempting to win games by holding other teams off the scoreboard and by putting it in their QB's hands as little as possible. It's working but you can't be successful doing that forever...eventually they are going to have to let him play, especially if they make it to the playoffs.

Edited December 13, 2019 by matter2003

[mjt328]

When it comes to young Quarterbacks, it's not about how you start.  It's about how you finish.

 

Some guys come into the NFL with big flaws in mechanics, very little understanding of how to read a defense, and almost no experience running a professional-type offense.  But they have elite-level physical skills, and coaches believe they can develop them into something great.  Other guys come out of college very polished/developed as passers, and experience some immediate success when inserted into a basic/stripped-down offense.  But they have very little upside, and generally crash after defensive coordinators get a little bit of game film on them.

 

You will notice that NFL scouts and GMs seem to like the "big-upside" guys earlier in the draft, hoping they can eventually turn those guys into franchise QBs.  They don't care so much about how good a player is on Day 1 of training camp, and more about how good he's going to be at the end of Year 4.  The guys who come into the league "pro-ready" and little room for improvement are usually Day 3 picks (Rounds 4-7), because the professionals know they will ultimately max-out as backups in the league.

 

This year, we have seen a huge number of QB injuries.  So lots of backup-level young guys (Kyle Allen, Brandon Allen, Gardner Minshew, Duck Hodges, Mason Rudolph, David Blough, etc.) have gotten a chance to come off the bench and shine to some extent.  Offensive coordinators simplify the gameplan to focus on what they do well.  Defensive coordinators have no idea what to expect.  And for a few weeks, they look surprisingly good.  But then opponents figure out their limitations, and everything falls apart.  A great example is Kyle Allen.  After Cam Newton went down, he started with a 4-0 record.  But then defenses figured out that he couldn't do much beyond throwing screen passes to Christian McCaffrey, and the Panthers have gone 1-6 since that great start.  You are seeing the start of a similar trend with Minshew.

 

Whether we are talking Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, etc. - it's simply way too early to make a determination on ANY of these guys.  Last year, Mayfield was setting rookie passing records.  This year he's got 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.  Daniel Jones looked brilliant early in the season, and now the New York media is wondering if the Giants should consider drafting a QB again in 2020.  Josh Allen started with nothing but physical talent, and has improved dramatically.  But if he can't overcome his struggles against heavy blitzing, he's ultimately not going to be the answer for us.  Lamar Jackson will probably win MVP this year, but it's only a matter of time before defenses figure out how to keep him in the pocket.  

 

 

[colin]

the biggest statistical issue with allen is he throws too much in bad games.

 

i know the clever take on the above is to say that means he's bad, because he's throwing a lot leading to bad games, but the reality is the NE, PHL, and BALT games both QBs had struggle stats, wind or just the nature of the game lead to some bad results for both QBs, and we played some salty Ds.

 

the other issue, and this is a big issue to be correct, is Allen and our whole O are kinda slow starters/especially in the third quarter.

 

garbage play to start in our first three games was followed up by big comebacks, and we were in the midst of one when allen got KO'd vs NE (i still think we win that game if they let him back in).  in games where we are in control, we go into 4 minute mode with about 20 minutes left, so we don't get the nice stat padding that can come with pushing the pace when ahead.

I should point out this is in contrast to tyrod, who PFF anointed the second coming, who was great at avoiding turnovers because he had no green light, and while he had some insane tendency to never lead a come back (i think had like one single win when down in the 4th or down by more than like 5 at the half) always had some nice garbage time completions and TD, and was unwilling to throw aggressive balls to bring the team back.

[All_Pro_Bills]

The Bills 3 remaining games are against defenses that love to bring pressure on the QB.  JA has had trouble dealing with that and in fact it's been an approach defenses have taken against the Bills offense for as long as I can remember.   

 

What Allen needs to do is play more under control, improve his read and recognition, and make the correct throw when the defense brings pressure.  Minimize the scramble drill plays, avoid taking losses, and don't put his linemen into situations where holding might be called.   

 

Like most here I've watched every snap of every Bills game this season.  I think this game being on the road is an advantage.  Josh seems to get too emotionally jacked up for the home games.  That's okay for a lot of position players but the QB has to keep his composure.  

 

I expect the light comes on against the Steelers and he comes through big on Sunday night.      

[DCOrange]

Assuming most people didn't seek out the actual article that Talbot's excerpt was pulled from; it's basically two PFF guys; one guy makes his case for his Vegas pick and the other guy does a counterpoint. In this case, the guy was making his case for the Steelers. I'm not sure if the article was edited after the fact or if Talbot removed the text himself, but the writer mentioned that it's obviously a very small sample size for Hodges so far, but he apparently has the highest grade in the league from a clean pocket the last two weeks.

 

Not mentioned in the article, there's a side-by-side comparison of Allen and Hodges in one of their other articles with the following numbers (Allen on the left, Hodges on the right):

 

Passer rating when clean: 98.8 vs. 111.5

Passer rating under pressure: 54.2 vs. 76.0

Big Time Throw %: 1.98% vs. 4.72%

Turnover Worthy Play %: 4.55% vs. 1.89%

 

On the flipside, Talbot didn't include the guy making the case against Pittsburgh, which I honestly think was way worse as he was legitimately just making fun of Bills fans instead of making an argument in favor of them:

 

Quote

Counterpoint (EE): This is for all you doubters out there (yeah, I’m talking to you, PFF_Steve).  All of you who think that throwing the ball accurately is more important in today’s NFL than having the arm strength to send the ball clear out of bounds in those stiff Buffalo winds. You idiots who don’t appreciate Mose Schrute’s brother frolicking through defenses on long-yardage plays en route to leading the league’s 26th-best offense. Those of you who mock and ridicule the decision to draft an ineffective college passer from the Mountain West more than 20 spots ahead of a Heisman Trophy winner than may soon be the NFL’s MVP.  THIS ONE’S FOR YOU.

Sure, the Steelers have what may very well be the league’s best defense.  Yeah, they may be getting back one of the league’s most dynamic young receivers to join a stable full of emerging talent that also includes Diontae Johnson and James Washington.  Yes, we know Heinz Field is one of the league’s premier home-field advantages. None of that is going to matter Sunday night when our boss slides into view, because Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is on a roll.  Only 31 starting quarterbacks have a better negatively graded throw rate than Allen. This is the game they drafted him for.

 

Edited December 13, 2019 by DCOrange

[Bray Wyatt]

Well they also said they would be getting Juju back this week, seems like they really know what they are talking about

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Well they also said they would be getting Juju back this week, seems like they really know what they are talking about

It seems like a pretty ***** article overall, but that part isn't really their fault. He was supposed to be back this week up until this morning.

[Bray Wyatt]

Just now, DCOrange said:

It seems like a pretty ***** article overall, but that part isn't really their fault. He was supposed to be back this week up until this morning.

 

They give shoddy analysis I give shoddy commentary! 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Mango said:

I agree with you to a certain extent. I would much rather have Josh than Duck moving forward. I think Josh is a better QB because of his legs, his arm strength, and his intangibles.  But to play devils advocate, I think we all wish that in the Baltimore game Josh took some more safe underneath stuff, and that his bombs were 50/50 balls (which they weren't). You don't get bonus points for missing more difficult throws vs. completing easier passes. 

 

There's no question that we wish Josh took more of the easy passes early on in the Ravens game.  To be fair, it has to be acknowledged that none of us know why (we only know that the passes were there, at least some of the time) and that his receivers, at times, have been helping him leave passing yards on the field by dropping catchable balls. 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I will also repeat that when we see the ball drop 5 yds beyond the WR, we don't know why; was it overthrown, or did the WR (for whatever reason) run a different or slower route than he did in practice?  It's been acknowledged that the Ravens DB were slowing Brown by getting their hands on him and pressing his pads.  In his post-game presser, Brown actually commented "they got away with a lot" as far as PI (which you don't like to hear from your #1 WR),  but he's correct, and it can be seen a lot on the film.  And frankly, where Allen clearly had a pocket and time on a couple throws and missed Brown, the contribution from route running puzzles me - there's one puzzling throw across the middle where Brown is open all the way, but seems to slow up as Allen prepares to throw to him.  It looks to me as though Allen's throw is placed where he would be if he didn't slow up and also to thread between defenders if it misses, which it did.    (Allen's footwork also sucks, but I've long given up on trying to figure out how that contributes.  Allen zings stuff in there when his feet look awful and misses when his technique looks good to me, I'm at DammifIknow by now)

 

Year in and year out, we fans scoff at the drop numbers that show up saying "he drops more than that!" and yet even with very conservative scoring of "what is a drop?", Josh Allen is leading the league in drops right now at 6.8%.  His TE, and the TE is usually the most sure-handed receiver on the team, is leading the league with 20% drops.

 

So to be the Devil's Advocate to your Devil's Advocate, I have to say that while I too, wish that Josh took more easy completions in the Ravens game, overall the performance in that and other games is NOT all on him, and measurably less so than on some other teams.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Mango said:

I don't think people want or expect him to throw 300 yards week in or week out. Or at least I don't, you become too one dimensional all the time. Rather would like to see him own a game if we do need to go there in a shoot out. 

 

Not to rehash old wounds/threads, but Josh is pushing pretty low on the list of starts to 300 yards. Right now he is at 24. The only QB's since 1998 who lasted 6 years and/or had 20 starts in the league who failed to hit a 300 yard game by now are:

(...)

Again- hitting early doesn't mean anything, but it seems hitting late is not great.

 

I understand your point, but frankly, it's just one of a tall stack of metrics people piled up pre-draft to say Josh Allen would never make it in the NFL and post-draft to say he'll never succeed.

 

I'm not saying he'll succeed - either he will or he won't - but if he does, I think he's going to be such an outlier that it's just a waste of time to worry about this or that metric.

 

I never thought he'd improve his completion percentage or his short/intermediate passing accuracy to the extent that he did between last year and this.

[26TrapDraw]

12 hours ago, the skycap said:

Prove them wrong Josh!!

He didn't answer the bell against the Ravens very well. I won't make excuses for him dropped passes etc. Blah blah. Bottom Line he didn't play well. He has to match the Defense's intensity . For that matter in watching the Ravens O last night showed me how the offense was Taylor made for Jackson. Wish I could say that for Buffalo's O. Daboll tries too hard. K.I.S.S

[MJS]

I have to say that PFF's take on Josh Allen has definately decreased my opinion of them. I used to like them a little bit, but now I'm confused how they could so consistently miss on a player.

[CincyBillsFan]

10 hours ago, Kiva said:

After last game, comments like this are warranted. You never know which Josh we are going to get, he has to be smarter and more consistent. He really can’t have anymore games like the Ravens. It hurts his reputation tremendously. He has a lot to prove. 

 

Which half are you talking about Kiva?  Because in the 2nd half, with the game on the line Allen played very well.  Several big drops and a missed PI call by the refs cost the Bills the game.  But it's wrong to claim that Allen had a bad game when anyone watching the game could see he played well in the 2nd half.

 

This is why the eye test is every bit as good as the numbers test in evaluating a QB.  Last night we watched Darnold throw for 75 yards & a TD after the Ravens had surged to a 42 - 13 lead.  Yet in the flawed analysis of PFF garbage time numbers will be thrown into the equation.   

[Koko78]

13 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

 Apologies if already posted.

 

Seems like the PFF author is just being edgy an ass to drive traffic to his article.

[CincyBillsFan]

10 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

They don’t ask much of him.  He’s averaged 16 attempts per game and his WRs are typical Steelers WRs speed, RAC, hands, contested and sell out catches....must be nice. 

 

Bingo!

 

One of the reasons there often is a "sophomore slump" among fast starting young QB's is that they're asked to do a lot more after their rookie season.  It's obvious to anyone watching that Dabold expects Allen to take on a much bigger load in calling pass protections, diagnosing defenses and getting to his 3rd read.  Combine this with the fact that every D coordinator now has over a year of film on Allen it's not surprising that elite defenses coached by elite D-coordinators can confuse Allen at times.

 

The next 2 years will tell the real story as Allen gains more experience and the Bill's surround him with better offensive talent.  Remember we're only about half way into a complete rebuild of the offense.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Sundancer said:

This is a professional sportswriter? Someone who pays the mortgage writing about sports for a living? 

 

Or a guy living in his mom's basement saying who says stuff on the Internet like us? 

 

Seems like the latter. 

 

I think PFF does make a living at this point, but their income is primarily from fantasy football.  They live on stats and metrics.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

Let's see what happens after Hodges has a few more starts...always much easier to look good when teams have very little tape on you. Doubt he is going to look good this game.

 

Yep.  Remember how Kyle Allen & Gardner Minshew hadn't thrown an INT after their first few games.  Well the tape came in and now all a DE has to do is yell BOO at them and they fumble.  Here are their total TD/TO numbers:

 

Minshew = 15/12

Kyle Allen = 18/19

 

I'll use these numbers to predict what happens to Duck in the future.

 

 

Edited December 13, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, BeefCurtns said:

He didn't answer the bell against the Ravens very well. I won't make excuses for him dropped passes etc. Blah blah. Bottom Line he didn't play well. He has to match the Defense's intensity . For that matter in watching the Ravens O last night showed me how the offense was Taylor made for Jackson. Wish I could say that for Buffalo's O. Daboll tries too hard. K.I.S.S

 

I can't disagree with the "Daboll tries too hard" at times thing.

 

My take on the Ravens game is "plenty of blame to go around".  The Ravens D brought their A game - relative to last night vs the Jets it looked as though they were playing at half speed and with half intensity.  Our protections failed spectacularly at times.   Our WR didn't get open and didn't make contested catches (I won't make excuses for them uncalled holding and PI blah blah), not to mention catches that hit them in the hands. 

 

And yep, Allen didn't play well, left easy completions on the field in favor of taking shots on 6-7 plays (depending upon how you define "shots" and "easy"), and failed to throw the ball away vs taking a sack on a couple key plays.

 

Everyone on offense needs to be better.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Assuming most people didn't seek out the actual article that Talbot's excerpt was pulled from; it's basically two PFF guys; one guy makes his case for his Vegas pick and the other guy does a counterpoint. In this case, the guy was making his case for the Steelers. I'm not sure if the article was edited after the fact or if Talbot removed the text himself, but the writer mentioned that it's obviously a very small sample size for Hodges so far, but he apparently has the highest grade in the league from a clean pocket the last two weeks.

 

Not mentioned in the article, there's a side-by-side comparison of Allen and Hodges in one of their other articles with the following numbers (Allen on the left, Hodges on the right):

 

Passer rating when clean: 98.8 vs. 111.5

Passer rating under pressure: 54.2 vs. 76.0

Big Time Throw %: 1.98% vs. 4.72%

Turnover Worthy Play %: 4.55% vs. 1.89%

 

On the flipside, Talbot didn't include the guy making the case against Pittsburgh, which I honestly think was way worse as he was legitimately just making fun of Bills fans instead of making an argument in favor of them:

 

 

This made my jaw drop