DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 is this one of those let me show you how the stats prove chances are slim to win for the buffalo bills kind of thread? I always enjoy reading how a team has been solid for 45 years and their defense has been playing lights out and it's a brutal outlook for the bills who are facing a win and your in game. keep the negative forces alive as it makes it that much sweeter if they win? even if they lose I know they'll show up. did anyone think they would of showed up on turkey day as they did? play the ravens as close as they did even with a poor outing from JA? this team isn't going to quit nor are they going to give a damn about how solid the stillers have been or any stats showing how their chances are slim. 1
dickleyjones Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, MDH said: I’m not a fan of statistics that are kept in secret either. That said, the point still stands. These 3 Ds are all top 4-5 in the league by most metrics. is that true? DVOA has no published calculation method? if so, what a joke.
Big Turk Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, dickleyjones said: is that true? DVOA has no published calculation method? if so, what a joke. Basically it tries to rank defenses based on the quality of the opponents offenses and the results so that everyone has a "neutral" basis for a ranking. So for instance, doing very well on D against a great offense will help you a lot more than doing very well on D against a terrible offense. Similarly you will not be penalized as much for giving up more yards/points to good O's versus doing the same to bad O's.
MDH Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, dickleyjones said: is that true? DVOA has no published calculation method? if so, what a joke. Yep, it's a proprietary metric and they haven't, and won't, release exactly how it's calculated. They give a general, "this is what's involved" statement but not specifics. If I don't know how a statistic is calculated how on earth can I know if I think it's valuable?
whatdrought Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, matter2003 said: Basically it tries to rank defenses based on the quality of the opponents offenses and the results so that everyone has a "neutral" basis for a ranking. So for instance, doing very well on D against a great offense will help you a lot more than doing very well on D against a terrible offense. Similarly you will not be penalized as much for giving up more yards/points to good O's versus doing the same to bad O's. Doesn't this become somewhat circular if they're using their own determination for what's good or bad to begin with?
row_33 Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 25 minutes ago, dickleyjones said: is that true? DVOA has no published calculation method? if so, what a joke. look how jackasses attack people over baseball's WAR without a solid formula....
billsfanmd07 Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 If the Bills lose with JA at QB to a team with an undrafted QB then we have a real problem. I think we win by 10 though.
Meatloaf63 Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said: In general, I do not like the idea of our Smurfy receivers playing against a physical secondary. I think it wears on them to the point of not being able to perform and the drops have something to do with that. Not calling them unwilling just not able to matchup physically for a whole game. I do like the idea of Duke Williams in this and I wonder why the Bills do not see the value of having a wide bodied, strong handed, tough to move, fight for the ball target in their offense. Stubbornness....
ColoradoBills Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: is this one of those let me show you how the stats prove chances are slim to win for the buffalo bills kind of thread? I always enjoy reading how a team has been solid for 45 years and their defense has been playing lights out and it's a brutal outlook for the bills who are facing a win and your in game. keep the negative forces alive as it makes it that much sweeter if they win? even if they lose I know they'll show up. did anyone think they would of showed up on turkey day as they did? play the ravens as close as they did even with a poor outing from JA? this team isn't going to quit nor are they going to give a damn about how solid the stillers have been or any stats showing how their chances are slim. yep 1
billsfan_34 Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 We are ok- play good defense down the stretch and don’t turn the ball over.
Big Turk Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, whatdrought said: Doesn't this become somewhat circular if they're using their own determination for what's good or bad to begin with? Not sure, basically it's designed to compare teams equally because teams face differing schedules so it's kind of hard to know how good a team is or isn't because they don't play all the other teams in the league like most sports.
freddyjj Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, matter2003 said: Pittsburgh's O is not good. We are a better team, and we will win. 7 offensive TDs in last 6 games by Steelers. The D and ST returns are an anomaly that can't be counted on game to game. Edited December 12, 2019 by freddyjj
uticaclub Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 This stretch is also very important regarding Allen's development. He's played in over 25 games now, a timeframe when many analysts and scouts say development starts to slow down significantly. Josh is very different then the average first round QB, so let's hope he keeps improving.
dickleyjones Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, matter2003 said: Basically it tries to rank defenses based on the quality of the opponents offenses and the results so that everyone has a "neutral" basis for a ranking. So for instance, doing very well on D against a great offense will help you a lot more than doing very well on D against a terrible offense. Similarly you will not be penalized as much for giving up more yards/points to good O's versus doing the same to bad O's. i understand what it tries to do. but how does it do it? it is important to know the method if one wants to judge its validity.
Big Turk Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, dickleyjones said: i understand what it tries to do. but how does it do it? it is important to know the method if one wants to judge its validity. It explains it in depth on the site itself in regards to the methodology used
dickleyjones Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, MDH said: If I don't know how a statistic is calculated how on earth can I know if I think it's valuable? yeah - you can't know. i find it amazing that anyone would think it is valid. 2 minutes ago, matter2003 said: It explains it in depth on the site itself in regards to the methodology used where? if i can't calculate it myself, how can i confirm the validity of their claims? how can anyone confirm? Edited December 12, 2019 by dickleyjones
Big Turk Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 32 minutes ago, dickleyjones said: yeah - you can't know. i find it amazing that anyone would think it is valid. where? if i can't calculate it myself, how can i confirm the validity of their claims? how can anyone confirm? https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods 1
SoTier Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 4 hours ago, matter2003 said: What do you think they are going to be able to do against us as a team averaging only 290 yards a game on offense? Good luck Hodges is all I can say. We have made a whole lot better look bad. Hold the Bills offense to 10 points or less, get 2 FGs from their offense, and a defensive/ST TD? While I think the Bills D can handle the Steelers' offense, I also think that Pitts D can handle the Bills offense as well. The Pitts D has forced turn overs with regularity since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick -- and they certainly have scored more defensive TDs than the Bills D. The Bills ST are below average while the Steelers ST are very good. The Heintz Field crowd is always a big advantage for the Steelers.
Patrick Duffy Posted December 12, 2019 Posted December 12, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, billsfanmd07 said: If the Bills lose with JA at QB to a team with an undrafted QB then we have a real problem. I think we win by 10 though. I agree. Although Pitt's defense can cause problems, Bills O should be able to score enough points to pull out the win. Bills D "should" be able to keep Pitt's O in check for the most part. Probably be a kinda low scoring game, but Bills are pretty good on the road, so they "should" pull this one out. Will be highly disappointed if not. Also Bills have not lost consecutive games as of yet. They rebound very well. Edited December 12, 2019 by Patrick_Duffy
billspro Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, SoTier said: Hold the Bills offense to 10 points or less, get 2 FGs from their offense, and a defensive/ST TD? While I think the Bills D can handle the Steelers' offense, I also think that Pitts D can handle the Bills offense as well. The Pitts D has forced turn overs with regularity since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick -- and they certainly have scored more defensive TDs than the Bills D. The Bills ST are below average while the Steelers ST are very good. The Heintz Field crowd is always a big advantage for the Steelers. Thats definitely the worst case scenario. I think we can get a lead on them early and play conservative. I would expect like 19-6 Buffalo.
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