Possible Bills coaching changes in 2020 [Mod edited]

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s certainly your opinion on it. However, those that cover the Carolina Panthers for a living are hearing that he’s a candidate. It’s posted earlier in the thread. I will trust the opinion of the Charlotte sports talk host over Bills message board poster.

Agents put out those stories. 
 

if you aren’t even sure he would even interview well, why do you think the Carolina staff thinks he is ?

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

What you aren’t seeing is that his X’s and O’s are a minor part of the equation to teams. Someone else will be calling the plays if he is an HC. They are saying, “if we are going to invest in our future franchise QB we want a guy that can develop him.” People will ABSOLUTELY look at that as a positive for Daboll. It’s the same reason Frank Reich got a HC job. It’s the same reason Zac Taylor got a job. It’s the same reason Kligman Kingsbury got a job. It’s the same reason Sean McVay got a job. It’s the same reason Matt Nagy got a job. It’s the same reason that Pat Shurmur got a job. Every single one of those guys got more out of the QB than people thought that they would. 

The current trend in the NFL is to hire the next brightest offensive mind so as to find a Doug Pederson who had Frank Riech as his OC. Or Sean McVay who had Zac Taylor as his OC. Matt Nagy worked under Andy Reid. 

 

Now Kingsbury got the Arizona HCing job because he had worked with Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murry at Texas Tech. Whats funny is that TT fired him for having a 35-40 record. Arizona took a huge gamble in my view in an attempt to find that new offensive minded superstar. Currently he is 3-9-1 at Arizona and they are actually doing better than I thought they would. Still, I would put Kingsbury in the Freddie Kitchens category at this point in time.

 

Kitchens is another who was the Browns RB coach who was promoted to OC last season because Mayfield looked so good after HC Hue Jackson, OC Todd Haley were both fired. Again, the Browns took a huge gamble in hiring Kitchens to be their new HC because of Mayfield looking so good. The Browns could have kept Gregg Williams as HC and made Freddie the OC, but I suppose they were afraid to lose him to another team.

 

Dunno If I would mention Shurmur because rumor has it he will be fired after this season. 

 

The thing is that most of those people you mentioned had great success as an NFL offensive coordinator before being hired as an NFL head coach. They were on winning teams with top offenses. Brain Daboll has not yet seen that kind of success that McVay, Nagy, Riech have seen as an OC.

 

The 2019 Buffalo Bills are 9-4 mostly because of that #3 overall defense and they just moved up to #2 in points allowed. The Bills offense is 20th in points, 20th in yards, 23rd in pass attempts, 27th in passing yards. Not a glowing endorsement in my view. Then looking at the Eagles, Patriots and Ravens losses that young QB hasn't looked all that great.

 

What highlights Josh Allen in many minds is his athletic ability in running the ball, escaping the pocket and the tenacity to make plays, a burning desire to win the game. Daboll had nothing to do with developing these traits as he had them before coming to Buffalo. Those traits are also what sets him apart from a Losman, Edwards, EJ. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Agents put out those stories. 
 

if you aren’t even sure he would even interview well, why do you think the Carolina staff thinks he is ?

I don’t know if he will be the greatest candidate, a train wreck or somewhere in between. I’ve never met Brian Daboll. All that I know is that his name has been circulated by talking heads. Whenever connected people say, “_____ is a candidate” they usually are. 
 

I have no idea what the odds of Daboll getting a HC job are. I firmly believe the odds of him getting an interview or interviews is almost 100%. 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[Kirby Jackson]

39 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

The current trend in the NFL is to hire the next brightest offensive mind so as to find a Doug Pederson who had Frank Riech as his OC. Or Sean McVay who had Zac Taylor as his OC. Matt Nagy worked under Andy Reid. 

 

Now Kingsbury got the Arizona HCing job because he had worked with Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murry at Texas Tech. Whats funny is that TT fired him for having a 35-40 record. Arizona took a huge gamble in my view in an attempt to find that new offensive minded superstar. Currently he is 3-9-1 at Arizona and they are actually doing better than I thought they would. Still, I would put Kingsbury in the Freddie Kitchens category at this point in time.

 

Kitchens is another who was the Browns RB coach who was promoted to OC last season because Mayfield looked so good after HC Hue Jackson, OC Todd Haley were both fired. Again, the Browns took a huge gamble in hiring Kitchens to be their new HC because of Mayfield looking so good. The Browns could have kept Gregg Williams as HC and made Freddie the OC, but I suppose they were afraid to lose him to another team.

 

Dunno If I would mention Shurmur because rumor has it he will be fired after this season. 

 

The thing is that most of those people you mentioned had great success as an NFL offensive coordinator before being hired as an NFL head coach. They were on winning teams with top offenses. Brain Daboll has not yet seen that kind of success that McVay, Nagy, Riech have seen as an OC.

 

The 2019 Buffalo Bills are 9-4 mostly because of that #3 overall defense and they just moved up to #2 in points allowed. The Bills offense is 20th in points, 20th in yards, 23rd in pass attempts, 27th in passing yards. Not a glowing endorsement in my view. Then looking at the Eagles, Patriots and Ravens losses that young QB hasn't looked all that great.

 

What highlights Josh Allen in many minds is his athletic ability in running the ball, escaping the pocket and the tenacity to make plays, a burning desire to win the game. Daboll had nothing to do with developing these traits as he had them before coming to Buffalo. Those traits are also what sets him apart from a Losman, Edwards, EJ. 

Every single one of those guys got more out of a QB than people thought they would (Mahomes, Goff, Cousins, Alex Smith, Case Keenum, Nick Foles, etc...). 
 

Again, I’m not saying Daboll will be the next great HC. I have no idea if he will ever be a HC. All that I have said, and all that I will continue to say, is that he WILL be considered by teams. His name has already been out there with Carolina and doubt that’s the only place. If I had to guess he gets interviewed by 2 or 3 teams (Carolina being one of them). 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

I understand your point, it’s just flawed logic (not on your part) within NFL circles.  I suspect Daboll would be fired within three years if he got a HC job.

 

What makes you think that? I am not disagreeing just interested in your logic. 

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

The current trend in the NFL is to hire the next brightest offensive mind so as to find a Doug Pederson who had Frank Riech as his OC. Or Sean McVay who had Zac Taylor as his OC. Matt Nagy worked under Andy Reid. 

 

Now Kingsbury got the Arizona HCing job because he had worked with Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murry at Texas Tech. Whats funny is that TT fired him for having a 35-40 record. Arizona took a huge gamble in my view in an attempt to find that new offensive minded superstar. Currently he is 3-9-1 at Arizona and they are actually doing better than I thought they would. Still, I would put Kingsbury in the Freddie Kitchens category at this point in time.

 

Kitchens is another who was the Browns RB coach who was promoted to OC last season because Mayfield looked so good after HC Hue Jackson, OC Todd Haley were both fired. Again, the Browns took a huge gamble in hiring Kitchens to be their new HC because of Mayfield looking so good. The Browns could have kept Gregg Williams as HC and made Freddie the OC, but I suppose they were afraid to lose him to another team.

 

Dunno If I would mention Shurmur because rumor has it he will be fired after this season. 

 

The thing is that most of those people you mentioned had great success as an NFL offensive coordinator before being hired as an NFL head coach. They were on winning teams with top offenses. Brain Daboll has not yet seen that kind of success that McVay, Nagy, Riech have seen as an OC.

 

The 2019 Buffalo Bills are 9-4 mostly because of that #3 overall defense and they just moved up to #2 in points allowed. The Bills offense is 20th in points, 20th in yards, 23rd in pass attempts, 27th in passing yards. Not a glowing endorsement in my view. Then looking at the Eagles, Patriots and Ravens losses that young QB hasn't looked all that great.

 

What highlights Josh Allen in many minds is his athletic ability in running the ball, escaping the pocket and the tenacity to make plays, a burning desire to win the game. Daboll had nothing to do with developing these traits as he had them before coming to Buffalo. Those traits are also what sets him apart from a Losman, Edwards, EJ. 

 

Kyler Murray never played at Texas Tech. He played at A&M and Oklahoma. Mayfield was at Texas Tech then Oklahoma if that is who you are thinking of? 

[GunnerBill]

What is clear, in this thread and others, is that there are people for whom every offensive failure lies at Brian Daboll's door. Conversely I don't think either @Kirby Jackson or I am saying say has been perfect this year.... but most of what is put on him is not on him. Fans find it easier to blame coaches (easily fired) than players. Such is the NFL. 

[Happy]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

What makes you think that? I am not disagreeing just interested in your logic. 

 

Because a good HC is a good game manager and strategist.  I don't think Daboll would be a good game manager and I don't think he is a good offensive manager by the type of play calls he makes, which has been discussed quite a bit here.  I don't think Daboll is a good strategist either as he usually outsmarts himself with his head scratching situational decisions -- long ball on 3rd and short, FB lining up as a WR, running wide when less than a yard to the end zone rather than QB sneak, etc.  Note that I'm leaving out the Bills bottom half of the league offense (thought I saw 20-27th in various categories) due to Josh being a young NFL QB, making young QB mistakes, and growing into the position, but I think Daboll could be of more help by instituting short/quick passes and screens...more rookie/young qb friendly offense.

 

Daboll appears to call the offense in an academic manner, where the play as designed is the only thing that matters and not the weather or opponent; that is poor management and strategy.  I suspect the offense could be at least somewhat better than what it is now if Daboll would keep this in mind.  IMO, the best coaches in the NFL right now are Belichick, Harbaugh, and Payton; I can't see Daboll being anywhere near these guys.

 

A final point, if Daboll is recognized in league circles as being associated with, and highly thought of by Bill Belichick, why didn't Belichick promote him to OC from TE coach?  I believe this is where Daboll left NE.  Quite telling and at least something to consider.  Perhaps BB doesn't think so highly of Daboll after all.  I do think Brian Daboll architects a good playbook, but he doesn't seem to understand what plays to execute and when; a good HC will have a firm grasp on this (and participate in the planning) even though the coordinator typically calls the plays.

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

37 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

A final point, if Daboll is recognized in league circles as being associated with, and highly thought of by Bill Belichick, why didn't Belichick promote him to OC from TE coach?  I believe this is where Daboll left NE.  Quite telling and at least something to consider.  Perhaps BB doesn't think so highly of Daboll after all.  I do think Brian Daboll architects a good playbook, but he doesn't seem to understand what plays to execute and when; a good HC will have a firm grasp on this (and participate in the planning) even though the coordinator typically calls the plays.

 

 

This is a really simple answer; his New England tenure overlapped with McDaniels. He’s the highest paid coordinator in football. I don’t think that’s telling at all.

Edited December 12, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[Kirby Jackson]

There is a lot here. It sounds like McDaniels may bolt. There is also talk of Daboll going with Caserio wherever he ends up. https://heavy.com/sports/2019/12/major-coaching-change-expected-patriots/

Edited December 12, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Again, I’m not saying Daboll will be the next great HC. I have no idea if he will ever be a HC. All that I have said, and all that I will continue to say, is that he WILL be considered by teams. His name has already been out there with Carolina and doubt that’s the only place. If I had to guess he gets interviewed by 2 or 3 teams (Carolina being one of them). 

Its my contention that Daboll might have been mentioned in Carolina as a possible HC after the Dallas game when the NFL world watched the Bills offense / Allen play well.  I think any further thought about that went out the window after the Ravens game. 

 

When you look at the mans history of where his offenses have preformed in his entire time as an NFL OC, he has never had a passing offense better than 23rd in yards. This is important as teams look at the coaches history. 

 

Cleveland 2009, 30th attempts/32 yards. Cleveland 2010, 29/30 yards. Miami 28/23 yards 2011. Kansas 32/32 Yards. Buffalo 2018, 28/31 yards. Buffalo 2019, 23/27 yards. 

 

Its my take the Bills hired Daboll in thinking they were getting another Bill O'Brian...and they didn't. 

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Nihilarian said:

Its my contention that Daboll might have been mentioned in Carolina as a possible HC after the Dallas game when the NFL world watched the Bills offense / Allen play well.  I think any further thought about that went out the window after the Ravens game. 

 

When you look at the mans history of where his offenses have preformed in his entire time as an NFL OC, he has never had a passing offense better than 23rd in yards. This is important as teams look at the coaches history. 

 

Cleveland 2009, 30th attempts/32 yards. Cleveland 2010, 29/30 yards. Miami 28/23 yards 2011. Kansas 32/32 Yards. Buffalo 2018, 28/31 yards. Buffalo 2019, 23/27 yards. 

 

Its my take the Bills hired Daboll in thinking they were getting another Bill O'Brian...and they didn't. 

 

 

Teams don’t change their plans after each game!! No one is that reactionary. That’s insane. They don’t say “we love him” after the Dallas game and then “we can’t hire him” a week later!! That’s not the way that this works.

 

I just posted an article 30 minutes ago talking about how Caserio may want Daboll wherever he goes. Caserio was obviously with him in NE.

[Nihilarian]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Teams don’t change their plans after each game!! No one is that reactionary. That’s insane. They don’t say “we love him” after the Dallas game and then “we can’t hire him” a week later!! That’s not the way that this works.

 

I just posted an article 30 minutes ago talking about how Caserio may want Daboll wherever he goes. Caserio was obviously with him in NE.

I read it and an interesting take. I kinda doubt anyone stated that "we love him" and were merely interested. If they didn't watch that Ravens game and change their mind, Its them who are insane. Like Mr.WEO said, only a bad team would be foolish enough to hire an OC as bad as Daboll and promote him to HC. The stats show he isn't very good. 

 

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Daboll getting looks as HC this off season. However, you might be right if the Bills win the next three and finish 12-4 with the offense looking like it did against Miami, Denver, Dallas. On the other hand should the offense continue to look like it did against the Ravens the next three games...I kinda doubt the Bills keep him. JMO. 

[Kirby Jackson]

38 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I read it and an interesting take. I kinda doubt anyone stated that "we love him" and were merely interested. If they didn't watch that Ravens game and change their mind, Its them who are insane. Like Mr.WEO said, only a bad team would be foolish enough to hire an OC as bad as Daboll and promote him to HC. The stats show he isn't very good. 

 

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Daboll getting looks as HC this off season. However, you might be right if the Bills win the next three and finish 12-4 with the offense looking like it did against Miami, Denver, Dallas. On the other hand should the offense continue to look like it did against the Ravens the next three games...I kinda doubt the Bills keep him. JMO. 

You are so hung up on the play calling. Daboll worked with Caserio in New England. Caserio thinks highly of him. He is going to consider him for a head job wherever he goes. It isn’t about his play calling. It is about the type of head coach he thinks Daboll will make.

 

I am not even sure that it’s arguable at this point that he will get interviews. He’s universally discussed as a HC candidate. It doesn’t matter if the Bills win all of their remaining games or none of them. These teams are looking at his 20 year coaching career not each game. 
 

This thread wasn’t about the merits of Brian Daboll as an OC. There have been lots of threads discussing play calling. The purpose of this was guys that the Bills could lose.  The Bills aren’t going to lose anyone that they want to keep to coordinator positions or as position coaches. They can block that from happening. They cannot block teams from interviewing guys to be head coaches. Brian Daboll is going to have interviews. That really isn’t even a question at this point. Leslie Frazier may as well. He’s more likely to stay IMO as teams aren’t hiring 60 year-old defensive coordinators (except Denver). 

[Nihilarian]

23 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You are so hung up on the play calling. Daboll worked with Caserio in New England. Caserio thinks highly of him. He is going to consider him for a head job wherever he goes. It isn’t about his play calling. It is about the type of head coach he thinks Daboll will make.

 

I am not even sure that it’s arguable at this point that he will get interviews. He’s universally discussed as a HC candidate. It doesn’t matter if the Bills win all of their remaining games or none of them. These teams are looking at his 20 year coaching career not each game. 
 

This thread wasn’t about the merits of Brian Daboll as an OC. There have been lots of threads discussing play calling. The purpose of this was guys that the Bills could lose.  The Bills aren’t going to lose anyone that they want to keep to coordinator positions or as position coaches. They can block that from happening. They cannot block teams from interviewing guys to be head coaches. Brian Daboll is going to have interviews. That really isn’t even a question at this point. Leslie Frazier may as well. He’s more likely to stay IMO as teams aren’t hiring 60 year-old defensive coordinators (except Denver). 

Again, we need to agree to disagree. I think results do matter. Its not just about the play calling either as the entire scheme and results are looked at is what I was pointing out by listing the stats. 

 

I see your points and I firmly believe that the NFL is a results oriented business and the better teams simply don't hire people because they have a history of who they worked for...good or bad. They want to hire people who have shown they are smart enough to get strong positive results at a lower level before hiring them to be one of thirty two in a multi-million dollar job. 

 

That said, in all honesty I hope you are right in that he does get looks and is eventually hired away. 

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Again, we need to agree to disagree. I think results do matter. Its not just about the play calling either as the entire scheme and results are looked at is what I was pointing out by listing the stats. 

 

I see your points and I firmly believe that the NFL is a results oriented business and the better teams simply don't hire people because they have a history of who they worked for...good or bad. They want to hire people who have shown they are smart enough to get strong positive results at a lower level before hiring them to be one of thirty two in a multi-million dollar job. 

 

That said, in all honesty I hope you are right in that he does get looks and is eventually hired away. 

 

 

The NFL hires people ALL of the time because of who they worked with!! That’s how it is in every business. You hire the people that you know and believe can get the job done. You don’t hire someone that you’ve read about over someone that you’ve sat in meetings with. 
 

You are arguing whether or not he is deserving. I’m not saying that he is or isn’t. I’m just saying that’s what IS going to happen. People (not just you) seem to be shocked to hear this. No one should be surprised over the next month when they hear Daboll and maybe Frazier linked to available HC jobs. 

[GunnerBill]

As night follows day Bills fans blame offensive coordinators for the Bills having below average offenses. For 20 years it has been the coordinators fault. We had good offenses under Roman and Lynn I agree.... but at that time we also had offensive talent in the shape of Lesean McCoy, a receiving corps that over that two years included the likes of Watkins, Woods, Hogan, Goodwin and Harvin, an offensive line with Cordy Glenn, Richie Incognito and Eric Wood, and a Quarterback who while limited was avoiding turnovers at an almost historic rate. Coordinators matter. Playcalling matters. You know what matters more? Talent.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You are so hung up on the play calling. Daboll worked with Caserio in New England. Caserio thinks highly of him. He is going to consider him for a head job wherever he goes. It isn’t about his play calling. It is about the type of head coach he thinks Daboll will make.

 

I am not even sure that it’s arguable at this point that he will get interviews. He’s universally discussed as a HC candidate. It doesn’t matter if the Bills win all of their remaining games or none of them. These teams are looking at his 20 year coaching career not each game. 
 

This thread wasn’t about the merits of Brian Daboll as an OC. There have been lots of threads discussing play calling. The purpose of this was guys that the Bills could lose.  The Bills aren’t going to lose anyone that they want to keep to coordinator positions or as position coaches. They can block that from happening. They cannot block teams from interviewing guys to be head coaches. Brian Daboll is going to have interviews. That really isn’t even a question at this point. Leslie Frazier may as well. He’s more likely to stay IMO as teams aren’t hiring 60 year-old defensive coordinators (except Denver). 

 

?

 

Not just Caserio. I have a feeling that with all the GM spots that about to open, Brian Gaine gets a serious look for a few of them. If he gets hired to rebuild a coaching staff, where do you think the first place he is looking will be?

 

The fact is, with his long resume, Daboll is well connected to a large number of FO folks around the league. At least one of them is bound to bring him in.