Possible Bills coaching changes in 2020 [Mod edited]

[Captain Hindsight]

33 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Oh I disagree completely. I thInk teams are looking at the progress of Josh from last year to this year and giving A LOT of credit to Daboll and Dorsey. Allen is by no means a finished product but he’s light years ahead of where he was at this time last year. The key word is “progress.” The coaches are responsible for (and receive credit for) improvement. 

Totally agree. For how much JA was considered a project, they have made his floor pretty high. Even when he struggles, he still makes some wow plays and had the team within one completion of tying the best team in football. 

 

I'd be surprised if Daboll and Dorsey don't get interview requests

5 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

While I agree that Daboll doesn't appear to have a feel for play calling is there any precedence for this? (an OC who isn't the play caller)

Rams, 49ers have HCs that call plays

 

Bills had Gailey call plays with Modkins as OC

[Happy]

5 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

While I agree that Daboll doesn't appear to have a feel for play calling is there any precedence for this? (an OC who isn't the play caller)

 

I'm not sure there is any precedence for this, at least I don't know about it.  But that really isn't a concern, TBH.  Daboll put together some good plays, just that he calls some of them at the strangest times.  He may just be someone who is terrible at game situations, which is why it is perplexing that Daboll is even being considered for a HC position.

[Kirby Jackson]

27 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

I'm not sure there is any precedence for this, at least I don't know about it.  But that really isn't a concern, TBH.  Daboll put together some good plays, just that he calls some of them at the strangest times.  He may just be someone who is terrible at game situations, which is why it is perplexing that Daboll is even being considered for a HC position.

It shouldn’t be perplexing though if you take a step back. It isn’t about his X’s and O’s its about his ability to develop a young QB. The Bucs fired their HC a few years back to protect their OC (Dirk Koetter) because of his relationship with Jameis. If you are a bad team (let’s use Washington) and have a young QB you’d think Daboll would be a guy that could elevate him. You just watched him take a SUPER raw prospect and turn him into a good NFL QB quickly. You’d look at Daboll and think, “if he can do that with Allen why not Haskins (or Daniel Jones or whomever)?” 
 

This doesn’t even take into account Daboll’s background with Saban and BB. Both of those guys think incredibly highly of him. That matters in NFL circles.

 

I’m not saying that Daboll will definitely get a job. I’m just saying it should surprise no one that teams are interested.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Teams pass more in games they are behind a lot and run more when they are ahead. Who knew?

 

There were three lots of run, run, pass punt on Sunday. This team cannot run to set up the pass. It can pass to set up the run.

They were behind 7 points early at Dallas and they still managed the short passes and more runs than passes. 

 

Against the Browns the final score was 16-19 and the Bills were only down by three points so there was no need to go pass happy whatsoever. Daboll stated that they Browns were stacking to box to stop the run and he was full of crap! Bills at halftime with Allen 17 pass attempts, Singletary 3 rushes and he finished that game with only 8 rushes vs 41 passes. Singletary 5.3 YPC avg and it was near criminal that he wasn't given more rush attempts.

 

Guess what? Singletary with a 5.2 YPC avg against the Ravens. He did get 17 carries and it should have been more. The Ravens rushed 33 times for only 118 yards and that kept Lamar Jackson from getting sacked 6x like Josh Allen was in attempting 39 passes! Jackson with a more reasonable 25 pass attempts. The Bills rushed 23 times vs 39 passes and when those numbers are reversed they usually win.

 

We've all seen what happens to Allen when Daboll forces him to carry the game with his arm and it doesn't go well. 

 

Look, you've come at me with this pass first/more passes than runs idea over and over and I've yet to see that concept work. Allen needs a decent run game to help him gain rhythm and settle in as most young QB's do. Let it go willya?

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

 

Look, you've come at me with this pass first/more passes than runs idea over and over and I've yet to see that concept work. Allen needs a decent run game to help him gain rhythm and settle in as most young QB's do. Let it go willya?

 

Then I respectfully suggest you have been watching the wrong thing. I will let it go when you stop banging on about how much more the Bills need to run the ball. 

[Nihilarian]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It shouldn’t be perplexing though if you take a step back. It isn’t about his X’s and O’s its about his ability to develop a young QB. The Bucs fires their HC a few years back to protect their OC (Dirk Koetter) because of his relationship with Jameis. If you are a bad team (let’s use Washington) and have a young QB you’d think Daboll would be a guy that could elevate him. You just watched him take a SUPER raw prospect and turn him into a good NFL QB quickly. You’d look at Daboll and think, “if he can do that with Allen why not Haskins (or Daniel Jones or whomever)?” 
 

This doesn’t even take into account Daboll’s background with Saban and BB. Both of those guys think incredibly highly of him. That matters in NFL circles.

 

I’m not saying that Daboll will definitely get a job. I’m just saying it should surprise no one that teams are interested.

I really hope he does get a HCing gig.

 

From what I see it's Allen making him look good when calls a game with a balanced offensive attack or actually more runs than passes.

 

Look at the history of this OC in the NFL and its not a good one. This years passing offense is 23rd in attempts and 27th in passing yards, 21st in passing TDs. Which is about the average of where this OC has been in his six NFL seasons as an OC with four different NFL teams. 

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Nihilarian said:

I really hope he does get a HCing gig.

 

From what I see it's Allen making him look good when calls a game with a balanced offensive attack or actually more runs than passes.

 

Look at the history of this OC in the NFL and its not a good one. This years passing offense is 23rd in attempts and 27th in passing yards, 21st in passing TDs. Which is about the average of where this OC has been in his six NFL seasons as an OC with four different NFL teams. 

 

 

I hope that he gets a job for his sake. I hope for another year of continuity for our sake. It’s obvious that Dorsey & Daboll are doing a nice job developing Josh. He’s not where he needs to be yet but 1 more year together would benefit the Bills.

 

How quickly we forget how hard it is to develop a young QB. Look at the way we developed, Losman and Edwards and EJ. It’s not a job that anyone can do. Look what’s happening with Josh Rosen. We have really short memories around here. 

[Nihilarian]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Then I respectfully suggest you have been watching the wrong thing. I will let it go when you stop banging on about how much more the Bills need to run the ball. 

I see. And yet when the Bills ran the ball more against the Dolphins, Broncos, Cowboys they won the game and Josh Allen looked great! 

 

You have been wrong about Josh Allen since stating you thought he should have been a 3rd round draft pick before the draft. Stating that inaccuracy can't be fixed.

Even knowing how raw and inexperienced Allen was and still is, you still want to see the Bills pass first and have him attempt to carry the game with his arm and run the ball less.

For what, in hope that he fails to prove you right?

 

Apparently, since you can't let it go... I will.  

[Mr. WEO]

41 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We aren’t talking about an OC job. The Bills aren’t letting these guys go to an OC job. Daboll is going to be a HC candidate because teams believe that he can develop a young QB. Bad teams, that fire their coach, are often in the market for a young QB. He is already being mentioned for the Carolina job (the only one currently open). 
 

I’d argue, “light years” as well. If you look at the movement in completion percentage (7% points), passer rating (17.9 points), TD:turnover rate and compare it to other guys between year 1 and 2 he will stack up favorably. That is light years by NFL standards. A lot of that is because he had a bigger gap to cover but the coaches will get credit for that. 

 

 

It's the topic of this thread.  Dorsey as OC.

 

He's better for sure.  His completion rate last year was so low that any jump would be significant.  He's still below 60%. Last week v. Baltimore, another slow start, his lowest yardage all season and 43% of his passes completed.  He was 8 for 18 in the first half, took 4 sacks (with a fumble lost) and the Bills had a 1st and 10 at the Ravens 13 and ended up kicking a FG 3 plays later from the 18.  First half:  punt, punt, punt, sack/fumble, FG, punt, FG.  It was week 14....

 

The Bills Offense is 20th in PPG (21.1).  The D is #2 in points allowed (16.3). If the D was 20th in points allowed, the Bills would likely have a losing record. 

 

He has potential for sure, but I really doubt GMs are saying "wow, look at what Dorsey has done with Allen this year!".

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

We’re finally winning the regular season so we should worry about the off season? ? 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

It's the topic of this thread.  Dorsey as OC.

 

He's better for sure.  His completion rate last year was so low that any jump would be significant.  He's still below 60%. Last week v. Baltimore, another slow start, his lowest yardage all season and 43% of his passes completed.  He was 8 for 18 in the first half, took 4 sacks (with a fumble lost) and the Bills had a 1st and 10 at the Ravens 13 and ended up kicking a FG 3 plays later from the 18.  First half:  punt, punt, punt, sack/fumble, FG, punt, FG.  It was week 14....

 

The Bills Offense is 20th in PPG (21.1).  The D is #2 in points allowed (16.3). If the D was 20th in points allowed, the Bills would likely have a losing record. 

 

He has potential for sure, but I really doubt GMs are saying "wow, look at what Dorsey has done with Allen this year!".

 

 

The Bills will block an OC move. I understand that it is the topic but it’s not realistic. The Bills will say no. HC interviews are the only thing that they can’t block. Daboll and Fraizer are going to get looks. 
 

You are looking at where the Bills “are” vs. where they “are vs. expectations.” Everyone is talking about the progress of Allen. In large part, it helps Daboll that he had so far to go. He doesn’t need to get him to Aaron Rodgers for people to think that he’s done a great job. Allen becoming a good NFL QB is a MASSIVE success in a lot of evaluators eyes. If we had drafted Baker Mayfield and today he was in the exact same spot as Allen people wouldn’t be nearly as impressed. 
 

Again, Daboll is already being talked about for the one open job. His name will surface for other jobs as well. That doesn’t mean that he will get one. It’s just crazy that people can’t take a step back and see his appeal to bad teams. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I see. And yet when the Bills ran the ball more against the Dolphins, Broncos, Cowboys they won the game and Josh Allen looked great! 

 

You have been wrong about Josh Allen since stating you thought he should have been a 3rd round draft pick before the draft. Stating that inaccuracy can't be fixed.

Even knowing how raw and inexperienced Allen was and still is, you still want to see the Bills pass first and have him attempt to carry the game with his arm and run the ball less.

For what, in hope that he fails to prove you right?

 

Apparently, since you can't let it go... I will.  

 

So first of all - what I thought about Josh at the draft is irrelevant. I am not someone who ever believes players are forever their draft grade.

 

As for the Cowboys game..... that is the exact game that proves my point. The Bills passed more than they ran until the point where they scored the third touchdown and had a two score lead. Only then did they go run heavy. And of the 18 runs they had to that point a further 3 were called passes where Allen scrambled. The Bills passed early to get Josh in rhythm and then balanced the game up with the lead. That is and should be the model with Josh. When they try and just come out and "establish the run" early the result almost always seems to be short drives and the Bills off the field. I will give you Denver. That was a run first gameplan and it worked and fair play. But that is easier to commit to against an offense that didn't look like it would have scored a touchdown if we were still playing today.

[Nihilarian]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I hope that he gets a job for his sake. I hope for another year of continuity for our sake. It’s obvious that Dorsey & Daboll are doing a nice job developing Josh. He’s not where he needs to be yet but 1 more year together would benefit the Bills.

 

How quickly we forget how hard it is to develop a young QB. Look at the way we developed, Losman and Edwards and EJ. It’s not a job that anyone can do. Look what’s happening with Josh Rosen. We have really short memories around here. 

C'mon Kirby.

 

Please don't put Josh Allen in the same category as Losman and EJ or even Edwards. There is a world of difference between those players and Allen in so many ways.

 

Although, I do agree that all three of those young QB's were developed by the wrong people. Steve Fairchild, Turk Schonert, Alex Van Pelt, Curtis Modkins. I do believe only AVP is still coaching in the NFL as a QB coach with Cincy. The best OC's the Bills have had the last decade or so was Greg Roman and Anthony Lynn. Should Lynn lose his job with the Chargers I only hope the Bills hire him. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills will block an OC move. I understand that it is the topic but it’s not realistic. The Bills will say no. HC interviews are the only thing that they can’t block. Daboll and Fraizer are going to get looks. 
 

You are looking at where the Bills “are” vs. where they “are vs. expectations.” Everyone is talking about the progress of Allen. In large part, it helps Daboll that he had so far to go. He doesn’t need to get him to Aaron Rodgers for people to think that he’s done a great job. Allen becoming a good NFL QB is a MASSIVE success in a lot of evaluators eyes. If we had drafted Baker Mayfield and today he was in the exact same spot as Allen people wouldn’t be nearly as impressed. 
 

Again, Daboll is already being talked about for the one open job. His name will surface for other jobs as well. That doesn’t mean that he will get one. It’s just crazy that people can’t take a step back and see his appeal to bad teams. 

 

I think Daboll gets interviews. I am doubtful he gets a job but one more year and another jump from Josh in 2020 and he almost certainly does. Frazier might get interviews but I am more sceptical there. Not because he hasn't done an excellent job here. I think our fans tend to underrate the role he has played.... but because he is a kind of quiet considered guy who would be a retread, is 60 years old and is a defensive guy in a league going for offensive coaches. I think the Colts job two years ago was probably his last shot at another HC job.

[DrDawkinstein]

10 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Nonetheless, the Bills don’t have to let teams interview him for coordinator positions. Teams block guys all the time. If the Bills feel he’s crucial to Josh’s development they should (and will) hold firm on Dorsey. They can even hand him more money to keep him happy.
 

I think Frazier and Daboll are going to get interviews. I don’t know if either will be hired but they will be considered. 

 

While I dont agree with blocking promotions for your assistant coaches, I do agree that Pegula could remedy the situation by making him the highest paid QB coach in the league. That would be the good way to do it.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Nihilarian said:

C'mon Kirby.

 

Please don't put Josh Allen in the same category as Losman and EJ or even Edwards. There is a world of difference between those players and Allen in so many ways.

 

Although, I do agree that all three of those young QB's were developed by the wrong people. Steve Fairchild, Turk Schonert, Alex Van Pelt, Curtis Modkins. I do believe only AVP is still coaching in the NFL as a QB coach with Cincy. The best OC's the Bills have had the last decade or so was Greg Roman and Anthony Lynn. Should Lynn lose his job with the Chargers I only hope the Bills hire him. 

 

 

Losman and EJ were raw first round picks. Allen was a raw first round pick with a higher ceiling. They aren’t all that different as prospects. Each was considered a long shot from analytical statistics. 
 

I really can’t figure out why anyone is denying the role that Daboll has had on Allen’s development? It’s really crazy to me that people don’t think teams would be interested in a guy, that worked under Saban and Belichick, and can develop young QBs. Daboll has shown that he can do the most important thing for a bad team (develop a young QB). He worked under, inarguably, the two greatest coaches of this generation. This really is shocking to me. It’s OBVIOUS why teams are looking at him.

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Daboll gets interviews. I am doubtful he gets a job but one more year and another jump from Josh in 2020 and he almost certainly does. Frazier might get interviews but I am more sceptical there. Not because he hasn't done an excellent job here. I think our fans tend to underrate the role he has played.... but because he is a kind of quiet considered guy who would be a retread, is 60 years old and is a defensive guy in a league going for offensive coaches. I think the Colts job two years ago was probably his last shot at another HC job.

I agree with all of this

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

While I dont agree with blocking promotions for your assistant coaches, I do agree that Pegula could remedy the situation by making him the highest paid QB coach in the league. That would be the good way to do it.

That’s my guess if teams come calling. The Bills will throw some money his way to sort of “keep him happy.” It will be a good compromise. 

[Mr. WEO]

13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills will block an OC move. I understand that it is the topic but it’s not realistic. The Bills will say no. HC interviews are the only thing that they can’t block. Daboll and Fraizer are going to get looks. 
 

You are looking at where the Bills “are” vs. where they “are vs. expectations.” Everyone is talking about the progress of Allen. In large part, it helps Daboll that he had so far to go. He doesn’t need to get him to Aaron Rodgers for people to think that he’s done a great job. Allen becoming a good NFL QB is a MASSIVE success in a lot of evaluators eyes. If we had drafted Baker Mayfield and today he was in the exact same spot as Allen people wouldn’t be nearly as impressed. 
 

Again, Daboll is already being talked about for the one open job. His name will surface for other jobs as well. That doesn’t mean that he will get one. It’s just crazy that people can’t take a step back and see his appeal to bad teams. 

 

They may block it, but that's beside the point.  I don't see how he gets a look.

 

I think that a lot of GMs looking at Allen last Sunday would not agree with you that JA's current level of play is a massive success.  Certainly not enough, on its own, to get anyone a new job.

 

I dumped on Rivera a lot, but I believe he was a better HC than Daboll would be.  Bad teams make bad HC choices and Daboll is a guy who's only professional "success" in football (college or NFL) has come via his proximity to great HCs.  Success by association.  On "bad teams" he has been a dud as OC.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Mr. WEO

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

While I dont agree with blocking promotions for your assistant coaches, I do agree that Pegula could remedy the situation by making him the highest paid QB coach in the league. That would be the good way to do it.

 

I don't think the Bills do generally either. I think the pitch to Dorsey would be "look, this even more than last offseason, is the critical period in Josh's career. He has gone from bottom end of the league rookie to a solid middle of the pack Quarterback as a sophomore. We need him to take that next step next year and if he does then at the end of 2020 we will not stand in your way.... unless of course we promote you here."

[Cripple Creek]

1 hour ago, Captain Hindsight said:

 

Rams, 49ers have HCs that call plays

 

Bills had Gailey call plays with Modkins as OC

Not at all what the person I quoted was suggesting.  Of course there are head coaches who call offensive or defensive plays.  The question is, are there teams where neither the HC or O/DC does not call the game.

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So first of all - what I thought about Josh at the draft is irrelevant. I am not someone who ever believes players are forever their draft grade.

 

As for the Cowboys game..... that is the exact game that proves my point. The Bills passed more than they ran until the point where they scored the third touchdown and had a two score lead. Only then did they go run heavy. And of the 18 runs they had to that point a further 3 were called passes where Allen scrambled. The Bills passed early to get Josh in rhythm and then balanced the game up with the lead. That is and should be the model with Josh. When they try and just come out and "establish the run" early the result almost always seems to be short drives and the Bills off the field. I will give you Denver. That was a run first gameplan and it worked and fair play. But that is easier to commit to against an offense that didn't look like it would have scored a touchdown if we were still playing today.

Horse hockey!

 

The Dallas game. Bills first series, run 8 yards, run up mid for 3 yards 1st down! Allen drops back to pass and was sacked -8 yards. next play, short pass complete 6 yards. Allen run up the middle for 9 yards, Punt!

 

Three runs a sack, one pass. 

 

Bills second series, Run, run, pass, run, incomplete pass, incomplete pass, penalty on Dallas, incomplete pass, pass, pass, Punt!

 

Three runs, six passes.

 

Bills third series, pass, run, run, pass, run, run, run, pass. 

 

Five runs, two passes. 

 

fourth series, Run, pass, pass, run, aborted snap looked like a QB sneak (run) pass.

 

Three runs, three passes. 

 

14 runs vs 12 passes in the first half. Pretty balanced in my view. 

 

I realize you and I have completely different views on Allen and I have accepted this.