Wk 15- BUF +2 @ PITT

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

It's a factor, but generally speaking, public money is tied up in parlays or not enough to REALLY move lines because the aggregate amount wagered doesn't match the big money. Also, the books tend to fear/respect the big money more so there's that. Digging in the weeds a bit, but Pitt is the "right" side from a betting perspective. Right side is nowhere near 100 percent, so hopefully the Bills go out and handle business. The REALLY good teams win even when they're not "supposed" to. We weren't "supposed" to dominate Denver and we did. So there's also that. Just win.

And then you have the Patriots* who are so ridiculously profitable ATS since Brady/Belichick it's almost illogical to think they haven't been cheating. 

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

And then you have the Patriots* who are so ridiculously profitable ATS since Brady/Belichick it's almost illogical to think they haven't been cheating. 

For sure. A team like the Patriots proves the rule is not absolute(or I'd be rich), and the best example EVER of "good teams cover bad lines." Not the only example, but the best example. Every year, every sport, there's a few teams that just keep on covering even when the public rides them. Let's hope the Bills are one of these teams. They've actually done it more than once this season, starting with the Giants W.

[GoBills808]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

For sure. A team like the Patriots proves the rule is not absolute(or I'd be rich), and the best example EVER of "good teams cover bad lines." Not the only example, but the best example. Every year, every sport, there's a few teams that just keep on covering even when the public rides them. Let's hope the Bills are one of these teams. They've actually done it more than once this season, starting with the Giants W.

It's definitely the Bills this year. Only the Rams and Niners I believe have better records against the spread this season currently. 

 

 

[BlackWing]

4 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Welcome, and we agree on trying to take care of business against New England and Baltimore.

 

For your part Baltimore can not sit their starters in the last week vs Pitt.

 

Well, barring injuries, I don't see John sitting anyone out, particularly in that game. We take our Steeler rivalry pretty serious. Those games are always incredibly physical, I just hope we get out of it with little to no damage.

 

Good luck against them Sunday, rooting for you guys! Need to protect Allen big time this game.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 12/13/2019 at 2:31 AM, BlackWing said:

Hello all, Ravens fan here from Balti, accidentally found your forum before our game last week. Very impressed with the awesome community you have here.

Just wanted to say 2 things.

1. Well done keeping LJax under 30 last week. Will definitely make us nervous if we see you again in playoffs. Was a good scrappy game.

2. Please beat the crap out of those Squeelers...  (Pats too)  Seriously... and completely.

 

Remain classy!

^_-v

Lamar and Ingram are ridiculous.  Congrats on a great team.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/11/2019 at 12:57 PM, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Wow I'm tempted to bet the over here. 

 

Although I shouldn't since that usually dooms the Bills to a blowout loss

 

Just Don't then

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/13/2019 at 1:31 AM, BlackWing said:

Hello all, Ravens fan here from Balti, accidentally found your forum before our game last week. Very impressed with the awesome community you have here.

Just wanted to say 2 things.

1. Well done keeping LJax under 30 last week. Will definitely make us nervous if we see you again in playoffs. Was a good scrappy game.

2. Please beat the crap out of those Squeelers...  (Pats too)  Seriously... and completely.

 

Remain classy!

^_-v

 

Welcome!  Congrats to the Ravens on taking the #1 seed and we will make every effort to knock down our next three games, ESPECIALLY New England***(should I add*)?

 

You guys got a fantastic team!  Andrews, Lamar, and Edmunds making DCs around the league go grey.  I thought it was a hard-fought but generally clean and classy game with you guys that came down to the final play.

 

But Man!  I watched the start of the Jets game and thought who is this Ravens D and what did they do with the D that teed off against us?  It was like y'all were playing at half speed or something against the Jets.  Fortunately, half-speed sufficed and you made Gase and Sammy all mad. 

 

Make the QB and HC yell at each other and somewhere, a kitten gets an extra 9 lives.

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Welcome!  Congrats to the Ravens on taking the #1 seed and we will make every effort to knock down our next three games, ESPECIALLY New England***(should I add*)?

 

You guys got a fantastic team!  Andrews, Lamar, and Edmunds making DCs around the league go grey.  I thought it was a hard-fought but generally clean and classy game with you guys that came down to the final play.

 

But Man!  I watched the start of the Jets game and thought who is this Ravens D and what did they do with the D that teed off against us?  It was like y'all were playing at half speed or something against the Jets.  Fortunately, half-speed sufficed and you made Gase and Sammy all mad. 

 

Thursday Night games are tricky because there is a lot of fatigue involved. It appeared to me that the Ravens defense lacked a certain energy; especially once the offense started scoring every time they touched the ball. They came up with stops when it "mattered." That's what it LOOKED like anyways.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

27 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Thursday Night games are tricky because there is a lot of fatigue involved. It appeared to me that the Ravens defense lacked a certain energy; especially once the offense started scoring every time they touched the ball. They came up with stops when it "mattered." That's what it LOOKED like anyways.

 

There's that.  Personally, I think they perceived us as more of a threat - a D able to actually limit them, so their D better bring its A+ game and be sure they shut us down.  But maybe that's my inner "Hopeful" thinking.

 

I'm sure they were still sore and stiff, but I also think they figured they had this one (and they were right)

[Scott7975]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There's that.  Personally, I think they perceived us as more of a threat - a D able to actually limit them, so their D better bring its A+ game and be sure they shut us down.

 

I'm sure they were still sore and stiff, but I also think they figured they had this one (and they were right)

 

They were probably wore out not just from playing us but also playing San Fran.  That was back to back weeks of very tough games for them followed by Thurs.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

They were probably wore out not just from playing us but also playing San Fran.  That was back to back weeks of very tough games for them followed by Thurs.

 

and they won very comfortably so why not?

 

 

[RocCityRoller]

Look how nice we play with others. Especially a solid Baltimore fan.

 

We both want and need the Steelers and Patriots to lose.

 

Until the AFC Championship game my fair feathered friends...

 

PS- make sure to knock Pitt out in the last week.

[RocCityRoller]

20 hours ago, BlackWing said:

 

Well, barring injuries, I don't see John sitting anyone out, particularly in that game. We take our Steeler rivalry pretty serious. Those games are always incredibly physical, I just hope we get out of it with little to no damage.

 

Good luck against them Sunday, rooting for you guys! Need to protect Allen big time this game.

 

The investment in youth on the Def front 7 paid dividends for Baltimore. I hope Baltimore gained a level of respect for the Bills Defense.

 

The Ravens OLB/DE contained Josh Allen and made him one dimensional. The Buffalo OL is a work in progress and Baltimore did an excellent job hemming him in.

 

Pitt will try to do similar. Bud Dupree and TJ Watt are both excellent players, and the Pitt D lives off their energy and Minka Fitzpatrick on the back end.

 

Buffalo MUST use this aggressiveness against that defense. They have to execute a screen, a few draw plays and some quick flips to McKenzie or similar. Unfortunately the Bills OL is not suited to the screen game, but option 2 and 3 (Draws and flips/shovels) are.

 

Buffalo needs to slow down the Pitt front 7 by doing these things, and take the pace of the game.

 

The Bills Defense will show up.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

and they won very comfortably so why not?

 

 

Right

[BlackWing]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Welcome!  Congrats to the Ravens on taking the #1 seed and we will make every effort to knock down our next three games, ESPECIALLY New England***(should I add*)?

 

You guys got a fantastic team!  Andrews, Lamar, and Edmunds making DCs around the league go grey.  I thought it was a hard-fought but generally clean and classy game with you guys that came down to the final play.

 

But Man!  I watched the start of the Jets game and thought who is this Ravens D and what did they do with the D that teed off against us?  It was like y'all were playing at half speed or something against the Jets.  Fortunately, half-speed sufficed and you made Gase and Sammy all mad. 

 

Make the QB and HC yell at each other and somewhere, a kitten gets an extra 9 lives.

 

 

Thanks a ton, really proud of our guys this year. It definitely is a bit surreal, almost like an overly positive day dream (I'm sure you all can relate being how well you're doing this year.) Not used to all the praise we're getting lately, can't say I mind it though ? Even when Flacco was in his prime (2012 SB win) I don't remember feeling remotely as positive about our team as a whole (those playoff wins against Peyton and Brady back to back were so satisfying).

 

I am a bit nervous about the playoffs though, it's an entirely different game post season, and I'm sure the teams will each have their own plans to deal with our unique offense. I'm confident we'll have some new tricks up our sleeves, just need Lamar to remain healthy and keep our D relentless. I won't feel 'too' bad if we end up losing to you though, as long as it's not the Pats or Pitt... that would just be terrible. Hoping for a big Bills win tomorrow, can show us some good ways to hurt them on week 17. ?

[CSBill]

On 12/13/2019 at 2:31 AM, BlackWing said:

Hello all, Ravens fan here from Balti, accidentally found your forum before our game last week. Very impressed with the awesome community you have here.

Just wanted to say 2 things.

1. Well done keeping LJax under 30 last week. Will definitely make us nervous if we see you again in playoffs. Was a good scrappy game.

2. Please beat the crap out of those Squeelers...  (Pats too)  Seriously... and completely.

 

Remain classy!

^_-v

 

Welcome! BlackWing. Excellent first post, you just moved to the head of the TBD rookie class. ANd congrat on a great season, the Ravens are impressive.

 

Question for you, without Lamar, how good are the Ravens? The critique has been it is all built around him. That may be so, but not bad. Unless, of course, he gets hurt (I truly do not wish that on him, but in this league that probability is always high). What do you think? Will we get to see that in the last two games; that is, resting him and giving RG3 a taste of real action? Thoughts?

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

The line has moved. It is now EVEN.

[JoshAllin]

On 12/13/2019 at 2:37 PM, BillsQuebec said:

PICK: New England Patriots -9.5 at Cincinnati Bengals (rated 4 stars)

IDK about this based on pats last 3 games, played 3 horrible defenses and scored 16, 22, 13, bengals have a legit chance here at an upset, bengals D has kept them in games and they were down the wire with cleveland last week

Edited December 15, 2019 by motorj

[BlackWing]

5 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

Welcome! BlackWing. Excellent first post, you just moved to the head of the TBD rookie class. ANd congrat on a great season, the Ravens are impressive.

 

Question for you, without Lamar, how good are the Ravens? The critique has been it is all built around him. That may be so, but not bad. Unless, of course, he gets hurt (I truly do not wish that on him, but in this league that probability is always high). What do you think? Will we get to see that in the last two games; that is, resting him and giving RG3 a taste of real action? Thoughts?

Thanks CSBill! Such a classy forum.

With Lamar out of the equation, we'd definitely be more than a bit declawed, but even with RG3 taking the helm (he's no Lamar, but can still get some running done, and work adequately with this offense design) he'd still have the help of Ingram, Edwards, and our tricky TE's. The defense would remain the same, thus making a fairly solid team overall. Still, wouldn't be nearly as explosive or hard to prep for as is with Lamar. Just hope he stays healthy... every Ravens fan's prayer.

Judging from his intense desire to prove himself and keep the team playing their best (even when up 3+ TD late in game, he has to get his 5th TDs pass before reluctantly stepping back) I'd expect Lamar to play hard in both games, only being pulled if we're dominating in later quarters. I do think you'll see him running more to sidelines, less down the gut, juking and spinning like swivel hips Smith (if anyone gets that joke; I love you.)

He did have a minor quad injury before jets game, but hopefully that won't be a factor going forward.

Edited December 15, 2019 by BlackWing

[Albany,n.y.]

On 12/11/2019 at 7:12 PM, billsherd said:

I have no idea what all you gamblers are talking in this thread . Ha

Here the simple version:  Those of us who bet the Bills to win the game made money.  Those who only bet the Bills to cover made money.  Also anybody who bet the Bills to make the playoffs clinched winning their bet.  I'll be heading to the Casino tomorrow & then to the bank.