Wk 15- BUF +2 @ PITT

[Albany,n.y.]

Chris Brown Twitter Link on JuJu  

 

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Chris Brown Twitter Link on JuJu  

 

Hulksmashing under currently

 

Although for the actual game Connor imo is a bigger concern. I think JJSS being out is better for the under but Connor being out would be better for the Bills...just my $.02

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Excellent post. Seriously. 

 

Nah, not really. The Bills are the best team that Pittsburgh has faced in MANY weeks.

 

This is a game that the Bills should and WILL win.

 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Nah, not really. The Bills are the best team that Pittsburgh has faced in MANY weeks.

 

This is a game that the Bills should and WILL win.

 

I think you may have misinterpreted the post (or perhaps I did). I didn't take him to say that the Pitt D is better, but that they are more opportunistic and tend to have more scoring plays on D. The Bills D is probably more consistent and better disciplined overall, but they don't score (or at least haven't yet). 

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I think you may have misinterpreted the post (or perhaps I did). I didn't take him to say that the Pitt D is better, but that they are more opportunistic and tend to have more scoring plays on D. The Bills D is probably more consistent and better disciplined overall, but they don't score (or at least haven't yet). 

Bills need to find a TJ Watt type player in the offseason to reach the next level. Having a stout defense is great and the Bills D is the main reason they're 9-4. BUT, they haven't flipped fields. Gotta get in the QB's mug on a consistent basis to achieve this. Never stop improving.

[Stallions]

On 12/10/2019 at 7:56 PM, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Historically whenever someone asks me about betting on a Bills game I say ‘don’t do it’. This year does feel different. I don’t think the Bills lose two in a row. As long as Pitt is favored I think you are ok. O/U is tricky in this one. Lean under. .

Too many people think of the 'Glory Days' with Kelly, Thurman etc. and how they failed miserably playing Pittsburgh.  This is a NEW Bills era without the ego's that hurt the SB era Bills.

[GoBills808]

So I guess?!?!? the Jets are hanging in there for my moneyline plays? I got 1 on +600 and then against my will they raised it to +750...so I took another 1. 

 

Go Jets! lolol

 

 

[BillsFan130]

6 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Nah, not really. The Bills are the best team that Pittsburgh has faced in MANY weeks.

 

This is a game that the Bills should and WILL win.

 

Bills are a better team but the equalizer is going to Pitts to play on a Sunday night.

 

50/50 game IMO

[mannc]

3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Bills need to find a TJ Watt type player in the offseason to reach the next level. Having a stout defense is great and the Bills D is the main reason they're 9-4. BUT, they haven't flipped fields. Gotta get in the QB's mug on a consistent basis to achieve this. Never stop improving.

What happened to Darryl Johnson?  I haven’t noticed him much lately.

[LSHMEAB]

21 minutes ago, mannc said:

What happened to Darryl Johnson?  I haven’t noticed him much lately.

Haven't seen much, but he was a 7th round pick who made some waves in camp. Would have been a major surprise if he were an impact player. If you're talking THIS season, who knows, maybe he'll get some reps down the stretch.

 

I don't really believe this team is capable of winning a Superbowl so I'm looking ahead a bit. In the grand scheme of things, Allen and the offense need to get better. They need more weapons and the QB needs to be more productive/efficient.

 

On the defensive side of the ball, the missing element is that game changing stud in the front 7 who rushes the QB consistently and needs to be accounted for on every play. Same deal on offense really. They need a weapon capable of taking it to the house on any given touch. 

 

They went the "sign a bunch of players" route in 2018 and the results are mixed, but overall positive. The team IS 9-4. What I'd like to see this offseason is acquiring a big time edge rusher and a big time offensive weapon, whether that be through the draft or FA'cy. Not really an original thought, but that's what they need to do.

 

Getting back to the here and now, I'm very concerned about the offense's ability to score on that PIttsburgh D. They're gonna have guys in Allen's face all game and yards will be tough to come by. It's easy to say the defense will "dominate" Pittsburgh's offense, but there's always lapses. You can't EXPECT to hold Pitt under 14 or whatever. They very well may, but scores happen. Just the nature of the league. The offense is going to really need to step up. I think fans are underestimating the difficulty of this matchup.

Edited December 13, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, Stallions said:

Too many people think of the 'Glory Days' with Kelly, Thurman etc. and how they failed miserably playing Pittsburgh.  This is a NEW Bills era without the ego's that hurt the SB era Bills.

They usually did fine vs Steelers in Orchard Park, but at PIT ( especially in prime time ) rarely turned out well. 

[BlackWing]

Hello all, Ravens fan here from Balti, accidentally found your forum before our game last week. Very impressed with the awesome community you have here.

Just wanted to say 2 things.

1. Well done keeping LJax under 30 last week. Will definitely make us nervous if we see you again in playoffs. Was a good scrappy game.

2. Please beat the crap out of those Squeelers...  (Pats too)  Seriously... and completely.

 

Remain classy!

^_-v

[mannc]

7 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Haven't seen much, but he was a 7th round pick who made some waves in camp. Would have been a major surprise if he were an impact player. If you're talking THIS season, who knows, maybe he'll get some reps down the stretch.

 

I don't really believe this team is capable of winning a Superbowl so I'm looking ahead a bit. In the grand scheme of things, Allen and the offense need to get better. They need more weapons and the QB needs to be more productive/efficient.

 

On the defensive side of the ball, the missing element is that game changing stud in the front 7 who rushes the QB consistently and needs to be accounted for on every play. Same deal on offense really. They need a weapon capable of taking it to the house on any given touch. 

 

They went the "sign a bunch of players" route in 2018 and the results are mixed, but overall positive. The team IS 9-4. What I'd like to see this offseason is acquiring a big time edge rusher and a big time offensive weapon, whether that be through the draft or FA'cy. Not really an original thought, but that's what they need to do.

 

Getting back to the here and now, I'm very concerned about the offense's ability to score on that PIttsburgh D. They're gonna have guys in Allen's face all game and yards will be tough to come by. It's easy to say the defense will "dominate" Pittsburgh's offense, but there's always lapses. You can't EXPECT to hold Pitt under 14 or whatever. They very well may, but scores happen. Just the nature of the league. The offense is going to really need to step up. I think fans are underestimating the difficulty of this matchup.

I didn’t expect Darryl Johnson to light it up this year, but sometimes late-round, small school guys can turn into big-time edge rushers, but it doesn’t happen immediately.  (See Matt Judon).

I expect the team to go after a veteran pass rusher this offseason, but I see adding offensive playmakers as the clear number 1 priority, in the draft and in free agency.  The quality of the available offensive weapons is probably the biggest difference between the Ravens and the Bills this year.  No reason the Bills can’t be next year’s Ravens.

[Irv]

On 12/11/2019 at 7:39 PM, LSHMEAB said:

I can understand why you feel that way from the outside looking in, but it's just not the case. The guys who set the lines use a very detailed set of analytical data. This particular line is moving towards Pitt despite the fact that the public(which means the average Joe betting 20 or 30 bucks) picking the Bills. That's generally not good. 

 

The Denver analogy was a good one. That line moved all the way down to 4.5 despite the fact that the public liked the Bills. I'm hoping for a repeat, but Pitt is a more difficult matchup. We'll see what happens. Just gotta hope for the best.

 

I agree.  But, why can’t public opinion be a factor as well?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I think you may have misinterpreted the post (or perhaps I did). I didn't take him to say that the Pitt D is better, but that they are more opportunistic and tend to have more scoring plays on D. The Bills D is probably more consistent and better disciplined overall, but they don't score (or at least haven't yet). 

 

I think you may have missed "It’s really a bad matchup. The onus is on the Bills offense to score with few playmakers vs a pressure defense. The PIT D and physical offensive players allow them to scrape by with a caretaker QB. The Bills do have major issues going toe to toe with exactly the type of defense they’ll be facing this week."

 

I took the above as saying that the Pitts D is sufficiently better than ours (and scores!), that they can get by with not much at QB, while it's a bad matchup for us even though we have more offense than they do.

 

I think we got this, but everyone (including Allen) needs to take care of the ball, and we need to move the chains on offense.

 

 

22 hours ago, Like A Mofo said:

I really like Tennessee over Houston at home. Amazing to think that Ryan Tannehill is one of the best QB's over the past 6 weeks. Bill O'Brien is not a good coach and that will show itself on Sunday.

 

Bill O'Brien is a puzzling coach.  At times he can be brilliant.  At other times....?‍♂️

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think you may have missed "It’s really a bad matchup. The onus is on the Bills offense to score with few playmakers vs a pressure defense. The PIT D and physical offensive players allow them to scrape by with a caretaker QB. The Bills do have major issues going toe to toe with exactly the type of defense they’ll be facing this week."

 

I took the above as saying that the Pitts D is sufficiently better than ours (and scores!), that they can get by with not much at QB, while it's a bad matchup for us even though we have more offense than they do.

 

I think we got this, but everyone (including Allen) needs to take care of the ball, and we need to move the chains on offense.

 

 

 

Bill O'Brien is a puzzling coach.  At times he can be brilliant.  At other times....?‍♂️

I took it to read that he thinks that the Bills are more likely to turn the ball over in what promises to be a fairly low scoring game, and not that the Steelers' D is "better."  That said, I suppose @Boatdrinks can clarify matters himself.

[GoBills808]

Update for Friday the 13th- line ticked down to Bills+1.5 this AM, I'm assuming over the JJSS reports of aggravating his knee and downgraded for Sunday...I'm not reading much into it other than slightly in favor of BUF if an already banged-up wideout probably missing the game generates enough action to move half a point away from PITT. Especially considering moneyline holding steady and o/u not budging, all told it's probably noise or some late incoming sharp plays who were waiting on the injury reports for Friday which again I see as favorable (and again, very slight) to Bills.

[BillsQuebec]

3 NFL Picks for Week #15

 

PICK: New England Patriots -9.5 at Cincinnati Bengals (rated 4 stars)

 

Let’s kick off with a few stats. The Patriots are 5-1 both against the spread (ATS) and straight up over the past six meetings with the Bengals. New England also holds a 4-0 ATS record on the road against teams with a losing record.

 

As for the Bengals, they are posting a bad 1-6 ATS record as home underdogs.

 

I know the Patriots don’t look the same. But I wouldn’t bet against a Belichick-coached team following a couple of losses. No way!

 

One might argue this is a sandwich game for New England after facing the Chiefs and awaiting a key meeting with the Bills. However, considering this game is very important for New England, I do not believe they will fall into a trap.

 

The Patriots eat bad teams for breakfast. They have played five games against teams with a 5-8 record or worse. In those games, they outscored their opponents 174-to-35!! That’s an average margin of victory of 28 points. So do you think they can win this one by at least 10 points? You bet they can!

 

So, overall, yes the Pats offense is struggling but Cincy’s defense allows an average of close to 400 yards per game. New England will find a way to move the ball, while their defense will complicate things for Andy Dalton and company.

 

PICK: Chicago Bears +4 at Green Bay Packers (rated 2 stars)

 

After starting the season with a 3-5 record, the Bears have gone 4-1 since then. Their defense has allowed a maximum of 24 points in each of their past seven contests. With their offense finally finding some rhythm, that should be enough to cover the 4.5 point spread.

 

Green Bay’s defense is okay, but not stout either. They rank 22nd in yards allowed per game. Mitch Trubisky finally woke up recently; he tossed 6 TD passes versus 2 picks in his previous two games. He also completed 75% of his passes during this stretch. I think the Bears will be able to move the ball at Lambeau Field this Sunday.

Chicago gets three extra days of rest after hosting the Cowboys last Thursday. They will be looking for payback after a 10-3 loss in the season opener to those same Packers.

 

I would pound this game more if Roquan Smith didn’t get hurt. I think he did a fine job this season at linebacker, but he landed on injured reserve a few days ago.

Divisional games tend to be more tight, and I don’t believe this one will be an exception. Take Da Bears and the points here.

 

PICK: Buffalo Bills +1 at Pittsburgh Steelers (rated 2 stars)

 

I like the way the Buffalo organization is headed. They are playing smart football and their players are buying Sean McDermott’s message. They proved they were serious contenders last week by limiting Lamar Jackson and his friends, a task that seemed impossible to do based on Baltimore’s unbelievable run.

 

The Bills are 3-0 ATS after a straight up loss this year; they don’t get crushed after losing a game.

 

Both teams have a very solid defense. However, I trust Buffalo’s offense a lot more and I think Josh Allen will do enough to get the W on the road.

 

Devlin Hodges is 3-0 as a starter. However, if you remove points scored by the defense and special teams, he generated 17.7 points per game on average (which included a game against a weak Arizona defense). He has not faced a defense like Buffalo’s and he’s likely to struggle a lot. I am aware that James Conner is likely to be back, but it won’t be enough with their third-string quarterback.

 

The Steelers lead the league with 33 takeaways. That’s out of the ordinary and difficult to sustain. Josh Allen has more experience trying to avoid turnovers than Hodges does. In the end, I believe Buffalo comes out on top to secure a playoff berth.

 

Gooooooood luck with your plays this week!

 

Professor MJ
 

[RocCityRoller]

On 12/13/2019 at 2:31 AM, BlackWing said:

Hello all, Ravens fan here from Balti, accidentally found your forum before our game last week. Very impressed with the awesome community you have here.

Just wanted to say 2 things.

1. Well done keeping LJax under 30 last week. Will definitely make us nervous if we see you again in playoffs. Was a good scrappy game.

2. Please beat the crap out of those Squeelers...  (Pats too)  Seriously... and completely.

 

Remain classy!

^_-v

 

Welcome, and we agree on trying to take care of business against New England and Pittsburgh.

 

For your part Baltimore can not sit their starters in the last week vs Pitt.

Edited December 15, 2019 by RocCityRoller

[LSHMEAB]

11 hours ago, Irv said:

 

I agree.  But, why can’t public opinion be a factor as well?

It's a factor, but generally speaking, public money is tied up in parlays or not enough to REALLY move lines because the aggregate amount wagered doesn't match the big money. Also, the books tend to fear/respect the big money more so there's that. Digging in the weeds a bit, but Pitt is the "right" side from a betting perspective. Right side is nowhere near 100 percent, so hopefully the Bills go out and handle business. The REALLY good teams win even when they're not "supposed" to. We weren't "supposed" to dominate Denver and we did. So there's also that. Just win.