Wk 15- BUF +2 @ PITT

[LSHMEAB]

12 hours ago, Irv said:

I feel the Bills consistently being the underdogs has a lot more to do with sucking for almost 20 years than the team that is on the field today.  The guys who set the lines factor that in. 

I can understand why you feel that way from the outside looking in, but it's just not the case. The guys who set the lines use a very detailed set of analytical data. This particular line is moving towards Pitt despite the fact that the public(which means the average Joe betting 20 or 30 bucks) picking the Bills. That's generally not good. 

 

The Denver analogy was a good one. That line moved all the way down to 4.5 despite the fact that the public liked the Bills. I'm hoping for a repeat, but Pitt is a more difficult matchup. We'll see what happens. Just gotta hope for the best.

[theAteam]

Technically a +2 line would indicate they think we will win by 1 due to the usual 3 points given due to home field right?

[mannc]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Well just locked in on moneyline, ticked up this AM and I got the Bills+120. That's good enough to start for me, we will see if it gets into the +130 range and I'll take more if there's movement later in the week. Feeling decent about my two teamer Bills+2/under getting 3-1...especially w/Connor and JJSS still dinged up. Their TE McDonald also got concussed but unsure how big a role he would have played vs Bills anyway. 

 

Other plays I have or am considering (feel free to follow...or NOT lmao I will not be held liable for any losses suffered from reading my gambling advice)

 

-JETS +600 @Ravens: OK worst play first lol...I am a sucker for big underperforming dogs and the Jets have talent, Ravens are due for a letdown w/Jackson apparently banged up, yaddayaddayadda whatever give me +600 and take my $$, this is still an NFL game right??? 

 

-VIKINGS -140 @Chargers: Think this is a bad matchup for SD and they can keep in close enough w/the offense but Vikings are battling for position and I don't see them letting this one slip by. 

 

-RAMS -120 @Cowboys: Don't like Dallas and I think they're crumbling. Meanwhile Rams are starting to figure things out and other than getting barnstormed by BALT the other week have actually been playing decent defense. This one actually opened w/Rams getting points and I hope @Mike in Horseheadsgot all of that before they took it down as he's the one who saw early line and alerted the good sb folks lol

 

-SAINTS -8.5 vsColts: I'm laying the points no problem, think the Saints cover and comfortably

 

-BEARS +175 @Packers: My upset. Think they can outmuscle GB and get enough out of Trubisky et al to win outright. Also have a hail mary Jets/Bears moneyline parlay that is basically lighting money on fire but what the hell...maybe @plenzmd1can talk me out of these into some better plays lmao

I like the Vikings, too, because the Chargers have zero HFA this time of year, but I don't like taking favorites on the moneyline.  

 

Love the Bears and the Rams this weekend.  

 

I too was tempted to put about $3 on the Jets moneyline, but I just can't see it.  Darnold against that defense, on the road?

Edited December 12, 2019 by mannc

[Beast]

William & Mary teammates face off on SNF

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2019/12/11/steelers-mike-tomlin-bills-sean-mcdermott-william-mary/4356299002/?fbclid=IwAR3YOYkL2oJJz8AowSxcBjJMcGrpao7CAsIeEAMp_lZrsVZjiy6KqRlYS8k
 

 

[Mike in Horseheads]

@GoBills808  since you posted Bills are -125 and Jets are +725

[ehfeuh57]

55 minutes ago, theAteam said:

Technically a +2 line would indicate they think we will win by 1 due to the usual 3 points given due to home field right?

On a neutral field you can assume we would be favored by 1, thats about as much as you can make of it

 

 

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I can understand why you feel that way from the outside looking in, but it's just not the case. The guys who set the lines use a very detailed set of analytical data. This particular line is moving towards Pitt despite the fact that the public(which means the average Joe betting 20 or 30 bucks) picking the Bills. That's generally not good. 

 

The Denver analogy was a good one. That line moved all the way down to 4.5 despite the fact that the public liked the Bills. I'm hoping for a repeat, but Pitt is a more difficult matchup. We'll see what happens. Just gotta hope for the best.

Meh. Bets were on Balt last week and lined moved toward Bills. It’s an art not a science.

[LSHMEAB]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Meh. Bets were on Balt last week and lined moved toward Bills. It’s an art not a science.

Oh this is 100 percent accurate. Personally, having worked in a book for 10 plus years, I PREFER to be against the public if the line is moving the opposite direction. Definitely should be taken with a grain of salt because even the BEST win roughly 54-55 percent. Just an observation.

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Oh this is 100 percent accurate. Personally, having worked in a book for 10 plus years, I PREFER to be against the public if the line is moving the opposite direction. Definitely should be taken with a grain of salt because even the BEST win roughly 54-55 percent. Just an observation.

I like playing the sharp side for sure but I try to keep in mind 1-they don’t always win and 2-they’re not the only ones who can move a line

[BigDingus]

I'm hoping the defense can really carry the game this next week.

The Steelers are 6-1 in their last 7 games, only losing to the Browns. 

The Bills haven't been good against the handful of good teams we've played this year, but our defense has risen to the challenge each time, and we're facing a 3rd string QB. 

Allen's just as likely to play like doo doo as he is decent, so I'm not even going to bother predicting what he'll do anymore. But if the defense can continue to stop the run, we'll get good field position and get FG's out of it at worst. 

They've held the best rushing offense to only 118 yards, a team that consists of Lamar Jackson & Mark Ingram, and team that got the ball OFTEN due to our ineptitude on offense, leading to constant punts. That's impressive.

And the prior week they held the 10th ranked rushing attack & 5th leading rusher Zeke Elliot to 103 yards. 

 

The Steelers rushing offense is 24th in the league, and their passing offense is 31st. Our defense should have a field day with that. If our offense, as pathetic as they can be, can just play a semi-competent game, we should win. 
*
*
*
*
TL;DR - Bills ***SHOULD*** win given the matchups, and having a great defense facing off against an abysmal offense. But our offense can shrink in meaningful games, Allen can look like he's throwing a football for the first time, and receivers can suddenly start having bricks for hands, so you never really know.

[CaptnCoke11]

2 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I'm hoping the defense can really carry the game this next week.

The Steelers are 6-1 in their last 7 games, only losing to the Browns. 

The Bills haven't been good against the handful of good teams we've played this year, but our defense has risen to the challenge each time, and we're facing a 3rd string QB. 

Allen's just as likely to play like doo doo as he is decent, so I'm not even going to bother predicting what he'll do anymore. But if the defense can continue to stop the run, we'll get good field position and get FG's out of it at worst. 

They've held the best rushing offense to only 118 yards, a team that consists of Lamar Jackson & Mark Ingram, and team that got the ball OFTEN due to our ineptitude on offense, leading to constant punts. That's impressive.

And the prior week they held the 10th ranked rushing attack & 5th leading rusher Zeke Elliot to 103 yards. 

 

The Steelers rushing offense is 24th in the league, and their passing offense is 31st. Our defense should have a field day with that. If our offense, as pathetic as they can be, can just play a semi-competent game, we should win. 
*
*
*
*
TL;DR - Bills ***SHOULD*** win given the matchups, and having a great defense facing off against an abysmal offense. But our offense can shrink in meaningful games, Allen can look like he's throwing a football for the first time, and receivers can suddenly start having bricks for hands, so you never really know.

Elliot pretty much had those yards in the first half.  The 2nd half they only gave him the ball a couple times.   Sometimes statistics are misleading. 

Edited December 12, 2019 by CaptnCoke11

[warrior9]

On 12/10/2019 at 9:08 PM, Dablitzkrieg said:

I'm nervous about this game.  Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season

And Baltimore never won in Buffalo before last weekend. 

[Greg S]

21 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

And Baltimore never won in Buffalo before last weekend. 

They have many times as the Colts.

[hemma]

I hope the heavy emphasis in practice this week is blitz recognition.

Will cut way back on the possibility of strip sacks/missed blocks.

[eball]

Something tells me the Rams are a sucker bet this week.  The line movement towards them is an overreaction to Dallas' recent struggles and I think the Cowboys win that game outright.

[Like A Mofo]

I really like Tennessee over Houston at home. Amazing to think that Ryan Tannehill is one of the best QB's over the past 6 weeks. Bill O'Brien is not a good coach and that will show itself on Sunday.

[Albany,n.y.]

2 hours ago, Greg S said:

They have many times as the Colts.

The Ravens are the old Cleveland Browns, not the Indianapolis Colts, so if you want to find out the last time before last Sunday, you have to look up the Browns @ Buffalo.  The results are the Browns had won in Buffalo on December 7, 1986 and didn't return until October 21,2007, when they did as the Baltimore Ravens.

 

[RyanC883]

On 12/11/2019 at 12:01 AM, Boatdrinks said:

The D is not equal. The PIT D causes havoc for QBs, creates takeaways like crazy and scores TDs. The Bills D beats you with coverages, confusion and discipline. They cause punts, but not many takeaways. It’s really a bad matchup. The onus is on the Bills offense to score with few playmakers vs a pressure defense. The PIT D and physical offensive players allow them to scrape by with a caretaker QB. The Bills do have major issues going toe to toe with exactly the type of defense they’ll be facing this week. NFL is really all about matchups. Just a quirk of the schedule that they get several of these defenses in December. 

 

no, it's really a game the Bills should win.  The Steelers D has feasted on weaker offenses over the past few weeks.  They do cause havoc, but if we have an offense we need to win.  We don't allow points on D, and the Duck is the worse QB we will face all year.  We should keep the Steelers under 10.  We need to score more than 10, or we have serious issues. 

[dave mcbride]

On 12/11/2019 at 12:01 AM, Boatdrinks said:

The D is not equal. The PIT D causes havoc for QBs, creates takeaways like crazy and scores TDs. The Bills D beats you with coverages, confusion and discipline. They cause punts, but not many takeaways. It’s really a bad matchup. The onus is on the Bills offense to score with few playmakers vs a pressure defense. The PIT D and physical offensive players allow them to scrape by with a caretaker QB. The Bills do have major issues going toe to toe with exactly the type of defense they’ll be facing this week. NFL is really all about matchups. Just a quirk of the schedule that they get several of these defenses in December. 

Excellent post. Seriously. 

[Albany,n.y.]

JuJu left practice today & may not play Sunday.  No links yet, WGR said so on One Bills Live.  

 

Edited December 12, 2019 by Albany,n.y.