Nihilarian Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 On 12/9/2019 at 11:57 AM, Shaw66 said: Well, that was disappointing. Whatever the reasons, Allen didn’t get the job done. 6. Singletary is a threat in the run game – not explosive, but dangerous. If he can learn to be a more effective pass catcher, it would help. He had on easy drop, and he also needed to find a way to get two hands on the ball Allen just barely overthrew probably wouldn’t have caught it, but he had to make a better play. 7. Brian Daboll’s game plan was lacking. The Bills have a good collection of offensive weapons, and Daboll couldn’t figure a way to utilize them effectively. When you look at the drives and series by the Bills this day I come away scratching my head as to what the Bills OC is doing? This season Allen has one of the worst deep completion percentages in the league and those deep passes are a high risk, low percentage completion rate for any QB, especially Allen. Four deep passes attempted by Allen in the first quarter, all incomplete. Jackson threw two deep, all incomplete. It was also a very windy day so why even attempt to throw deep? While I understand the idea behind the deep pass is to put the fear of god in the opposing defense so they back off stacking the box and think more about the nickle. What those deep passes by Buffalo managed to do was the opposite of what was intended as the Ravens saw that Allen wasn't going to hurt them deep they stepped up their blitzing. In the first series of the second quarter the Bills ran seven straight run plays by Singletary and the result was two first downs and Allen ran for another. The result of that drive was a FG and no sacks on Allen. Now, Singletary managed 42 yards rushing in that series on seven carries. That's six yards per carry. What happened in the very next Bills series is somewhat perplexing to me is after doing so well in the run game the Bills OC calls Gore's number for two runs while dialing up another deep pass that went incomplete. This series ended in a sack on Allen for -7 yards with a punt afterwards. The next series with 1:58 to go on the Ravens 49 because of a turnover. Five passes and a sack with a FG. More of the same in the second half as the Bills move away from running Singletary like they did and went pass happy...more sacks, more incomplete passes, more punts. The Bills best receiver this day was Singletary with 8 targets, 6 receptions for 29 yards. That #7 is glaring to me and in my view the biggest reason as to why the Buffalo Bills lost a game they could have/should have won. HARSH REALITY! Bills fans talking about playoffs...and yet don't realize that if the Bills OC keeping doing what he did or more importantly didn't do (Game plan was lacking even with extended to to prepare from Thurs night). The Bills might not win another game this season and finish 9-7 while missing the playoffs. That Ravens game might be the closest the Bills come to having a home playoff game this season.
Shaw66 Posted December 13, 2019 Author Posted December 13, 2019 4 hours ago, Nihilarian said: HARSH REALITY! Bills fans talking about playoffs...and yet don't realize that if the Bills OC keeping doing what he did or more importantly didn't do (Game plan was lacking even with extended to to prepare from Thurs night). The Bills might not win another game this season and finish 9-7 while missing the playoffs. That Ravens game might be the closest the Bills come to having a home playoff game this season. That's a discouraging thought, but I have to admit it's occurred to me. However, for the long term, I'm more optimistic about Daboll. Unless he leaves for a head coaching job, I think he will get better. I keep saying this, but it's true. McDermott runs a continuous improvement operation, and everyone in the organization is learning, all the time. Daboll's game plan for the Ravens, and his adjustments, are evaluated and Daboll is pushed to learn from the experience and be better next game and next season. It's that continuity and continuous learning that generates excellence. That's the environment that Belichick has built - McDaniel and Brady are always improving, they're always getting better, smarter, etc. McDermott and Daboll still have a lot to learn. Having said that, I have to say that your analysis of the play selection early in the game seems to be right on the money. As I look back, given how well Singletary ran early - not great, but with decent production, it's surprising that we didn't see more of him. And, as someone else said earlier in the thread, the wind dictated that the passing game should feature short, quick throws. Yes, Ravens knew that, too, but the answer is not to go into the game trying to fool them by throwing deep. The answer is to install wrinkles in the short passing game that will get guys open. Daboll will learn. 1
Nihilarian Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Daboll will learn. You would have to think so to retain any sort of hope for the season. The thing is we all saw this same thing against the Browns game (which was also very winnable) as Daboll went pass happy to the tune of 17 Allen passes in the first half and only 3 Singletary runs, 1 Gore run. Now, Daboll stated that the reason he didn't run Singletary more was because the Browns were stacking the box. I say bullcrap! Singletary 4 yards, Gore 4 yards, Singletary 9 yards, Singletary 8 yards. Singletary 3 rushes for 21 yards= 7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, just like in the Browns game Daboll had Allen playing right into the teeth of that Cleveland defense against the #2 sacker in the NFL at the time in Myles Garrett. Who had two QB hits on Allen along with a bunch of pressures. Allen 22 of 41 for 266 yards, 2 rushing TDs. In my view, either Brian Daboll is attempting to force Josh Allen into passing situations which sort of make no sense in an effort to make him better? (all those deep passing attempts on a windy day) (Allen needed to throw the ball with velocity that day so the ball didn't drift all over and get intercepted. The announcer stated he should throw with more air under it with touch... and that ball would be picked off. That announcer, like Daboll were in the booth and didn't take the wind into account.) Or, he is simply being out coached again and again? Daboll had extra time to think up a decent game plan with plenty of film on what the Ravens have done all season...and failed to dial up a game winning scheme. Adjustments during the game, Dabolls answer, keep passing... A cursory glance at Allen’s incompletions Sunday (22 in all, plus another three on plays that were called back) shows just how high a priority pressure was. The Ravens came after him like they were auditioning for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” According to an unofficial review of the game, the Ravens sent four or fewer pass rushers on just five of those 25 unsuccessful drop-backs — an 80% blitz rate. On Allen’s five incompletions in the game’s decisive drive, Martindale sent six rushers three times and saved a seven-man rush for the knockout blow. https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-ravens-bills-defense-20191209-ci4i7cxeuzenfnalwtcxmettjm-story.html I think the man is simply not that good and looking at his coaching history proves this.
Happy Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: Daboll will learn. I'm not convinced about this. He didn't learn from forcing the passing game vs Philly as evidenced by forcing deep throws on a windy day vs Baltimore. Josh hasn't done a good job with the deep throw all year long, yet Daboll still tries to fool other teams with it, which isn't working. I've mentioned this a couple of times in other threads: Daboll takes an academic approach to the offense where the play as designed is what matters, not the opponent, weather conditions, where Josh or anyone else is development-wise. Not a sign of a good OC. I think Daboll draws up good plays and I don't necessarily dislike his offense, I just don't think he should be the one that runs it; he shouldn't be calling the plays. I'm not sure of any examples of someone else calling the plays in lieu of the OC, but I think this might be necessary if Daboll stays in Buffalo. I agree with the takes by @Nihilarian who does a better job of expanding on this than I do. I don't however see the Bills going 9-7 as the defense will propel the team past Pitt and NYJ, so I can see 11-5. Unfortunately, they could be one and done in the playoffs given the offense disfunction under Daboll's command.
Billsatlastin2018 Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) Fine analysis, Shaw! 1) It was a heavyweight slug fest. But once again, the Bills failed the test. It’s no shame to be outslugged by a team that is odds on to win the SB. It’s no shame to be beaten by the league’s MVP, who has now engineered 10 Ws consecutively, against more than one, QUALITY PLAYOFF TEAMS! Fact is, the Bills can’t beat these teams. 2) Only fools don’t believe that Jackson is far superior to Josh- at this juncture. He’s better at everything- Passing accuracy, running, but most critically- decision making! 3) The Bills loaded up on the D and it is very good. Unfortunately, the Ravens have a better one and are certainly not afraid to challenge young & old QBs to beat them, with their arms. There are several excellent Ds this year and unfortunately, the Bills are gonna meet 3 in a row at this critical juncture of the Season. 4) Because they loaded up on D, they have a nice Brown (#2 anywhere else), a decent little number 3 in Beasley. But they lack, what EVERY superior NFL teams have- yuuuge (6-4 +) TE and/or WR #1s. The Ravens have 3 TEs @ 6-4, don’t they? NO surprise that a Gronkless Cheatriot team is spinning their wheels! The Bills have a stone hands Knox! ?? And OBD, keeps passing on these essential, talented big targets to fit other priorities- despite playing up to 1/2 the season in wind, cold, rain, sleet & snow! Stubbornly stupid through the entire Millennium. 5) The Kicking game is a real minus this year. Hurt the Bills and cost them games- obviously. In the end, the Bills are pretty decent, but if Allen can’t outslug the Steelers, they’ll be a #6 at best. They’ll be crowding the box again, so he’d better learn to hit a long ball to back them off! If not, a mildly entertaining season & modest improvement, without the cachet of any real success story. Edited December 13, 2019 by Billsatlastin2018
BringBackFlutie Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said: I'm not convinced about this. He didn't learn from forcing the passing game vs Philly as evidenced by forcing deep throws on a windy day vs Baltimore. Josh hasn't done a good job with the deep throw all year long, yet Daboll still tries to fool other teams with it, which isn't working. I've mentioned this a couple of times in other threads: Daboll takes an academic approach to the offense where the play as designed is what matters, not the opponent, weather conditions, where Josh or anyone else is development-wise. Not a sign of a good OC. I think Daboll draws up good plays and I don't necessarily dislike his offense, I just don't think he should be the one that runs it; he shouldn't be calling the plays. I'm not sure of any examples of someone else calling the plays in lieu of the OC, but I think this might be necessary if Daboll stays in Buffalo. I agree with the takes by @Nihilarian who does a better job of expanding on this than I do. I don't however see the Bills going 9-7 as the defense will propel the team past Pitt and NYJ, so I can see 11-5. Unfortunately, they could be one and done in the playoffs given the offense disfunction under Daboll's command. You make an interesting point, and it certainly seems that way, but I thought one of the things about Daboll is that he tailors the offense to the opponent, and that's why we don't necessarily have an identity. That's probably true, but it fails for a few reasons that I'm going to guess at. This leads me to your other point about maybe Daboll just shouldn't call the plays, since he's obviously not great at tailoring his plays to the defense in-game. I do think his game-plan, overall, is originally tailored to the opposing defense, but not adjusted. To further your point, I think it's that the game-plan itself is composed of plays that don't really fit his personnel. If Josh Allen isn't good at throwing the deep ball, or it's windy, just install all the OTHER cover 0 beaters out there. Lastly, my point is, that there seems to be a fundamental issue with his planning- his inability to take personnel into account causes him to call games from a play/scheme perspective, rather than a match-up perspective. This offense is very much predicated on match-ups, and, other than Josh throwing incomplete to Brown at the end, I didn't see the propensity to exploit match-ups, and this offense simply doesn't work without it. That may lead back to the point of in-game adjusting. If Singletary's lined up on a safety every play, keep throwing it to him, even if it doesn't work for a play. If he's just killing them in the run game, regardless of men in the box, because they're susceptible to his running style, keep finding ways to get him the ball. If Knox is lined up on a smaller CB, get him a quick slant and let him run over DBs, while the LBers are all blitzing. But it's like none of these things are recognized, and it's just a one-dimensional view of "they line up in this package, or show blitz on this down, we run this play to beat it." You have to combine that with an understanding of how your personnel match up with their players and how your personnel execute the plays you're choosing in the first place. To be fair, though, I'm sure a lot of the exploiting match-ups issue is on Allen pre-snap. Edited December 13, 2019 by BringBackFlutie 1
Logic Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) I always feel like there's a fine line to walk when discussing blame for an offense's failures. In the case of the Ravens game, my opinion is that Allen needs to hit a few of those early deep throws. If an offensive coordinator's scheme and gameplan are getting guys wide open 30 yards downfield, it's a good gameplan. It's Josh Allen's job to hit those open receivers. Some will counter by saying that since Daboll knows that the long ball isn't a strength of Allen's, he should be gameplanning ways to get shorter routes open and not depend on Allen to hit those long throws. There may be some merit to that. On the other hand, if a defense chooses to blitz the bejesus out of you and squat on short routes all together, not respecting the deep passing game WHATSOEVER, there's only so much an offensive coordinator can do. We saw this during the Chan Gailey years. At some point, your quarterback needs to be able to punish the defense with long completions when they're packing the box and squatting on short stuff. If Josh Allen is to become the franchise QB we all desperately want him to be, he NEEDS to learn to hit on those deep passes. Otherwise, teams will continue to defend him the way they defended Fitzpatrick: pack the box, squat on short throws, dare the offense to beat you deep. Again, there's only so much Daboll -- or ANY offensive coordinator -- can do if the opposing defense doesn't respect your ability to go deep. Not only that, but with an arm like Allen's, its downright criminal that the Bills aren't able to generate a vertical passing game. This needs to change before I'm willing to assign much blame to Brian Daboll. Edited December 13, 2019 by Logic
Shaw66 Posted December 13, 2019 Author Posted December 13, 2019 Nihil and Gilmore - When I say Daboll will learn, I mean over years, not from week to week. Andy Reid wasn't the same coach 20 years ago as he is today. Learning is cumulative. What McDermott is building is an environment where learning and growth is more or less mandatory, and it's more or less assured. And it's an environment when learning is insitutionalized, so when someone leaves, the learning remains. McDermott started from near zero three years ago. We've seen the results, and I'd say those results are good to nearly spectacular. The learning will continue. And the talent accumulation will continue. I agree with those who argue that Daboll is making mistakes. McDermott would say "let the process work." I can wait.
BringBackFlutie Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Logic said: I always feel like there's a fine line to walk when discussing blame for an offense's failures. In the case of the Ravens game, my opinion is that Allen needs to hit a few of those early deep throws. If an offensive coordinator's scheme and gameplan are getting guys wide open 30 yards downfield, it's a good gameplan. It's Josh Allen's job to hit those open receivers. Some will counter by saying that since Daboll knows that the long ball isn't a strength of Allen's, he should be gameplanning ways to get shorter routes open and not depend on Allen to hit those long throws. There may be some merit to that. On the other hand, if a defense chooses to blitz the bejesus out of you and squat on short routes all together, not respecting the deep passing game WHATSOEVER, there's only so much an offensive coordinator can do. We saw this during the Chan Gailey years. At some point, your quarterback needs to be able to punish the defense with long completions when they're packing the box and squatting on short stuff. If Josh Allen is to become the franchise QB we all desperately want him to be, he NEEDS to learn to hit on those deep passes. Otherwise, teams will continue to defend him the way they defended Fitzpatrick: pack the box, squat on short throws, dare the offense to beat you deep. Again, there's only so much Daboll -- or ANY offensive coordinator -- can do if the opposing defense doesn't respect your ability to go deep. Not only that, but with an arm like Allen's, its downright criminal that the Bills aren't able to generate a vertical passing game. This needs to change before I'm willing to assign much blame to Brian Daboll. There's so much more to the deep ball than go routes, and there's so much more than dropping dimes over the shoulder on said routes. When a WR flashes on Allen, rather than run a straight go route, he hits them fine. There are other routes that could be called deep. Even still, when the WR is one-on-one with his man, and can get a step on him on the go route, it doesn't mean that he's wide open, and it doesn't mean that it should take a perfect pass to hit him. The WR (and chemistry with said WR) has a lot to do with it. Only look as far back as Tyrod Taylor with Sammy Watkins/Percy Harvin, and without. When he didn't have either, I didn't see him complete one deep throw. When he had them, he had the highest percentage completion and highest rate of deep balls in the league. Also, if Allen can set his feet, he actually has shown an ability to drop it over the top, but he needs some time to gain the consistency and a little more feel for the rush. This is not all to hate on Daboll or defend Allen, by the way, but to say that Allen must make the deep throws on specific plays is a bit too simplistic to me. I think there are multiple things that Allen, his WRs, and Daboll can do to get the ball deep and make the defense pay. Allen's ability to hit a go route in stride is 1/3 of that equation, but nobody is working on the other 2/3 to try to win right now, and give Allen more time to work on his portion. Lastly, on the topic of Josh Allen and go routes- I've got a holiday bonus for you, since shipping across the country is rather pricey: The interesting thing, is that the book on Allen has been written since last year, and everyone that can, has blitzed the hell out of him since then. It looks like he's not fixing that weakness, as defenses keep blitzing. Now...watch the games. Last year, he was weak against the blitz because he didn't know his reads, and blitzing him frequently caused him to bail the pocket (sometimes even when you didn't blitz) and make bad throws. At the beginning of this year, he stopped bailing the pocket so much, stayed in, and tried to force the ball, with sloppy footwork, into tight windows- not knowing who was the open guy behind the blitz- and throwing picks. Now, he's staying in the pocket, reading where to get the ball (in this case, the go route), and missing the WR on a throw with the same sloppy footwork. As I previously mentioned, Allen has shown an ability to drop a ball over the top, here and there, when he executes good form and sets his feet. However, his form is often sloppy, as he short-steps or throws off his back foot when the pocket starts to close in front of him. I'm not sure if he needs to trust the room in front of him, or if he needs to sidestep, or take a smidge less time to make the throw, but the footwork needs to be cleaned up to complete those throws. That would be the NEXT thing to fix, in, apparently, a multi-part solution to beating the blitz. It's hard to see, in these blitz-heavy games, that he's fixed so many of those parts already, but that's because he hasn't fixed enough of them to beat the blitz yet. By the same token, we CAN see that he's fixed a lot of those parts when he's not being blitzed. He rarely bails the pocket and scans the field. He reads the right throws and changes plays according to alignments and knows how to beat different concepts, and, when not against the blitz, has cleaned up his footwork a lot. We get this pattern where it looks like he's grown, but he hasn't, but he has, on a game to game basis. However, actually, all of the growth is there, but isn't always apparent when you factor in that game's variables, and his next goal as a QB is painfully identified. ...So as you said, non-linear. Case in point. ?? Edited December 13, 2019 by BringBackFlutie 2
Meatloaf63 Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 5 hours ago, Shaw66 said: That's a discouraging thought, but I have to admit it's occurred to me. However, for the long term, I'm more optimistic about Daboll. Unless he leaves for a head coaching job, I think he will get better. I keep saying this, but it's true. McDermott runs a continuous improvement operation, and everyone in the organization is learning, all the time. Daboll's game plan for the Ravens, and his adjustments, are evaluated and Daboll is pushed to learn from the experience and be better next game and next season. It's that continuity and continuous learning that generates excellence. That's the environment that Belichick has built - McDaniel and Brady are always improving, they're always getting better, smarter, etc. McDermott and Daboll still have a lot to learn. Having said that, I have to say that your analysis of the play selection early in the game seems to be right on the money. As I look back, given how well Singletary ran early - not great, but with decent production, it's surprising that we didn't see more of him. And, as someone else said earlier in the thread, the wind dictated that the passing game should feature short, quick throws. Yes, Ravens knew that, too, but the answer is not to go into the game trying to fool them by throwing deep. The answer is to install wrinkles in the short passing game that will get guys open. Daboll will learn. Not sure he will learn, he seems to in spurts but then regresses into stupidity. He got to get a better feel for the game and also prepare himself and the players for a heavy blitz. Almost two years now and he has no answers...
Logic Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said: There's so much more to the deep ball than go routes, and there's so much more than dropping dimes over the shoulder on said routes. When a WR flashes on Allen, rather than run a straight go route, he hits them fine. There are other routes that could be called deep. Even still, when the WR is one-on-one with his man, and can get a step on him on the go route, it doesn't mean that he's wide open, and it doesn't mean that it should take a perfect pass to hit him. The WR (and chemistry with said WR) has a lot to do with it. Only look as far back as Tyrod Taylor with Sammy Watkins/Percy Harvin, and without. When he didn't have either, I didn't see him complete one deep throw. When he had them, he had the highest percentage completion and highest rate of deep balls in the league. Also, if Allen can set his feet, he actually has shown an ability to drop it over the top, but he needs some time to gain the consistency and a little more feel for the rush. This is not all to hate on Daboll or defend Allen, by the way, but to say that Allen must make the deep throws on specific plays is a bit too simplistic to me. I think there are multiple things that Allen, his WRs, and Daboll can do to get the ball deep and make the defense pay. Allen's ability to hit a go route in stride is 1/3 of that equation, but nobody is working on the other 2/3 to try to win right now, while Allen works on his portion. Lastly, on the topic of Josh Allen and go routes- I've got a holiday bonus for you, since shipping across the country is rather pricey: The interesting thing, is that the book on Allen has been written since last year, and everyone that can, has blitzed the hell out of him since then. It looks like he's not fixing that weakness, as defenses keep blitzing. Now...watch the games. Last year, he was weak against the blitz because he didn't know his reads, and blitzing him frequently caused him to bail the pocket (sometimes even when you didn't blitz) and make bad throws. At the beginning of this year, he stopped bailing the pocket so much, stayed in, and tried to force the ball, with sloppy footwork, into tight windows- not knowing who was the open guy behind the blitz- and throwing picks. Now, he's staying in the pocket, reading where to get the ball (in this case, the go route), and missing the WR on a throw with the same sloppy footwork. As I previously mentioned, Allen has shown an ability to drop a ball over the top, here and there, when he executes good form and sets his feet. However, his form is often sloppy, as he short-steps or throws off his back foot when the pocket starts to close in front of him. I'm not sure if he needs to trust the room in front of him, or if he needs to sidestep, or take a smidge less time to make the throw, but the footwork needs to be cleaned up to complete those throws. That would be the NEXT thing to fix, in, apparently, a multi-part solution to beating the blitz. It's hard to see, in these blitz-heavy games, that he's fixed so many of those parts already, but that's because he hasn't fixed enough of them to beat the blitz yet. By the same token, we CAN see that he's fixed a lot of those parts when he's not being blitzed. He rarely bails the pocket and scans the field. He reads the right throws and changes plays according to alignments and knows how to beat different concepts, and, when not against the blitz, has cleaned up his footwork a lot. We get this pattern where it looks like he's grown, but he hasn't, but he has, on a game to game basis. However, actually, all of the growth is there, but isn't always apparent when you factor in that game's variables, and his next goal as a QB is painfully identified. ...So as you said, non-linear. Case in point. ?? Good stuff. One big problem is that Allen isn't just bad at the deep passes right now, he's comically, HISTORICALLY bad at them. I believe I read that he's 55th in the league right now in completions that travel over 30 air yards. I don't even know how that's POSSIBLE. He's rated worse than guys like David Blough and Courtland Sutton, though, so he's...well....he's pretty damn bad at it right now. If he can improve to league average or even slightly BELOW league average, it'll go a long way toward helping the Bills offense and breaking that vaunted 300-yard game barrier that everyone talks about.
Nihilarian Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 On the deep throws against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson didn't complete his deeper throws either, save for that one to the TE. In actuality, it went 21 yards in the air. My take is that Josh has been told to limit the turnovers since the NE game so if he is going to err, it will be an overthrow rather than under throwing. My point though is when the Bills OC sees that his QB is having great difficulty on the day AND the Bills ran Singletary seven straight times effectively in the first series in the second quarter to gain two first downs. Then Allen ran for another first down in that same drive. Why, why, why keep calling pass plays the rest of the game? Its like all Daboll thought about is working the passing game despite everything else. The thing is, again going back to Miami, Denver, Dallas with Bills rushes vs passes. Miami, 34 rushes vs 33 passes. Denver, 47 rushes vs 25 passes. (at that time Denver had one of the best run defenses in the league #4 if I recall correctly) Dallas, 34 rushes vs 25 passes. Cleveland, 20 rushes vs 41 passes. Baltimore, 23 rushes vs 39 passes. In conclusion: want to win? Run the ball more often and pass less. Yes, Buffalo is currently #6 in rushing attempts, #5 in rushing yards. However, Josh Allen has 439 of those rushing yards with 8 rushing TDs. The Vikings Dalvin Cook has 1108 rushing yards with 13 rushing TDs. Lamar Jackson has 1103 rushing yards, 7 TDs, Mark Ingram has 963 rushing yards 10 TDs.
Happy Posted December 13, 2019 Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: Nihil and Gilmore - When I say Daboll will learn, I mean over years, not from week to week. Andy Reid wasn't the same coach 20 years ago as he is today. Learning is cumulative. What McDermott is building is an environment where learning and growth is more or less mandatory, and it's more or less assured. And it's an environment when learning is insitutionalized, so when someone leaves, the learning remains. McDermott started from near zero three years ago. We've seen the results, and I'd say those results are good to nearly spectacular. The learning will continue. And the talent accumulation will continue. I agree with those who argue that Daboll is making mistakes. McDermott would say "let the process work." I can wait. Logical post and I get where you're coming from. You may be able to wait, but how many others can say the same? I'd image very few. There are too many examples of teams turning things around quickly to wait for a process with the speed and nimbleness of an ocean crossing cargo liner (with regards to offense production) to manifest itself. At the very least, it is not fair to the defense.
Shaw66 Posted December 13, 2019 Author Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Meatloaf63 said: Not sure he will learn, he seems to in spurts but then regresses into stupidity. He got to get a better feel for the game and also prepare himself and the players for a heavy blitz. Almost two years now and he has no answers... As someone said, the process isn't linear. EVERYONE grows in spurts, regresses, etc. Last season the offense was 30th in yards and 30th in points. This season they're 20th in yards and 20th in points. I don't think there's any reason to assume that the oline got better, the receivers got better, the running backs got better, the QB got better, the tight ends got better but the OC didn't improve. It's much more likely that the Bills are better in all phases on offense because everyone got better, including Daboll and McDermott. And they will be better next season they were this season. People learn from experience, which means they learn from mistakes. Daboll and McDermott are making mistakes every week - no doubt. The beauty of McDermott's process is that it fosters continuous learning and improving. There is no reason to believe that Daboll isn't improving. Look at it this way. If the conclusion is that Daboll isn't doing the job well enough and isn't improving, you fire him. Who do you hire? Some other OC who hasn't had success as an OC. Why hasn't he had success? Either because he's never been an OC before, or he has been an OC and failed. Why failed? Because if he'd been successful, he'd still be an OC or he'd be an HC. So you hire a new OC who hasn't had success. That means he also hasn't learned the things that Daboll hasn't learned. How does that leave you any better off? It certainly doesn't bring you closer to success. That's the point about continuity. If you have a culture that helps people grow and learn, continuity is critical to success, because the benefits of learning are cumulative. The only people who don't learn in a culture like McDermott's are the people who aren't motivated, aren't internally driven. But McDermott won't hire anyone, player or coach, who isn't driven like that, so I assume Daboll is driven. If he's driven, he'll learn. Frankly, I've been thinking the same thing about people who are writing off Cody Ford or saying he should move to guard. Ford is going to be better next season than he's been this season. The process will make him better. Until they've reached their prime, players get better. Ford hasn't reached his prime. No rookie has. 1
Meatloaf63 Posted December 14, 2019 Posted December 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Shaw66 said: As someone said, the process isn't linear. EVERYONE grows in spurts, regresses, etc. Last season the offense was 30th in yards and 30th in points. This season they're 20th in yards and 20th in points. I don't think there's any reason to assume that the oline got better, the receivers got better, the running backs got better, the QB got better, the tight ends got better but the OC didn't improve. It's much more likely that the Bills are better in all phases on offense because everyone got better, including Daboll and McDermott. And they will be better next season they were this season. People learn from experience, which means they learn from mistakes. Daboll and McDermott are making mistakes every week - no doubt. The beauty of McDermott's process is that it fosters continuous learning and improving. There is no reason to believe that Daboll isn't improving. Look at it this way. If the conclusion is that Daboll isn't doing the job well enough and isn't improving, you fire him. Who do you hire? Some other OC who hasn't had success as an OC. Why hasn't he had success? Either because he's never been an OC before, or he has been an OC and failed. Why failed? Because if he'd been successful, he'd still be an OC or he'd be an HC. So you hire a new OC who hasn't had success. That means he also hasn't learned the things that Daboll hasn't learned. How does that leave you any better off? It certainly doesn't bring you closer to success. That's the point about continuity. If you have a culture that helps people grow and learn, continuity is critical to success, because the benefits of learning are cumulative. The only people who don't learn in a culture like McDermott's are the people who aren't motivated, aren't internally driven. But McDermott won't hire anyone, player or coach, who isn't driven like that, so I assume Daboll is driven. If he's driven, he'll learn. Frankly, I've been thinking the same thing about people who are writing off Cody Ford or saying he should move to guard. Ford is going to be better next season than he's been this season. The process will make him better. Until they've reached their prime, players get better. Ford hasn't reached his prime. No rookie has. We’ve given away two or three wins so far from not being prepared, he needs to figure it out this week or play offs are getting dicey. Missing them would be a crushing blow to the process. We should have beat New England the first time, really should have beat Cleveland and quite frankly should have beat Baltimore. We should really fighting for the division from a position of strength, if they have learned from their mistakes it will be ok, if they haven’t, then this season goes down the tubes quickly....
Shaw66 Posted December 14, 2019 Author Posted December 14, 2019 58 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said: We’ve given away two or three wins so far from not being prepared, he needs to figure it out this week or play offs are getting dicey. Missing them would be a crushing blow to the process. We should have beat New England the first time, really should have beat Cleveland and quite frankly should have beat Baltimore. We should really fighting for the division from a position of strength, if they have learned from their mistakes it will be ok, if they haven’t, then this season goes down the tubes quickly.... I agree with what you say about those games but it doesn't mean Daboll has to go. I think Daboll is just like Allen - he is a guy growing into the job. It's just as easy to look at those games and conclude that Allen has to go. Nobody is saying that. Just like Allen, Daboll is going to get better at his job. Its disappointing that he isnt better right now, bu we just have to wait. 1
oldmanfan Posted December 14, 2019 Posted December 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said: We’ve given away two or three wins so far from not being prepared, he needs to figure it out this week or play offs are getting dicey. Missing them would be a crushing blow to the process. We should have beat New England the first time, really should have beat Cleveland and quite frankly should have beat Baltimore. We should really fighting for the division from a position of strength, if they have learned from their mistakes it will be ok, if they haven’t, then this season goes down the tubes quickly.... So you’re saying we should be 12-1, we winning one of the last three we’re in the playoffs, but the season could go down the tubes quickly? Easy does it.
Meatloaf63 Posted December 14, 2019 Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, oldmanfan said: So you’re saying we should be 12-1, we winning one of the last three we’re in the playoffs, but the season could go down the tubes quickly? Easy does it. Could be, but we could finish 9-7 and out of the playoffs due too poor execution and poor play calling.. I don’t think the Pegulas would do anything drastic, not sure what our head coach would do, probably nothing, but it would really put the pressure on for results next year...
GoBills808 Posted December 14, 2019 Posted December 14, 2019 10 hours ago, Logic said: Good stuff. One big problem is that Allen isn't just bad at the deep passes right now, he's comically, HISTORICALLY bad at them. I believe I read that he's 55th in the league right now in completions that travel over 30 air yards. I don't even know how that's POSSIBLE. He's rated worse than guys like David Blough and Courtland Sutton, though, so he's...well....he's pretty damn bad at it right now. If he can improve to league average or even slightly BELOW league average, it'll go a long way toward helping the Bills offense and breaking that vaunted 300-yard game barrier that everyone talks about. Courtland Sutton is a wide receiver
oldmanfan Posted December 14, 2019 Posted December 14, 2019 4 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said: Could be, but we could finish 9-7 and out of the playoffs due too poor execution and poor play calling.. I don’t think the Pegulas would do anything drastic, not sure what our head coach would do, probably nothing, but it would really put the pressure on for results next year... There is no way they lose to the Jets at home.
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