Why You Shouldn’t Feel Completely Dejected Over Josh Allen’s Poor Performance

[VW82]

One of the main issues I continue to have with Josh is his poor starts. On the year in the 1st quarter he's thrown for 613 yards, 6.1 Y/A, 71 QB rating. It's just so rough when your QB comes out not executing. There were many people to blame throughout the game but Josh set the tone early with all those poor passes and the fumble.  

 

I don't think dejected is the right word as he's obviously not ready for games like this (see NE) and so expectations were lower but it's hard not to be disappointed when the defense plays so well and you lose. 

 

To those putting up the 146 yards number, don't forget to include his rushes and sacks (some of which were his fault). It was 114 total net yards on 2.78 yards per drop back. That isn't just the result of some drops and play calling.  

Edited December 9, 2019 by VW82

[ngbills]

One game is never something to be completely dejected over. And what we saw in this game was not unusual. This was the bad Josh sneaking out again. He has some bad habits as young QB's do that he cannot seem to shake. 

 

The open receivers he missed were huge. He hits one of those early in the game and it changes things a lot. Balt may have to rethink playing cover 0which they essentially did all game. To me that is the biggest concern still with him and he has to figure that out. We saw Jackson hit the open guy and JA miss the open guy. That was basically the difference in the game. 

 

He also needs to get better at throwing the ball away. Most of his sacks he did have a chance to throw the ball away. Cant take those 10 yards losses. 

 

Wind was actually not bad so not an excuse.

 

No moral victories. Just because he only played a bit worse than everyone else should not be a positive. He played much worse than Garopollo, who was playing on the road. Muchg worse than Brady who was also on the road. And similar numbers to guys like FInley and Rudolph. Lets not be proud of the that. Higher bar. 

 

Took the one one ones when he got them. They played one on one almost every play...

 

 

[Big Blitz]

That's the best secondary since Legion of Boom and after seeing that up close yesterday:

 

1.  Allen is a franchise QB.  He's going to be a top 10 QB in the league and elite once he gets consistent with that deep ball.  If you only evaluated him yesterday based on the #s and not consider the competition and exactly what the OP posted then you are WGR level dumb.  

 

2. Baltimore is going to the Super Bowl bc of that D.

 

3. I watched that game and it felt like we were missing a starting WR (meaning we need a #1).  I think the deep balls are a mess bc that really isnt what Brown does best and then that leaves Foster......who is clearly not scaring anyone you just need to protect the deep ball on him.  He doesn't scare you over the middle and he isnt a great route runner.

 

 

 

We're on to Pittsburgh. 

[RichRiderBills]

5 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I would.  

 

Sacks: PIT: 48, Denver: 31.   (PIT leads NFL) 

 

INT: PIT 18, Den 9. (PIT 2nd) 

 

Fumble recoveries: PIT 15, Den 8. (PIT 2nd). 

 

Not only is PIT ranked 1 higher on "overall pass D", which takes into consideration who you are playing, the game time (garbage time factors into that), PIT's D is on the field a ton due to its offense.   

 

 

This is a great take.  The game plan was awful.  I thought I was watching a HS offense.  McD stated the offense did not get into a rythym.  Well, gee, no shi*.  Your OC was awful. 

 

The slow starts by Daboll need to stop.  It was a problem against bad teams, and now is a major issue (costing games) against balanced teams like Balt.  

 

 

Whats ridiculous is that Daboll seems clueless HOW to get Josh in a rythem. When we mix in the flare pass/ screens , the misdirection stuff, amd shorter passess, even the soft gains, Josh seemed to ge in a flow.

 

We spent far too much on straight ahead runs then a deep huck. 

[ngbills]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

That's the best secondary since Legion of Boom and after seeing that up close yesterday:

 

1.  Allen is a franchise QB.  He's going to be a top 10 QB in the league and elite once he gets consistent with that deep ball.  If you only evaluated him yesterday based on the #s and not consider the competition and exactly what the OP posted then you are WGR level dumb.  

 

2. Baltimore is going to the Super Bowl bc of that D.

 

3. I watched that game and it felt like we were missing a starting WR (meaning we need a #1).  I think the deep balls are a mess bc that really isnt what Brown does best and then that leaves Foster......who is clearly not scaring anyone you just need to protect the deep ball on him.  He doesn't scare you over the middle and he isnt a great route runner.

 

 

 

We're on to Pittsburgh. 

Whose D is better - ours or BALT?

[LSHMEAB]

22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I've only gotten through about 2/3 of the 1st half of the game so far.

 

But I wish people, including yourself, would roll up that "need to see more on those deep passes" and drop it in the recycling.  Does Allen need to hit those eventually?  Of course.  But taking a couple shots and missing is no harm no foul.

 

Gotta disagree here. I think when you take the number of deep shot yards left on the field by poorly thrown balls in totality, there is harm. Sure, you move on to the next down. But you don't get that many chances in the course of a game to hit those. It's like an AB in baseball; when the pitcher hangs a breaking ball and the batter gets out in front of it and smashes it down the line foul, there's harm. It's not strike 3, but you missed a golden opportunity.

 

Not quite sure what the answer is, but JA needs to start hitting some home runs if he's going to take that next step.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He didn't have a good game against Denver?

I'm an Allen guy...he had a BAD game [against Ravens]

 

The question will be, now that it's on film, will he rebound against Pittsburgh and NE?

[ngbills]

1 minute ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Whats ridiculous is that Daboll seems clueless HOW to get Josh in a rythem. When we mix in the flare pass/ screens , the misdirection stuff, amd shorter passess, even the soft gains, Josh seemed to ge in a flow.

 

We spent far too much on straight ahead runs then a deep huck. 

Some yes and some no to this. Josh missing the deep balls impact how the game can be called. They literally played one on one with no safety much of the game because they had no concern Josh could hit one of those. That shrinks the field drastically. 

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

I'm sorry.  17/39 is putrid.  Needs to be better.  Yes, some drops, but also at least 5 poorly thrown balls that would have led to at least 14 points

I counted three drops - one by Beasley on a deep-ish throw, one by Knox that should have been an easy first down, and one by Singletary at the LOS that probably wouldn't have gone for much. 

[ngbills]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Gotta disagree here. I think when you take the number of deep shot yards left on the field by poorly thrown balls in totality, there is harm. Sure, you move on to the next down. But you don't get that many chances in the course of a game to hit those. It's like an AB in baseball; when the pitcher hangs a breaking ball and the batter gets out in front of it and smashes it down the line foul, there's harm. It's not strike 3, but you missed a golden opportunity.

 

Not quite sure what the answer is, but JA needs to start hitting some home runs if he's going to take that next step.

As we saw in the game. What if Jackson misses on their long TD pass. That was the diff in the game. Josh hits on one of his Jackson misses his and Bills maybe win. 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, ngbills said:

As we saw in the game. What if Jackson misses on their long TD pass. That was the diff in the game. Josh hits on one of his Jackson misses his and Bills maybe win. 

I will say that was a perfectly designed and executed play with far less degree of difficulty on the throw, but the point stands. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I counted three drops - one by Beasley on a deep-ish throw, one by Knox that should have been an easy first down, and one by Singletary at the LOS that probably wouldn't have gone for much. 

You missed some then

[mannc]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I counted three drops - one by Beasley on a deep-ish throw, one by Knox that should have been an easy first down, and one by Singletary at the LOS that probably wouldn't have gone for much. 

There was also a very nice deep ball to Singletary that should have been caught.

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The question will be, now that it's on film, will he rebound against Pittsburgh and NE?

 

Indeed

 

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I counted three drops - one by Beasley on a deep-ish throw, one by Knox that should have been an easy first down, and one by Singletary at the LOS that probably wouldn't have gone for much. 

 

I gave McKenzie a drop on the end zone ball that hit him in the hands

Just now, mannc said:

There was also a very nice deep ball to Singletary that should have been caught.

 

I feel like Devin mis-timed his jump; he probably could've had that one

[Mango]

Most had a TD (except Watson, Dalton, Goff) 

Everybody threw a pick, Josh did not, but he dd lose a fumble

Josh threw for the least yards

Josh had the worst Y/A

Josh had the worst completion percentage 

 

I do not understand the comparable. Dude had a very bad game against a good defense. It is OK, as long as it does not become a pattern moving forward. I don't understand the need for everybody to say he did fine. He didn't. 

 

He was bad. Play calling was bad. Offensive line was bad. All of these things can be true, and it does not have to be a pie/mutually exclusive. He has been better the last 3 weeks. Concerning to have this bad of showing against very good defenses. Hopefully this does not become a pattern. We will find out against Pitt and NE, whose DVOA are both better than Baltimore. If JA lays another clunker against Pitt and NE 2.0, there is cause for concern. If he can carve at least one of them up, it is just part of the maturation process. 

[zow2]

6 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

Run some draws, screens and slow down that rush. This week will be much more of the same and the Steelers can bring the pain.

 

Let’s go Daboll, skip that third breakfast plate and script 10-15 plays that will keep Allen upright. 

 

That's a good point.  The scripted, out of the gate stuff has been woeful.  That's when you receive the kickoff, march 8-10 plays downfield, get a FG attempt or even a TD.  At least hold the ball.  No one gives up possessions so easily as the Buffalo Bills.  McDermott even mentioned in his presser, that HAVE to get better early in the game.  Sounds like that's a priority of his going forward. The obvious stuff we talk about here, like inaccuracy downfield or poor field position due to special teams...he sees too.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

Gotta disagree here. I think when you take the number of deep shot yards left on the field by poorly thrown balls in totality, there is harm. Sure, you move on to the next down. But you don't get that many chances in the course of a game to hit those. It's like an AB in baseball; when the pitcher hangs a breaking ball and the batter gets out in front of it and smashes it down the line foul, there's harm. It's not strike 3, but you missed a golden opportunity.

 

Not quite sure what the answer is, but JA needs to start hitting some home runs if he's going to take that next step.

 

Oh, sure it's a harm.  But 1 or 2 shots, in the course of a game, are really NBD.  Yes, I'll agree we missed a golden opportunity. 

But that's not killer.  What is killer is having better opportunities and not taking them.   if you watch the game again, pay attention to the 3rd series we had, with 4:26 left in the 1st.  On 1st and 10, Allen hits Brown at the LOS.  Brown is hit immediately for NG.  Looked like he had Beasley open for at least 2-3. 

On 2nd and 10, Allen had Singletary open on the L at the LOS with a big cushion in front of him, and Brown open in the flats route heading toward the R sideline.  He flushed out of the pocket to the L and hurried his throw to Knox, which was made with one defender charging up behind him and one in his face.

On 3rd and 10, he's under pressure again and goes incomplete to Kroft (I think) who may have been late getting his head turned and being "QB friendly"

 

My point is that the missed deep throws are not the difference in the game.  The difference in the game are the missed opportunities for high-percentage "bunnies".  LJax took those and hit those and moved the chains.

 

 

[RichRiderBills]

I thought the last throw to Brown was a drop. Yes, Smith got a hand in to knock around, but i felt it could have been wrangled in.

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I counted three drops - one by Beasley on a deep-ish throw, one by Knox that should have been an easy first down, and one by Singletary at the LOS that probably wouldn't have gone for much. 

I am NOT counting last pass to Brown as a drop, but I think McKenzie endzone throw could be reasonably considered 

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oh, sure it's a harm.  But 1 or 2 shots, in the course of a game, are really NBD.  Yes, I'll agree we missed a golden opportunity. 

But that's not killer.  What is killer is having better opportunities and not taking them.   if you watch the game again, pay attention to the 3rd series we had, with 4:26 left in the 1st.  On 1st and 10, Allen hits Brown at the LOS.  Brown is hit immediately for NG.  Looked like he had Beasley open for at least 2-3. 

On 2nd and 10, Allen had Singletary open on the L at the LOS with a big cushion in front of him, and Brown open in the flats route heading toward the R sideline.  He flushed out of the pocket to the L and hurried his throw to Knox, which was made with one defender charging up behind him and one in his face.

On 3rd and 10, he's under pressure again and goes incomplete to Kroft (I think) who may have been late getting his head turned and being "QB friendly"

 

My point is that the missed deep throws are not the difference in the game.  The difference in the game are the missed opportunities for high-percentage "bunnies".  LJax took those and hit those and moved the chains.

 

 

You know what the real killer was? Thinking it was a good idea to drop Allen 7 steps back on our own 25 to pass and have Dawson Knox 1v1 with Judon.

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Indeed

 

 

I gave McKenzie a drop on the end zone ball that hit him in the hands

 

I feel like Devin mis-timed his jump; he probably could've had that one

I didn’t see a great replay of it, but I think the last pass to Brown was catchable.  The DB was all over Brown, but I don’t think he actually got his hand on the ball.  I could be wrong, though.