Why You Shouldn’t Feel Completely Dejected Over Josh Allen’s Poor Performance

[Dr.Sack]

Josh Allen needs to get better with his accuracy. For his career Allen is 11-0 when he completes 60% or better and 3-10 below 60%.

 

Allen simply needs to be more accurate. 
4 Losses: 68/142 47.8%
9 Wins: 174/263 66.1%
Total 242/405 59.8% 

 

 

[NFLBighits]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Tennessee is a good team now. Tannehill has made them a different team surprisingly. They were a mediocre one when we played them with Mariota.

 

Dallas is a underachieving .500 team with bad coaching.

 

The Bills still haven't beaten anyone, IMO. 

There missing a true number one receiver and a TE!!!?. That will open up a lot of ways to attack the defense, are defense is playing lights out and next year will be elite!

[Mikey152]

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Obviously my history is true. 

 

The list of guys who have done it over the past 20 years is limited to Drew Brees, Eli Manning and maybe Matt Stafford (hurt his 2nd season but played really well prior to injury). 

 

Otherwise most guys are what they are after two years as a starter. 

 

With that said, I think Josh Allen desperately needs an elite wide receiver who can stretch the field. That should be the biggest priority for the Bills this offseason. If he's still missing deep balls next year then we have a major problem on our hands. 

 

Agreed. 

 

Tennessee were terrible with Mariota as QB. Their kicker also missed three field goals and was cut the next day. 

 

With Tannehill they look like they could make a playoff run, if they can find a way into the post season. 

 

Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, even Tom Brady and Big Ben completely changed as a QB well after their first two years in the league despite early success...Half those guys didn't even START after two years, let alone max out.

 

In fact, the whole point with QBs is they keep getting better over time as passers as they see more and get more comfortable.  Historically, though, all the big hits also accelerated their clocks with regard to degradation of skills.  That has obviously changed. 

 

The exception is the more gimmicky guys that rely on an offense or running ability...those guys tend to see success earlier in their career, but even they change over time

 

 

Edited December 10, 2019 by Mikey152

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

21 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Josh Allen needs to get better with his accuracy. For his career Allen is 11-0 when he completes 60% or better and 3-10 below 60%.

 

Allen simply needs to be more accurate. 
4 Losses: 68/142 47.8%
9 Wins: 174/263 66.1%
Total 242/405 59.8% 

 

 

Which makes the game plan from Sunday all that absurd. Wouldn't you think getting him some easy completions early would be a thing that Daboll would do.

[Mikey152]

19 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Which makes the game plan from Sunday all that absurd. Wouldn't you think getting him some easy completions early would be a thing that Daboll would do.

 

Daboll really only calls the plays...once the play is called, it's josh that makes the reads and throws the ball.  For all we know, there were easy throws to be had, or the defense was taking them away.

 

The fact of the matter is, those deep shots were the right read against cover 0...the bills just can't hit one for the life of them, and it's killing them against teams that man up and blitz.  When you couple it with a crappy screen game, there's just not a lot Daboll can do aside from trying to coach them up so they execute better.

 

I think what's most frustrating about it all, is the deep ball SHOULD be our bread and butter...strong arm and fast WR with ball skills should be deadly, but the timing just isn't there.

Edited December 10, 2019 by Mikey152

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Dawson Knox is a rookie tight end who is 23rd in the NFL in yards at his position.

 

He's right behind TJ Hockenson who was the #8 overall pick in the draft this year. 

 

Do people not realize that it usually takes 2-3 years for tight ends to produce?

 

It takes 2-3 years for a TE to produce but Allen was never going to make it in your eyes.

 

 

 

So, only players with rare combinations of elite size and elite athleticism go in the first two rounds, and those players rarely miss. Even when they don't reach their potential (see Pettigrew, Brandon), teams rarely feel pressure to find a replacement.

Just 14.8 percent of top-pick tight ends go three years without standing out. An incredible 81.4 percent of them make a big impact in either their first or second years. Just one tight end in this entire data set, Anthony Fasano, flopped in his first two seasons and blossomed in his third. Generally speaking, if a tight end hasn't become good after two years, he isn't going to.

Edited December 10, 2019 by Scott7975

[thebandit27]

24 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

Daboll really only calls the plays...once the play is called, it's josh that makes the reads and throws the ball.  For all we know, there were easy throws to be had, or the defense was taking them away.

 

The fact of the matter is, those deep shots were the right read against cover 0...the bills just can't hit one for the life of them, and it's killing them against teams that man up and blitz.  When you couple it with a crappy screen game, there's just not a lot Daboll can do aside from trying to coach them up so they execute better.

 

I think what's most frustrating about it all, is the deep ball SHOULD be our bread and butter...strong arm and fast WR with ball skills should be deadly, but the timing just isn't there.

 

Yep. Timing has been an issue all year on the deep throws. They'll get it, but it's honestly not a priority because they manage to move the ball well and score when they need to for the most part.

 

17 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It takes 2-3 years for a TE to produce but Allen was never going to make it in your eyes.

 

Dude, you're not supposed to call it out so obviously; take the more subtle approach...it's more fun ?

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yep. Timing has been an issue all year on the deep throws. They'll get it, but it's honestly not a priority because they manage to move the ball well and score when they need to for the most part.

 

 

Dude, you're not supposed to call it out so obviously; take the more subtle approach...it's more fun ?

 

Ok im in progress of changing it right now.

[Buffalo716]

33 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

Daboll really only calls the plays...once the play is called, it's josh that makes the reads and throws the ball.  For all we know, there were easy throws to be had, or the defense was taking them away.

 

The fact of the matter is, those deep shots were the right read against cover 0...the bills just can't hit one for the life of them, and it's killing them against teams that man up and blitz.  When you couple it with a crappy screen game, there's just not a lot Daboll can do aside from trying to coach them up so they execute better.

 

I think what's most frustrating about it all, is the deep ball SHOULD be our bread and butter...strong arm and fast WR with ball skills should be deadly, but the timing just isn't there.

Jusy because you have a strong arm and fast WRs doesn't mean deep balls need to be your bread and butter

 

First , our WRs for the most part don't have good tracking skills downfield . McKenzie always tracks over the wrong shoulder and Beasley doesn't have break away speed

 

That leaves Brown and Foster. Brown is great but he has turned into a intermediate route specialist, only goes deep a few times a games, that's why chemistry isn't perfect

 

And Foster has gas speed but isn't the most dependable rn. He literally needs perfect throws. He overruns underthrows and doesn't fight for them and also has some tracking problems

 

Bills need a legitimate 6'2 deep threat like a Eric moulds that can catch a ball that isn't right on the money

[jrober38]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Why limit it to 1st rounders?  They are all rookies learning the position with the "steepest learning curve in the NFL", no?

 

But since you asked:  Noah Fant, Evan Engram, OJ Howard (same draft as Engram) , Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz (same draft as Eifert).

 

Then there have been other rookies recently:  George Kittle, Hunter Henry, Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed.

 

Hard to find good TE's?  Eifert, Ertz, Kelce and Reed were all drafted in the same year!

 

The problem with Knox is that he was never a pass catcher in college...

 

Have you looked at who he went to college with?

He was buried on the pecking order behind two of the SEC's best pass catchers his last two years. 

[jrober38]

46 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It takes 2-3 years for a TE to produce but Allen was never going to make it in your eyes.

 

 

 

So, only players with rare combinations of elite size and elite athleticism go in the first two rounds, and those players rarely miss. Even when they don't reach their potential (see Pettigrew, Brandon), teams rarely feel pressure to find a replacement.

Just 14.8 percent of top-pick tight ends go three years without standing out. An incredible 81.4 percent of them make a big impact in either their first or second years. Just one tight end in this entire data set, Anthony Fasano, flopped in his first two seasons and blossomed in his third. Generally speaking, if a tight end hasn't become good after two years, he isn't going to.

 

I would say that Knox has had an instant impact this year. 

 

I think next year he should be a 55 catch and maybe 700 yard type guy. 

 

We need to remember that he was hardly on the field the first 6 weeks of the season, when he was sharing snaps with Smith and Sweeney. 

[ILBillsfan]

4 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Obviously my history is true. 

 

The list of guys who have done it over the past 20 years is limited to Drew Brees, Eli Manning and maybe Matt Stafford (hurt his 2nd season but played really well prior to injury). 

 

Otherwise most guys are what they are after two years as a starter. 

 

With that said, I think Josh Allen desperately needs an elite wide receiver who can stretch the field. That should be the biggest priority for the Bills this offseason. If he's still missing deep balls next year then we have a major problem on our hands. 

 

Agreed. 

 

Tennessee were terrible with Mariota as QB. Their kicker also missed three field goals and was cut the next day. 

 

With Tannehill they look like they could make a playoff run, if they can find a way into the post season. 

Why? Is what I said wrong?

 

Is it common for quarterbacks to really improve their play after two years as a starter?

 

Asking for a friend....

 

there I pointed out a recent example

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I would say that Knox has had an instant impact this year. 

 

I think next year he should be a 55 catch and maybe 700 yard type guy. 

 

We need to remember that he was hardly on the field the first 6 weeks of the season, when he was sharing snaps with Smith and Sweeney. 

 

55 catches seems realistic...provided he gets 140 targets since he'll drop 60 of them

[jrober38]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

55 catches seems realistic...provided he gets 140 targets since he'll drop 60 of them

 

Remember when you told me to stop with the hyperbole?

 

Hypocrite. 

[Mango]

24 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Jusy because you have a strong arm and fast WRs doesn't mean deep balls need to be your bread and butter

 

First , our WRs for the most part don't have good tracking skills downfield . McKenzie always tracks over the wrong shoulder and Beasley doesn't have break away speed

 

That leaves Brown and Foster. Brown is great but he has turned into a intermediate route specialist, only goes deep a few times a games, that's why chemistry isn't perfect

 

And Foster has gas speed but isn't the most dependable rn. He literally needs perfect throws. He overruns underthrows and doesn't fight for them and also has some tracking problems

 

Bills need a legitimate 6'2 deep threat like a Eric moulds that can catch a ball that isn't right on the money

 

I mean, you would think they practice during the week, right? 

 

Teams don't actually throw the go/fly route terribly often. In 2016 the high end for a QB was about 2.5 times per game. Just throwing it, not completing it. It would be nice to hit on them occasionally, and we do need to, but I don't think chemistry on a route that the average QB only throws 1-2 times per game is the issue we hit on near ZERO go routes. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by Mango

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Remember when you told me to stop with the hyperbole?

 

Hypocrite. 

 

Look who finally woke up!

 

I've been "jrobering" all day regarding Knox. I sound like a fool, don't I?

 

If you haven't caught it yet, the point is that you've made every excuse in the book for Knox, and literally every one of them applies to Allen.

 

And even though 4 different posters have pointed this out, you just keep right in rollin' with it.

Edited December 10, 2019 by thebandit27

[K-9]

8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Look who finally woke up!

 

I've been "jrobering" all day regarding Knox. I sound like a fool, don't I?

 

If you haven't caught it yet, the point is that you've made every excuse in the book for Knox, and literally every one of them applies to Allen.

 

And even though 4 different posters have pointed this out, you just keep right in rollin' with it.

I’ve done the research and if a TSW forum member doesn’t improve after his first two years, he is what he is. Sadly, our friend jrober is a three year veteran at this point, so there is no hope. 

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I mean, you would think they practice during the week, right? 

 

Teams don't actually throw the go/fly route terribly often. In 2016 the high end for a QB was about 2.5 times per game. Just throwing it, not completing it. It would be nice to hit on them occasionally, and we do need to, but I don't think chemistry on a route that the average QB only throws 1-2 times per game is the issue here. 

You practice your gameplan. So if the Bills only throw deep a few times a game they will only practice it a few times during the week

 

They run the 15 yard square in that Allen throws 8 times a game, 20 times in practice. That's the chemistry and why he hits it

 

Deep ball throws are just as much about timing and when to release the ball, as it is perfect accuracy. 

 

The more times you run it, the more comfortable you get, it goes back to OTAs and training camp

 

The bills have utilized a intermediate passing attack mixed with quick hits in the short game. This tells me the deep ball was not the focus during OTAs and camp and the chemistry had to be worked out during the year, which is tough

 

A running team spends exorbitant amount of time on their blocking schemes and plays during camp. They usually run the ball at a great clip once the season starts but the passing game lags behind because it wasn't the focus

 

Allen needs an off-season to focus on his deep touch because it's clear all/most of his time went into becoming much better in the short , intermediate game

 

QB and receiving is all about timing , unless the QB is off by 15 yards .. even when Allen is off by 4 yards that's hardly a terrible overthrow 40 yards downfield.. it's timing and if he threw it to the same spot but held the ball 1 second more, the receiver would be there

[Scott7975]

17 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

55 catches seems realistic...provided he gets 140 targets since he'll drop 60 of them

 

Well he does currently drop 34-35% of the catchable balls so you aren't that far off.  140 targets at Allens 60% comp rate gets about 84 catchable balls.  Catching 65% of 84 balls is just shy of 55 catches.

 

I know you were just being hyperbolic but the math works haha.

[Mango]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

You practice your gameplan. So if the Bills only throw deep a few times a game they will only practice it a few times during the week

 

They run the 15 yard square in that Allen throws 8 times a game, 20 times in practice. That's the chemistry and why he hits it

 

Deep ball throws are just as much about timing and when to release the ball, as it is perfect accuracy. 

 

The more times you run it, the more comfortable you get, it goes back to OTAs and training camp

 

The bills have utilized a intermediate passing attack mixed with quick hits in the short game. This tells me the deep ball was not the focus during OTAs and camp and the chemistry had to be worked out during the year, which is tough

 

A running team spends exorbitant amount of time on their blocking schemes and plays during camp. They usually run the ball at a great clip once the season starts but the passing game lags behind because it wasn't the focus

 

Allen needs an off-season to focus on his deep touch because it's clear all/most of his time went into becoming much better in the short , intermediate game

 

QB and receiving is all about timing , unless the QB is off by 15 yards .. even when Allen is off by 4 yards that's hardly a terrible overthrow 40 yards downfield.. it's timing and if he threw it to the same spot but held the ball 1 second more, the receiver would be there

 

I agree with just about all of this.

 

I would guess between last years season, off-season, and this season, Allen is getting a bunch of reps with go routes. I don't think it is a "he isn't practicing it so he isn't connecting on game day with it". I guarantee he is practicing it a ton, he still just blows at it. (Hopefully that isn't a forever issue). It just feels like this is being presented as a special Josh Allen issue. Other young and veteran QB's are hitting these passes at a much higher rate then JA, with the same amount of weekly prep.  He doesn't have a special circumstance other than sucking at it currently. 

 

And frankly, if he needs more than 4 weeks of TC and 14 weeks of the season (13+ bye) with his receivers to hit on more than like 8% of deep routes, than things will be tough sledding for all of us long term. Because in 3 years this WR corp will be much different again, and we can't wait nearly a season for it to come together.