Why You Shouldn’t Feel Completely Dejected Over Josh Allen’s Poor Performance

[Mikey152]

20 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Jusy because you have a strong arm and fast WRs doesn't mean deep balls need to be your bread and butter

 

First , our WRs for the most part don't have good tracking skills downfield . McKenzie always tracks over the wrong shoulder and Beasley doesn't have break away speed

 

That leaves Brown and Foster. Brown is great but he has turned into a intermediate route specialist, only goes deep a few times a games, that's why chemistry isn't perfect

 

And Foster has gas speed but isn't the most dependable rn. He literally needs perfect throws. He overruns underthrows and doesn't fight for them and also has some tracking problems

 

Bills need a legitimate 6'2 deep threat like a Eric moulds that can catch a ball that isn't right on the money

 

I don't disagree...I was speaking more from an "on the surface" perspective

 

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Mikey152

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Jusy because you have a strong arm and fast WRs doesn't mean deep balls need to be your bread and butter

 

First , our WRs for the most part don't have good tracking skills downfield . McKenzie always tracks over the wrong shoulder and Beasley doesn't have break away speed

 

That leaves Brown and Foster. Brown is great but he has turned into a intermediate route specialist, only goes deep a few times a games, that's why chemistry isn't perfect

 

And Foster has gas speed but isn't the most dependable rn. He literally needs perfect throws. He overruns underthrows and doesn't fight for them and also has some tracking problems

 

Bills need a legitimate 6'2 deep threat like a Eric moulds that can catch a ball that isn't right on the money

Pretty good assessment here, especially on Foster. That and suspect protection makes the timing tough on those deep shots. The Bills should practice running screens of all types tirelessly. They never seem to set them up well and don’t look like they know how to “sell” a screen to the D ; ie not tip them off that it’s coming. Seems like they could do that more effectively than hitting some lower % passes with precision in the face of a rush without physical ,athletic WRs that pretty much need a perfect ball. 

[GoBills808]

25 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I agree with just about all of this.

 

I would guess between last years season, off-season, and this season, Allen is getting a bunch of reps with go routes. I don't think it is a "he isn't practicing it so he isn't connecting on game day with it". I guarantee he is practicing it a ton, he still just blows at it. (Hopefully that isn't a forever issue). It just feels like this is being presented as a special Josh Allen issue. Other young and veteran QB's are hitting these passes at a much higher rate then JA, with the same amount of weekly prep.  He doesn't have a special circumstance other than sucking at it currently. 

 

And frankly, if he needs more than 4 weeks of TC and 14 weeks of the season (13+ bye) with his receivers to hit on more than like 8% of deep routes, than things will be tough sledding for all of us long term. Because in 3 years this WR corp will be much different again, and we can't wait nearly a season for it to come together. 

What are the numbers for Allen vs the rest of the league on these kinds of throws?

[Boatdrinks]

I’m sure they practice these, and probably hit them.. in practice.  In real game situations , it seems like something is always off with the timing or route or some other factor. The rush in his face is probably not replicated, and his WRs pretty much need a perfect ball. Until some variable changes, the6 should work on the other proven blitz beater; screens. Didn’t someone have a diagram/ tutorial on how to beat the cover zero with crossers or something ? Don’t remember which thread, but this has been an issue all season and is creeping up again as the playoffs approach and they play better defenses. 

[dakrider]

The big thing for Josh, and the Bills offense both is they cannot keep coming out looking like their not ready to play in the first quarter of games.  They need to come out more fired up and have more consistency to start games.   Josh also got a little complacent these last few weeks with his pass protection too, the coaches did not prep him very well for keeping track of his pass blocking in this game and he was  completely blind-sided on some of those.  The coaching staff should have known they would be blitzing and bringing a heavy rush.  

 

At the end of the Ravens game, it seemed like everyone was focused on that last play.  But the Bills lost the game in the first half when they couldn't take advantage of good field position a couple of times and had to settle for field goals.  Beating one of the best teams in the league is a huge obstacle and you can't expect to do it only playing for half a game and getting down and then try to come back.  And the last thing is the Bills offense started out this game very predictable as well.  Its like, oh we're the bills so we will run these plays regardless who we play.  

[Mango]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

What are the numbers for Allen vs the rest of the league on these kinds of throws?

 

36 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I’m sure they practice these, and probably hit them.. in practice.  In real game situations , it seems like something is always off with the timing or route or some other factor. The rush in his face is probably not replicated, and his WRs pretty much need a perfect ball. Until some variable changes, the6 should work on the other proven blitz beater; screens. Didn’t someone have a diagram/ tutorial on how to beat the cover zero with crossers or something ? Don’t remember which thread, but this has been an issue all season and is creeping up again as the playoffs approach and they play better defenses. 

Football outsiders does it at the end of the year. But we know he is among the worst in the NFL this year at the long ball in general. He was the worst QB in the NFL in 2018 at the go route specifically.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-dvoa-routes-quarterbacks

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So are you saying that...

 

Good players at any position don't grow on trees?

That good prospects don't enter the league as finished products?

That some players need time to refine their game, and in some cases even to develop basic skills that are required of the position?

That a guy with relatively little experience at his position may take longer to develop than others?

That it's criminally stupid to focus only on what a young player does poorly and ignore what he does well and what he can learn to do well?

 

Asking for a friend.

 

 

?

 

 

18 minutes ago, Mango said:

Football outsiders does it at the end of the year. But we know he is among the worst in the NFL this year at the long ball in general. He was the worst QB in the NFL in 2018 at the go route specifically.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-dvoa-routes-quarterbacks

 

Do you happen to have a source that's just completion percentage, and not DVOA, for those of us who are simple people who don't do DVOA?

 

Also, just wondering if it factors in what the WR corps the guy was throwing to was like.

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Football outsiders does it at the end of the year. But we know he is among the worst in the NFL this year at the long ball in general. He was the worst QB in the NFL in 2018 at the go route specifically.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-dvoa-routes-quarterbacks

So no actual numbers or stats for this year, I take it? Because when someone says: 'Other young and veteran QB's are hitting these passes at a much higher rate then JA' and their only proof being 'because it looks that way to me'...let's just say it's not surprising the worst opinions also happen to come from those least able to support them in any meaningful way.

[PolishDave]

3 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

QB and receiving is all about timing , unless the QB is off by 15 yards .. even when Allen is off by 4 yards that's hardly a terrible overthrow 40 yards downfield.. it's timing and if he threw it to the same spot but held the ball 1 second more, the receiver would be there

 

That isn't how it works with deep balls dude.   Deep balls aren't all about timing.  Crossing routes, slants, back shoulder throws, even screens; they are about timing.   Deep throws are about accuracy, trajectory and ball speed.   Once the decision is made to throw to the guy on the go route, the quarterback tries to throw the ball to a spot where the receiver is going to be based on the speed of the receiver, the angle he is running at and how far away he is.   It is a split second mechanical (how hard do I throw this and at what angle) decision.   Allen is failing at it.   It's like shooting pool and choosing the wrong angle - you miss.   It doesn't require waiting for the perfect moment.  It requires accuracy - enough to make it catchable by your guy.    And accuracy requires lots and lots and lots of deliberate practice along with some natural physical talent.   

[ChasBB]

To OP: Great, level-headed look at this performance - and nice job of gathering some stats!  The bottom line is success breeds confidence.  If just one of those deep balls early in the game connects, it's a different ball game and one where Buffalo's offense gains confidence and one where the Raven's start to doubt themselves.  Every single play matters in this league.  Like you, I was very disappointed in the QB performance and the offensive performance, in general.  Allen and the offense MUST do better if they are to be taken seriously as a contender in the playoffs.  I hope they learn from it and can put that clunker of a performance behind them.  I'm still an Allen fan, but c'mon - it is time to take it up a notch!

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

That isn't how it works with deep balls dude.   Deep balls aren't all about timing.  Crossing routes, slants, back shoulder throws, even screens; they are about timing.   Deep throws are about accuracy, trajectory and ball speed.   Once the decision is made to throw to the guy on the go route, the quarterback tries to throw the ball to a spot where the receiver is going to be based on the speed of the receiver, the angle he is running at and how far away he is.   It is a split second mechanical (how hard do I throw this and at what angle) decision.   Allen is failing at it.   It's like shooting pool and choosing the wrong angle - you miss.   It doesn't require waiting for the perfect moment.  It requires accuracy - enough to make it catchable by your guy.    And accuracy requires lots and lots and lots of deliberate practice along with some natural physical talent.   

Deep balls are still about timing dude

 

Yea Allen's touch and trajectory is off but it's still 100% about timing.. 

 

Getting rid of the ball consistently with the WR at the right distance is key. Not alot of 50 yard throws are right on the dime

 

A WR has to track and adjust speed and be in sync with a QB. Something our WRs don't due well

 

You practice a 9 route to find timing and consistency downfield and his trajectory is off but so is his timing. It's not just chuck it up accurately

 

Most QBs are in sync in 5-7 step drops and distance markers with WRs for deep balls that create timing. QBs find a comfort zone 20-40 yards downfield where they have created timing. They don't just wait 45 yards downfield and Chuck it up

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Have you looked at who he went to college with?

He was buried on the pecking order behind two of the SEC's best pass catchers his last two years. 

 

Then why draft him??  The guy caught 15 balls.....in an entire season!!  He was barely more useful than his teammate Octavius Cooley.

 

 

[K-9]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Deep balls are still about timing dude

 

Yea Allen's touch and trajectory is off but it's still 100% about timing.. 

 

Getting rid of the ball consistently with the WR at the right distance is key. Not alot of 50 yard throws are right on the dime

 

A WR has to track and adjust speed and be in sync with a QB. Something our WRs don't due well

 

You practice a 9 route to find timing and consistency downfield and his trajectory is off but so is his timing. It's not just chuck it up accurately

 

Most QBs are in sync in 5-7 step drops and distance markers with WRs for deep balls that create timing. QBs find a comfort zone 20-40 yards downfield where they have created timing. They don't just wait 45 yards downfield and Chuck it up

If there is one thing I’ve noticed about Allens’s attempts on go routes, especially vs. blitzes like we saw Sunday, is that they are rushed. Allen seldom has or takes the time to set properly and make a smooth delivery. Virtually every time. Maybe Daboll should scheme some mass protections to give him that extra second to set up. Our wideouts have done a decent job of beating press coverage and that extra time just might help Allen gauge it a little better.

[PolishDave]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Deep balls are still about timing dude

 

Yea Allen's touch and trajectory is off but it's still 100% about timing.. 

 

 

You practice a 9 route to find timing and consistency downfield and his trajectory is off but so is his timing. It's not just chuck it up accurately

 

Most QBs are in sync in 5-7 step drops and distance markers with WRs for deep balls that create timing. QBs find a comfort zone 20-40 yards downfield where they have created timing. They don't just wait 45 yards downfield and Chuck it up

 

I don't think we aren't talking about the same thing.

    

When a QB is throwing a quick slant, he has a precise window of time where the receiver is going to be open.   The quarterback must deliver the ball within that window.  The receiver must expect the ball within that window.   That is timing.   If either one screws it up - the play goes incomplete or worse.   That's generally what people are talking about when they are talking about timing in regards to passing routes.

 

When a QB throws to a flanker who is one on one and running predominantly towards the endzone - the quarterback might make that decision pre-snap based on coverages and tendencies of that team; the quarterback might make that decision 3 seconds into his read progressions or the quarterback might make that decision after being flushed out of the pocket and running in the backfield for 5 seconds.   The quarterback generally is not throwing that pass to a predetermined spot on the field within a predetermined small time window - and the receiver doesn't know if he is getting the ball or not most of the time.

 

At the point the decision is made to throw the long ball, the quarterback is not waiting or trying to time anything.   The dude is trying to throw it accurately in a way that it is catchable.   That has zero to do with timing.   It is all about accuracy and touch.   He is trying to throw into a window where the timing has to be perfect for the receiver to be open and the receiver doesn't know at what time the QB is going to throw it.

 

The decision to throw to him is made because the receiver is already open (and will be indefinitely because he beat his guy) or because the QB wants to give his guy a chance to make a contested play when he is one on one.  There is no timing there.

 

You occasionally see a QB throw a deep ball to a spot on the field where he is hoping his receiver might be without checking first, but when he does that it is because he is getting rid of the ball hoping to avoid a sack.   Even then it isn't because he expected a player to be at a specific spot 50 yards downfield at a specific time.   It is just a poor decision.

 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

?

 

 

 

Do you happen to have a source that's just completion percentage, and not DVOA, for those of us who are simple people who don't do DVOA?

 

Also, just wondering if it factors in what the WR corps the guy was throwing to was like.

 

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

So no actual numbers or stats for this year, I take it? Because when someone says: 'Other young and veteran QB's are hitting these passes at a much higher rate then JA' and their only proof being 'because it looks that way to me'...let's just say it's not surprising the worst opinions also happen to come from those least able to support them in any meaningful way.

NP @Hapless Bills FanIt’s seems most outlets aren’t producing the data set until it is complete. I found that SIS is keeping the data live and to the public. 
 

Josh Allen is the worse ranked starter in the NFL at deep passes. The trend is continuing from year 1 to year 2.  Now @GoBills808 , if you’d like to actually add to the conversation rather than being pedantic and combative, that would be great. 
 

To my original point, Josh Allen isn’t in some special circumstance where he can’t develop rhythm with his WR’s after 4 weeks of camp and 14  weeks in season (+ the bye). He gets just as much practice as everybody else. 
 

https://sisdatahub.com/leaderboards/QB

[Buffalo716]

7 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

I don't think we aren't talking about the same thing.

    

When a QB is throwing a quick slant, he has a precise window of time where the receiver is going to be open.   The quarterback must deliver the ball within that window.  The receiver must expect the ball within that window.   That is timing.   If either one screws it up - the play goes incomplete or worse.   That's generally what people are talking about when they are talking about timing in regards to passing routes.

 

When a QB throws to a flanker who is one on one and running predominantly towards the endzone - the quarterback might make that decision pre-snap based on coverages and tendencies of that team; the quarterback might make that decision 3 seconds into his read progressions or the quarterback might make that decision after being flushed out of the pocket and running in the backfield for 5 seconds.   The quarterback generally is not throwing that pass to a predetermined spot on the field within a predetermined small time window - and the receiver doesn't know if he is getting the ball or not most of the time.

 

At the point the decision is made to throw the long ball, the quarterback is not waiting or trying to time anything.   The dude is trying to throw it accurately in a way that it is catchable.   That has zero to do with timing.   It is all about accuracy and touch.   He is trying to throw into a window where the timing has to be perfect for the receiver to be open and the receiver doesn't know at what time the QB is going to throw it.

 

The decision to throw to him is made because the receiver is already open (and will be indefinitely because he beat his guy) or because the QB wants to give his guy a chance to make a contested play when he is one on one.  There is no timing there.

 

You occasionally see a QB throw a deep ball to a spot on the field where he is hoping his receiver might be without checking first, but when he does that it is because he is getting rid of the ball hoping to avoid a sack.   Even then it isn't because he expected a player to be at a specific spot 50 yards downfield at a specific time.   It is just a poor decision.

 

The timing you are talking about is more in the Rhythm passing game, where a QB throws through a window expecting his WR to be there

 

There are all sorts of timing connections in the passing game. The timing on a West coast Rhythm throw is considerably different than the timing that goes into a 9 route or deep post 

 

Where you can THROW WRs open too , they don't need to be open when the ball leaves the hand of the QB... That's why timing comes into play

Edited December 11, 2019 by Buffalo716

[jrober38]

48 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Then why draft him??  The guy caught 15 balls.....in an entire season!!  He was barely more useful than his teammate Octavius Cooley.

 

 

 

Because he's got good size, runs well, and gets open (something he's done all season). 

 

Give Knox an offseason to refine his focus on catching the ball in traffic. I think he'll be really good next year. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

You practice your gameplan. So if the Bills only throw deep a few times a game they will only practice it a few times during the week

 

Obviously none of us have access to the Bills practice rep sheet.  Given that they knew Wink Martindale blitzes like crazy, including a bunch of Cover 0 that makes it hard to run, it would not surprise me that the Bills built in some extra reps around the deep throws that they dialed up early - and that Allen was hitting them regularly in practice.

 

Then you get to game time, and maybe he's got to take a couple extra steps to avoid the OL getting shoved back in his lap.  Maybe  he has to rush his throw a little because of the pressure.  Maybe he can't plant and follow through exactly as he wants.  The wind is gusting and swirling in a way it may not have done during the week.  Maybe the receiver doesn't get a clean release off the line, maybe the DB gets some hands on him as Cover1 suggested.  It becomes an estimate, and not a precision passing maneuver. 

 

I know none of this is news to you I'm just putting it out there.

 

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Allen needs an off-season to focus on his deep touch because it's clear all/most of his time went into becoming much better in the short , intermediate game

 

Yes, and he's made far more improvement there than I thought he would (or could) and has maintained it most of the time during games.  It wouldn't surprise me if that focus on altered mechanics for the intermediate throws, affected his deep throws.

 

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

QB and receiving is all about timing , unless the QB is off by 15 yards .. even when Allen is off by 4 yards that's hardly a terrible overthrow 40 yards downfield.. it's timing and if he threw it to the same spot but held the ball 1 second more, the receiver would be there

 

And he couldn't hold the ball one second more, because he would have been on his ass with a bunch of Ravens pecking and squawking.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

NP @Hapless Bills FanIt’s seems most outlets aren’t producing the data set until it is complete. I found that SIS is keeping the data live and to the public.

https://sisdatahub.com/leaderboards/QB

 

OK, I see their data, and it looks like a good site, but please excuse me for not getting it- where is the part that shows Allen has the worst completion % for deep passes?

 

I don't want to see their IQR which their glossary defines as  " Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc."  I don't find Special Sauce metrics have a good track record.  Maybe this one is different, maybe it's not.

 

I just want completion percentage.  The % they have there seem to be % of throws targetted to the L, Middle, and R

 

I'm not trying to be a tool here.  I actually tried copying and pasting their data set into Excel so I could calculate it myself, which works for NFL and pro-football-reference stuff, but the way their table is formatted it didn't behave nicely using my easy-peasy bag o' tricks.

 

If we're going to be talking about how Josh completes these passes at a much lower rate than anyone else, I just think there ought to be some data we can all look at.

 

Thanks for the link though.

 

[Bill_with_it]

What doesn't kill you makes you stonger. While it would have been nice had he carved up their defense like Brees carves up defenses, im truly thankful that he got to experience this. He will learn from it. Our playoff hopes werent riding on this and honestly I believe it will make the team stronger and hungrier.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Bill_with_it