Dafan Posted December 9, 2019 Author Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, GregPersons said: Ideal outcome: WEEK 15 Bills steamroll Pittsburgh. Pats squeak past Cincy. WEEK 16 Bills suffocate the Patriots with intense pressure on defense, and long drives on offense. Bills defense feasts on Brady. You can see on his face that he's thinking retirement. He looks like a 43 year old man out there. WEEK 17 Bills beat Jets. Patriots need to beat the Dolphins to avoid losing the division, but they get frustrated early and Fitz plays lights out... Miami steals the game as a spoiler. Bills / Dolphins rivalry is officially pronounced dead.... it's been dead that way since 2000 or so but such an outcome would almost create a type of gratitude-based friendship like we have with the Bengals. And just like that, the Bills are AFC East champions. The beginning of a new reign. WILDCARD WEEKEND Bills @ 12-4 get a home playoff game as the #3 seed... and the first playoff win in a generation. If we end up winning the east I think there's a good chance we squeak into the #2 seed. KC is only other team that would be able to hit 12 wins. And they still play denver, chicago and chargers.
Utah John Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 You are all forgetting the rule. One game at a time. Everyone is assuming we'll beat the Steelers but come on. How many times has Pittsburgh been the undoing of the Bills? The worst time of course was 2004 when the Bledsoe Bills just had to beat the Steelers backups in a home game for the Bills to break the drought and get into the playoffs. And the Bills lost, 29-24. If something like that happens next weekend, (1) I'll be very surprised that this year's team let down like that, and (2) it will be a very bitter pill. Pittsburgh will have the edge on us for the playoffs, and we might have to beat both the Pats and Jets to get in.
The Red King Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, Utah John said: You are all forgetting the rule. One game at a time. Everyone is assuming we'll beat the Steelers but come on. How many times has Pittsburgh been the undoing of the Bills? The worst time of course was 2004 when the Bledsoe Bills just had to beat the Steelers backups in a home game for the Bills to break the drought and get into the playoffs. And the Bills lost, 29-24. If something like that happens next weekend, (1) I'll be very surprised that this year's team let down like that, and (2) it will be a very bitter pill. Pittsburgh will have the edge on us for the playoffs, and we might have to beat both the Pats and Jets to get in. Nobody is assuming anything. We're discussing scenarios to win the division, that's all.
GunnerBill Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 We are not winning the division this year, sadly. But the most important thing I am taking away from the Patriots current struggles - and particularly Tom Brady's struggles (and they are real.... the protection is not great but Brady is missing open guys and not throwing on time) is that the division IS very much in play in 2020. And I think that is good news. It needs to be, because the AFC East's schedule is much tougher next year - we are matched with the NFC and AFC West. I'd be pretty surprised if that leads to a wildcard from the AFCE in 2020, so if we want to make the playoffs next year we will likely need to win the division. 1
No_Matter_What Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: We are not winning the division this year, sadly. But the most important thing I am taking away from the Patriots current struggles - and particularly Tom Brady's struggles (and they are real.... the protection is not great but Brady is missing open guys and not throwing on time) is that the division IS very much in play in 2020. And I think that is good news. It needs to be, because the AFC East's schedule is much tougher next year - we are matched with the NFC and AFC West. I'd be pretty surprised if that leads to a wildcard from the AFCE in 2020, so if we want to make the playoffs next year we will likely need to win the division. This is great point Gunner. I was among first pointing out that our 2020 schedule will probably (even knowing how fast things change in NFL) be much tougher than this year, since we play much tougher divisions. But you are absolutely right that on the other hand it could be much easier to go into playoffs by actually winning our division. I didn't realize this. As for this year, I find it hilarious that either Dalton or Fitzpatrick may help us secure division title. I don't this it will actually happen though - one of them may beat Pats, but I think we only win 2 of our remaining games, so it won't be enough.
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 6 hours ago, ColoradoBills said: Woman: I HAVE HAD IT WITH YOU AND THESE PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS! Cat: Did you say something?
CLTbills Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 You are mistaken. As I've stated in the other 3,000 playoff threads, common games w-l % comes before conference record when breaking a tie in the division. People don't realize (and it's because we haven't even been discussing tie-breaker scenarios for the division for twenty damn years) that the tie breaking procedures are actually different when it's for the division vs. if it's for the wildcard. https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures 1 1
The Jokeman Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 8 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: From what I have read, it goes: 1) Head to head 2) Division 3) Common opponents 4) Conference wins Not sure where we stand with common opponents. We need the Patriots to have more losses than us to capture the division as the Patriots beat the Browns and think Eagles to beat us in common opponents.
Big Turk Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 8 hours ago, Mark Vader said: Despite that, it's not out of the question. Look at how the Bengals & Dolphins have been playing lately. They are not automatic wins anymore. The Patriots* are going to get a tough game from both of these teams. Would have given this more of a chance if the game was in Miami...historically Brady has struggled there more than anywhere else and lost numerous times
Greg S Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 Looking at the Bills last 3 games I think they finish 11-5 or 10-6. I see the Steelers game as a toss up. I think the Bills lose at NE. Until they can prove they can beat them I will never pick BUF over NE. The Bills will smack the Jets silly and use them as the green and white punching bag that they are.
offyourocker Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 I am more concerned about actually winning another game to make the playoffs. We are not wining the division. 1
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 This is more difficult than learning the rules of fizzbin.
H2o Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 We would be on easy street if not for our non-conference wins.
Ned Flanders Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 9 hours ago, Charles Romes said: Common opponents I believe got us in the playoffs in ‘17 despite a worse conference record. Makes sense that the same rule would come back to haunt us. I think it actually came down to the fifth tiebreaker, strength of victory. https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures I can't recall the exact formula, but we got in on this one, even having been blown out by the Chargers, who finished with the same record.
djp14150 Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 10 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: From what I have read, it goes: 1) Head to head 2) Division 3) Common opponents 4) Conference wins Not sure where we stand with common opponents. Non common buffalo 2-0 vs Denver and ten new England 0-2 vs kc and houston NE will have a better common games record. If buffaloSssS loses next week they aren’t out because if down by 2 games heading to New England..they beat them, then W and ZNE lose the get division if they lose to cin snd buf wins thry are tied thrn the winner will lead the division. in tied breakers outside division 3 and 4 are flipped. after that strength of victory and strength of schedule are the next tue breakers
Alphadawg7 Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 (edited) I figured out why everyone is so confused on tie breaker rules: The NFL is inconsistent on the order in different scenarios, which is really dumb. OFFICIAL DIVISIONAL TIE BREAKER ORDER: Has common opponents ahead of conference record. So no, we can’t win division if win out unless NE loses to Mia or Cincy. WILDCARD TIE BREAKER ORDER: This however uses conference record BEFORE common opponents. This is stupid, should be same order for both. And when you google “NFL divisional tie breaking rules” the first listing actually is the Wildcard rule where it falsely looks like it’s conf record ahead of common opponents. It if you click the link it takes you to NFL late where it lists them all. So once again, the official correct answer without question is NO we can NOT win the division if we win out UNLESS NE loses to either Cincy or Miami. https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures Edited December 9, 2019 by Alphadawg7 1
Rochesterfan Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: I figured out why everyone is so confused on tie breaker rules: The NFL is inconsistent on the order in different scenarios, which is really dumb. OFFICIAL DIVISIONAL TIE BREAKER ORDER: Has common opponents ahead of conference record. So no, we can’t win division if win out unless NE loses to Mia or Cincy. WILDCARD TIE BREAKER ORDER: This however uses conference record BEFORE common opponents. This is stupid, should be same order for both. And when you google “NFL divisional tie breaking rules” the first listing actually is the Wildcard rule where it falsely looks like it’s conf record ahead of common opponents. It if you click the link it takes you to NFL late where it lists them all. So once again, the official correct answer without question is NO we can NOT win the division if we win out UNLESS NE loses to either Cincy or Miami. https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures It is not dumb that the order is different- it makes complete sense and is driven by the NFL schedule. For divisional foes - common opponents should be ranked higher because each team plays a balanced schedule and the majority of games are common opponents. That is a much better and more fair tie breaker within the division because using the Conference record first would mean that a previous division winner that drew 2 extra games against better opponents from the previous year may be at a huge disadvantage. For example: If Dallas/Philadelphia tied and had the same divisional record - if you went to Conference first Dallas has a much harder Conference because their 2 additional teams were Saints/Rams versus Seattle/Atlanta for Philadelphia. It makes sense since other than those 2 games - the rest are head to head and common - you would use that as a better judge of teams. The Bills beat Tennessee/Denver - while the Pats lost to two division leading teams in KC/Houston - same thing - not really a fair way to judge the 2 teams. For non divisional tie-breakers - your number of common opponents goes way down and are usually imbalanced - so a better separator is Conference wins to highlight that importance against Conference foes. The NFL tried to use the best criteria to separate teams - it just so happens that the best criteria is different within the division and within the Conference.
Alphadawg7 Posted December 9, 2019 Posted December 9, 2019 45 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: It is not dumb that the order is different- it makes complete sense and is driven by the NFL schedule. For divisional foes - common opponents should be ranked higher because each team plays a balanced schedule and the majority of games are common opponents. That is a much better and more fair tie breaker within the division because using the Conference record first would mean that a previous division winner that drew 2 extra games against better opponents from the previous year may be at a huge disadvantage. For example: If Dallas/Philadelphia tied and had the same divisional record - if you went to Conference first Dallas has a much harder Conference because their 2 additional teams were Saints/Rams versus Seattle/Atlanta for Philadelphia. It makes sense since other than those 2 games - the rest are head to head and common - you would use that as a better judge of teams. The Bills beat Tennessee/Denver - while the Pats lost to two division leading teams in KC/Houston - same thing - not really a fair way to judge the 2 teams. For non divisional tie-breakers - your number of common opponents goes way down and are usually imbalanced - so a better separator is Conference wins to highlight that importance against Conference foes. The NFL tried to use the best criteria to separate teams - it just so happens that the best criteria is different within the division and within the Conference. I respectfully disagree. Both should be conference record as it’s a conference playoff. Common opponents have too many variables and are not all relevant to within conference as it includes out of conference opponents.
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