Why wasn't Duke Williams active?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, fansince88 said:

All great points. This was my point in the post above. His drops percentage is 15% and how does that compare as a rookie. Also just thinking about it he also has quite a few drops because he is turning his head upfield before he is completing the catch. That seems more of a muscle memory fix then an ability issue no? He has the potential to be great and the coaches and team to get there imho.

...better be careful with this "voice of reason and assessment" stuff 'round these parts....better don your kevlar vest bud.....

[Nelius]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Duke has no speed,  is not at all quick and has about the same vertical leap as Cody Ford.

 

He has nice body control and very good ball skills and is very physical.   He's basically an undersized and slow receiving tight end.  

 

You are comparing him to WR's who were smooth and sudden and had a lot of traits Duke does not have beyond just being slower in the 40 than most of them.

 

I'm not really comparing him to anybody per my original disclaimer. I'm making light of the statement that 4.72 in general is too slow to be a WR, especially when considering that the best to ever do it ran a 4.71.

[BananaB]

His 85% catch rate is making the rest of the guys look bad. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, Nelius said:

 

I'm not really comparing him to anybody per my original disclaimer. I'm making light of the statement that 4.72 in general is too slow to be a WR, especially when considering that the best to ever do it ran a 4.71.

 

...who gets to run 40 yards unimpeded anyway?.........

 

"Jerry Rice reportedly ran a 4.7 second 40-yard dash (regarded as a mediocre figures for a wide receiver).  Said former teammate Ronnie Lott, "Jerry may have been a 4.6 or a 4.7, but he was a 4.2 on Sundays." Rice was also generally noted for being able to run as fast a 40-yard dash under the weight of heavy NFL padding as he was in track gear."

[BADOLBILZ]

38 minutes ago, Nelius said:

 

I'm not really comparing him to anybody per my original disclaimer. I'm making light of the statement that 4.72 in general is too slow to be a WR, especially when considering that the best to ever do it ran a 4.71.

 

 

Jason Peters ran a 4.8 40 at the combine at like 80 pounds heavier than Duke.    It's all relative. 

 

I think we get it that there are exceptions to the rule regarding one specific trait at this point but Duke isn't all that comparable to the list of WR's you are using as an example.    

 

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

2 HOF TEs make you want to see more of a CFL WR that has been active for 3 games? I’m the idiot?

 

The premise is that it would be for more than just 3 games.

 

This team actually has a chance at making legitimate playoff noise this year.

 

Allen is still learning and growing and he's going to take his lumps, which only leaves us to look at improving play calling, offensive execution and offensive talent.

 

Execution probably is what it is 13 games in.

 

Play calling probably is what it is 13 games in.

 

That leaves offensive talent for this stretch run and (I believe and hope) a multi game playoff run.

3 hours ago, fansince88 said:

I guess I wonder about that. Per this link:https://www.rotowire.com/football/player.php?id=13466

He drops 15% but catches 57%. Is thst terrible for a rookie or normal but hecause he is a Bill we notice it more? Not arguing the point just wondering out loud. Perhaps plug in an average TE in the league, is he close? Way off? 

 

Dropping 15% of the passes thrown to you is pretty bad for any NFL WR or TE.

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The premise is that it would be for more than just 3 games.

 

This team actually has a chance at making legitimate playoff noise this year.

 

Allen is still learning and growing and he's going to take his lumps, which only leaves us to look at improving play calling, offensive execution and offensive talent.

 

Execution probably is what it is 13 games in.

 

Play calling probably is what it is 13 games in.

 

That leaves offensive talent for this stretch run and (I believe and hope) a multi game playoff run.

 

Dropping 15% of the passes thrown to you is pretty bad for any NFL WR or TE.

But don’t you think the coaches that see him everyday in practice and break down the film are more equipped to make that decision? Maybe he’s not some great player that just needs a chance. Maybe he’s a fringe NFL player? I subscribe to Occam’s Razor in pretty much every situation.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Nelius said:

 

I'm not really comparing him to anybody per my original disclaimer. I'm making light of the statement that 4.72 in general is too slow to be a WR, especially when considering that the best to ever do it ran a 4.71.

right but when you post the exception to the rule and ignore why he was the exception it doesn’t do much in furthering the conversation 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, fansince88 said:

I guess I wonder about that. Per this link:https://www.rotowire.com/football/player.php?id=13466

He drops 15% but catches 57%. Is thst terrible for a rookie or normal but hecause he is a Bill we notice it more? Not arguing the point just wondering out loud. Perhaps plug in an average TE in the league, is he close? Way off? 

 

Nit: 9 drops out of 45 targets is 20%, not 15.  1 in 5.  That's just bad.  It's league leading bad, and the next guy isn't close at 13.5%

 

I couldn't find data on TE in the league much less averages, so I rolled my own. 

 

Screening for TE with at least 13 targets (eg at least 1 target per game) the average catch % for a TE is 69%!!!! 

If we look at TE who have at least 39 targets (3 targets per game average) the average catch % is.....69% and Dawson Knox is second from last with his 57%.

 

TE are often like RB, used for check downs and short, high percentage routes and tend to have higher completion %, more like WR, 75-80%.  I'll grant you that Knox is asked to run routes more like a WR, where for a young guy learning his craft 60-65% catch % is good.   I'll also grant you that Allen does throw it away in his direction a lot so maybe his target number is inflated a bit.  But all QB throw balls away, Allen maybe less often than he needs to.  

 

If Knox caught half the balls he's dropped (4, say), he'd be at 67% completions which is just fine - and would move him into 2nd place for "highest drops by a TE".

 

I hope he'll get better, because to counterbalance he does some spectacular stuff and shows some promise as a blocker (Judon aside), but LORDY.

 

[fansince88]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Nit: 9 drops out of 45 targets is 20%, not 15.  1 in 5.  That's just bad.  It's league leading bad, and the next guy isn't close at 13.5%

 

I couldn't find data on TE in the league much less averages, so I rolled my own. 

 

Screening for TE with at least 13 targets (eg at least 1 target per game) the average catch % for a TE is 69%!!!! 

If we look at TE who have at least 39 targets (3 targets per game average) the average catch % is.....69% and Dawson Knox is second from last with his 57%.

 

TE are often like RB, used for check downs and short, high percentage routes and tend to have higher completion %, more like WR, 75-80%.  I'll grant you that Knox is asked to run routes more like a WR, where for a young guy learning his craft 60-65% catch % is good.   I'll also grant you that Allen does throw it away in his direction a lot so maybe his target number is inflated a bit.  But all QB throw balls away, Allen maybe less often than he needs to.  

 

If Knox caught half the balls he's dropped (4, say), he'd be at 67% completions which is just fine - and would move him into 2nd place for "highest drops by a TE".

 

I hope he'll get better, because to counterbalance he does some spectacular stuff and shows some promise as a blocker (Judon aside), but LORDY.

 

I get all that but he is a rookie. So many in the fan base want to give up too fast. Lets see what happens.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

But don’t you think the coaches that see him everyday in practice and break down the film are more equipped to make that decision? Maybe he’s not some great player that just needs a chance. Maybe he’s a fringe NFL player? I subscribe to Occam’s Razor in pretty much every situation.

 

After he had some success in his first game, McDermott said stuff like "he needs to realize it's going to get tougher as teams get film on him" and "he needs to keep advancing in his understanding of the playbook" or words to that effect.

 

My impression is that the coaches are watching the #3 WR candidates carefully and adjusting who is active and how many snaps they get accordingly.  Duke needs to show better ability to release off the line, run crisp exact routes, and separate to make up for his lack of speed.  I think we still see potential in him, but he'll have to study hard in the playbook and film, and work on his speed, quickness, and release in the off season to have a shot next year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

I get all that but he is a rookie. So many in the fan base want to give up too fast. Lets see what happens.

 

I'm not giving up but I'm pretty frustrated.  There were 8 TE drafted in the first 3 rounds.  Knox was #6. 

He's currently #3 in yards and #4 in receptions, so it can easily be argued that he's providing value above his draft position.

 

But the other top guys are way way lower in the drops: Fant is worst with 8.5%, Hockenson 3.4%, Smith 2.6%. 

 

I "get it" that Knox went where he went because he simply was not used in the receiving game in college, so he perhaps has a higher learning curve. 

 

I just don't know how much that improves at this level.

 

[fansince88]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not giving up but I'm pretty frustrated.  There were 8 TE drafted in the first 3 rounds.  Knox was #6. 

He's currently #3 in yards and #4 in receptions, so it can easily be argued that he's providing value above his draft position.

 

But the other top guys are way way lower in the drops: Fant is worst with 8.5%, Hockenson 3.4%, Smith 2.6%. 

 

I "get it" that Knox went where he went because he simply was not used in the receiving game in college, so he perhaps has a higher learning curve. 

 

I just don't know how much that improves at this level.

 

Im sure we agree we will find out. That said, I believe he is the best of the position that we have. I have said all along, next year we take the next jump. We are headed in the right direction. 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

But don’t you think the coaches that see him everyday in practice and break down the film are more equipped to make that decision? Maybe he’s not some great player that just needs a chance. Maybe he’s a fringe NFL player? I subscribe to Occam’s Razor in pretty much every situation.

 

I think coaches can get blinded by their own philosophies and schemes and I think that's what's happened with Daboll, who likely has final say in the offensive personnel he's going to use, thus who's active on gameday.

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

But don’t you think the coaches that see him everyday in practice and break down the film are more equipped to make that decision? Maybe he’s not some great player that just needs a chance. Maybe he’s a fringe NFL player? I subscribe to Occam’s Razor in pretty much every situation.

 

Or maybe he could help the offense for a play or to and make a difference.  How long did it take them to start using Singletary more?  Hell, I still sometimes think Daboll could use him more than he does.

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

After he had some success in his first game, McDermott said stuff like "he needs to realize it's going to get tougher as teams get film on him" and "he needs to keep advancing in his understanding of the playbook" or words to that effect.

 

My impression is that the coaches are watching the #3 WR candidates carefully and adjusting who is active and how many snaps they get accordingly.  Duke needs to show better ability to release off the line, run crisp exact routes, and separate to make up for his lack of speed.  I think we still see potential in him, but he'll have to study hard in the playbook and film, and work on his speed, quickness, and release in the off season to have a shot next year.

 

You have all-22 yes?  Any chance you want to look at say the Philly game and give your impression on Williams in that game? Like his route running and stuff. I think that's the last game he played.  I think he may have had a fairly high snap count that game too.

[transplantbillsfan]

48 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

I get all that but he is a rookie. So many in the fan base want to give up too fast. Lets see what happens.

 

No one is saying give up.

 

But we need a reliable pass catcher THIS YEAR.

 

Duke was only targeted 8 times during the regular season but caught 7 of those passes. I believe he caught every target in the preseason.

 

The Bills and Josh Allen in particular need a reliable pass catcher like that in certain situations THIS YEAR!

 

This isn't a long term thing for Duke. Is there a big reliable pass catching WR in the draft? If there is and he's worthy of a 1st round pick I expect we target him in the draft and then Duke is likely not even on the roster next year...

 

BUT...

 

this team is playing for THIS year.

 

Activate Duke because he's the most surehanded guy we have on this team.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

You have all-22 yes?  Any chance you want to look at say the Philly game and give your impression on Williams in that game? Like his route running and stuff. I think that's the last game he played.  I think he may have had a fairly high snap count that game too.

 

I do have all-22, yes, but I'm sorry, I'm really not motivated to look for Williams in that game right now. 

 

He did have a high snap count in the Philly game, 66%.  Caught 1 of 2 targets for 6 yds.  Had a high snap count of 53% in the previous game vs Miami as well.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....he's a damn 3rd round rook who has started nine games.....and who had 18 games of experience at the collegiate level with 39 receptions.....safe to say your expert analytical prowess has carried over from your BBMB days....SMH....

 

Yikes.

 

No ***** Sherlock.

 

Stop being the blind curmudgeon you've proven to be in your obvious personal distaste for me as a poster and read the friggin words that you bolded. Try comprehending what those words actually say before you go on the attack.

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I do have all-22, yes, but I'm sorry, I'm really not motivated to look for Williams in that game right now. 

 

He did have a high snap count in the Philly game, 66%.  Caught 1 of 2 targets for 6 yds.  Had a high snap count of 53% in the previous game vs Miami as well.

 

 

Maybe ill get the trial and take a look.

[fansince88]

52 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

No one is saying give up.

 

But we need a reliable pass catcher THIS YEAR.

 

Duke was only targeted 8 times during the regular season but caught 7 of those passes. I believe he caught every target in the preseason.

 

The Bills and Josh Allen in particular need a reliable pass catcher like that in certain situations THIS YEAR!

 

This isn't a long term thing for Duke. Is there a big reliable pass catching WR in the draft? If there is and he's worthy of a 1st round pick I expect we target him in the draft and then Duke is likely not even on the roster next year...

 

BUT...

 

this team is playing for THIS year.

 

Activate Duke because he's the most surehanded guy we have on this team.

Dont get me wrong. I am and have been on the Duuuuuuuuuke bandwagon since the summer. That said, this post seemed to be a Knox is no good post. Why they are not playing DW I dont know.