What % do you think we have a chance of winning?

[whatdrought]

6 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

I'd argue having a 35-49% chance in a game against an absurdly hot team is not particularly negative, and I tend to get called out as an overly positive fan and it sounds about right to me. Plus, as different as this season has been, it's still hard to shake the feeling, as illogical and irrelevant as it is, that this is the kind of game where we expect a painful loss -- even coming, as it does, on the heels of an overwhelming and convincing win in the ultimate kind of game the Bills usually lose. 

 

That said, there are quite a few reasons to believe the Bills have a better chance than we think in this game:

- Bills are playing on 10 days rest

- Game is in New Era Field

- Bills are arguably the second hottest team in the NFL right now and perhaps their mojo is even more powerful than the Ravens'

- In the past 3 games, the Bills are just the sort of team that could stop a rolling team like the Ravens: an offense coming together and a disruptive, dynamic, hard-hitting, disciplined defense. 

- Overall, they are clearly one of the three high-level defenses (with SF & NE) and outside of a few anomalies they are a young defense, especially in their three potential (well, one is pretty much there) superstars, and there's some reason to believe their ceiling is much higher than it has been so far, and if there is ever a game where a defense could make a statement, this is it. 

 

A team that has 1 more win than us.  Besides, I would argue that how hot they have been is a potential downfall for them. 

 

I’m not saying we will win, but this board leans negative (probably rightfully so due to history) and there’s really no reason this isn’t a completely competitive matchup from the outset. The 7-4 Texans just beat the 10-1 patriots. It’s all relative. 

[Jay_Fixit]

52 minutes ago, MJS said:

Germans?

I guess you’re not on my team when we play Trivial Pursuit Pop Culture edition...

 

Yikes.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Jay_Fixit

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

20 minutes ago, Paulus said:

49.5/49.5? A tie would be interesting.

 

Not if we want the #1 seed 

 

[Starr Almighty]

3 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

It's all about red zone defense. If we hold them to a few FG's and they miss one or two, we can pull this out.  If the Bills win, I see a 27-23 game. If the Ravens win I see a 38-27 kind of game.  Lamar will get his yards. We just have to contain him in the red zone and make them drive long fields. 

Tucker NEVER misses. That will be all ?

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, hemma said:

3 extra days + our Offense is on the ascent = 60%

 

My estimate is 33%.   However, if we do win it will be because of these two things.

[ksm27]

To be a nerd, it's a poorly constructed poll. 4 of the 6 options suggest a tie or loss.   

[OZBILLS]

100%

 

I'm more concerned about the Steelers game 

[section122]

10 minutes ago, ksm27 said:

To be a nerd, it's a poorly constructed poll. 4 of the 6 options suggest a tie or loss.   

 

Yeah give me 100% all by itself.  I'd still pick it.  

 

I'm not putting 5k down but I will be betting Bills money line more money than I want my wife to know about (although even a dollar is more than she likes lol)

[bigK14094]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I went 50%. The Bills are a tough matchup for Baltimore IMO. 

You are correct..in fact, its always theoretically 50/50.  No amount of analytics can change that in this particular game imho.

[Don Otreply]

Being that they are underestimating us, I’m thinking 60% 

 

Go Bills!!!

[LeGOATski]

3 hours ago, whatdrought said:

The majority picking under 50%. The same group of people who would have argued the same about the Cowboys, and were seriously worried about the Broncos. Bills fans gonna Bills fan.

Not really. I wasn't nearly as worried about the Cowboys and picked the Bills to win that game. 

 

This is the first time this year that I've picked the Bills' opponent to win.

[26TrapDraw]

4 hours ago, teef said:

i'm mentally in the 35-40% range...whatever that means.

Ya Know 60% of the time it works every time.

[JROC INTEL]

We are at home, with a defensive minded coach, and fast linebackers. Let's remember Lamar is still young. Granted they are better than the cowboys who supposedly had the best offense in the league. But we manhandled them in Dallas! If those same bills come to play. This is at least a 50/50 split. 

[billsfan89]

I would give the Bills a 40% chance of winning. At home with a quality defense you have a 40% chance no matter who you play. Baltimore is playing as good as anyone in the league and this is a big test for the Bills. Lamar Jackson is a tough matchup as DC's are still trying to find a way to slow him and this offense down. Hopefully McD comes up with something that slows him down and Josh get the offense going with consistency. 

[Bob in STL]

50-% at home and on a good roll …  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

My thoughts exactly before I even opened this thread.  This game can truly go either way.  I'm not worried about LJ through the air, but on the ground is a different story.  If we can stop him on the ground, then we have a great chance to beat them.  I just hope it doesn't boil down to the kickers cuz they truly have the best one in the game right now.

 

I keep thinking about Bill Parcells game plan for the Giants to beat the Bills in the Superbowl.  He basically said "we're going to stop the pass, if he runs on us he runs on us.  We can give up >100 yds to him and win."  135 yds, to be exact.  I don't know what the answer is, but I keep thinking about that.

 

I think part of the answer is to make up our mind firmly what we're going to try to take away, and Go for the Gusto there.

 

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Why aren't they undefeated then?

 

According to 1 fan here and my general feeling from poking about, they think their defense is much better now.  I'm not entirely clear on how lacking a better defense held their offense to 28 and 25 points when they actually had a 5+ minute advantage in TOP vs KC and threw 2 picks/fumbled 2x vs the Browns, but that seems to be the feeling.

[billsfan_34]

5 hours ago, KellyToTasker said:

Everything works until it doesn’t ??‍♂️ I hope he eats crow.  

Kinda like Brady - a shell of himself now

[Just Joshin']

45%.....Ravens with a small edge.  At the end of the day the team with less mistakes will win.

[Bubba Gump]

I said 50%. Baltimore and/or Jackson has to have a bad game sooner or later, right? They've won 8 in a row and Buffalo is their toughest remaining game. I feel pretty good about the Bills chances. A freak lake effect storm would help even more, but that ain't happening.

[hondo in seattle]

This game and the Pats games are the only two games I've gone into expecting a loss.   

 

But if Josh plays like he did last Sunday...