Joe B. All-22 vs Cowboys: Ford may have sealed his fate as a Guard in 2020

[atlbillsfan1975]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Beane lucked out in that there was talent available.  You can't sign decent/good FAs if they aren't available, and with OLers, even guys who are decent/good but not great never make it to FA.  It's the same in the draft.  Just because the Bills really need a WR1 and this looks like a good year for WRs doesn't mean that the WRs available when they pick are what they want -- or that there's not a better player at another position available that ought to be a no-brainer to take.

 

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

When you have nothing to add to discussions except to engage in ad hominem attacks, you demonstrate the quality of your football knowledge or lack of same.

Ok, speaking of football knowledge, do we know what olineman will be available in FA this up coming year? I’m sure one of the better posters in this area can quickly provide the options. 
The draft is a little more subjective where talent will fall, but I’m sure there will be some available in every round. 
Beane showed he could find talent. If it’s luck, ok. I just think he is to smart of a guy. Like he left WR and De available as a draft option for the 2020 draft, both positions have been mentioned many places as being deep this year. Again, could be luck or could be strategy. Either way if the wins keep happening, I’ll take it.
 

Edited December 5, 2019 by atlbillsfan1975

[Thurman#1]

On 12/4/2019 at 10:57 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It depends upon who you read.  Erik Turner (Cover1) is pretty good.  He's not 100%, but he's pretty good.

 

 

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing about - that a QB roll-out to buy time for the secondary route to develop is a part of the run and shoot?

 

You can debate that specific play - Looking again at the all 22, Ford does lose the guy at the point where Allen steps forward, then he re-engages and keeps him off Allen's back.  But it's a secondary route, and needs time beyond the primary route to develop.

 

Edit: I think this is a different play than you're quoting Cover1 about - Allen's throw from the endzone - but I think this is pretty definitive.

This is Eric Wood breaking down the play on the Bills "Chopping Wood" segment and he specifically calls out Ford IN A GOOD WAY for "driving DeMarcus Lawrence by"

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/chopping-wood-beast-mode-beasley-and-extraordinary-ed-oliver

 

PS no, the TD throw to Beas that he specifically called out as an SMU play is NOT from the pocket.  Look at it again.  That's Allen on the hashes at the 33 and Beasley on the "1" at the 10.  If you look at it very similar play from Ford where he starts to get beat outside and then drives the defender by Allen into the backfield, then Allen slides right and forward while waiting for Beas' 2ndary route.

 

 

 

I'm disagreeing with the whole idea of rolling out having been intended here or in any of the plays on that whole video.

 

You said, "... it's less bolting from the pocket than the designed roll-out and secondary routes concepts from Mouse Davis run-and-shoot that Beasley ran at SMU under June Jones." But it wasn't a designed roll-out, none of the plays on video had any rollout of any kind, there was no mention of rolling out or any synonym or anything like it in the rest of the article, including all the stuff on June Jones.

 

The play itself wasn't a designed rollout, it was a straight dropback with Josh being forced off his spot when Ford had trouble with the edge rush. Do you use the word "rollout" when the QB first moves up in the pocket underneath outside pressure and then runs wide? I certainly don't, and that would seem to me a misuse. Roll means a rounded shape, it implies that the QB runs or rolls around the outside of the pocket, not that he steps up and then escapes out the edge. What Josh did I would not call a rollout in any way shape or form, and it certainly wasn't designed. The dropback was straight back.

 

He did escape the pocket, but nowhere in the Mouse Davis stuff did the QB even escape the pocket, nor is that idea mentioned in the text about Mouse. QB rollouts may be a part of the run-and-shoot - they're part of nearly every offense at times such as when protection is regularly breaking down and on certain plays - but neither of those college plays was a rollout, designed or not, nor did the QB leave the pocket.

 

Here's June Jones, Beasley's coach who he learned the play from, breaking down that exact play. He does not mention escaping the pocket in any way, and in fact expects the QB to generally make his mind up and throw at just about the time in the play when Allen was being forced to leave his spot. He has a video. Again, no leaving the pocket and no mention of the possibility.

 

 

Thanks for pointing me towards the "Chopping Wood" interview, it was nice. But I disagree that he said that anything very positive about Ford on that play out of the end zone you mention. He's really positive about the line as a whole, and then says Ford, "is able to drive DeMarcus Lawrence by." It's questionable whether he's saying anything more positive there than that Ford didn't quite let Allen get sacked. That's hardly "in a good way," to my ears. More like that with the help of Allen stepping up and ducking under, Ford didn't allow a sack, though he did allow the rusher to force Allen to leave his spot. Since the guard and center both did a great job, Allen was able to step up and then escape, but while Ford didn't allow a catastrophe, he also didn't do well.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 12/5/2019 at 2:51 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Eric Wood seems to think he can.  Von Miller gave him props.  Huh.

 

 

Again, I don't think it's all that clear that Wood thinks he can.

 

In the same Eric Wood video you mentioned, on Beasley's TD, Wood says, "... and Josh Allen operating out of an empty set is able to identify the coverage pre-snap, he does a great job of avoiding the rush, stepping up to his right and he finds just ..."

 

Strangely, Eric doesn't mention Ford specifically on that play, in which it is Ford's man who forces Josh to do a great job of avoiding the rush.

 

 

 

I hope the more optimistic folks here are right. If he can get better and start handling faster edge rushers better, it'd be great news for the Bills. It's early, maybe he can do it, but it looks to me more like a physical inability to move that quickly rather than anything technique-related. I could be wrong though.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 12/3/2019 at 7:12 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's not unheard of for OL players to improve a lot with a good offseason.

 

I personally am not in favor of moving on from Spain.

 

I mean. He's a free agent. He could choose to move on, more money etc.

[Royale with Cheese]

20 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Beane lucked out in that there was talent available.  You can't sign decent/good FAs if they aren't available, and with OLers, even guys who are decent/good but not great never make it to FA.  It's the same in the draft.  Just because the Bills really need a WR1 and this looks like a good year for WRs doesn't mean that the WRs available when they pick are what they want -- or that there's not a better player at another position available that ought to be a no-brainer to take.

My god dude grow up.  You will lead a crusade of negativity against the Bills but when there’s success, it’s “luck”.  You’re so one sided in your views it’s ridiculous.

 

Beane hires scouts to scout players.  These are the players they targeted.  They understood the market.  That’s not luck like you will stubbornly say it is.  
 

If the Bills win Sunday, won’t hear much from you.  If they lose...man you’ll be singing on these boards.

[Royale with Cheese]

21 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

When you have nothing to add to discussions except to engage in ad hominem attacks, you demonstrate the quality of your football knowledge or lack of same.

You have added nothing on this board.  You just B word and complain.

[Royale with Cheese]

22 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Sorry, man, that ship has sailed with you. You live in a fantasy land.  You simply are not to be taken seriously, especially for the exact example I cited above. 

 

 

Want to know how much in fantasy land he really is?  This was an argument he had with me before the season.  This just shows you he just blurts things out without putting any thought behind it.  He's telling me he never brought up first time HC's....that I was the one who did.  It was so bizarre...I had to save it.

[BurpleBull]

I think he'd thrive at G for the most part, but I think he'd still struggle a bit picking up blitzes that aren't coming straight at him. 

 

Stop trying to fit a square peg in a round hole and just find a high quality replacement at RT. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

58 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

 

Want to know how much in fantasy land he really is?  This was an argument he had with me before the season.  This just shows you he just blurts things out without putting any thought behind it.  He's telling me he never brought up first time HC's....that I was the one who did.  It was so bizarre...I had to save it.

 

I keep using the word beautiful to describe it. I've just never seen anything like it. It is a beautiful chaos.  Good to keep receipts on guys like him. Total hypocrite. 

[The Frankish Reich]

On 12/3/2019 at 7:01 PM, nedboy7 said:

What did PFF have to say about this???

I know mentioning PFF around here is guaranteed to get eye rolls, but FWIW (and they review/grade every play from scrimmage, something most of us don't have time or skill to do) here's they're scores for our O line so far this year. I don't pay PFF for premium, but I think the 60ish range is considered the floor for an above "replacement level" player. 70 and above is usually a starter grade. 85 and above are pro bowlers.

 

Ford 54.2

Spain 59.5

Morse 60.9

Feliciano 61.4

Nsekhe 67.3

Dawkins 71.5

 

Quick points from my non-expert perspective:

-I think the ranking is about right (e.g., Dawkins clearly the best, Ford clearly the worst), although I don't have any basis to say something like "Nsekhe is 13 points better than Ford." Better? Indeed.

-I also think you have a veteran group (minus Ford) that works together better than perhaps the individual performances would suggest. A kind of "whole is greater than the sum of the parts" thing. And the line was so awful last year - particularly at the start of the year - that simple competence is pretty remarkable for Bills fans. It was a huge turnaround, and combined with a couple veteran/above average receivers and Allen's growth, the offense has gone from awful to solid (with better to come?) in record time.

 

EDIT: I'll note that Knox/Smith/Kroft are huge upgrades over what we got on the blocking side of the equation from Clay/O'Leary/Croom last year, so that helps too. Yes, even Lee Smith (in the average range for TEs overall, and we know he contributes zero in the receiving category)

 

By the way, thanks to many of the insightful commenters here. I enjoy reading a thread and feeling like I've actually learned something. (Or maybe I'm just in the mood to spread holiday cheer)

 

Edited December 6, 2019 by The Frankish Reich

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, BurpleBull said:

I think he'd thrive at G for the most part, but I think he'd still struggle a bit picking up blitzes that aren't coming straight at him. 

 

Stop trying to fit a square peg in a round hole and just find a high quality replacement at RT. 

I think that is entirely possible especially with the Beane "We will start him out at RT" comment he made before the draft

 

The question is....what RT possibilities WILL be available.....def not against drafting one.....what will be available in free at RT in free agency.   I dont want to sign someone just to sign someone remember we also have Waddle coming back.

[Reader]

12 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I know mentioning PFF around here is guaranteed to get eye rolls, but FWIW (and they review/grade every play from scrimmage, something most of us don't have time or skill to do) here's they're scores for our O line so far this year. I don't pay PFF for premium, but I think the 60ish range is considered the floor for an above "replacement level" player. 70 and above is usually a starter grade. 85 and above are pro bowlers.

 

Ford 54.2

Spain 59.5

Morse 60.9

Feliciano 61.4

Nsekhe 67.3

Dawkins 71.5

 

Quick points from my non-expert perspective:

-I think the ranking is about right (e.g., Dawkins clearly the best, Ford clearly the worst), although I don't have any basis to say something like "Nsekhe is 13 points better than Ford." Better? Indeed.

-I also think you have a veteran group (minus Ford) that works together better than perhaps the individual performances would suggest. A kind of "whole is greater than the sum of the parts" thing. And the line was so awful last year - particularly at the start of the year - that simple competence is pretty remarkable for Bills fans. It was a huge turnaround, and combined with a couple veteran/above average receivers and Allen's growth, the offense has gone from awful to solid (with better to come?) in record time.

 

EDIT: I'll note that Knox/Smith/Kroft are huge upgrades over what we got on the blocking side of the equation from Clay/O'Leary/Croom last year, so that helps too. Yes, even Lee Smith (in the average range for TEs overall, and we know he contributes zero in the receiving category)

 

By the way, thanks to many of the insightful commenters here. I enjoy reading a thread and feeling like I've actually learned something. (Or maybe I'm just in the mood to spread holiday cheer)

 

 

One caveat I might add to this is that we don't know how they are graded for running versus passing. I believe that Ford has been touted as a better run blocker than pass blocker, while I would expect that it's the opposite for all or most of the rest of our lineman.

 

Also, our highest paid lineman Morse

[billsfan89]

On 12/5/2019 at 7:49 AM, SoTier said:

 

Beane lucked out in that there was talent available.  You can't sign decent/good FAs if they aren't available, and with OLers, even guys who are decent/good but not great never make it to FA.  It's the same in the draft.  Just because the Bills really need a WR1 and this looks like a good year for WRs doesn't mean that the WRs available when they pick are what they want -- or that there's not a better player at another position available that ought to be a no-brainer to take.

 

Your assessment would be more accurate if most of Beane's successful signings were in super strong free agent classes flushed with talent. But Beane hit on many middling and under-appreciated free agents. This O-line market was not flushed with players. Feliciano, Spain, and Ty were mid-market or lower market free agents who are available in any free agent market. 

 

The WR market was rather average. Tyrell Williams, Adam Humphries, and Randle Cobb were some of the best talents on the market outside of Brown and Beasley. John Brown was an often injured WR whose most productive season was barely above 1000 yards several years ago. Cole Beasley was a mid-level solid slot WR. Neither Brown nor Beasley were exactly slam dunk signings. Beane's only duh signing was Andre Roberts who was so cheap for a pro-bowl special teams player at a position of need (although how many times have the Bills not made those types of signings.) 

 

The overall free agent market this past off-season while not bad was nothing special (No NFL free agency class is really special thanks to the Franchise tag and the fact that players will often get taken care of before they hit free agency.) Some of Beane's biggest hits in this market were on Feliciano and Spain players who were signed to lower end deals. 

 

Beane also made these massive improvements without tying up their cap long term. Only Mitch is hard to get out of past 2020. So the team is going to be in a position to supplement an already good roster over the rest of the course of Josh's rookie deal the next 3 seasons as even when Tre, Dawkins, Milano, Poyer and others come up for extensions some other significant contracts like Star will be able to be dropped.

[The Frankish Reich]

23 minutes ago, Reader said:

 

One caveat I might add to this is that we don't know how they are graded for running versus passing. I believe that Ford has been touted as a better run blocker than pass blocker, while I would expect that it's the opposite for all or most of the rest of our lineman.

 

Also, our highest paid lineman Morse

Good points. I agree re: run vs. pass blocking. I think every veteran O lineman we picked up in the offseason graded higher last year in pass blocking vs. run blocking. Obviously protecting Allen and giving him time to learn/progress was the priority. Thankfully we also got Singletary, who appears fully capable of making yardage even when the holes aren't there.

On Morse: PFF may also undervalue him as he may be the key part to the "whole is more than the sum of the parts" thing, as the leader/caller on the O line.

[whatdrought]

28 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think that is entirely possible especially with the Beane "We will start him out at RT" comment he made before the draft

 

The question is....what RT possibilities WILL be available.....def not against drafting one.....what will be available in free at RT in free agency.   I dont want to sign someone just to sign someone remember we also have Waddle coming back.

 

Jack Conklin is going to be a FA... I don't know how he's played lately, (based on how bad the TEN line is, probably not good) but his rookie year he made all-pro, if I'm not mistaken. 

[ColoradoBills]

26 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think that is entirely possible especially with the Beane "We will start him out at RT" comment he made before the draft

 

The question is....what RT possibilities WILL be available.....def not against drafting one.....what will be available in free at RT in free agency.   I dont want to sign someone just to sign someone remember we also have Waddle coming back.

 

Waddle is a free agent next year.

[The Frankish Reich]

30 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Your assessment would be more accurate if most of Beane's successful signings were in super strong free agent classes flushed with talent. But Beane hit on many middling and under-appreciated free agents. This O-line market was not flushed with players. Feliciano, Spain, and Ty were mid-market or lower market free agents who are available in any free agent market. 

 

The WR market was rather average. Tyrell Williams, Adam Humphries, and Randle Cobb were some of the best talents on the market outside of Brown and Beasley. John Brown was an often injured WR whose most productive season was barely above 1000 yards several years ago. Cole Beasley was a mid-level solid slot WR. Neither Brown nor Beasley were exactly slam dunk signings. Beane's only duh signing was Andre Roberts who was so cheap for a pro-bowl special teams player at a position of need (although how many times have the Bills not made those types of signings.) 

 

The overall free agent market this past off-season while not bad was nothing special (No NFL free agency class is really special thanks to the Franchise tag and the fact that players will often get taken care of before they hit free agency.) Some of Beane's biggest hits in this market were on Feliciano and Spain players who were signed to lower end deals. 

 

Beane also made these massive improvements without tying up their cap long term. Only Mitch is hard to get out of past 2020. So the team is going to be in a position to supplement an already good roster over the rest of the course of Josh's rookie deal the next 3 seasons as even when Tre, Dawkins, Milano, Poyer and others come up for extensions some other significant contracts like Star will be able to be dropped.

Agreed. This was a fantastic offseason for Beane. As is often the case, its clear (Kroft) or uncertain (Morse) whether the big dollar signings were worth it. But the mid-level (Brown, Beasley, re-signing Jordan Phillips, Nsekhe) and cheapo (Gore, the other O linemen, even Lee Smith) have all been hits. The only one I might argue about (here I agree with you too): Andre Roberts. He's been exactly what they thought he'd be, but he's definitely on the high end for a return-only guy. Not a bust, just pricey.

Edited December 6, 2019 by The Frankish Reich

[ColoradoBills]

35 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Jack Conklin is going to be a FA... I don't know how he's played lately, (based on how bad the TEN line is, probably not good) but his rookie year he made all-pro, if I'm not mistaken. 

 

Looks like he might be available.  Titans didn't pick up his 5th year option.  He's had some knee issues.

I'm wondering how much the Bills will be looking for a swing tackle if Ty doesn't make the team next year.

There is no real backup at LT other than him.

[RyanC883]

keep Spain.  Put Ford at Guard.  FA tackle, and draft one.