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Week 14 - Ravens (-6.5) at Bills Over/Under 44


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We will need great safety play. 

We need to play gap sound and have Poyer/ Hyde essentially "shadowing" Lamar and playing down in the box, disguising coverages. I think having a safety in the box as an extra LB essentially while playing hook/hole would be huge. 

 

Now this is also where we benefit from the athleticism of Milano and Edumunds. I'm interested to see what McD / Frazier draw up for this. I think we can absolutely get away with Cover 1 given how athletic we are.

 

The Chargers did this last year with Derwin James and Lamar couldn't break free. 

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1 minute ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Ok I'm old and don't know all the new fancy stats, WTF is DVOA

 

Defense-adjusted-value-over-who-the-heck-cares-he's-obviously-playing-well

2 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

We will need great safety play. 

We need to play gap sound and have Poyer/ Hyde essentially "shadowing" Lamar and playing down in the box, disguising coverages. I think having a safety in the box as an extra LB essentially while playing hook/hole would be huge. 

 

Now this is also where we benefit from the athleticism of Milano and Edumunds. I'm interested to see what McD / Frazier draw up for this. I think we can absolutely get away with Cover 1 given how athletic we are.

 

The Chargers did this last year with Derwin James and Lamar couldn't break free. 

 

Yep. Exactly what I said up thread.

 

Good stuff 

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3 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Ok I'm old and don't know all the new fancy stats, WTF is DVOA

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

 

THE ULTRA-SHORT VERSION:

DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

THE SHORT VERSION:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.

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I want the Ravens to wear their light colored jerseys.

 

anyone else notice it appeared with the weather and their all black uni's Lamar was able to disguise the exchange more?  May be insignificant in the grand scheme but it appeared to me to help in a number of plays.

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56 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

I’m hoping for a blizzard. Anyone know the long-range forecast? 

(Of course, I’ll be watching from Florida, so...)

44° Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. Low 43F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Edited by DaBillsFanSince1973
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We've scored 37, 20 and 26 since the Cleveland game.  The 20 and 26 are results of us basically running out the clock for an extended period of time. 

 

Our Offense is becoming, dare I say... good?

 

Josh Allen has taken some huge steps forward as the season has gone on.  It looks like it's started to click for him.  Our OL is legitimately a top half of the league unit and we have playmakers in Singletary, Knox, Brown, Beasley, Foster and McKenzie.  That's a talented QB, with a good OL and a lot of speedy playmakers finding their identity post-Cleveland in the up-tempo run & shoot/K-Gun offense.

 

I have to think this highly rated defense is pretty excited for the opportunity to do what New England and San Fran's Defense could not.  (Granted, SF held them to 20, but their offense didn't come through)

 

It won't be easy, but i'm really liking what I see from this team, on both sides of the ball.                        

 

 

Edited by SCBills
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4 hours ago, dubs said:

This could be totally stupid because I’m not an NFL defensive coordinator, but, here goes...

 

Id clog the line and keep everyone in their lanes. I’m talking 4 or 5 linemen in the gaps, 2 or 3 LBs playing off the line and crashing, a safety in the middle and two DBs. The second it’s apparent it’s not a run, drop the LBs, a lineman, and clog up the middle passing lanes. Make Jackson stay and throw to the sidelines or in really tight windows. 
 

 

That's a pretty good stab at how the defense plays the Ravens O to me. ?

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Quick blind player comparison:
 

Player A - 12 games with 32 receptions for 367 and 2 TDs (1st Rd Pick)

Player B - 12 games with 25 receptions for 307 and 2 TDs (3rd Rd Pick)

 

 

Player A - TJ Hockenson

Player B - Rambo Knox

 

Happened to stumble on this when I saw Hockenson is going to IR. Found it interesting considering how popular a pick Hockenson was in a lot of mock drafts for our selection. 

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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Ravens went out in the off-season and added players, then revised their offensive scheme so as to avoid last season.

 

Key offensive skill player additions:

-Mark Ingram at RB.  30 years old, 5 ypa, and 70 ypg

-Nick Boyle (R) at TE

-Marquise Brown (R) at WR

-a much more pass-capable Lamar Jackson

 

What the Ravens looked like against the 9ers with 100+ yards passing, 180 yds rushing, and 20 points, is about as close to shut down as one's gonna get

 

The Bills went out in the off season and added players, then revised their offensive scheme so as to avoid last season.

 

Key offensive skill player additions:

-Devin Singletary (R) and Frank Gore at RB.

-Dawson Knox (R) at TE

-John Brown and Cole Beasley at WR

-a much more pass-capable Josh Allen

 

The Ravens went from playoff team to contender.  The Bills went from inconsistent underdog to contender.  We'll play them tough.

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