Week 14 - Ravens (-6.5) at Bills Over/Under 44

[Jaydee414]

Thanks for the welcome, guys. 
As re my “slanted narrative”, I get what you are saying, and of course my take is somewhat slanted. I have seen a heck of a lot more Ravens games/film/breakdowns, etc...than I have of the Bills. Were I in Buffalo, perhaps I would slant the other way having limited opportunity to see a lot of the Ravens. 
I can also understand why fans in other NFL locales are tired of hearing “Lamar, Lamar, Lamar...”. He IS the “flavor of the month”, and then some. His talent is rare. He is, at 22 in his 2nd year, already better than Michael Vick ever was; Vick being the most frequented comparison. I wager that on Sunday, at least once, LJ will elicit an audible “WOW” from viewers. 
As to the BUF WR’s, it is nice to see Smoke having a good year. He is obviously a better fit in the BUF system than he was/would be here in BAL. He does not, however, elicit any great concern. Beasley, OTOH, is just the annoying little gnat type of WR that can be effective. The BAL slot  CB they were counting on went on IR early, (Tavon Young), and none of Humphries, J. Smith, nor Peters is a true slot CB. 

A reference was made by a poster that BUF likes to force teams to dink-N-dunk their way down the field. 
OK. 

The Ravens do D-N-D pretty well, as evidenced by the lopsided TOP in most games. 
 

KC beat the Ravens in wk 3 in a good game. CLE skull-drug them in wk4. Note that there has been an almost 50% change in D personnel from those games. This Ravens D is not nearly in the same class as the Ray Lewis/Ed Reed D of years past, but they are pretty darn good. 
 

Really looking forward to 1pm tomorrow. 

[Hsker4life]

Love to see Flutie in Bills gear. Buffalo’s management really screwed him over back in the day.

[RavensFan]

8 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Watson is elusive, but I think Allen is more so. Hard to say for sure either way. I hope we're running enough that you guys wont be able to key off on the blitz.

 

I have said several times that this feels like a good matchup (maybe that's me being too prideful of our chances) - but who do you think would be the best matchup for you guys across the whole NFL? The 49ers obviously were a good one, but they didn't really have an answer for Lamar (also kinda a bad sample with that weather) 

 

Unfortunately, the Browns and Steelers seem to have the right personnel to match up with this offense. That’s 4 games every year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

Unfortunately, the Browns and Steelers seem to have the right personnel to match up with this offense. That’s 4 games every year.

 

At this time, they both seem to be teams in a bit of disarray.  You get to face the Browns again without Myles Garrett, and the Steelers QB'd by Duck Hodges.

 

I guess we'll have to see if they pull it together to finish out the season, and how they come back next year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, Jaydee414 said:

Thanks for the welcome, guys. 
As re my “slanted narrative”, I get what you are saying, and of course my take is somewhat slanted. I have seen a heck of a lot more Ravens games/film/breakdowns, etc...than I have of the Bills. Were I in Buffalo, perhaps I would slant the other way having limited opportunity to see a lot of the Ravens. 
I can also understand why fans in other NFL locales are tired of hearing “Lamar, Lamar, Lamar...”. He IS the “flavor of the month”, and then some. His talent is rare. He is, at 22 in his 2nd year, already better than Michael Vick ever was; Vick being the most frequented comparison. I wager that on Sunday, at least once, LJ will elicit an audible “WOW” from viewers. 
As to the BUF WR’s, it is nice to see Smoke having a good year. He is obviously a better fit in the BUF system than he was/would be here in BAL. He does not, however, elicit any great concern. Beasley, OTOH, is just the annoying little gnat type of WR that can be effective. The BAL slot  CB they were counting on went on IR early, (Tavon Young), and none of Humphries, J. Smith, nor Peters is a true slot CB. 

A reference was made by a poster that BUF likes to force teams to dink-N-dunk their way down the field. 
OK. 

The Ravens do D-N-D pretty well, as evidenced by the lopsided TOP in most games. 
 

KC beat the Ravens in wk 3 in a good game. CLE skull-drug them in wk4. Note that there has been an almost 50% change in D personnel from those games. This Ravens D is not nearly in the same class as the Ray Lewis/Ed Reed D of years past, but they are pretty darn good. 
 

Really looking forward to 1pm tomorrow. 

 

I'd still like to hear one of our Ravens visitors here comment on your situation at center.  I keep asking and no one takes me up on it.  If I heard Harbaugh correctly, your center sets the protections for Lamar, so being on the same page is key.  Skura on IR.  Who's gonna play at center and what do you expect?

 

I guess we'll see if Smoke ought to elicit any great concern.   That does seem just a wee scootch arrogant predictively.  He's being used rather differently here; we'll see.

You guys did do a nice job shutting down Hopkins - some would say 7 receptions for 80 yards doesn't exactly count as shut down, but yeah, for Hopkins, it does.  But again - being used differently.

[MDH]

11 hours ago, Logic said:

Thanks for the quality post and welcome to the forum. Hope you stick around after the game, regardless of the outcome.

Your writeup is generally pretty spot on, from my perspective. The one thing I'll say is that I really don't see Jackson doing much damage through the air against the Bills. I ESPECIALLY don't see the Ravens receivers having big games. The Bills have the third ranked passing defense, and their specialty is not allowing big plays. They will give up the underneath stuff happily in the name of preventing big plays. They make you dink and dunk your way down the field, betting that you'll make a mistake along the way. The Bills have Tre'Davious White, who has been shutting down opposing number one receivers all season. They have also faced some pretty scary speed threat WRs this year and haven't given up much, if anything, to them. Lastly, weather reports show possible 35 mph winds in Orchard Park on Sunday. Given that fact and the fact that the Bills' defensive weakness is defending the run game, I don't expect a huge passing game output from Baltimore. 

On the other hand, the Bills defense ABSOLUTELY can be gashed in the running game. I know this sounds strange, but I'm actually less worried about Jackson than Ingram. Buffalo has two defensive specialties: Speed and discipline. Luckily for them, those are the ingredients needed to slow the Baltimore attack. Running sideways or trying to win through straight drop back passing are not recipes for success against Buffalo. Running north and south and then opening up the play action game is the key to victory. Buffalo is prone to stretches of absolutely horrendous run defense. My concern for the Bills defensively is that Baltimore will have their way with them in the run game, thus opening up play action at the second level.

At the end of the day, I expect it to be a relatively low scoring game, something like 20-17. Buffalo's best shot at victory is to find a way to match Baltimore score for score and get the ball last at the end with a chance to win it.

If the Bills wind up losing, the silver lining for Bills fans will be that the playoffs likely go through Baltimore rather than New England. If and when y'all face off against Belichick's boys for the second time in the playoffs, please do us a favor: KICK THEIR ASS!

 

 

A large part of the Bills struggles vs. the run is scheme based. They bring an 8th and 9th man into the box less than any other team in the league. While they’re not happy to give up those runs they’ll take them over big plays in the passing game. That said, I think they bring extra men into the box this week and dare Lamar to beat them deep. I’d rather give the Ravens the deep outside with Tre in single coverage than let them hammer the D in the run game.

[Dablitzkrieg]

Bills by 20

[DarkBird]

Pat Mekari will play center.  He's a UDFA rookie who has more than performed the past couple weeks.

[DarkBird]

8 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

Jackson is the flavor of the month. The eye test of him throwing the ball says it all about what his career will be. Harbaugh and Roman are the superstars here. One of NFL history's greatest examples of maximizing a weak QB's strengths to the limit. Reading the hype the last few weeks makes me feel like I'm in bizarro world. 

 

What worries me is the Raven organization's extraordinary will to win and unreal execution & blocking. That's the true story here. Will the Bills bend to the Ravens expectation of victory? The game tomorrow will be physical and even more so, mental. Are the Bills mentally prepared to take the next step? Is Josh mentally ready to become a national superstar? Is the media ready to put their original narratives in the trash? 

 

Are the fans ready for the thrashing we're going to give Jackson tomorrow?

It's funny, every other team has said the same thing until they play him.  As far as passing, you obviously have not watched the Ravens games, looked at his metrics, listened to experts, or looked at the quality of opponents he's beaten badly.  He's the leading candidate for MVP, had 2 perfect passer ratings, 25 passing touchdowns and only 5 ints.  He has done this on HALF the offensive drives that Russell Wilson has had.  That's because the offense is the most prolific since the 2007 Patriots.

 

research a bit before trying that old narrative that Jackson can't throw and isn't a great QB.

[ToGoGo]

4 minutes ago, DarkBird said:

It's funny, every other team has said the same thing until they play him.  As far as passing, you obviously have not watched the Ravens games, looked at his metrics, listened to experts, or looked at the quality of opponents he's beaten badly.  He's the leading candidate for MVP, had 2 perfect passer ratings, 25 passing touchdowns and only 5 ints.  He has done this on HALF the offensive drives that Russell Wilson has had.  That's because the offense is the most prolific since the 2007 Patriots.

 

research a bit before trying that old narrative that Jackson can't throw and isn't a great QB.

 

That's assumptive. 

 

I've watched the 49ers, Seahawks, and Pats games this year. I stand by my statement. His reads are limited. The entire offense is dependent on the threat of him running. He's obsessed with the middle of the field. 

 

I agree that his stats are great. But I believe things will balance out sooner or later. I do not see a franchise QB. I see an athletic guy in a premier winning organization being put in an excellent position to succeed. I put most of this success on the Ravens organization, and not Lamar Jackson, who is playing above and beyond in the position he was placed in. 

 

What's the point in debating and "researching"? As if football fans who look at advanced stats are a bunch of scholars or something. Let's see who's right tomorrow. 

 

 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, DarkBird said:

It's funny, every other team has said the same thing until they play him.  As far as passing, you obviously have not watched the Ravens games, looked at his metrics, listened to experts, or looked at the quality of opponents he's beaten badly.  He's the leading candidate for MVP, had 2 perfect passer ratings, 25 passing touchdowns and only 5 ints.  He has done this on HALF the offensive drives that Russell Wilson has had.  That's because the offense is the most prolific since the 2007 Patriots.

 

research a bit before trying that old narrative that Jackson can't throw and isn't a great QB.

 

This is not to say that Jackson wont grow overtime, but he makes a lot of one read throws.  I don't believe he can really read a defense at all.  The scheme makes it easy for him.  Please don't take that as a knock.  For your team, this year, that works and he does a fantastic job running it.  I just don't think it's sustainable long term.  What might work great this season, because its new, might not work so well next season when DC's have a long time to watch tape and come up with an answer.    I also don't think Jackson can make every throw on the field.  

 

Eventually his athleticism will wear down and DC's will catch up to the scheme.  He will have to evolve.  I am not saying that he can't.  I am just that he will have to.  Jackson is an incredible athlete.  He is certainly one of the best, if not the best, athletes on the field in most games.  It's just that I have seen these types of offenses go from explosive to not work very well.  This is a similar offense that was run in SF with Kaepernick.  Jackson runs it better and it has evolved some but still its similar.  That team fell apart after two years.

[thebandit27]

12 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

now circle the pull down on the right side 

 

 

 

 

Get away from my QB before your team-killing, me-first attitude gets on him you Boston slime.

[thebandit27]

5 hours ago, DarkBird said:

It's funny, every other team has said the same thing until they play him.  As far as passing, you obviously have not watched the Ravens games, looked at his metrics, listened to experts, or looked at the quality of opponents he's beaten badly.  He's the leading candidate for MVP, had 2 perfect passer ratings, 25 passing touchdowns and only 5 ints.  He has done this on HALF the offensive drives that Russell Wilson has had.  That's because the offense is the most prolific since the 2007 Patriots.

 

research a bit before trying that old narrative that Jackson can't throw and isn't a great QB.

 

He can throw, and he is playing great.

 

He's also functioning in the same limited, hi-lo, half-field read offense that Roman ran with Tuh-rod here. Right now, it's working because the RPO and pin/pull style OL movement is affording him a lot of extra time to read his keys. It helped Taylor to consecutive pro bowls here; we know what we're seeing.

 

That's not to say that Jackson is Taylor, or that he won't continue to play well. The point is that we need to see how he responds when teams disrupt the offense's timing as SF did last week. Jackson's 200 yards of total offense and a YPA of just over 5.0 doesn't exactly point to sustainable success on offense. So like I said, let's see how quickly he can adapt.

Edited December 8, 2019 by thebandit27

[Rockinon]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd still like to hear one of our Ravens visitors here comment on your situation at center.  I keep asking and no one takes me up on it.  If I heard Harbaugh correctly, your center sets the protections for Lamar, so being on the same page is key.  Skura on IR.  Who's gonna play at center and what do you expect?

 

I guess we'll see if Smoke ought to elicit any great concern.   That does seem just a wee scootch arrogant predictively.  He's being used rather differently here; we'll see.

You guys did do a nice job shutting down Hopkins - some would say 7 receptions for 80 yards doesn't exactly count as shut down, but yeah, for Hopkins, it does.  But again - being used differently.

Wonder if a couple of early blitzes run right up the middle will be a nice welcome for the new center. See if he can handle it without getting the jitters.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Wonder if a couple of early blitzes run right up the middle will be a nice welcome for the new center. See if he can handle it without getting the jitters.

 

A blitzing Edmunds plus Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips is a lot for ANY interior to handle.

[Rockinon]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

A blitzing Edmunds plus Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips is a lot for ANY interior to handle.

Just speculating on their backup center being able to handle the job. Get him nervous and that can be a huge advantage. Seen a lot of games go south when a center is making mistakes.

[RavensFan]

1 hour ago, Rockinon said:

Just speculating on their backup center being able to handle the job. Get him nervous and that can be a huge advantage. Seen a lot of games go south when a center is making mistakes.

 

His first playing time was against Aaron Donald. His first start was against the top d-line in the league. Line calls are probably being handled by Marshal Yanda(6-time All-Pro). So good luck trying to rattle the rookie.

 

Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the o-line’s performance against the Niners:

 

https://filmstudybaltimore.com/offensive-line-scoring-vs-49ers-12-1-19/

Edited December 8, 2019 by RavensFan

[RavensFan]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This is not to say that Jackson wont grow overtime, but he makes a lot of one read throws.  I don't believe he can really read a defense at all.  The scheme makes it easy for him.  Please don't take that as a knock.  For your team, this year, that works and he does a fantastic job running it.  I just don't think it's sustainable long term.  What might work great this season, because its new, might not work so well next season when DC's have a long time to watch tape and come up with an answer.    I also don't think Jackson can make every throw on the field.  

 

Eventually his athleticism will wear down and DC's will catch up to the scheme.  He will have to evolve.  I am not saying that he can't.  I am just that he will have to.  Jackson is an incredible athlete.  He is certainly one of the best, if not the best, athletes on the field in most games.  It's just that I have seen these types of offenses go from explosive to not work very well.  This is a similar offense that was run in SF with Kaepernick.  Jackson runs it better and it has evolved some but still its similar.  That team fell apart after two years.

 

Re: can’t read a defense at all:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2863553-what-nfl-defenses-must-do-to-try-to-stop-lamar-jackson-and-the-ravens

 

One coach said he's seen defenses throw all kinds of mixed coverages at Jackson, and assorted blitz packages, and Jackson "eats them for breakfast."

"He's an exceptionally quick thinker," the coach said.

This is a huge reason Jackson has been so successful throwing the football. It's not just the accuracy; it's digesting how the defense is attacking him and acting accordingly.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

One coach said he's seen defenses throw all kinds of mixed coverages at Jackson, and assorted blitz packages, and Jackson "eats them for breakfast."

only 1 coach???

 

?

[RavensFan]

Just now, SlimShady'sGhost said:

only 1 coach???

 

?

 

Maybe read the article?