Week 14 - Ravens (-6.5) at Bills Over/Under 44

[Magox]

I don’t think the Bills should over commit to the run.  Just don’t give up the intermediate to deep pass.  
 

When Ravens are hitting on all cylinders they get those 20-40 yard passes for TD’s because the defense is unbalanced by their rush attack.  
 

just try to not overcommit to the run, they will give up their share of rushing yards but if they can limit the pass they can hold below 24 points.

[Rico]

Sorry if already mentioned, but congrats to jw, his AP article made it to Drudge (2nd column), Showdown of Next Gen QBs.

 

 

https://drudgereport.com/?responsive=off

 

Mod edit: people say it's gone now, here's the direct link to Wawrow's AP article

https://apnews.com/f333c12f27773587f0c76a3b31bfb045

 

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Home field, mini bye allowed extra prep time, they are healthy, and I think it’s a game where they match up well. I also think they will be extra motivated to prove something since everyone assumes they will lose and are a home dog by a relatively large margin. Beware the home dog!

 

I hope you're right, but the 2019 Bills have been a road team so far, so that homefield thing doesn't fill me with confidence.

 

Buffalo hasn't been playing as well at home this year as on the road. Home losses to NE and Philly are obvious, but even our victories over terrible opponents like Cincy and Miami were pretty mediocre to poor on Buffalo's part for large chunks of the game--wasn't it one of those 2 games that we were booed at going into halftime? The Denver game was fantastic and our only real solid home win. Buffalo's best wins as far as playing well as a whole team were on the road at Dallas, at Miami and at the Giants.

 

Even Allen has pretty wildly different home stats vs road stats:

 

Home-- 57.4% completion %, 6.6 YPA, 10 TDs (8 passing, 2 rushing), 6 turnovers (5 INTS, 1 fumble lost), 80.8 QB Rating 

 

Away--65% completion %, 7.5 YPA, 14 TDs (8 passing, 6 rushing), 5 turnovers (3 INTs, 2 fumbles lost), 94.7 QB Rating

 

The team has seemed tight at home with a crowd behind them. So far they seem to thrive off the adversity a road game brings. Now, I think given the team we're playing this week there's adversity no matter where we play. But I don't think our team will benefit from the home field unless Lamar and the Ravens are truly rattled. And from what I understand the game isn't even sold out yet(?), so I'm also worried about how many Ravens fans are in the stands.

Edited December 6, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Some Baltimore press coverage.  Enjoy!

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-ravens-questions-week14-20191205-hrkx3ty26bb35mujwqncum5obu-story.html#nt=related-content

 

My favorite tidbit

Q: Lamar Jackson is clearly the best QB from the 2018 draft. Is Josh Allen the second best?

(most say yes, but then there's this guy):

Schmuck: It sure looks like that at the moment, but it’s probably because he has the most complete team built around him. If Baker Mayfield continues to mature and figures out how to stop completing so many passes to linebackers, he might end up doing more over the long haul.

 

It just shows how revisionist the press is.  With Kareem Hunt, Chubb, Odell Beckham, and Jarvis Landry not to mention the defense, the Browns were gonna kick butt and name names, and who did the Bills have?  Over-the-hill Frank Gore and that kid - Bevin?  Devin?  Now we "have the most complete team"  ?

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Some Baltimore press coverage.  Enjoy!

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-ravens-questions-week14-20191205-hrkx3ty26bb35mujwqncum5obu-story.html#nt=related-content

 

My favorite tidbit

Q: Lamar Jackson is clearly the best QB from the 2018 draft. Is Josh Allen the second best?

(most say yes, but then there's this guy):

Schmuck: It sure looks like that at the moment, but it’s probably because he has the most complete team built around him. If Baker Mayfield continues to mature and figures out how to stop completing so many passes to linebackers, he might end up doing more over the long haul.

 

It just shows how revisionist the press is.  With Kareem Hunt, Chubb, Odell Beckham, and Jarvis Landry not to mention the defense, the Browns were gonna kick butt and name names, and who did the Bills have?  Over-the-hill Frank Gore and that kid - Bevin?  Devin?  Now we "have the most complete team"  ?

I mean we kind of do have the second best situation now. Cleveland has the talent but not the Coaching situation. The Jets are just a mess with holes on the roster and a failed Dolphins HC. Lamar clearly had the best situation though.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I hope you're right, but the 2019 Bills have been a road team so far, so that homefield thing doesn't fill me with confidence.

 

Buffalo hasn't been playing as well at home this year as on the road. Home losses to NE and Philly are obvious, but even our victories over terrible opponents like Cincy and Miami were pretty mediocre to poor on Buffalo's part for large chunks of the game--wasn't it one of those 2 games that we were booed at going into halftime? The Denver game was fantastic and our only real solid home win. Buffalo's best wins as far as playing well as a whole team were on the road at Dallas, at Miami and at the Giants.

 

Even Allen has pretty wildly different home stats vs road stats:

 

Home-- 57.4% completion %, 6.6 YPA, 10 TDs (8 passing, 2 rushing), 6 turnovers (5 INTS, 1 fumble lost), 80.8 QB Rating 

 

Away--65% completion %, 7.5 YPA, 14 TDs (8 passing, 6 rushing), 5 turnovers (3 INTs, 2 fumbles lost), 94.7 QB Rating

 

The team has seemed tight at home with a crowd behind them. So far they seem to thrive off the adversity a road game brings. Now, I think given the team we're playing this week there's adversity no matter where we play. But I don't think our team will benefit from the home field unless Lamar and the Ravens are truly rattled. And from what I understand the game isn't even sold out yet(?), so I'm also worried about how many Ravens fans are in the stands.

 

Concern about how much of a home game this will be for the Poe-Birds is legit.

 

Going into Allen's "wildly different" stats is basically massaging the fact that our two worst games, both losses, to the Pats and to the Iggles, both happened at home.

If you take out the Pats and Eagles game, the completion percentage is the same (I calculate 63% for both, by summing passes completed and attempted then taking the ratio).

3 of Allen's 6 home INT and 1 TO came in those 2 games.

 

So while it's true "not playing as well at home as on the road", I think it's who we played, not where we played, that's the factor.

 

The Ravens will be a tough test, and I'm hoping the Bills will continue their recent trend of play fierce, play fearless.   I really just want to see a good hard-fought game, not a beat-down like we just witnessed on Thurs nite football.

 

Unless, of course, it's the Bills doing the beating.  Which despite my fan-love seems unlikely.

 

The Bills have no reason to play tight.  They aren't expected to win this as they were all the other home games but NE.  The Ravens have been kicking everybody's Butt of recent weeks.  So play fierce, play fearless, and play freely.

 

11 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I mean we kind of do have the second best situation now. Cleveland has the talent but not the Coaching situation. The Jets are just a mess with holes on the roster and a failed Dolphins HC. Lamar clearly had the best situation though.

 

We clearly do have the better team around Josh vs the Browns or Jets or Dolphins.  My point was just that when analysts were looking at the Bills pre-season they weren't saying "Allen will look good because he has the best team around him and they'll make him look good".  They were all over what great teams the Browns and Jets were gonna be and how Buffalo lacked star players and hadn't done enough.  Now that we're winning, they can't give Allen credit for helping us be a better team.

[Warcodered]

 

 

 

A Kyle Williams sighting as well.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Warcodered

[BigDingus]

I'm sorry, this is a game I just don't think this team will win.

The Ravens front are big, strong dudes that push people around (often being referred to as "bullies"), and our strength has not been in our defensive front & stopping the run.

Our LB's are good sideline to sideline, but Edmunds doesn't explode through the gaps & stuff the run, and Milano is a bit too small. You're more likely to see them making tackles in the secondary after Ingram or Jackson already broke through. It's also why our safeties have so many tackles.

If we can at least wrap up & not allow them a ton of yards after contact, we can mitigate the damage. But racking up a ton of near sacks or blowing potential tackles for loss will kill us. 

The Ravens offense has shown they can score at will & are a multidimensional threat. The Bills can win games where they control time of possession, field position and don't turn the ball over, and aren't playing from behind for long.

But there's no way we can keep pace putting up points if Baltimore keeps scoring like crazy. I desperately want us to win this game, but ultimately I'm hoping we just don't get embarrassed. 

31-17 Ravens is my guess

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F*** it! 

Optimist in me is saying 23-17 Bills! 
 

We deserve this dammit!

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

More optimism from the local and national reporters...Jay Skurski (Buffalo News) picked us to win 24-21 this morning.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/12/05/buffalo-bills-nfl-scouting-report-devin-singletary-baltimore-ravens-skurski-analysis-news-2019/

 

A few thoughts:

 

1) A lot has been said this week about defenses not having 'cracked the code' on the Ravens' offense yet. Baltimore has played a tough schedule, but I'd argue that no team has the combination of an elite secondary, strong defensive coaching, and versatile/athletic LBs like Edmunds and Milano like our Bills do.

 

Edmunds, with his speed and length, could be a great equalizer if he brings his A game and both LBs have the ability to cover the multiple TE looks that the Ravens depend on. I'd like to see us play 5 down lineman (Hughes-Oliver-Star-Phillips-Lawson with Lorax rotating in on passing downs) and bring Poyer down into the box to help vs the run. Fade Hyde towards Hollywood Brown's side of the field to protect against double moves and possibly give Siran Neal more snaps at slot given his strength vs the run.

 

2) Baltimore's weakness on defense is runs off tackle. Seems like a good week to bring back the jet sweeps/misdirection plays and force their guys to make plays in space. The more touches for Singletary and to some degree McKenzie/Foster in the run game, the better for this match up. 

 

3) If there was ever a game where Roberts was going to break one...we're due!

 

Happy Friday and Go Bills!

[njbuff]

Weird thing is........... if the Bills lose, I don’t know how I should feel.

 

I can’t remember that last time I felt so wishy-washy about a Bills potential loss.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Some Baltimore press coverage.  Enjoy!

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-ravens-questions-week14-20191205-hrkx3ty26bb35mujwqncum5obu-story.html#nt=related-content

 

My favorite tidbit

Q: Lamar Jackson is clearly the best QB from the 2018 draft. Is Josh Allen the second best?

(most say yes, but then there's this guy):

Schmuck: It sure looks like that at the moment, but it’s probably because he has the most complete team built around him. If Baker Mayfield continues to mature and figures out how to stop completing so many passes to linebackers, he might end up doing more over the long haul.

 

It just shows how revisionist the press is.  With Kareem Hunt, Chubb, Odell Beckham, and Jarvis Landry not to mention the defense, the Browns were gonna kick butt and name names, and who did the Bills have?  Over-the-hill Frank Gore and that kid - Bevin?  Devin?  Now we "have the most complete team"  ?

 

LOL  I thought you did a little creative editing 

Peter Schmuck, columnist

36 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Weird thing is........... if the Bills lose, I don’t know how I should feel.

 

I can’t remember that last time I felt so wishy-washy about a Bills potential loss.

 

IF the Bills WIN   Cry with happiness

IF the Bills lose    Crying is allowed 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

https://sports.yahoo.com/2019-nfl-sundays-week-14-previews-tv-networks-and-kickoff-times-203601848.html

 

Second Video down 

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBS

Interesting comments around the 1:00 mark 

The perfect storm for the Ravens to lose ... 

 

2:00 mark Upset predicted 

ALSO    Let the video run for more Bills stuff. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001084167/article/qb-index-week-14-lamar-jackson-still-no-1-josh-allen-surging

 

QB Index, Week 14: Lamar Jackson still No. 1; Josh Allen surging

Ryan Tannehill#9 ????  LMAO literally 

 

#13 Josh Allen 

 2019 stats: 12 games | 61.5 pct | 2,591 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 16 pass TD | 8 INT | 430 rush yds | 8 rush TD | 3 fumbles los

Bhanpuri: Allen has jumped up 14 spots on this list since Week 2 thanks in part to several superb performances like the one he produced on Thanksgiving Day. We've received a lot of heat lately from Bills Mafia for our, perhaps, overly cautious wait-and-see approach to elevating the second-year pro higher in our rankings. To that, I point to the first five weeks of the season, when Allen's play morphed from one week to the next as it often did in Year 1.

Week 1 (passer rating): 71.2
Week 2: 101.1
Week 3: 81.1
Week 4: 24.0
Week 5: 98.3

So forgive us for wanting a bit more consistency from the signal-caller. Well, we asked for it and Josh Allen gave it to us. After last Thursday's signature win at Dallas, continuing a magnetic seven-week run since Buffalo's Week 6 bye, the rocket-armed passer has certainly offered up enough evidence to warrant a massive jump up the rankings. Although his accuracy still has room for improvement, his decision-making has been markedly better, as evidenced by his 16 total touchdowns (11 passing, 5 rushing) against just two giveaways in his last seven games. What better way to vault into the top 10 than to outduel the guy sitting at No. 1? Sunday should be fun.

[PaattMaann]

15 hours ago, Logic said:

Nice post. You've already brought more to the table than the other Ravens fans who found their way over here this week. Hopefully you're back to talk ball on Monday if the Bills somehow find a way to win.

As Whatdrought mentioned, even if the Bills lose, the silver lining for us Bills fans will be that it hopefully means the path to the Super Bowl goes through Baltimore rather than Foxborough. I would honestly sacrifice this win if it meant ultimately keeping the Patriots out of their fourth straight Super Bowl.

One more thing: I expect that somehow, by hook or by crook, there will be a Ravens-Pats re-match in the playoffs. If that happens, I'd be very nervous as a Ravens fan. It's one thing to beat Belichick once in a given season. Doing it twice? Not so easy.

Here's to a good game Sunday with no injuries.

 

I understand your sentiment. But WHY on Earth would you want to sacrifice this win and have the AFC run through Baltimore when WE WIN THE GAME and then we control the AFC running through ORCHARD PARK!????

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

5 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I'm sorry, this is a game I just don't think this team will win.

The Ravens front are big, strong dudes that push people around (often being referred to as "bullies"), and our strength has not been in our defensive front & stopping the run.

Our LB's are good sideline to sideline, but Edmunds doesn't explode through the gaps & stuff the run, and Milano is a bit too small. You're more likely to see them making tackles in the secondary after Ingram or Jackson already broke through. It's also why our safeties have so many tackles.

If we can at least wrap up & not allow them a ton of yards after contact, we can mitigate the damage. But racking up a ton of near sacks or blowing potential tackles for loss will kill us. 

The Ravens offense has shown they can score at will & are a multidimensional threat. The Bills can win games where they control time of possession, field position and don't turn the ball over, and aren't playing from behind for long.

But there's no way we can keep pace putting up points if Baltimore keeps scoring like crazy. I desperately want us to win this game, but ultimately I'm hoping we just don't get embarrassed. 

31-17 Ravens is my guess

*
*
*
*
F*** it! 

Optimist in me is saying 23-17 Bills! 
 

We deserve this dammit!

The best thing is we’re not supposed to win this game. I’m as optimistic as anyone but I am not sure  our team is there yet..  This will be a good test  to show up show up see where we stand against possibly the superbowl contender. I think we do show up and not be The rams who got embarrassed, I think we keep it within ten points.
 

Ball control, long sustaining drives, we don’t want a shootout. Keep Lamar off the field as much as possible. No shame in a loss this week to a team that’s beat the pats, 49ers

 

i just want us to prove we belong in the conversation. 
 

Now the optimist in me says a Win and suddenly you just blew the lid off the nfl. Think of the coverage we would get and a chance to realistically be number one seed.  

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Rico said:

Sorry if already mentioned, but congrats to jw, his AP article made it to Drudge (2nd column), Showdown of Next Gen QBs.

https://drudgereport.com/?responsive=off

 

Or for those who don't want to "drudge" through that horribly formatted page, here is the actual link to it:

https://apnews.com/f333c12f27773587f0c76a3b31bfb045

 

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

LOL  I thought you did a little creative editing 

Peter Schmuck, columnist

 

Nope, that's really his name.  Go figgur...

[whatdrought]

5 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

More optimism from the local and national reporters...Jay Skurski (Buffalo News) picked us to win 24-21 this morning.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/12/05/buffalo-bills-nfl-scouting-report-devin-singletary-baltimore-ravens-skurski-analysis-news-2019/

 

A few thoughts:

 

1) A lot has been said this week about defenses not having 'cracked the code' on the Ravens' offense yet. Baltimore has played a tough schedule, but I'd argue that no team has the combination of an elite secondary, strong defensive coaching, and versatile/athletic LBs like Edmunds and Milano like our Bills do.

 

Edmunds, with his speed and length, could be a great equalizer if he brings his A game and both LBs have the ability to cover the multiple TE looks that the Ravens depend on. I'd like to see us play 5 down lineman (Hughes-Oliver-Star-Phillips-Lawson with Lorax rotating in on passing downs) and bring Poyer down into the box to help vs the run. Fade Hyde towards Hollywood Brown's side of the field to protect against double moves and possibly give Siran Neal more snaps at slot given his strength vs the run.

 

2) Baltimore's weakness on defense is runs off tackle. Seems like a good week to bring back the jet sweeps/misdirection plays and force their guys to make plays in space. The more touches for Singletary and to some degree McKenzie/Foster in the run game, the better for this match up. 

 

3) If there was ever a game where Roberts was going to break one...we're due!

 

Happy Friday and Go Bills!

 

It's an interesting point... The Patriots Defense is starting to look somewhat overrated, and their strength is their secondary, but they have a slow front-7 - especially LB's. The 49ers have a good Dline, but aside from Warner, their back half is not as impressive. The Rams have a good front line and little at LB. The Seahawks aren't anything to write home about. We might be one of their bigger tests.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

[SCBills]

4 hours ago, njbuff said:

Weird thing is........... if the Bills lose, I don’t know how I should feel.

 

I can’t remember that last time I felt so wishy-washy about a Bills potential loss.

It’s such a weird game because nobody does what Baltimore does.   If we can’t stop it, oh well, nobody else has figured it out yet either and we won’t face anyone who does this unless we see them again in the Playoffs.  
 

That being said, it’s a huge game given the KC/NE matchup immediately after, along with the tough upcoming schedule of two primetime road games against good teams.  
 

Our defense has shown it can shut down passing offenses, while seemingly rebounding from the 3 game skid where they had run issues.  If they can shut down Baltimore to some extent, and our offense continues it’s upward trajectory against a very good Ravens defense....we can legitimately talk about this team as a Super Bowl contender. 
 

Getting a win puts divisional pressure on NE against KC that they haven’t felt in over a decade. 

[MILFHUNTER#518]

12 hours ago, Rico said:

Sorry if already mentioned, but congrats to jw, his AP article made it to Drudge (2nd column), Showdown of Next Gen QBs.

 

 

https://drudgereport.com/?responsive=off

 

I dont see it...