Week 14 - Ravens (-6.5) at Bills Over/Under 44

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

 

Maybe read the article?

It was a joke.  
 

sheesh. 
No one is unstoppable 

 

 

[Scott7975]

20 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

 

Re: can’t read a defense at all:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2863553-what-nfl-defenses-must-do-to-try-to-stop-lamar-jackson-and-the-ravens

 

One coach said he's seen defenses throw all kinds of mixed coverages at Jackson, and assorted blitz packages, and Jackson "eats them for breakfast."

"He's an exceptionally quick thinker," the coach said.

This is a huge reason Jackson has been so successful throwing the football. It's not just the accuracy; it's digesting how the defense is attacking him and acting accordingly.

 

 

Sorry but I had to stop at "before Jackson obliterated the best defense in football with 163 yards..."  That is their average.

 

He still is in a system of 1 read/half field reads.  Which is fine for now.

 

Here is the passing chart of said obliteration....

 

 

Almost 60% of his pass completions are inside 5 yards from the los  Most of those at or behind the los.  This is the Lamar media frenzy.... Obliterated the Pats.  I am sorry.  This is not meant to be a knock on Lamar but the dude could take a dump on the field and the media would find a way to praise it.

Edited December 8, 2019 by Scott7975

[RavensFan]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

It was a joke.  
 

sheesh. 
No one is unstoppable 

 

 

 

Please excuse my misinterpretation. You’re right, it’s only a matter of how and when.

[thebandit27]

19 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

 

Maybe read the article?

 

Maybe tone it down a touch. The Ravens are good; they've hardly proven themselves unbeatable in all circumstances.

[Rampage]

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Maybe tone it down a touch. The Ravens are good; they've hardly proven themselves unbeatable in all circumstances.

They’ve beaten a lot better competition than we have that’s for sure.

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Rampage said:

They’ve beaten a lot better competition than we have that’s for sure.

 

Guess that means something regarding today's game? 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

This is not to say that Jackson wont grow overtime, but he makes a lot of one read throws.  I don't believe he can really read a defense at all.  The scheme makes it easy for him.  Please don't take that as a knock.  For your team, this year, that works and he does a fantastic job running it.  I just don't think it's sustainable long term.  What might work great this season, because its new, might not work so well next season when DC's have a long time to watch tape and come up with an answer.    I also don't think Jackson can make every throw on the field.  

 

Eventually his athleticism will wear down and DC's will catch up to the scheme.  He will have to evolve.  I am not saying that he can't.  I am just that he will have to.  Jackson is an incredible athlete.  He is certainly one of the best, if not the best, athletes on the field in most games.  It's just that I have seen these types of offenses go from explosive to not work very well.  This is a similar offense that was run in SF with Kaepernick.  Jackson runs it better and it has evolved some but still its similar.  That team fell apart after two years.

 

This bolded part is not true, but it is true that the reads he is making on every play are usually different than conventional "what is the pass coverage downfield, and what does that mean for who might be open and where do I throw?"     When he has to stay in the pocket and progress in his downfield reads, he does look more like a 2nd year developing QB.

 

At this point, Jackson can't make every throw on the field.  Neither can Allen, though the throws they struggle with differ.  Both of them showed tremendous improvement in technique and accuracy during the off-season, and both seem very driven to continue to improve, so I expect to see further improvement next season.

[Scott7975]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This bolded part is not true, but it is true that the reads he is making on every play are usually different than conventional "what is the pass coverage downfield, and what does that mean for who might be open and where do I throw?"     When he has to stay in the pocket and progress in his downfield reads, he does look more like a 2nd year developing QB.

 

At this point, Jackson can't make every throw on the field.  Neither can Allen, though the throws they struggle with differ.  Both of them showed tremendous improvement in technique and accuracy during the off-season, and both seem very driven to continue to improve, so I expect to see further improvement next season.

 

Ok let me restate this.  Jackson doesn't have to read coverage on the defense.  All he has to read is what package the defense has on the field and his offensive system already  has a pre-determined answer.  From there its just execution.  From an option standpoint all Lamar has to read is one guy on the defense.

 

My statement is more about... if it becomes time to have to read coverages post snap, can the guy read the whole field?  I'm not sure that he can.  What I do know is that at this point... he doesn't have to.  If he hasn't been learning how then a team is going to eventually figure out how to counter this type of offense and that will put him in a difficult situation.

 

This is why no one could stop Kaepernick until they could.  Kaepernick wasn't good enough to adjust.  Eventually this will happen to Lamar.  Will he be able to adjust is the question.  This is why I prefer the way the coaches are bringing Allen along as opposed to the way Lamar is being brought along.  Allen is learning to play QB.  Lamar is learning to play the system.  Lamar is doing a far better job than Kaep because he is a freak of an athlete.

Edited December 8, 2019 by Scott7975

[RavensFan]

55 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Maybe tone it down a touch. The Ravens are good; they've hardly proven themselves unbeatable in all circumstances.

 

No one has said they're unbeatable (and they're obviously not). But "he can't read defenses at all" is pretty far over the top, wouldn't you say?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, RavensFan said:

 

Re: can’t read a defense at all:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2863553-what-nfl-defenses-must-do-to-try-to-stop-lamar-jackson-and-the-ravens

 

One coach said he's seen defenses throw all kinds of mixed coverages at Jackson, and assorted blitz packages, and Jackson "eats them for breakfast."

"He's an exceptionally quick thinker," the coach said.

This is a huge reason Jackson has been so successful throwing the football. It's not just the accuracy; it's digesting how the defense is attacking him and acting accordingly.

 

 

The people who say Jackson can't read a defense at all are clearly mistaken.  But the reason that Jackson usually eats "blitz packages for breakfast" is that the offense he's running and his own extraordinary chops as a runner allows him to escape them and run himself, or pass the ball to a TE who is difficult to cover.  Mixed coverages and blitz packages are designed to confound QBs who have to stand in the pocket and figure out where to throw. 

 

Around here, we have a long time opinion of Bleacher Report around here as clickbait that is not carefully researched.  They have improved recently and added some good writers, but still:  "There's not another quarterback in the league like this," Belichick said of Jackson before the Ravens handed the Patriots their only loss of the season, 37-20, earlier this month—before Jackson obliterated the best defense in football for 163 yards and a touchdown passing and 61 yards and two more TDs rushing."

 

Fact: the New England Patriots still own the best D in the NFL on points and #2 on yards.  And 163 yds passing is precisely the AVERAGE passing yardage they give up (1962 yds total/12 games = 163.5 ypg average).  Nor is 61 yds rushing from Jackson a particularly "obliterating" performance - Jackson has been AVERAGING 81 ypg, so containing him to 61 yds is 20 ypg lower than his per-game average.

 

Overall, the Ravens ran for 210 rush yards that game, which IS significantly more than the 94.5 ypg average NE gives up.  That suggests to me that Belicheck made a strategic decision to limit Jackson on the ground, and by doing so created an opportunity that Ingrams was able to exploit. 

 

But the real difference in that game was the Ravens defense vs the Patriots offense.  The Ravens forced NWE to punt 3 or 4 and out on their first 3 possessions.  The Ravens had a 70 yd fumble return for a TD, NE had a fumble that resulted in a FG (and I think a punt, though the box score is kind of opaque on what happened and I don't remember).  Brady could not get anything going on offense.

 

The thing about the Ravens is that they play very well on all 3 phases of the game, they don't make many mistakes, they shut down the other team successfully when they do, and they take good advantage of any mistakes other teams do make.

 

I just get a bit eye rolling about all the hyperbole around Baltimore's offense.  I guess it's "equal and opposite reaction" to the unjustified criticism (as above), but I've seen unstoppable offenses before - including the K-Gun, the "Greatest Show on Turf" and the 2012-2013 Roman offense in SF, and eventually they all get stopped. 

 

I'm not saying the Bills are the team to do it today - I think the Bills have weaknesses on ST and perform unevenly on offense and defense - but if we're "on" our game it should be a strong game.

 

[RavensFan]

31 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Ok let me restate this.  Jackson doesn't have to read coverage on the defense.  All he has to read is what package the defense has on the field and his offensive system already  has a pre-determined answer.  From there its just execution.

 

Based on 12 games of observation, I think you underestimate his responsibilities, but whatever.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

 

No one has said they're unbeatable (and they're obviously not). But "he can't read defenses at all" is pretty far over the top, wouldn't you say?

 

If that was the extent of the statement, yes. But it wasn't. He was saying that Jackson is operating in a simplified offense where he's reading defensive keys more than identifying coverages etc...and he's right.

 

But I was more referring to the seemingly increasing bravado in your posts--vis a vis "good luck confusing this...UDFA center...that easily dispatched of Aaron Donald blindfolded". 

[RavensFan]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This is the Lamar media frenzy.... Obliterated the Pats.  I am sorry.  This is not meant to be a knock on Lamar but the dude could take a dump on the field and the media would find a way to praise it.

 

Funny. Also true. The Pats game was a good performance against a top defense, nothing more.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

 

Funny. Also true. The Pats game was a good performance against a top defense, nothing more.

 

It was a good performance, but I would put it that the Pats game was a top-notch Defensive performance against the Pats offense.  The Ravens offense put up 10 more points, which is good, but not an offensive beat-down. 

 

I'd say more about that Pats offense but we have to play them in 2 weeks and I don't want to put any bad Karma out there that might bite us

[RavensFan]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

But I was more referring to the seemingly increasing bravado in your posts--vis a vis "good luck confusing this...UDFA center...that easily dispatched of Aaron Donald blindfolded". 

 

Nothing like that was said either. It was an honest response to the suggestion that he could be rattled by a few blitzes, pointing out that he's had a pretty intense baptism.

 

Enjoy the game.

[MDH]

9 hours ago, DarkBird said:

It's funny, every other team has said the same thing until they play him.  As far as passing, you obviously have not watched the Ravens games, looked at his metrics, listened to experts, or looked at the quality of opponents he's beaten badly.  He's the leading candidate for MVP, had 2 perfect passer ratings, 25 passing touchdowns and only 5 ints.  He has done this on HALF the offensive drives that Russell Wilson has had.  That's because the offense is the most prolific since the 2007 Patriots.

 

research a bit before trying that old narrative that Jackson can't throw and isn't a great QB.

 

I compare Lamar as a passer to an elite wrestler’s standup in MMA. A great wrestler can compete with, and even get the better of, a great striker on their feet because the striker is so worried about the takedown. He keeps his hands low and is quick to react to a shot but slow to react to a punch.

 

That’s how Jackson is an efficient passer. Teams are so worried about the run game that they are willing to give Jackson parts of the field and if he can beat them, so be it. To Lamar’s credit he has beaten them, and regularly. Yet, if he had to drop straight back with no RPO or play action, or teams stacking the box, how successful would he be? Personally, I think he’d struggle but we will never know because he doesn’t have to do that as he’s the greatest runner we’ve ever seen at the QB position running the greatest running offense the NFL has seen in...maybe forever.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, RavensFan said:

 

Nothing like that was said either. It was an honest response to the suggestion that he could be rattled by a few blitzes, pointing out that he's had a pretty intense baptism.

 

Enjoy the game.

 

Surviving one game game does not equate to "you're not going to rattle this battle-tested animal"...just seems a bit overconfident. 

 

Nevertheless I'm sure I will enjoy the game; nothing like December football ?

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

35 minutes ago, RavensFan said:

 

Based on 12 games of observation, I think you underestimate his responsibilities, but whatever.

YAWN 

 

You are on a Bills board and not a Ravens board.  
 

Sure you’ll find some to agree with you but we won’t kowtow to Fantasy stats. 
 

[Say When...]

22 hours ago, Logic said:

I guess I was speaking more of the Bills being susceptible to being gashed on individual runs. I wasn't necessarily talking about the entire course of a game. Sometimes, the Bills defense is prone to parting like the red sea and allowing HUGE allies up the middle.

This happened in the Eagles and Browns games, and it happened most recently against the Cowboys. Luckily, the Cowboys went away from the run in the second half for some reason. Ezekiel Elliott had collected 70 rushing yards in the first half alone. 

 

i'm glad you mentioned this and i've seen the same comments from others so i went and looked at the carry, by carry log for Zeke in that game, you're welcome to go look and interpret for yourself, sorry, i'm to lazy to cut, paste and format as you have to sort because he did have several receptions.

 

here's my interpretation:

• 12-71 yards rushing
• 3 runs totaled 55 yards - 2 were in the 1st quarter (30 and 12 yarders) and 1 was the beginning of the 3rd (13)
• meaning the remaining 9 netted 16 yards - essentially a 1.8ypc
• he had 9 carries in the 1st half and 3 in the second - again they were down 2 scores by the time they got the ball in the 3rd.
• Zeke also played 88% of the offensive snaps, i read someone here stating he was pulled, that's incorrect.

so, as a head coach, we start getting down, by 2 scores and outside of the 1st 2 series my RB averages ~3ypc, then yes i'm going to go with a different offensive plan

 

so i don't think it was inexplicable that they went away from Zeke rushing, outside of 3 'chunk' runs he was below average, 2 of which were by middle 1st Q.

 

BTW - not trying to rub your nose in it, i had read all the others comment on "can't understand why they went away from Zeke" and i was wondering if i saw a different game than everyone else so i went and researched, so i'm comfortable in my assessment, especially if we consider a very desperate Garrett.

 

my source - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201911280dal.htm#all_pbp

 

[Jaydee414]

You guys just saw what I meant about Edmunds taking one step up and Jackson gets the corner