Juice_32 Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 6 hours ago, Process said: That browns loss stings so bad right now And you just knew it immediately at the end of that game. It was huge. BUT...I also think part of the reason we have taken it to the next level on offense is because of that loss. Either way, it’s December, we are relevant and we’ve got a huge test coming up.
Zerovoltz Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 I've been playing around with Playoff machine....there is a scenario where Buffalo wins the EAST, and ends up the 2 or 3 seed. Buffalo loses to Baltimore. Buf Beats New England. NE Loses to KC and on other team....I have them losing to Miami in this case...If KC wins out in that scenario. Buffalo is the 3 seed, and NE is the 5. Or same scenario and KC loses once. Buffalo is the 2, KC is the 3. Still so many possibilities. I've mostly been doing KC....and so with that in Mind, KC can still get the 1 seed if KC wins out. Baltimore loses twice. And New England loses Twice (including KC head to head next week) That isn't very likely...but would be a little closer with a Buffalo win VS Balt. KC does have decent path to the 2. KC wins out. (KC @NE, Home VS OAK, DEN, CHARGERS) And Buffalo beats NE but loses one other game.....doesn't matter wich one....or NE simply loses to KC and one other game, along with ANY scenario where the Bills lose one other game. Still very very muddy waters. Very exciting though. 1
r00tabaga Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: I've been playing around with Playoff machine....there is a scenario where Buffalo wins the EAST, and ends up the 2 or 3 seed. Buffalo loses to Baltimore. Buf Beats New England. NE Loses to KC and on other team....I have them losing to Miami in this case...If KC wins out in that scenario. Buffalo is the 3 seed, and NE is the 5. Or same scenario and KC loses once. Buffalo is the 2, KC is the 3. Still so many possibilities. I've mostly been doing KC....and so with that in Mind, KC can still get the 1 seed if KC wins out. Baltimore loses twice. And New England loses Twice (including KC head to head next week) That isn't very likely...but would be a little closer with a Buffalo win VS Balt. KC does have decent path to the 2. KC wins out. (KC @NE, Home VS OAK, DEN, CHARGERS) And Buffalo beats NE but loses one other game.....doesn't matter wich one....or NE simply loses to KC and one other game, along with ANY scenario where the Bills lose one other game. Still very very muddy waters. Very exciting though. I thought KC was undefeated. Wouldn’t that make them the number 1 seed? No??? 1
Mat68 Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 The Patriots offense cant score 20 points. I can see them losing out. I dont think they will though. The Baltimore game is more concerning than the Patriots. Buffalo gets a W vs Baltimore I think they beat NE and run the table. 1
Casey D Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 People really need to tap on the brakes here. After Cleveland it was all gloom and doom, and now with a win over Dallas people are getting too high. This team is a work in progress, and people should temper their expectations. The Dallas win was great, but Dallas is not a great team right now. There is a decent chance the Ravens make us look bad, and people should not be going bat-***** crazy when they lose. At this point if they beat just the Jets they should get into the dance, and that would make this an excellent season. Anymore than that is a bonus this year. It's OK to dream about more, but don't get too upset if all these dreams don't come true this year. 1
Zerovoltz Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, r00tabaga said: I thought KC was undefeated. Wouldn’t that make them the number 1 seed? No??? ......in most years yes....but not this one (Man, I need some good crow recipes because you all are making me eat ALOT of it. ugh.) 1
Gordio Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said: Agree on paper, but Bills history there is brutal other than Frank Reich winning a playoff game. Yeah that was ages ago, unless Rod Woodson & Greg Lloyd are suiting up for this game, I like the Bills chances.
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 The New York Times model is the best, in my opinion. Lose out: 54% chance of making playoffs (this is probably what Cynthia Frelund will have, LOL) Lose out until beating Jets: 96% chance of making playoffs Win out: 56% chance of #1 seed Win out and Chiefs beat Patriots: #1 seed
Ayjent Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 8 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said: 8 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said: You are incorrect, division record is higher priority than common opponents. https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures To Break A Tie Within A Division If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined. Two Clubs Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Assuming we beat Pats in Week 16 - Push Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Assuming we beat Pats and Jets, and Pats beat Phins - Push Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Eagles -1, Browns -1; Assume we beat Ravens +1; Would need Bengals to beat Pats to Push Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Strength of victory. Strength of schedule. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. Best net points in common games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss Tie Breakers definitely favor Pats if they have the same record as Bills - unless they drop one to the Bengals or Dolphins. I just don't see that happening. I do think it is possible that they lose to both the Chiefs and Bills. But that means the Bills would have to run the table to win the division. A tough task, but who knows.
ProcessTruster Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 Lets just go compete for #10. The process is working. They have a solid locker room full of guys working for each other, solid coaches and front office. What comes will come, but we are seeing the competitiveness and fight that the McBeane's process of sourcing the right kind of players brings. Eg. sitting Singletary for 3-4 weeks (may have cost them a game) was brilliant and is now paying off with 100% play. Sitting Oliver for a couple weeks as he hit the "rookie wall" was brilliant. Grabbing Jordan Phillips and Liguet to push Star was brilliant. Taking one game at a time, love how Josh had little to say other than "getting #9". No hoopla necessary. And they have $80m cap space to sign their own stars who will carry the culture to the next draft class. Love it. It's understated and quiet, but gotta love the process. Looking at 10-11 wins off a 6-10 last year.
Sig1Hunter Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 Sure is a lot of optimism around these parts! I like it! Let’s just not jump off of a cliff if/when the Bills lose one or two of the last 4. Mmmmkay? 1
Reed83HOF Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 10 hours ago, jimmy10 said: Can I just say, I love all us Bills fans doing playoff math together. To be fair, it is new math for us - it is usually "In-the-hunt" math which is different 10 hours ago, SDS said: no worries. I thought 4 and 3 were flipped until about 20 minutes ago. We all did - I mean honestly, it's not like we needed to know this or even look at it over the past 20-25 years
Scott7975 Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 10 hours ago, MJS said: There's a good chance that if we win the division, we also get the #1 seed. It will be a fun next few weeks. Wouldn't that just be crazy? All the talk about how we were the worst 8 win team in history and this could actually happen. 1
ganesh Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 4 hours ago, mattynh said: I don’t see it that way but I get why someone would say that. Sure they could have won that game but what about the games they could have lost? There are more of those. If they win the division they get a home game. And it could be without a bye. Although that seems highly unlikely. IF they win the division, they likely are going to get the #1 seed (at 13-3) with home field advantage. For us to go to 13-3, the Ravens will have 3 losses and lose the Head to Head battle.
Captain Hindsight Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 11 hours ago, Ggaenzle said: Wait so is it common opponents or divisional record? I'm not sure but can Pegula own both the Sabres and the Bills? 1
Scott7975 Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said: No the first tie breaker is division record, second tie breaker is common opponents. So it’s actually rather easy to understand if you know the rules or bother to take 5 seconds to look them up. Yes, as I said earlier... I read the two backwards when I read them. My apologies man.
bbb Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said: Yes, as I said earlier... I read the two backwards when I read them. My apologies man. Were you getting your info from Kevin Massare on twitter? What I don't understand that he keeps saying is that with the loss, the Pats clinched the tiebreaker (leaving out that it comes after division record)................But, I don't understand how a loss to Houston would clinch that tiebreaker. They're not even a common opponent - AND they lost!
Foxx Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 all i know is... we should not be afraid of anyone in the league at this point. we can play with any of them. NE is no exception, they are no longer what they were.
Reed83HOF Posted December 2, 2019 Author Posted December 2, 2019 31 minutes ago, ganesh said: IF they win the division, they likely are going to get the #1 seed (at 13-3) with home field advantage. For us to go to 13-3, the Ravens will have 3 losses and lose the Head to Head battle. I will f-ing die if this happens. I can't even imagine this
Scott7975 Posted December 2, 2019 Posted December 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, bbb said: Were you getting your info from Kevin Massare on twitter? What I don't understand that he keeps saying is that with the loss, the Pats clinched the tiebreaker (leaving out that it comes after division record)................But, I don't understand how a loss to Houston would clinch that tiebreaker. They're not even a common opponent - AND they lost! No, but that sounds messed up too. I read it from another thread around here and it made sense at the time.... or I remembered it wrong. I am getting old so that's highly possible. 1
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