ngbills Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 Most if not all are not saying you you need 300 yards at all cost. If your offense is playing well and dominating the game then great whether you throw for 100 or 400 yards. The point was discussed more in that the Bills offense has struggled at times AND Allen was not putting up the yards. That is not the be all end all but is a concern. Especially in some games when he is throwing 40-50 times. Luckily Daboll has seen the light as of late and realized Allen is not ready to be the 40-50 attempts for 300 yd QB and needs a more balanced approach to be successful. That is what many were clamoring for all along. Play to Allen strengths at this point in his career, which is best suited for a balanced attack resulting in him throwing for closer to 200 than 300 and ideally running for another 50 from Allen and 100 from our RB's. So both sides are right. No Allen does not need to throw for 300 yds to win. Yes Allen did fail to throw for 300 yds when he was being asked to do so. This offense is built around the run and a balanced attack, not 100% by design but also due to Allen's early career limitations.
billsfan1959 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, ngbills said: Most if not all are not saying you you need 300 yards at all cost. If your offense is playing well and dominating the game then great whether you throw for 100 or 400 yards. The point was discussed more in that the Bills offense has struggled at times AND Allen was not putting up the yards. That is not the be all end all but is a concern. Especially in some games when he is throwing 40-50 times. Luckily Daboll has seen the light as of late and realized Allen is not ready to be the 40-50 attempts for 300 yd QB and needs a more balanced approach to be successful. That is what many were clamoring for all along. Play to Allen strengths at this point in his career, which is best suited for a balanced attack resulting in him throwing for closer to 200 than 300 and ideally running for another 50 from Allen and 100 from our RB's. So both sides are right. No Allen does not need to throw for 300 yds to win. Yes Allen did fail to throw for 300 yds when he was being asked to do so. This offense is built around the run and a balanced attack, not 100% by design but also due to Allen's early career limitations. He has had one game this year where he attempted over 40 passes (41) and that was the Cleveland game. If you remember correctly, he led his team to the go ahead TD with 5:26 left in the game. The defense subsequently gave up an 82 yard TD drive, where they gave up plays of 13, 21, and 24 yards. Allen then, in the last 1:44 of the game, led the team from their own 25 to the Cleveland 35 for a shot at a winning FG. He didn't have a particularly good game and neither did the rest of the team. But, he didn't need 300 yds. He stepped up when they needed him to while the defense and the kicker did not. He has never been asked to throw for over 300 yds. He has been asked to lead his team to a go ahead score when behind and he has responded over and over.
billsfan1959 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said: Again why are expectations so low here????? I'll take Brees (81-45), Brady (88-20) & Aaron Rogers (45-20) record when throwing for 300 yards...... 45 games!!!!!! Geez is that not long enough????? Anyone here would take Brees, Brady and Rodgers. They are HOF QBs. They also have pretty good records in non 300 yard games. The vast majority of 300 yard games are not by HOF QBs and the record for the last 45 300 yard games in the NFL is 21 wins and 24 losses.
ngbills Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 34 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: He has had one game this year where he attempted over 40 passes (41) and that was the Cleveland game. If you remember correctly, he led his team to the go ahead TD with 5:26 left in the game. The defense subsequently gave up an 82 yard TD drive, where they gave up plays of 13, 21, and 24 yards. Allen then, in the last 1:44 of the game, led the team from their own 25 to the Cleveland 35 for a shot at a winning FG. He didn't have a particularly good game and neither did the rest of the team. But, he didn't need 300 yds. He stepped up when they needed him to while the defense and the kicker did not. He has never been asked to throw for over 300 yds. He has been asked to lead his team to a go ahead score when behind and he has responded over and over. Why argue this? Everyone has eyes and has seen Allen struggle. Admit that and move on. He has improve and is still improving, but lets not pretend he has chosen not to throw for 300 yards or done enough etc. If he played better in games there would be no need for any late game drives, etc. And my 40-50 was an exaggeration. But he has thrown the ball 30+ times in 7 games.
ngbills Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: Anyone here would take Brees, Brady and Rodgers. They are HOF QBs. They also have pretty good records in non 300 yard games. The vast majority of 300 yard games are not by HOF QBs and the record for the last 45 300 yard games in the NFL is 21 wins and 24 losses. Brady has thrown for 300 yds 5 times this year. Did it 5x last year and 6 the year before. Rodgers 3x this year and 4x last year Brees 3x this year (out half year), 6x last year Mahomes 6x this year, 10x last year Wilson 3x this year, 1x last year I could keep listing QB's. Point is not the number of times or using this as the measure of greatness. But the fact that Allen is at 0 is meaningful. He plays more consistent in a number of games this year and he easily passes 300 yds. It is not by design he did not hit 300, rather his inconsistent play in those games. That is who he is at this point. The Bills have adjusted and are back to using his strengths.
DCOrange Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 (edited) Looks like this thread has taken on a life of it's own, but to the OP: The top 5 passing offenses in the league this year are: Dallas - #4 in points per drive Atlanta - #12 in points per drive Kansas City - #2 in points per drive Tampa Bay - #10 in points per drive LA Rams - #19 in points per drive 3/5 are top 10 offenses and 1 of the remaining is just a tad outside. That's pretty pretty good. Edit: Just want to make it clear I'm not saying Allen needs 300 passing yards in a game or anything. Simply pointing out that the best passing offenses pretty closely coincide with the best offenses. Edited December 3, 2019 by DCOrange
billsfan1959 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 (edited) 23 minutes ago, ngbills said: Why argue this? Everyone has eyes and has seen Allen struggle. Admit that and move on. He has improve and is still improving, but lets not pretend he has chosen not to throw for 300 yards or done enough etc. If he played better in games there would be no need for any late game drives, etc. And my 40-50 was an exaggeration. But he has thrown the ball 30+ times in 7 games. I have never said Allen hasn't had his struggles. This 300 yard obsession of yours and Billsfan1972 is ridiculous. Not only did you exagerate, you used an example completely out of context in your constant need to diminish what Allen does to fit your narrative. Over the last 8 games, among all QBs, he is 5th in total TDs, 5th in TD% per total touches, 13th in YPA, 3rd in fewest turnovers, tied for 3rd in total wins, and a 98.7 QB rating. And he is still improving 13 minutes ago, ngbills said: Brady has thrown for 300 yds 5 times this year. Did it 5x last year and 6 the year before. Rodgers 3x this year and 4x last year Brees 3x this year (out half year), 6x last year Mahomes 6x this year, 10x last year Wilson 3x this year, 1x last year I could keep listing QB's. Point is not the number of times or using this as the measure of greatness. But the fact that Allen is at 0 is meaningful. He plays more consistent in a number of games this year and he easily passes 300 yds. It is not by design he did not hit 300, rather his inconsistent play in those games. That is who he is at this point. The Bills have adjusted and are back to using his strengths. And yet, here Allen and the Bills are: 1 game ahead of Mahomes and the Chiefs, tied with Rodgers and the Packers, and 1 game behind the rest that you mentioned. But, hey, keep up the crusade... Edited December 3, 2019 by billsfan1959
Rocket94 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Gugny said: You do realize that the points are scored when the ball crosses the goal line or goes through the uprights, right? Matt Stafford throws for 5,000 every flipping year and guess what .... the Lions suck every flipping year. You're just being silly. You've dipped into this well a few too many times and now the jig is up. It happens. Rookie mistake. You'll need to find a new shtick, now. Best of luck. Yes...Stafford! He was the first QB that came to mind when I saw this thread. How is it working out for him!
VW82 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 (edited) Top passers in terms of passer rating and their team records with them as a starter: 1. Tannehill -- 6-2 record, tied for 6th seed 2. Cousins -- 8-4 record, 6th seed 3. Wilson -- 10-2 record, 2nd seed 4. Jackson -- 10-2 record, 1st seed 5. Mahomes -- 7-3 record, 3rd seed 7. Watson -- 8-4 record, 4th seed 8. Brees -- 5-2 record, 1st seed 9. Rodgers -- 9-3 record, 3rd seed 10. Garappolo -- 10-2 record, 5th seed 11. Prescott -- 6-6 record, 4th seed ... 20. Allen -- 9-3 record, 5th seed 21. Brady -- 10-2 record, 2nd seed It would seem that having a good passer is still very much correlated with winning. Allen and Brady are outliers, and it's probably related to their teams having the number three and number one scoring defenses. Edited December 3, 2019 by VW82 1
oldmanfan Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, VW82 said: Top passers in terms of passer rating and their team records with them as a starter: 1. Tannehill -- 6-2 record, tied for 6th seed 2. Cousins -- 8-4 record, 6th seed 3. Wilson -- 10-2 record, 2nd seed 4. Jackson -- 10-2 record, 1st seed 5. Mahomes -- 7-3 record, 3rd seed 7. Watson -- 8-4 record, 4th seed 8. Brees -- 5-2 record, 1st seed 9. Rodgers -- 9-3 record, 3rd seed 10. Garappolo -- 10-2 record, 5th seed 11. Prescott -- 6-6 record, 4th seed ... 20. Allen -- 9-3 record, 5th seed 21. Brady -- 10-2 record, 2nd seed It would seem that having a good passer is still very much correlated with winning. Allen and Brady are outliers, and it's probably related to their teams having the number three and number one scoring defenses. This is passer rating? The continued issue that keeps being brought up herein is the lack of a 300 yard passing game by Allen, which has been shown time and again to not necessarily correlate with wins. If I have ratings correct, you could throw 12 times, complete ten for say 120 yards and 3 TDs with no int's and you'd have a very good rating.
billsfan1959 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: This is passer rating? The continued issue that keeps being brought up herein is the lack of a 300 yard passing game by Allen, which has been shown time and again to not necessarily correlate with wins. If I have ratings correct, you could throw 12 times, complete ten for say 120 yards and 3 TDs with no int's and you'd have a very good rating. Right. But, for the sake of argument, Allen, for the season, is 20th at 88.3. However, since the NE game, Allen has really improved his overall play (with lots of room to grow still) and, since that time, over the last 8 games, Allen is 10th in Passer Rating at 98.7.
DasNootz Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 300 yards is indicative that you can make chunk plays. Allen’s legs (and Tyrod before) can also make big plays. Wins are wins, and we’ll all be happy with 250 yards passing, 40 yards rushing and 2.5 combined TDs per week from our QB. 1
VW82 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: This is passer rating? The continued issue that keeps being brought up herein is the lack of a 300 yard passing game by Allen, which has been shown time and again to not necessarily correlate with wins. If I have ratings correct, you could throw 12 times, complete ten for say 120 yards and 3 TDs with no int's and you'd have a very good rating. Yes, passer rating. FWIW the average passing yards per game of the top passer rating guys through Dak is 257. So it would seem to be QB production + efficiency = wins. Bills' recent history with lack of 300 yard passing games is more weird curiosity than anything else IMO, but I do think it appropriately points to the fact we've had some serious issues at QB over the years. It's not like we haven't often been way behind and needed to throw the ball. Thankfully that hasn't been the case as much this year. The "Josh can't throw for big yardage" theme is going to continue until he does it. He's not your typical QB prospect and because of that he's going to get picked apart more than the others. There are going to be critics all the way until we're scoring lots of points and winning games mainly because of him instead of our defense, and people can point to data like passer rating to confirm it.
billsfan1959 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, VW82 said: Yes, passer rating. FWIW the average passing yards per game of the top passer rating guys through Dak is 257. So it would seem to be QB production + efficiency = wins. Bills' recent history with lack of 300 yard passing games is more weird curiosity than anything else IMO, but I do think it appropriately points to the fact we've had some serious issues at QB over the years. It's not like we haven't often been way behind and needed to throw the ball. Thankfully that hasn't been the case as much this year. The "Josh can't throw for big yardage" theme is going to continue until he does it. He's not your typical QB prospect and because of that he's going to get picked apart more than the others. There are going to be critics all the way until we're scoring lots of points and winning games mainly because of him instead of our defense, and people can point to data like passer rating to confirm it. If you are looking to passer rating to confirm it, then, Allen has been doing just that for a number of games now. Edit: Since you used Prescott as an example, as I pointed out in a previous post, Allen has a better QB rating that Prescott over the last 8 weeks. Edited December 3, 2019 by billsfan1959
ngbills Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said: I have never said Allen hasn't had his struggles. This 300 yard obsession of yours and Billsfan1972 is ridiculous. Not only did you exagerate, you used an example completely out of context in your constant need to diminish what Allen does to fit your narrative. Over the last 8 games, among all QBs, he is 5th in total TDs, 5th in TD% per total touches, 13th in YPA, 3rd in fewest turnovers, tied for 3rd in total wins, and a 98.7 QB rating. And he is still improving And yet, here Allen and the Bills are: 1 game ahead of Mahomes and the Chiefs, tied with Rodgers and the Packers, and 1 game behind the rest that you mentioned. But, hey, keep up the crusade... You must be confusing me. I do not have a crusade. I am simply stating what I think is the obvious. Allen has a ton of room for improvement. If this team had a average or bad defense the entire discussion would be different because the Bills are likely not 9-3. Allen has yet to join the elite passers. He may never join them. If the Bills can maintain a great defense and good running game they can still win for years to come. If the defense starts to decline they will need a better passing attack and hopefully Allen is up for the challenge at that point. He has all the potential in the world to do that.
oldmanfan Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, VW82 said: Yes, passer rating. FWIW the average passing yards per game of the top passer rating guys through Dak is 257. So it would seem to be QB production + efficiency = wins. Bills' recent history with lack of 300 yard passing games is more weird curiosity than anything else IMO, but I do think it appropriately points to the fact we've had some serious issues at QB over the years. It's not like we haven't often been way behind and needed to throw the ball. Thankfully that hasn't been the case as much this year. The "Josh can't throw for big yardage" theme is going to continue until he does it. He's not your typical QB prospect and because of that he's going to get picked apart more than the others. There are going to be critics all the way until we're scoring lots of points and winning games mainly because of him instead of our defense, and people can point to data like passer rating to confirm it. I don't think anyone can argue about the lack of adequate QB play since Kelly. I think we may have just solved that with Allen. It's fun to watch a Bill's QB play again! I still don't get why folks have to look for reasons to criticize the kid, the team, whatever. He is developing quite nicely I'd say. I ascribe it to a defense mechanism after so much poor play over the years. 2 minutes ago, ngbills said: You must be confusing me. I do not have a crusade. I am simply stating what I think is the obvious. Allen has a ton of room for improvement. If this team had a average or bad defense the entire discussion would be different because the Bills are likely not 9-3. Allen has yet to join the elite passers. He may never join them. If the Bills can maintain a great defense and good running game they can still win for years to come. If the defense starts to decline they will need a better passing attack and hopefully Allen is up for the challenge at that point. He has all the potential in the world to do that. Agreed, but I guess I don't understand why folks have to put qualifiers in for the team this year. Sure, if we had a bad defense our record would be worse. But instead, why not credit the GM and HC for putting together a really good D that helps their young QB in games as he develops? 1
billsfan1959 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ngbills said: You must be confusing me. I do not have a crusade. I am simply stating what I think is the obvious. Allen has a ton of room for improvement. If this team had a average or bad defense the entire discussion would be different because the Bills are likely not 9-3. Allen has yet to join the elite passers. He may never join them. If the Bills can maintain a great defense and good running game they can still win for years to come. If the defense starts to decline they will need a better passing attack and hopefully Allen is up for the challenge at that point. He has all the potential in the world to do that. I sort of reserve elite status to HOF caliber players, in which case, few players will fall into that category - particularly in their second season. What is your definition of elite passers and what are the criteria? It would be easier to debate if we are coming from the same perspective. 1
ngbills Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: I sort of reserve elite status to HOF caliber players, in which case, few players will fall into that category - particularly in their second season. What is your definition of elite passers and what are the criteria? It would be easier to debate if we are coming from the same perspective. I agree. There is a temporary elite - like a Mahomes that has looked like the best at his position but only in a short time period or even the current obsession with L Jackson. Then there is the proven, been there, done that with numbers and victories to support - Brady, Brees, Rodgers type guys. So much is relative. If say Stafford was on the Bills with this defense what does that do for this team? Or you give Prescott the Bills WR what do his numbers look like? There is team success and individual player success. The Saints kept winning with Teddy B...does that mean he is a good QB or they have a good team and supporting players?
Billsfan1972 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said: He has had one game this year where he attempted over 40 passes (41) and that was the Cleveland game. If you remember correctly, he led his team to the go ahead TD with 5:26 left in the game. The defense subsequently gave up an 82 yard TD drive, where they gave up plays of 13, 21, and 24 yards. Allen then, in the last 1:44 of the game, led the team from their own 25 to the Cleveland 35 for a shot at a winning FG. He didn't have a particularly good game and neither did the rest of the team. But, he didn't need 300 yds. He stepped up when they needed him to while the defense and the kicker did not. He has never been asked to throw for over 300 yds. He has been asked to lead his team to a go ahead score when behind and he has responded over and over. The Bills have lost games over the past 3 years, which may have ended differently if the QB threw for 300 yards..... It has already been pointed out that just by luck if the Bills did get those last 35 yards vs. Cleveland through the air then in fact they would have won & Allen threw for 300. Probably too would have beaten NE if over 300.....
Billsfan1972 Posted December 3, 2019 Posted December 3, 2019 51 minutes ago, VW82 said: Yes, passer rating. FWIW the average passing yards per game of the top passer rating guys through Dak is 257. So it would seem to be QB production + efficiency = wins. Bills' recent history with lack of 300 yard passing games is more weird curiosity than anything else IMO, but I do think it appropriately points to the fact we've had some serious issues at QB over the years. It's not like we haven't often been way behind and needed to throw the ball. Thankfully that hasn't been the case as much this year. The "Josh can't throw for big yardage" theme is going to continue until he does it. He's not your typical QB prospect and because of that he's going to get picked apart more than the others. There are going to be critics all the way until we're scoring lots of points and winning games mainly because of him instead of our defense, and people can point to data like passer rating to confirm it. No it is a result of a coaching staff not doing a great job on offense. I'd have liked to have seen Allen's progress being moved along quicker and believe what we saw the last three games were attainable much earlier with a coaching staff not hellbent on winning games 17-13.
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