Top 4 passing QB - No winning records

[billsfan1959]

8 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I will play....

3 of the 4 this year were vs CIN, NYJ and MIA. Those were games we had no business needing the late game heroics. JA had played poorly in these games requiring some bad teams to give away games. MIA counts as a comeback but reality is we scored to start the 4th quarter, so technically yes, but not really what I call a comeback win. 

 

Last year he gets credit for:

TEN - We ran the ball basically the entire drive with McCoy and Ivory and kicked a FG to win. 

JAC - Tie game and we scored to start the 4th qtr and we scored on 1st play of the 4th qtr from JAC 14. So technically yes, but not really what is a GWD. 

DET - Scored with about 10 min left in 4th. Yes gets credit for comeback and GWD but...

 

I only debate this because I think people use these 7 GWD stats too loosely. Like it shows how he can play when he needs to so nothing else matters. Just not true. I want him to play well and not need to fight for easy wins - win like we did vs DAL and DEN. Lets see the heroics vs NE or BAL this week. 

 

He is a young QB, playing in his second year, with 9 new starters on offense. They have gotten better throughout the year and, over the last three weeks, they have averaged over 400 yards per game, and won by double digits. If you don't think Allen contributed to that as a passer, then you haven't been watching. So, it seems your argument that you "want him to play well and not need to fight for easy wins" is made at an odd time.

 

Your other argument that "if you fall behind then you better be able to throw the ball" has been answered as well. It doesn't matter at all about the circumstances in which they fell behind in his 7 GWD - the fact is, when they fell behind, he was able to move the ball and score. And, to be honest, with a reliable kicker, the defense stopping the other team on a last minute drive, and a little better effort on a catch by a receiver, Allen would have 3 more game winning drives.

 

He is getting better all the time and has answered your arguments. Not sure why you are continuing to make them. 

 

 

[Reks Ryan]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 I'm in danger of @Chandler#81 smiting me for starting a controversial thread and not staying with it; I wasn't intending to bring up the tired old 300 yd game chestnut.

 

My point was it seemed as though the top passers and top teams were rather less correlated than previous years.

 

Someone above brought up a good point, there have been more QB injuries and some top teams with different QB playing extended time this year (eg New Orleans).  So I went back and looked at top passing offense on yards, rather than passers, and the data look a bit different and really quite close to

 

Some data on passing yards:

2017: 2/12 playoff teams were top 5, 5/12 top 10 for passing yards (this surprised me as being low)

2018: 2/12 playoff teams were top 5, 5/12 top 10 for passing yards (less surprise because of Ravens and Bears)

2019: if the playoffs were held based on record as of now, 2/12 playoff teams were top 5, 4/12 would be top 10.

 

So if there's a shift away from top passing= playoffs teams, it happened  <2017.  The NFL is cyclical and there have been previous cycles where run-heavy teams were succeeding.  2012-2014 comes to mind.

 

For those who want to know how it looks from the other side, each of these years 5/12 playoff teams were in the bottom half of the league for passing. 

But the bottom-half passing teams tend to make an early playoff exit.   I think in a hard-fought game, there can come a time when the team has to be able to hang it on the QB's arm to fly down the field and score and if they can't, they come up short.

 

Right now the Bills (23) are 3rd worst passing of the teams that look playoff-likely, ahead of Steelers (29) or Titans (22) and Ravens (25).

 

 

For 2018 if you look, just at the QBs, not full team Stats. 

 

- Of the top 8 QBs in passing yards, 5/8 made the playoffs

Mahomes, Goff, Luck, Brady, Rivers made it

Big Ben, M. Ryan, Rodgers didn't make it,

 

Of the 2018 AFC playoff teams only Baltimore did not have a QB in the top 12 for passing yards.   

 

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

14 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick just racked up 365 yards yesterday. That makes him good?

And the point was he needed 365 yards to win.  Is that so terrible?

7 minutes ago, Reks Ryan said:

For 2018 if you look, just at the QBs, not full team Stats. 

 

- Of the top 8 QBs in passing yards, 5/8 made the playoffs

Mahomes, Goff, Luck, Brady, Rivers made it

Big Ben, M. Ryan, Rodgers didn't make it,

 

Of the 2018 AFC playoff teams only Baltimore did not have a QB in the top 12 for passing yards.   

 

 

 

Shhhhh..... That will upset people.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Reks Ryan said:

For 2018 if you look, just at the QBs, not full team Stats. 

 

- Of the top 8 QBs in passing yards, 5/8 made the playoffs

Mahomes, Goff, Luck, Brady, Rivers made it

Big Ben, M. Ryan, Rodgers didn't make it,

 

Of the 2018 AFC playoff teams only Baltimore did not have a QB in the top 12 for passing yards.  

 

So I'm not sure whether this is the same on all sites, but this post led me to uncover an anomoly.

 

Generally speaking for most of these guys, the Team Passing and QB Passing stats should be the same, if the QB played all 16 games, which Desean Watson did in 2018.

 

But, Watson is listed at #11 (4165)  on pro-football-reference site, while the Ravens are #17 for passing yards (3781).

 

WTF?  After some calculatin', I figured out the reason for the discrepancy.  They are subtracting sack yards lost from the passing yards for team passing, but not for individual QB passing.  For some QBs that doesn't make too much difference, but for others (Watson, Prescott, Rodgers) it is significant, and I think should be taken into account.

 

So I think you get a more balanced picture looking at the team passing, unless something has gone on like the QB missing significant games.

 

When you make that correction, it lines up with what I said, that in 2018 5 of the 12 playoff teams were in the top 10 for passing yards, and yes, in the AFC 4 QB were in the top 10 for passing yards and 2 QB (Jackson and Watson) were not.  In the AFC, the Cowboys, Bears, Seahawks, and Saints were not (Saints were 12).

 

[blacklabel]

25 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And the point was he needed 365 yards to win.  Is that so terrible?

 

Didn't say it was terrible. It isn't necessary on a game by game basis to constantly throw for over 300 yards in order to win.

 

Lamar Jackson is averaging 211 passing yards per game this season. He has exactly one game where he went for over 300 (a win). He has five games this season where he's failed to crack 200 yards passing, and all five of those games were victories. Throwing for 300 yards each game is not a prerequisite to victory.

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

He is a young QB, playing in his second year, with 9 new starters on offense. They have gotten better throughout the year and, over the last three weeks, they have averaged over 400 yards per game, and won by double digits. If you don't think Allen contributed to that as a passer, then you haven't been watching. So, it seems your argument that you "want him to play well and not need to fight for easy wins" is made at an odd time.

 

Your other argument that "if you fall behind then you better be able to throw the ball" has been answered as well. It doesn't matter at all about the circumstances in which they fell behind in his 7 GWD - the fact is, when they fell behind, he was able to move the ball and score. And, to be honest, with a reliable kicker, the defense stopping the other team on a last minute drive, and a little better effort on a catch by a receiver, Allen would have 3 more game winning drives.

 

He is getting better all the time and has answered your arguments. Not sure why you are continuing to make them. 

 

 

I am not talking at all about his recent play or overall play. My only point was that the game winning drive and comeback win stats get used very liberally and if you actually look at those games they do not meet the argument of what people are generally saying. 

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

I am not talking at all about his recent play or overall play. My only point was that the game winning drive and comeback win stats get used very liberally and if you actually look at those games they do not meet the argument of what people are generally saying. 

 

So, now we are going to disect his game winning drives to show how they are not really game winning drives?

 

Don't you people ever tire of having to continually find new ways to show Allen really isn't a very good QB, just to prove yourselves right?

[ngbills]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

So, now we are going to disect his game winning drives to show how they are not really game winning drives?

 

Don't you people ever tire of having to continually find new ways to show Allen really isn't a very good QB, just to prove yourselves right?

Come on now. Your trying way too hard to twist by statement into an attack on Allen. I did not say he isnt a very good QB in my statements. Again, I just said the stats do not paint the entire picture. No different than those who say him throwing for 300 yards does not matter. It is all relative. 

[LSHMEAB]

I would say it doesn't matter if Allen throws for 300 yards as long as the Bills win, but that's something that will/needs to happen 4 or 5 times a year if he's going to reach the upper echelon.

 

In essence, I don't care that he HASN'T thrown for 300 yards, but it probably needs to start happening next year.

[HOUSE]

I blame the media, you need outrageous stats to get the pudding. Sideways passes are good too

[Kirby Jackson]

25 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I would say it doesn't matter if Allen throws for 300 yards as long as the Bills win, but that's something that will/needs to happen 4 or 5 times a year if he's going to reach the upper echelon.

 

In essence, I don't care that he HASN'T thrown for 300 yards, but it probably needs to start happening next year.

Lamar Jackson is the MVP favorite and has 1 300 yard passing games. He has 5 games under 200 yards. He just beat the top team in football with 105 passing yards. I’m just not sure why people associate 300 yard games with points?
 

The Bills need Josh to score points and limit turnovers. It doesn’t matter how he accomplishes those things and each game different things will be required. Sometimes they may need 40 points. Sometimes they may need 10. There’s no such thing as a game that you need 300 yards passing to win. No outcome is determined by passing yardage. Josh needs to worry about making the points go up not the yardage total. 

[LSHMEAB]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lamar Jackson is the MVP favorite and has 1 300 yard passing games. He has 5 games under 200 yards. He just beat the top team in football with 105 passing yards. I’m just not sure why people associate 300 yard games with points?
 

The Bills need Josh to score points and limit turnovers. It doesn’t matter how he accomplishes those things and each game different things will be required. Sometimes they may need 40 points. Sometimes they may need 10. There’s no such thing as a game that you need 300 yards passing to win. No outcome is determined by passing yardage. Josh needs to worry about making the points go up not the yardage total. 

I don't associate 300 yard passing games with winning. Plenty of garbage time stats are piled up by QB's in 300 yard games.

 

I do believe that in order for the point totals to rise significantly, the 300 yard passing games are just inevitable. 

 

Jackson is the ultimate anomaly at the position right now, so I don't think his stats mean a whole lot in relation to Allen. I'm not obsessed with these 300 yard games and if Allen wins SB's, but never throws for 300 yards, I'm MORE THAN FINE with it. Just don't think it's realistic.

[Rocket94]

41 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I don't associate 300 yard passing games with winning. Plenty of garbage time stats are piled up by QB's in 300 yard games.

 

I do believe that in order for the point totals to rise significantly, the 300 yard passing games are just inevitable. 

 

Jackson is the ultimate anomaly at the position right now, so I don't think his stats mean a whole lot in relation to Allen. I'm not obsessed with these 300 yard games and if Allen wins SB's, but never throws for 300 yards, I'm MORE THAN FINE with it. Just don't think it's realistic.

How many times have we seen it over the years. QB's throwing 300-400 yards when they are in rallying mode or forced in to shoot outs. It is like a 40 Hr guy hitting bombs when the game is out of reach or there is no one on base!

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, Rocket94 said:

How many times have we seen it over the years. QB's throwing 300-400 yards when they are in rallying mode or forced in to shoot outs. It is like a 40 Hr guy hitting bombs when the game is out of reach or there is no one on base!

For sure and that's not the kind of performance I want to see nor do I really care about the arbitrary number of 300.

 

I just feel like he's going to start hitting 300 a few times a season if he takes that next step. I certainly don't sit there and look at box scores worried about 300 yards. He's played 3 outstanding games in a row without hitting 300. But those games just come naturally when a QB truly enters the upper echelon. Allen most certainly has a chance to get there and I'm higher on him than I've ever been. Just pointing out that passing yards may be meaningless in the context of each game, but the top QB's are going to hit that mark 3-5 times a year.

Edited December 3, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Rocket94]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

For sure and that's not the kind of performance I want to see nor do I really care about the arbitrary number of 300.

 

I just feel like he's going to start hitting 300 a few times a season if he takes that next step. I certainly don't sit there and look at box scores worried about 300 yard yards. He's played 3 outstanding games in a row without hitting 300. But those games just come naturally when a QB truly enters the upper echelon. Allen most certainly has a chance to get there and I'm higher on him than I've ever been. Just pointing out that passing yards may be meaningless in the context of each game, but the top QB's are going to hit that mark 3-5 times a year.

When Allen starts throwing for 300 yards on a consistent basis, we will know that they will be quality yards...he will have arrived at that point. We can see it coming now.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

I don't associate 300 yard passing games with winning. Plenty of garbage time stats are piled up by QB's in 300 yard games.

 

I do believe that in order for the point totals to rise significantly, the 300 yard passing games are just inevitable. 

 

Jackson is the ultimate anomaly at the position right now, so I don't think his stats mean a whole lot in relation to Allen. I'm not obsessed with these 300 yard games and if Allen wins SB's, but never throws for 300 yards, I'm MORE THAN FINE with it. Just don't think it's realistic.

Oh, I’m not pointing the finger at you. I’m actually of the belief that Josh has a lot of similarities to Jackson in terms of ability to win multiple ways. The game is just changing IMO. You can win different ways if you have unique skill sets.
 

The 300 yard games are inevitable too. I guess my point is that there is no reason to even look at how many 300 yard games a guy has. If he has 6 and his team is 4-8 (hi Phil Rivers) it’s irrelevant. Allen and Jackson have combined for 1 and are 19-5. It’s just an antiquated stat that some people can’t get past. 300 yard passers are 500 over the last 2 years. There’s just a lot of passing now. It isn’t a measure of success; it is a measure of volume. When 300 yard passers win as much as they lose I’m not sure why anyone should care if we have 300 yard passing games or not? If they won 70% of the time, I would care that we had some. 
 

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[Billsfan1972]

10 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

For sure and that's not the kind of performance I want to see nor do I really care about the arbitrary number of 300.

 

I just feel like he's going to start hitting 300 a few times a season if he takes that next step. I certainly don't sit there and look at box scores worried about 300 yards. He's played 3 outstanding games in a row without hitting 300. But those games just come naturally when a QB truly enters the upper echelon. Allen most certainly has a chance to get there and I'm higher on him than I've ever been. Just pointing out that passing yards may be meaningless in the context of each game, but the top QB's are going to hit that mark 3-5 times a year.

And that is the point....  How it has not been done is an indictment on the OC & Coaching.....

 

And stop using Lamar as the example as to it not being relevant.  Baltimore is scoring 34 pts/gm & the 20 vs. SF was their lowest output (in pouring rain).  Buffalo is averaging 21.4 points & that is only due to more scoring the past 3 games (& Miami 2X).  

 

Add to that they've played a much tougher schedule. 

 

[billsfan1959]

19 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And that is the point....  How it has not been done is an indictment on the OC & Coaching.....

 

And stop using Lamar as the example as to it not being relevant.  Baltimore is scoring 34 pts/gm & the 20 vs. SF was their lowest output (in pouring rain).  Buffalo is averaging 21.4 points & that is only due to more scoring the past 3 games (& Miami 2X).  

 

Add to that they've played a much tougher schedule. 

 

 

So, let me get this straight. You are fine with the fact that Lamar Jackson is averaging 211 passing yards a game because the team is scoring 34 points a game; however; you are not fine with Josh Allen averaging 215 passing yards a game because the team is scoring 21 points a game?

 

How does all this fit in with your modern day, throw it 40-50 times for 300 yards a game obsession?

 

You make less and less sense with each new post....

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

So, let me get this straight. You are fine with the fact that Lamar Jackson is averaging 211 passing yards a game because the team is scoring 34 points a game; however; you are not fine with Josh Allen averaging 215 passing yards a game because the team is scoring 21 points a game?

 

How does all this fit in with your modern day, throw it 40-50 times for 300 yards a game obsession?

 

You make less and less sense with each new post....

Mind boggling at this point.

[Billsfan1972]

9 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

So, let me get this straight. You are fine with the fact that Lamar Jackson is averaging 211 passing yards a game because the team is scoring 34 points a game; however; you are not fine with Josh Allen averaging 215 passing yards a game because the team is scoring 21 points a game?

 

How does all this fit in with your modern day, throw it 40-50 times for 300 yards a game obsession?

 

You make less and less sense with each new post....

Again missing the point.  The Bills for the most part have had an exceedingly easy schedule & until the last three weeks every game they won was undecided into the fourth quarter (i.e. less then a TD).  Baltimore we all know is an anomaly (though Seattle too is running a great deal too this year), but have scored over 20 points every game, while the Bills when they hit that mark is in the 4th & tight games. 

 

Now if the Bills were blowing out teams & scoring 40 points and cruising the second half, I'd have to eat crow & not mention the 300 yard bar.  That however is not the case.,

 

Baltimore has been home & cooled out in 6 games this year.  

 

300 is not a high bar to reach & the fact this offense doesn't is a concern.   

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Mind boggling at this point.

No you are in your incessant need to pile on (as I knew you would)......  ? (just lowering myself to your standard).....

 

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Billsfan1972