Top 4 passing QB - No winning records

[oldmanfan]

19 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Talking about lows?  So now you are going to tell me that passing yards has no correlation to scoring points either?

 

We've have plenty here excuse 300 yard games as happening when teams need to come back & score points.  Do they do that running the ball?

 

Please tell me how Miami would have scored 37 points yesterday running the ball?  

 

I'm done with your stupidity. 

And we’re all done with your obsessions and lies and refusal to acknowledge simple facts.

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Yeah, it’s not perfect. But it does correspond nicely with Allen’s improvement this season. He was totally dragging ass earlier in the season.  Up to 23rd from 32nd-ish makes a lot of sense.  If he continues these kinds of performances he’ll be looking very, very good next season both on the field and with his metrics. 

And maybe get the same love Lamar does????

 

Watched Lamar yesterday & yep he can run the ball, but 105 yards passing and still everyone gushing over him.

[BarleyNY]

23 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And maybe get the same love Lamar does????

 

Watched Lamar yesterday & yep he can run the ball, but 105 yards passing and still everyone gushing over him.

Allen is bringing me around to believing, but I still think Lamar is Fool’s Gold.  Eventually being THAT bad of a passer will catch up to him.  Also I don’t see him holding up physically.  He doesn’t have the frame. 

Edited December 2, 2019 by BarleyNY

[prissythecat]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Buffalo is 24-21 in their last 45 games.

 

The record of the last 45 300 yard passing games in the NFL is 21-24.

 

if you remove all the losses ,   teams that have passed for 300 yards are 21-0    ?

[Billsfan1972]

Again there seems to be a number here suffering Stockholm syndrome syndrome based on the fact the Bills have gone 45 games & counting without throwing for 300 yards.  

 

Please explain how that is even possible when every other team does it minimally once a year?

 

It is what it is and pretty perplexing.

 

I want Allen to be a star & not a game manager.  I want to cheer him throwing for 350 & 4 tds, not 160 & 1td.

 

 

 

[teef]

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again there seems to be a number here suffering Stockholm syndrome syndrome based on the fact the Bills have gone 45 games & counting without throwing for 300 yards.  

 

Please explain how that is even possible when every other team does it minimally once a year?

 

It is what it is and pretty perplexing.

 

I want Allen to be a star & not a game manager.  I want to cheer him throwing for 350 & 4 tds, not 160 & 1td.

 

 

 

listen...we get it.  the bills are not playing the type of football that you want them to play.  it's your opinion, and it's fine.  i personally think this team is a work in progress, and you will see some big number games in the future, but right now things are still in a "growth" period.  

 

no one on here is anti-300 yards.  it's nonsense to think that.  most are just ok with this style of play because right now, for this team, it's bringing in wins.  this team is going to lose more games this season, and that's ok.  just win and get into the playoffs.

 

you're just not getting what you want to see right now.  i don't know why you keep repeating this over and over and over.  i have young kids.  it's what they do when they don't get what they want.  don't be a 4 year old.

[BarleyNY]

The 300 yard passing yards thing around is really annoying.  Sure, QBs often hit that when playing from behind and lose.  Sure, it’s more important to be efficient than to get a lot of yards. But, newsflash, sometimes a QB needs to be both efficient and rack up a lot of yards.  Anyone want to guess when that usually is?  Hint: It’s when two really good teams often play each other.

 

So that'd be the playoffs.  For example, let’s check out last season’s playoffs. 
 

SB: no 300 yard passer, tho the winner had more passing yards

 

Conf Champs: one 300 yd passer won, other game won by QB with more passing yards

 

Div: one 300+ yd QB beat another (winner had more yards), another 300+ yd QB won their game. In other two games no 300 yard passer.  One of those winning QBs had more yards. The other had fewer. 
 

WC: only one 300+ yd QB who lost. That was Trubisky in Chicago who lost on the missed FG as time expired. 
 

So, yeah, you don’t necessarily need 300 yard passing games from your QB to win, but it sure helps - especially when you’re in the playoffs.

 

And one last thing - I’m not ripping on Allen here.  He’s improving and if that continues,  it’ll come.  I expect Daboll to ask more of him against better teams so the table is set for it this season or post season. 

Edited December 2, 2019 by BarleyNY

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 I'm in danger of @Chandler#81 smiting me for starting a controversial thread and not staying with it; I wasn't intending to bring up the tired old 300 yd game chestnut.

 

My point was it seemed as though the top passers and top teams were rather less correlated than previous years.

 

Someone above brought up a good point, there have been more QB injuries and some top teams with different QB playing extended time this year (eg New Orleans).  So I went back and looked at top passing offense on yards, rather than passers, and the data look a bit different and really quite close to

 

Some data on passing yards:

2017: 2/12 playoff teams were top 5, 5/12 top 10 for passing yards (this surprised me as being low)

2018: 2/12 playoff teams were top 5, 5/12 top 10 for passing yards (less surprise because of Ravens and Bears)

2019: if the playoffs were held based on record as of now, 2/12 playoff teams were top 5, 4/12 would be top 10.

 

So if there's a shift away from top passing= playoffs teams, it happened  <2017.  The NFL is cyclical and there have been previous cycles where run-heavy teams were succeeding.  2012-2014 comes to mind.

 

For those who want to know how it looks from the other side, each of these years 5/12 playoff teams were in the bottom half of the league for passing. 

But the bottom-half passing teams tend to make an early playoff exit.   I think in a hard-fought game, there can come a time when the team has to be able to hang it on the QB's arm to fly down the field and score and if they can't, they come up short.

 

Right now the Bills (23) are 3rd worst passing of the teams that look playoff-likely, ahead of Steelers (29) or Titans (22) and Ravens (25).

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again there seems to be a number here suffering Stockholm syndrome syndrome based on the fact the Bills have gone 45 games & counting without throwing for 300 yards.  

 

Please explain how that is even possible when every other team does it minimally once a year?

 

It is what it is and pretty perplexing.

 

I want Allen to be a star & not a game manager.  I want to cheer him throwing for 350 & 4 tds, not 160 & 1td.

 

My first question is: why are you interested in 45 games?  If my math is right, that takes us back 4 seasons (12 + 32 = 44), to a 2016 overtime LOSS against the Dolphins. 

 

Were you watching that Dolphins game going "OMG, that Tyrod Taylor, passing for 329 yds, he's really a star and not a game manager", or something?

Osweiler had a 380 yd passing game for the Dolphins in 2018, were you watching that going "OMG, STAR!"

 

I'm just perplexed by the whole "but no 300 yd game!" mindset, especially the attributing "Stockholm Syndrome" to people who are enjoying the subsequent playoff appearance and 2x winning record and really aren't hung up on an arbitrary passing yardage milestone.  Or calling it "anti-300 yd" stuff - no one is against 300 yd games, some of us just don't see it as a particularly important yardstick.

 

I'm also perplexed about where the "every other team does it minimally once a year" stat comes from.  What's the source of this?  Because I had a little look, and I don't think that's even true.

 

PS it's really not perplexing: the Bills, under Ryan/Roman, were 1) deliberately trying to run a run-centered offense in 2015-2016 2) we had the same QB and RB for whom that offense was designed in 2017 3) in 2018, we had a gutted OL and WR and were starting a very raw rookie most of the season.  We'd all like to see Allen develop into a guy capable of running a more balanced passing attack and I think he is.  But time will tell.

[T master]

I really don't care if Josh is in the top of the stats list as long as he continues to put W's in the win column that's all that matters !

 

There have been some pretty ordinary QB's that have won super bowls in the past Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, & i'm sure we could think of a couple more, I think Josh is much better than either of those i mentioned & given that i think the Bills are in a good place with him as the QB for years to come !! 

 

But i don't care about the stat sheet ...

[ngbills]

The point is you have to be able to pass when you need to. If you a have a good defense then you can control the game and not worry about passing yards, etc. But if you fall behind then  you better be able to throw the ball. If Allen had even 1-2 300yd passing games this would be less of a discussion point. He and the Bills of recent years have not shown they can go out there and throw the ball around the field if needed. Doesnt mean you suck. Just that you need to win by controlling the game not in a shootout. 

[unclepete]

Usually you pass because your coming back or down big. Usually you run because you have a lead and are running clock. Ideally you pass to get a lead and you run to keep it. 

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Allen is bringing me around to believing, but I still think Lamar is Fool’s Gold.  Eventually being THAT bad of a passer will catch up to him.  Also I don’t see him holding up physically.  He doesn’t have the frame. 

Lamar is not a bad passer though. 

[Billsfan1972]

10 minutes ago, ngbills said:

The point is you have to be able to pass when you need to. If you a have a good defense then you can control the game and not worry about passing yards, etc. But if you fall behind then  you better be able to throw the ball. If Allen had even 1-2 300yd passing games this would be less of a discussion point. He and the Bills of recent years have not shown they can go out there and throw the ball around the field if needed. Doesnt mean you suck. Just that you need to win by controlling the game not in a shootout. 

And that is the point that is missed over & over.

 

Just this weekend we saw that Trubisky needed to throw for 300 yards to win as did Fitz....  Somehow those disagreeing will point to Wentz or Brady as the examples of 300 yard passers & their team lost.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, ngbills said:

The point is you have to be able to pass when you need to. If you a have a good defense then you can control the game and not worry about passing yards, etc. But if you fall behind then  you better be able to throw the ball. If Allen had even 1-2 300yd passing games this would be less of a discussion point. He and the Bills of recent years have not shown they can go out there and throw the ball around the field if needed. Doesnt mean you suck. Just that you need to win by controlling the game not in a shootout. 

 

I think the thing that is missed here, with both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, is that it's not quite as simple "if you fall behind then you better be able to throw the ball".

 

It's "if you fall behind, then "3.3 yds and a cloud of dust" won't do it, you better be able to gain some yards on "chunk plays".  Now those chunk plays may come on passing plays.  Jackson is very good at hitting completions for good chunks of yards at key times.  But they can also come on running plays.  Jackson is also good at breaking free with his legs at key times.  Just putting it out there that the league's most productive offense, Jackson has 1 game >300 yds and 5 games <200 yds passing.

 

Recently, the Bills have been doing better at "chunk plays" both passing and rushing (Allen or Singletary).    That's important.

 

I guess we'll see next Sunday because playing against the league's most productive offense, we're going to need our "chunks".

[ngbills]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think the thing that is missed here, with both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, is that it's not quite as simple "if you fall behind then you better be able to throw the ball".

 

It's "if you fall behind, then "3.3 yds and a cloud of dust" won't do it, you better be able to gain some yards on "chunk plays".  Now those chunk plays may come on passing plays.  Jackson is very good at hitting completions for good chunks of yards at key times.  But they can also come on running plays.  Jackson is also good at breaking free with his legs at key times.

 

Recently, the Bills have been doing better at "chunk plays" both passing and rushing (Allen or Singletary).    That's important.

 

I guess we'll see next Sunday because playing against the league's most productive offense, we're going to need our "chunks".

This is a good point. I do still think there is something to passing ability vs. scheme. Both Allen and Jackson at this point are more scheme attacks as you say with both the passing and running abilities. Neither in my mind is that pure passer - Brees, Rodgers, etc. Until you are outschemed I think you can win the Jackson/Allen way. Concern is will the league catch up to you? Both these guys do have arms and can improve their passing abilities and negate that concern over time. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, ngbills said:

This is a good point. I do still think there is something to passing ability vs. scheme. Both Allen and Jackson at this point are more scheme attacks as you say with both the passing and running abilities. Neither in my mind is that pure passer - Brees, Rodgers, etc. Until you are outschemed I think you can win the Jackson/Allen way. Concern is will the league catch up to you? Both these guys do have arms and can improve their passing abilities and negate that concern over time. 

 

I think Jackson and Allen are in different places where passing is concerned. 

 

Allen, at times this season, has been asked to be that pocket passer - to stay in the pocket, read the field, make all the throws.  The results have been mixed, in part due to Allen's learning curve, in part (my opinion) due to quality of our receiving corps or perhaps I should say hopefully, learning curve in our receiving corps.  He really needs some run game at this point (in company with most young QBs), but I see an upward trend in his numbers when asked to do that.

 

I think giving Allen more time at the line, simplified (verbiage on) play calls, and fewer personnel groupings are all positive steps towards less thinking and more doing, so I hope we're able to continue to get good results with them.

 

Let's go 10-3 baby!  whoop whoop!

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

The point is you have to be able to pass when you need to. If you a have a good defense then you can control the game and not worry about passing yards, etc. But if you fall behind then  you better be able to throw the ball. If Allen had even 1-2 300yd passing games this would be less of a discussion point. He and the Bills of recent years have not shown they can go out there and throw the ball around the field if needed. Doesnt mean you suck. Just that you need to win by controlling the game not in a shootout. 

 

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And that is the point that is missed over & over.

 

Just this weekend we saw that Trubisky needed to throw for 300 yards to win as did Fitz....  Somehow those disagreeing will point to Wentz or Brady as the examples of 300 yard passers & their team lost.  

 

The point is that you have to be able to move the ball when you need to. Period. Allen's 5 fourth quarter comebacks and 7 game winning drives shows he can do that.

[Capco]

It seems that 8 or 9 of the top 12 rushing teams are potentially playoff bound.  

[ngbills]

48 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

The point is that you have to be able to move the ball when you need to. Period. Allen's 5 fourth quarter comebacks and 7 game winning drives shows he can do that.

I will play....

3 of the 4 this year were vs CIN, NYJ and MIA. Those were games we had no business needing the late game heroics. JA had played poorly in these games requiring some bad teams to give away games. MIA counts as a comeback but reality is we scored to start the 4th quarter, so technically yes, but not really what I call a comeback win. 

 

Last year he gets credit for:

TEN - We ran the ball basically the entire drive with McCoy and Ivory and kicked a FG to win. 

JAC - Tie game and we scored to start the 4th qtr and we scored on 1st play of the 4th qtr from JAC 14. So technically yes, but not really what is a GWD. 

DET - Scored with about 10 min left in 4th. Yes gets credit for comeback and GWD but...

 

I only debate this because I think people use these 7 GWD stats too loosely. Like it shows how he can play when he needs to so nothing else matters. Just not true. I want him to play well and not need to fight for easy wins - win like we did vs DAL and DEN. Lets see the heroics vs NE or BAL this week. 

[blacklabel]

23 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

300 yard games are correlated with good QB’s.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick just racked up 365 yards yesterday. That makes him good?