Top 4 passing QB - No winning records

[Billsfan1972]

Here we go the anti-300 yards stupidity again.....

 

2018 Passing Leaders by yards.....  Yep all suck & terrble records too....  See Brees too is missing, another garbage QB....

 

1.	Ben Roethlisberger • PIT	5129
2.	Patrick Mahomes • KAN	5097
3.	Matt Ryan • ATL	4924
4.	Jared Goff • LAR	4688
5.	Andrew Luck • IND	4593
6.	Aaron Rodgers • GNB	4442
7.	Tom Brady • NWE	4355
8.	Philip Rivers • LAC	4308
9.	Eli Manning • NYG	4299
10.	Kirk Cousins • MIN	4298

Edited December 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[RiotAct]

wouldn’t have thought Winston was in the top 4 this year

[Ta111]

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Here we go the anti-300 yards stupidity again.....

 

2018 Passing Leaders by yards.....  Yep all suck & terrble records too....  See Brees troo is missing, another garbage QB....

 

1.	Ben Roethlisberger • PIT	5129
2.	Patrick Mahomes • KAN	5097
3.	Matt Ryan • ATL	4924
4.	Jared Goff • LAR	4688
5.	Andrew Luck • IND	4593
6.	Aaron Rodgers • GNB	4442
7.	Tom Brady • NWE	4355
8.	Philip Rivers • LAC	4308
9.	Eli Manning • NYG	4299
10.	Kirk Cousins • MIN	4298

Don’t think it’s anti-300 yards in and of itself. It’s those who think 300 yards in and of itself means something, it doesn’t. It’s a meaningless figure. Need to look ay many factors, RZ effectiveness, third down  completions that lead to first downs etc...

the point being made is that many of those QBs throwing for 300 yards are losing games.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

34 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Here we go the anti-300 yards stupidity again.....

 

2018 Passing Leaders by yards.....  Yep all suck & terrble records too....  See Brees troo is missing, another garbage QB....

 

1.	Ben Roethlisberger • PIT	5129
2.	Patrick Mahomes • KAN	5097
3.	Matt Ryan • ATL	4924
4.	Jared Goff • LAR	4688
5.	Andrew Luck • IND	4593
6.	Aaron Rodgers • GNB	4442
7.	Tom Brady • NWE	4355
8.	Philip Rivers • LAC	4308
9.	Eli Manning • NYG	4299
10.	Kirk Cousins • MIN	4298

#1,3,6, 9,and 10 did not make playoffs. Perhaps us anti-300 yarders aren't so stupid.

 

Edited December 1, 2019 by Ethan in Portland

[Billsfan1972]

16 minutes ago, Ta111 said:

Don’t think it’s anti-300 yards in and of itself. It’s those who think 300 yards in and of itself means something, it doesn’t. It’s a meaningless figure. Need to look ay many factors, RZ effectiveness, third down  completions that lead to first downs etc...

the point being made is that many of those QBs throwing for 300 yards are losing games.

No the point is the Bills have gone 45 games without one that to mean seems almost impossible to do, unless your coaching philosophy is so out of date......

 

BTW for those who haven't looked, the Bills are not 45-0 over those 45 games, which seems to be the argument that you don't need to throw for 300 by some posters here..... 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No the point is the Bills have gone 45 games without one that to mean seems almost impossible to do, unless your coaching philosophy is so out of date......

 

BTW for those who haven't looked, the Bills are not 45-0 over those 45 games, which seems to be the argument that you don't need to throw for 300 by some posters here..... 

My argument is that it is totally irrelevant. I posted it in the offseason I think but 300 yard passers had a losing record last year. There is literally ZERO correlation between passing yards and winning.
 

Gross stats in general don’t tell any story. Efficiency stats do. 

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My argument is that it is totally irrelevant. I posted it in the offseason I think but 300 yard passers had a losing record last year. There is literally ZERO correlation between passing yards and winning.
 

Gross stats in general don’t tell any story. Efficiency stats do. 

A totally irrelevant stat that is shown on almost all sources.  Tell you what if I agree with you, however tell you I want to see it (along with 3+TD passes) would that make you feel better?????? 

[BringBackOrton]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My argument is that it is totally irrelevant. I posted it in the offseason I think but 300 yard passers had a losing record last year. There is literally ZERO correlation between passing yards and winning.
 

Gross stats in general don’t tell any story. Efficiency stats do. 

300 yard games are correlated with good QB’s.

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

A totally irrelevant stat that is shown on almost all sources.  Tell you what if I agree with you, however tell you I want to see it (along with 3+TD passes) would that make you feel better?????? 

It’s on here. I’m not good at searching but if someone else is it’s there. It was like a game or 2 under .500. Basically, you could win or you could lose with 300 yards. It’s shown on all sources because people are lazy and it’s easy to find. Old people (ie network people) use gross stats because they can quickly get them. They don’t want to have to work. 
 

Teams don’t care about that. It has no impact on winning and losing. That’s why teams employ robust analytics departments. They are looking for things that correlate with wins and losses. If they see something like “teams that run for 4.8 yards a carry win 74% of the time” they will be trying to build a roster to accomplish that. 

 

Now passing TDs is different. Any TD is different because it’s actual points. I should have clarified; yardage stats are irrelevant. Obviously if a team throws 3 TDs, runs for 3 TDs, has 3 Td returns or whatever, they are more likely to win. The average NFL team scores 22.4 points per game in 2019. If you are going to throw for 3 TDs you’re more likely than not to have more than 22.4 points.

8 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

300 yard games are correlated with good QB’s.

I guess, but have nothing to do with winning. Lamar Jackson may be the league MVP. He leads the league in TDs. He has 1 300 yard game and it was the 1st game of the season against a Miami team that was in disarray. 

Edited December 1, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s on here. I’m not good at searching but if someone else is it’s there. It was like a game or 2 under .500. Basically, you could win or you could lose with 300 yards.

 

Now passing TDs is different. Any TD is different because it’s actual points. I should have clarified; yardage stats are irrelevant. Obviously if a team throws 3 TDs, runs for 3 TDs, has 3 Td returns or whatever, they are more likely to win. The average NFL team scores 22.4 points per game in 2019. If you are going to throw for 3 TDs you’re more likely than not to have more than 22.4 points.

I guess, but have nothing to do with winning. Lamar Jackson May be the league MVP. He leads the league in TDs. He has 1 300 yard game and it was the 1st game of the season against a Miami team that was in disarray. 

Good QB’s “have nothing to do with winning.” 

 

Interesting. Top 5 QBs in NFL history with the most 300 yards games have 10 Super Bowls between them. Extend it out to the top 20 in 300 yard games and you have 21 Super Bowl wins.

 

Is the lesson over?

[Mr. WEO]

It's an anomaly.

 

Brees, Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben have been in the top 5 passers for years.   Lots of playoff games in that group.

 

This thread is silly in its inference.  

[BringBackOrton]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

It's an anomaly.

 

Brees, Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben have been in the top 5 passers for years.   Lots of playoff games in that group.

 

This thread is silly in its inference.  

Yep. 3 of those players missed significant games this year as well. The other 2 are old. Guys like Rivers are now old. 

 

Even a cursory analysis could prove this “anomaly” to mean nothing.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

Good QB’s “have nothing to do with winning.” 

 

Interesting. Top 5 QBs in NFL history with the most 300 yards games have 10 Super Bowls between them. Extend it out to the top 20 in 300 yard games and you have 21 Super Bowl wins.

 

Is the lesson over?

I’m arguing it’s not a good indicator of a “good QB.” In terms of Super Bowls that’s as much a sign of longevity as anything. Great QBs win Super Bowls. Great QBs throw a lot. How many passing attempts and starts do those guys have compared to others? I’ll bet you they all rank high in career attempts and games. If you start 100 games you should throw for 300 more than people that start 15. My argument is simple, and factual. In the CURRENT NFL (wide open passing league) there isn’t a correlation between 300 yards and winning. Now maybe if you push the number to 400 yards there will be.  
 

Also, the game is changing!! That’s why I used the Lamar Jackson example. He has 1. He leads the league in TDs!! That’s a stat that matters. There’s no lesson. 

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

It's an anomaly.

 

Brees, Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben have been in the top 5 passers for years.   Lots of playoff games in that group.

 

This thread is silly in its inference.  

Of course it is!!!!  

 

It is another stoopid attempt to pretend that throwing for yards (in this case it is 300 yards) means nothing. 

 

These are from people still thinking the Defense is the 2000 Ravens & dreaming of Trent Dilfer as the prototypical QB.....??

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Of course it is!!!!  

 

It is another stoopid attempt to pretend that throwing for yards (in this case it is 300 yards) means nothing. 

 

These are from people still thinking the Defense is the 2000 Ravens & dreaming of Trent Dilfer as the prototypical QB.....??

It’s an anomaly.  But winning football teams do so with balance.  Pass when it’s to your advantage, run when it’s to your advantage, play good defense.  Win the turnover battle.  Dominate up front.  

 

You are more interested in being entertained than in wins.  We all get that.

[BringBackOrton]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m arguing it’s not a good indicator of a “good QB.” In terms of Super Bowls that’s as much a sign of longevity as anything. Great QBs win Super Bowls. Great QBs throw a lot. How many passing attempts and starts do those guys have compared to others? I’ll bet you they all rank high in career attempts and games. If you start 100 games you should throw for 300 more than people that start 15. My argument is simple, and factual. In the CURRENT NFL (wide open passing league) there isn’t a correlation between 300 yards and winning. Now maybe if you push the number to 400 yards there will be.  
 

Also, the game is changing!! That’s why I used the Lamar Jackson example. He has 1. He leads the league in TDs!! That’s a stat that matters. There’s no lesson. 

I mean, you can argue it’s not good, but I provided the cold hard factual truth. You could argue that career passing attempts are associated with good QB’s because of course it is. You could argue career passing TD’s is also associated with good QB’s as well. But you can NOT argue that career 300 yard games IS NOT correlated with good QB’s and that it is NOT correlated with Super Bowl wins, because the numbers are the numbers.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

I mean, you can argue it’s not good, but I provided the cold hard factual truth. You could argue that career passing attempts are associated with good QB’s because of course it is. You could argue career passing TD’s is also associated with good QB’s as well. But you can NOT argue that career 300 yard games IS NOT correlated with good QB’s and that it is NOT correlated with Super Bowl wins, because the numbers are the numbers.

Show me the correlation coefficients.

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Of course it is!!!!  

 

It is another stoopid attempt to pretend that throwing for yards (in this case it is 300 yards) means nothing. 

 

These are from people still thinking the Defense is the 2000 Ravens & dreaming of Trent Dilfer as the prototypical QB.....??

I can only speak for myself on this. It has nothing to do with 20 years ago or the old Ravens. There isn’t a correlation.
 

Here ya go, if my math is right, going into today 300 yard passers are 48-48-2 on the year. https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html
 

Last year they were 65-65-2 (again assuming that my math is correct). If you count the playoffs they were 68-67-2. Someone PLEASE show me why I’m wrong!! 300 yard passing games do not correlate to winning!! https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html?yr=2018

Edited December 1, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[Ethan in Cleveland]

39 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No the point is the Bills have gone 45 games without one that to mean seems almost impossible to do, unless your coaching philosophy is so out of date......

 

BTW for those who haven't looked, the Bills are not 45-0 over those 45 games, which seems to be the argument that you don't need to throw for 300 by some posters here..... 

It does seem very difficult to go that long without a 300 yard passer. 

But that doesn't mean there is a correlation between 300 yard passing games and win/loss record. You can change the font, the color, and put it in italics all you want, but it won't make it so.

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, aristocrat said:

A balanced offense always is the key. Look at the lions as the example. Also, defense wins titles. 

 

This. You can have a passing attack that eats up clock and just moves the chains. Sprinkle in some designed runs to keep the pass rush honest, QB scrambles to move the chains, and you may not have that air raid attack, but you will keep the other offense off the field. Usually, those are not lop-sided yardage and score games; rather, they are games where a team is in control of field position,TOP, and the score.

 

Throwing for a ton of yards USUALLY means trying to catch up in a game where there has been a defensive melt down. It also usually (not always) means turnovers, sacks, and ints on the side chucking it downfield. It is not a direct correlation to winning football games. That is why the magic 300 yard mark is so meaningless in regards to winning football games.

 

If folks on this board said they would like to know if Josh could throw 300 plus yards and get us back in a game, I think we have seen some 4th qtr comebacks with glimpses of that. That being said, I don't think he is quite there yet to have to pass for 350 or 400 yards to have us climb back into a game. Or at least I would not want to have to ask him to do that yet, but I am confident that level of skill is in there and will gradually emerge.

 

As I have said before, if he keeps working he will keep trending in the right direction.