Bored - Offseason Speculation

[Not at the table Karlos]

13 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Wallace, Johnson, and Phillips are all players that I’m really curious to see what offers they will see from other teams.  

I think Wallace is an ERFA so I don’t think he can get a contract from anyone else as long as he is tendered. I may be wrong on my interpretation of the rules tho. 

 

Pretty sure Foster is an ERFA too

Edited December 1, 2019 by Not at the table Karlos

[Reed83HOF]

I'm really thinking Shaq Barrett with a front loaded deal the first year. Fills the LorAx need and end rusher need when we flip out of the base D. Can still draft the DE in RD1 (if that is a better positional/player value at our pick); DE can have a year or so to groom behind Jerry. WR is a top need and it all depends where the draft falls.

 

We also could always move Edmunds to fill LorAx's roll and draft a run stuffing MLB as well. Lots of options and hard to nail down without a set draft position. I am hoping for pick #32 of course!

[Virgil]

12 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

I think Wallace is an ERFA so I don’t think he can get a contract from anyone else as long as he is tendered. I may be wrong on my interpretation of the rules tho. 

You’re right. I’m wrong 

 

15 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Also- I love this article because it offers pro-comps for the best WR’s in the class. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2864432-ranking-the-top-10-wide-receivers-of-potentially-historic-2020-nfl-draft-class

 

Personall, I don’t watch a lot of tape so it’s hard for me to know how a player plays without descriptions - pro comps are fun because I can think “would I want a Deandre Hopkins type player, or Devante Adams.” Obviously they’re no guarentee to be that player, but I like the baseline of knowing skill-set and how they play.

I wait for the year end highlight videos.   I pay attention for what they consider to be their best plays.  If they are wide open, non-nfl plays, then I feel like they are a crapshoot. If they are plays that would be tough even in the NFL and multiple, then I start paying more attention 

Edited December 1, 2019 by Virgil

[Mat68]

I dont see the need for that many re signings.  I may be wrong but Buffalo still have control or tags available for Foster and Wallace.   McKenzie is interesting and a solid contributor/Beasley backup.  Jordan Phillips Imo is a guy I would let test FA.  I like Lawson and would give him a fair offer but not over pay.  

[Not at the table Karlos]

6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Sportrac has him as UFA, but they could be wrong

 

Spotrac has them as ERFA

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/levi-wallace-25587/

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/robert-foster-25582/

Edited December 1, 2019 by Not at the table Karlos

[Jerboski]

Great thread, enjoying it 

 

I want yannick in free agency, I believe he would take this D to the Elite of the elite level, assuming Phillip's is back.

 

For the draft, two possible scenarios I like:

 

Trade up for lamb and if we keep our second take okwara from ND

 

Or take simmons (love the idea) or the OT from Iowa in the first, grab Pittman in the second 

 

I also.wouldnt be opposed to Higgins or the kid from colorado in the first 

Edited December 1, 2019 by Jerboski

[Virgil]

5 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Spotrac has them as ERFA

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/levi-wallace-25587/

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/robert-foster-25582/

So, we can sign them to a tender, others can offer, but we can match or get compensation. Correct?

Edited December 1, 2019 by Virgil

[Not at the table Karlos]

5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

So, we can sign them to a tender, others can offer, but we can match or get compensation. Correct?

I think we offer them a tender and they’re our property for a year and no one can offer a contract. But that’s where my interpretation of the rule gets hazy. 

 

RFA can get offers from other teams and we get compensation but I don’t think ERFA can. I’ll look for the rules

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001021617/article/2019-nfl-free-agency-glossary-all-the-terms-you-need-to-know%3fnetworkId=4595&site=.news&zone=story&zoneUrl=url%3Dstory&zoneKeys=s1%3Dstory&env&pageKeyValues=prtnr%3Danalysis%3Bplyr%3Djoseph_flacco%3Bplyr%3Dcasey_keenum%3Bplyr%3Dshelby_harris&p.ct=Analysis&p.adsm=false&p.tcm=%23000&p.bgc1m=%23EAEAEA&sr=amp

 

“Exclusive rights free agent (ERFA): Any player with fewer than three accrued seasons and an expired contract. If his original team offers him a one-year contract and the league minimum (based on his credited seasons), the player cannot negotiate with other teams.”

 

Edited December 1, 2019 by Not at the table Karlos

[AunteEm]

26 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I like the formula of a young RB and a veteran RB.  I didn't see any FA RBs on your lists, but I wonder who's out there that would be a good fit to spell Singletary.

Don't forget we have Christian Wade who's been with the team all this year already learning the american game. And he"s been learning from a future HOFer Gore.  It will be interesting to learn how well he can play next preseason. He'll have an edge on any college rookies drafted if his rugby skills translate well over the course of the year with the Bills, added bonus he already knows our playbook and our culture.  

[offyourocker]

49 minutes ago, elijah said:

If you’re not paying 8 for Levi you’re likely letting Levi walk 

Johnson is playing much better in my opinion

[Kangaxx]

I'd love to pick up this guy in the third round. Perfect complement to Singletary. 

 

Edited December 1, 2019 by BillsFanForReal

[Virgil]

7 minutes ago, offyourocker said:

Johnson is playing much better in my opinion

Johnson has the most potential, as he’s proved it. His injury history is what I think allows us to keep him for cheap.  If healthy for more than a season, he’s getting 10 mil easily.  
 

Wallace had a few bad games, but has overall played very well.  I’m more worried about losing him to someone else.  

[Gugny]

23 minutes ago, BakersDozen said:

Don't forget we have Christian Wade who's been with the team all this year already learning the american game. And he"s been learning from a future HOFer Gore.  It will be interesting to learn how well he can play next preseason. He'll have an edge on any college rookies drafted if his rugby skills translate well over the course of the year with the Bills, added bonus he already knows our playbook and our culture.  

 

I would LOVE for that kid to make the 53.  Singletary, Wade and a vet.

[Stallions]

1 hour ago, offyourocker said:

I would not pay 8 for Levi or 4.5 for Liuget or 3 for Coleman

No way Levi gets $8 mil for next year.  He's splitting time now as the season goes on and NOT a difference maker.

[Stallions]

Excellent information - THANKS for the work!

[BeastMaster]

Armstead is exactly what this team needs in free agency. 

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I'll be honest, Bills are 9-3, don't play tomorrow, and I'm not dreading the rest of the season.  I have absolutely no idea what to do with myself right now.  So, I'm going to look at the current FA class, mock drafts, and our salary cap to have some fun.  Feel free to play along or dismiss and move on.

 

Salary Cap Space: 91 Million (26 mil in rollover, 1 mil in dead cap (Wow Beane!))

Draft Position:  25th (I'm giving us a first round win)

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

Starting Players heading into last year of deal:

Trent Murphy - Cut (Save 7.2 Million.  Dead hit of 1.75 mil)

Ty Yeldon - Cut (Save 1.6 Mil.  Dead 250k)

Ty Nsekhe - Let play out

Jon Feliciano - Let Play Out

Jordan Poyer - Let Play Out

Tre White - Trigger 5th year option

Andre Roberts - Let Play Out

Patrick DiMarco - Let Play Out

Matt Barkley - Let Play Out

Dion Dawkins - Extend - 14 Mil per

Matt Milano - Extend - 8 Mil per

Corey Bojorquez - Let Play Out

Total Spent on Extensions - 13.2 Mil (with the cuts)

 

***Total Cap Remaining for Additional Free Agents - 31.2 mil

 

Positions of Interest:

OLB - Lorax is retiring

DE - Murphy and Shaq could be gone

WR - Need a big bodied #1

RB - Backup to Singletary

OLB/MLB - Depth

 

2020 Free Agents (In order of rank from NFL.com and projected contract from Spodrac)

OLB/Edge - Jadeveon Clowney (20.3 mil) Seahawks have 78 mil in cap space

DE - Yannick Ngakoue (17.4 mil) Jaguars with only 7.5 mil in cap space

OLB/Edge - Bud Dupree

OLB/Edge - Shaq Barrett

WR - AJ Green

OT - Anthony Castonzo

DT - Gerald McCoy

DE - Arik Armstead

DT - DJ Reader

OLB/Edge - Matthew Judon

OLB/Edge - Dante Fowler Jr (10.5 mil)

TE - Austin Hooper

TE - Hunter Henry

DT - Javon Hargrave

WR - Amari Cooper (18.7 mil)

 

Mock Draft Results

Walter Football - 1st - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU, 2nd - Yasir Durant, OT, Missouri, 3rd - Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State

Draftek - 1st - Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado, 2nd - JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio St, 3rd - Jaylon Johnson, DB, Utah

Phinsider - 1st - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU, 2nd - Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

Draftsite - 1st - Antonio Golden, WR, Liberty, 2nd - Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon, 3rd - Jabari Zuniga, DE, Florida

 

 

The long and short of it, we have the money to go after one major prize FA, but I don't see us spending 15+ mil on anyone that's not our own.  Yannick would be the most realistic option for us if we do decide to go after someone.  Everyone else is going to be mid-tier, which has worked for us thus far.  I'm the most concerned about replacing Lorax, but there are quite a few mid-tier guys out there.  Wide Receiver is another position I think will be focused on, and every mock has us going there with our 1st pick.  Fortunately, it's a deep draft there.

 

For those wondering tops at those positions:

 

FA Wide Receivers

AJ Green

Larry Fitzgerald

Emmanuel Sanders

Devin Funchess

Amari Cooper

DeVante Parker

Randall Cobb

Danny Amendola

Travis Benjamin

Bershad Perriman

Robby Anderson

 

FA OLB

Dante Fowler

Mario Addison

Whitney Mercilus

AJ Klein

Terrell Suggs

Mychal Hendricks

Shaquil Barrett

Bruce Irvin

Shaq Thompson

 

Projected Possible 1st Round WR (My Choice is to see which one over 6'2 falls to the second and trade up)

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Laviska Shenault Jr, Colorado, 6'2", 4.52

CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, 6'2" 4.55

Jalen Reagor, TCU, 5'11", 4.35

Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty, 6'4", 4.54

Henry Ruggs 3rd, Alabama, 6', 4.4

Justin Jefferson, LSU, 6'3", 4.5

Tamorrion Terry, Florida State, 6'4", 4.5

Gabriel Davis, UCF, 6'3", 4.5

DeVonta Smith, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Tee Higgins, Clemson, 6'4" 4.55

 

Projected Possible 1st Round OLB

Isaiah Simmons, Clemson *My Choice for our 1st pick)

Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (OLB/ILB)

Terrell Lewis, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

Jon Greenard, Florida (OLB/DE)

Julian Okwara, Notre Dame

Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

 

 

Alright, that's all I got.  This was more for me than everyone else to just look around at what's going on.  It's strange to not have to care that much about this as we hit December.  But I enjoy these kinds of things.  @whatdrought@BuffaloHokie13Get ready for the mock drafts

 

 

Thanks for the info, but I’m going to watch the SF/Ravens game to see how they match up and take a close look at the Ravens.  You know the team will be reviewing this game a good portion of the week.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but wish we had picked up that 5th year option on Shaq. He’s come on pretty well, and would have been nice to have for a final year on his rookie year. 
 

I think we aren’t going to have much of a shot at getting either Clowney or Yannick.

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, elijah said:

Hunter Bryant, TE, Washington, KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State, JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State all top my wishlist in the draft. 

 

Hamler is is an extremely fast receiver from Penn State.  He doesn’t have the same height and size as Foster, but his overall game is that of Foster & McKenzie combined and he could fill their roles with just one roster spot leaving an extra one for a bigger bodied receiver like Duke

 

If you’re not paying 8 for Levi you’re likely letting Levi walk 

I think the BIlls should let Johnson play and see what we got before deciding on whom  to  invest.

23 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Johnson has the most potential, as he’s proved it. His injury history is what I think allows us to keep him for cheap.  If healthy for more than a season, he’s getting 10 mil easily.  
 

Wallace had a few bad games, but has overall played very well.  I’m more worried about losing him to someone else.  

But Johnson has NOT been injured this year.  SO that will get thrown out the window.

[DCbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

I think Wallace is an ERFA so I don’t think he can get a contract from anyone else as long as he is tendered. I may be wrong on my interpretation of the rules tho. 

 

Pretty sure Foster is an ERFA too

You are correct.  Both are ERFAs.  As long as Bills tender an offer they are here next year.