What is the market for Henry?

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I think the correct answer is nobody knows for sure, because this draft market is so difficult to set because it is generally seen as a much weaker draft than last year (clearly the assessment varies by position as this year's QB crop is generally judged to be far less talented than last year's Manning/Rivers/RoboQB/Losman crew but this year's RB crop looks to be deeper as far as those judged to be 1st round worthy RBs).

 

To make matters even more difficult to predict, though the RB crop is strong (which generally lowers Henry's value as a better RB can almost definitely be had with a top 10 RB pick) pickings are so slim at other positions like QB or CB that if a team like AZ, TB or Miami spends a top 10 pick to fill their RB hole these teams run the risk of not being able to get a player they desperately need at another position.

 

The depth of the RB pool actually seems to be enhancing Henry as trade bait because teams do not seem to want to risk going into the 2nd round or even into the 3rd for their marquee RB even in this deep RB draft. Henry provides a cap friendly former Pro Bowler 2005 pick that is attractive to a team looking to promote their product as moving beyond the Emmit Smith or the Wickey Williams era. A team will not be able to do this promotion with the 5th or higher RB taken even if he could be the next Julius Jones.

 

Folks seem to be now wondering if the Bills have soured on Shelton after his visit here (maybe but I guess probably not because even an injured Shelton is better than Dylan McFarland or disrupting our OL continuity by shifting Teague to LT) or whether we view ourselves as good to go on the OL with the pick-up up of Gandy and Anderson for the left side (I doubt it as I think Gandy is a far more likely to be the player to replace Marcus Price as a handyman rather than as a starting quality LT).

 

As best as i can tell, TD has clearly demponstrated he is a master of understandingthe market as the last couple of drafts have seen some outstanding market moves by the Bills:

 

1. Picking WM surprised everyone because folks judged Henry's performance coming off a Pro Bowl berth as making RB a non-need for the Bills. Instead, TD trusted his docs and saw that Henry's performance allowed the Bills to not only pick WM, but devote his first year to rehab to turn this top-5 level talent into a producer.

 

2. The WM pick showed the mastery of the marketplace TD has as it was his tagging of Price that produced this pick after he had drafted Reed who fell to the 2nd round when people perceived us as having no WR need. He dealt with filling the perceived need by trading up to grab Denney was a demonstrably tremendous market read as Pitts was on the phone with him when the Bills zipped in. Again some folks shortsightedly view the pick of Kelsay as a clear showing that Denney was a failed reach. However, this ignores the fact that with the GW inspired shift from the 3-4 to the 4-3 we were likely gonna be picking DL players high in the draft because this increased DL demand coincided with lower DL supply as we lost Wiley to FA, Big Ted and Bruce as cap casualties and Hansen to retirement. An objective demonstration of the Denney pick working for us is that he allowed us to go only 3 deep at DL as he proved capable of backing up both Kelsay and Schobel. Anyone who wants to claim Denney simply sucked needs to explain how our D finished ranked statistically among the best in the league with a DE rotation which consisted on only 3 players.

 

3. The trade for the Losman pick last year looks masterful on many different levels as:

 

A. many pundits judge him to be a better talent than almost all if not all the QBs available in this year's draft.

B. By picking Losman at #21 last year we got a QB with the 2005 pick (+) who now has a year of pro experience and who has a lower salary than it would have taken to get a QB this year.

 

Overall, i think the Bills are in the driver's seat right now because AZ abd Green screwed up in a number of ways:

 

A. Both Shelton and Green have bad-mouthed each other so it is pretty clear that one way or the other AZ must move him. Henry is virtually certain a goner as a Bill, but TD has always spoken highly of him and if the Bills do not move him his two choices are to make peace and try to get the big contract he wants as a back-up to WM or pull a Wckey Williams and leave the game. AZ needs to deal with the real possibility that the Bills will merely wait until June and sign the cap casualty Shelton for no trade loss.

 

B. Green miscalculated badly the league interest in Shelton. There is limited interest not simply due to assessment of Shelton but actually the LT market is pretty thin as most team have been overpaying to get an LT for years. As big dollars are locked in for average players like Petitgout or Clifton there simply is limited demand for LTs. There were actually few landing pads for Jennings (SF was one of very few if any teams with an LT opening and cap room and they overpaid for Jennings as best as I can tell) and there is now one fewer for Shelton even if he is healthy.

 

C. AZ added a couple of potential LTs top their roster in addion to the highly paid Leonard Davis who took Shelton;s job. AZ simply will need to get rid of Shelton merely to make their cap busget.

 

It may well be that the Bill's docs saw something they did not like or that JMc sees something he doesn't want to work with. However, far more likely to me is that TD has read the market and knows that he has AZ over a barrel. Even worse for AZ, there are rumors floating around out there that a team like TB with tons of picks and limited cap room may be interested in the cap friendy Henry and though Miami does not have a #2 round pick, they desperately need to use their #1 to fill several holes left by the Wannstedt miscalculations and bad luck of Fiedler, Boston, and Gordon (I think that is the name of their last RB trade error) and the need to get beyond the Wickey episode which getting a former Pro Bowl RB would help alot.

 

I think that AZ has retreated from their original demand of a pick and Henry for Shelton to offering publicly to trade player for player to sending out strong signals that they really want Henry and folks feel it is the Bills who will not pull the trigger on a trade and a flip of picks..

 

I think the Bills are milking this one for all its worth.

[CoachChuckDickerson]

Nice job, but I've got to be honest with you. Just looking at the sheer length of one of your posts makes my brain hurt.

[stuckincincy]

I'd question the sanity of a GM that would fork over anything above a low 3rd rounder for TH.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I'd question the sanity of a GM that would fork over anything above a low 3rd rounder for TH.

302867[/snapback]

 

Each season brings me to question the sanity of several GMs when i see moves they make so certainly this is no disqualifier of the potential for a good deal for Henry.

 

A friend of mine with whom i used to lead Outward Bound style camping trips with summarized dealing with kids by saying don't look for logic where there isn't any.

 

I think that is true for many GMs as well.