Bills have second least amount of cap allocated to top 5 player

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Props to @SoTier for having the balls to keep coming on this board. I mean, he is almost universally considered a joke, and has been absolutely clowned off this board several times.  I have heard of dying on your hill, but he takes it to a whole nothing level. He dies on a mountain of irrational gibberish that to the average observer would look more like a puddle of nonsensical mud.  

[HardyBoy]

23 hours ago, NoSaint said:

I think where we diverge is that you wanted to keep a window open longer.
 

This will be wildly over simplified but what I’m arguing is that there are 2 windows and spending in the first only minimally effects whether the second opens or it’s overall results. 

 

if Josh is THE guy, our second window instantly becomes 15 years, with some light cycling through reloading and how well we draft.

 

but you almost never get the $30m in annual cap savings vs his vet deal again. That window is unique and short and you have to take advantage of it faster than most here realize, in my opinion.

When we get to that crossroads on josh, I think we’d all much rather have had a parade and put up a trophy. The rams and eagles and bears and chiefs aren’t going to flop because they pushed chips on the table- it’s going to be whether their qbs end up being more Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick when that crossroad comes (to use a recent obvious rivalry that diverged)

 

how you build a roster around a rookie deal or a vet deal can, and should, be substantially different 

 

I do think you can extend the window though, both through keeping draft capital to maintain the flexibility to get players with the flexibilty to play in the system, but even more by carrying over cap space. The cap space carry over is really the key in my opinion.

 

Reason is that let's say JA's cap hit is $50m/yr with the new deal over the 3 years before they restructure (making up the numbers). However, you carried over $120m in cap that was built up during the time when you had qb savings. That cap hit, if you spend all the savings over that three years suddenly goes down to $10m per year. You are still technically paying your qb rookie deal money.

 

(Sorry my reply isn't better written or ackowledges more of your points, I only had a few minutes to write on my phone before heading out to do some stuff with the family. Let's keep this convo going though because I'm super curious to see how it plays out, because I think it's pretty clear that Beane has a plan (not saying it has to be the right one necessarily) and really excited to see what that ends up being).

Edited December 1, 2019 by HardyBoy

[Boca BIlls]

On 11/29/2019 at 11:00 PM, billspro said:

We will have to pay Allen, White, Milano, Edmunds, and Dawkins soon. This won’t last long.

That is a good problem, Edmunds is a long way away, so is Allen.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Props to @SoTier for having the balls to keep coming on this board. I mean, he is almost universally considered a joke, and has been absolutely clowned off this board several times.  I have heard of dying on your hill, but he takes it to a whole nothing level. He dies on a mountain of irrational gibberish that to the average observer would look more like a puddle of nonsensical mud.  

 

So, you admit your personal aim is to make TSW simply another cheerleading platform for the Bills?  Good luck with that, fanboy.

[Watkins90]

On 11/29/2019 at 10:38 PM, Rbleyle said:

Axing Tyler Kroft will save another 5 million.  We are going to have an insane amount of cap space next year.  

Let’s try not be so presumptuous....yeah?  Cutting Star saves over 2 million.  With the amount of cap space we have taking a 7.8 million cap hit is very doable since we will want to re-sign Phillips.  I don’t see Hughes going anywhere, he’s the only decent edge rusher on this team, and we just re-signed him. 

With such a big amount of cap space next year, why do we even need to cut Star, unless we can absolutely upgrade the position. You only cut players when you need too. Even average players playing on a bloated contract isn't bad when you this much cap space. It's now on Beane to be a cap wizard and continue to keep us out of cap hell.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

24 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

So, you admit your personal aim is to make TSW simply another cheerleading platform for the Bills?  Good luck with that, fanboy.

 

That comeback was the equivalent of "Noooo you're stupid" 

[Watkins90]

On 11/29/2019 at 10:53 PM, Mark Vader said:

 

 

Let's not forget about players like Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, Quinton Spain & Kevin Johnson. Do we give them new deals for next year?

 

How about Micah Hyde & Jordan Poyer, do we give them extensions before they become free agents?

I think you offer them all contracts, but if they want more than you are willing to pay, you let them walk. I mean, it isn't like Johnson is blowing up the stat sheet. I would imagine it won't be too costly to resign him or Spain. Phillips and Lawson will command a pretty penny. If I were a team I would worry about Lawson though. He still isn't a get after the QB D-Lineman. If he gets a big contract, I don't think he'll ever be able to live up to it because teams are going to expect double digit sacks and I just don't see him doing that consistently. 

[Dr.Sack]

Every year the salary cap goes up, and we continue to find value via the draft & bringing in quality veterans. The #1 goal is winning. I believe Beane & Co. are correct in their idea that you accumulate draft capital, nail your draft picks, and find team first veterans who want to compete. This team is stacked with those guys. The process is working. Let’s keep it rolling. 

[Mark Vader]

2 minutes ago, Watkins90 said:

I think you offer them all contracts, but if they want more than you are willing to pay, you let them walk. I mean, it isn't like Johnson is blowing up the stat sheet. I would imagine it won't be too costly to resign him or Spain. Phillips and Lawson will command a pretty penny. If I were a team I would worry about Lawson though. He still isn't a get after the QB D-Lineman. If he gets a big contract, I don't think he'll ever be able to live up to it because teams are going to expect double digit sacks and I just don't see him doing that consistently. 

Jordan Phillips is the only player that I would overpay for.

 

I would give Shaq Lawson a respectable and reasonable deal, if he doesn't like that, he can walk.

 

I would like to have both Spain & Johnson kept on the team, but I'm not breaking the bank for them.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

 

I do think you can extend the window though, both through keeping draft capital to maintain the flexibility to get players with the flexibilty to play in the system, but even more by carrying over cap space. The cap space carry over is really the key in my opinion.

 

Reason is that let's say JA's cap hit is $50m/yr with the new deal over the 3 years before they restructure (making up the numbers). However, you carried over $120m in cap that was built up during the time when you had qb savings. That cap hit, if you spend all the savings over that three years suddenly goes down to $10m per year. You are still technically paying your qb rookie deal money.

 

(Sorry my reply isn't better written or ackowledges more of your points, I only had a few minutes to write on my phone before heading out to do some stuff with the family. Let's keep this convo going though because I'm super curious to see how it plays out, because I think it's pretty clear that Beane has a plan (not saying it has to be the right one necessarily) and really excited to see what that ends up being).

no worries and I appreciate it.

 

counter point- any team generally will have some highs and lows as they push chips in, and then regroup. I wouldn’t argue we do anything totally absurd and crippling... but if we have a window where we have a built in 15% advantage in cap vs the rest of the league, let’s max it even a little more 

 

now I’m not saying league minimum contracts with 100m signing bonuses to kick everything down the line and trading the entire next three years drafts... but there’s responsibly aggressive in spending the entire cap (and maybe a touch extra by structure) and toss a pick here and there to turn that 15% advantage into (totally made up here) 20-25%. even if that leaves us at 90% later. 
 

Assuming josh is the guy there are going to be 20 years of mild ups and downs - but we can have a HUGE up, with a run of the mill down behind it. It’s hard to get a ring and the way you take some of the luck out of it is over indexing in talent. In a few years the only way to do that is taking risks on guys, or incredible drafting. Today we can do it just by being a team making decisions as if we are really a contender. 

[Rbleyle]

1 hour ago, Watkins90 said:

With such a big amount of cap space next year, why do we even need to cut Star, unless we can absolutely upgrade the position. You only cut players when you need too. Even average players playing on a bloated contract isn't bad when you this much cap space. It's now on Beane to be a cap wizard and continue to keep us out of cap hell.

You answered your own question.  If you can upgrade, you’re not going to pay a backup DT 10 mil a year.  There’s some good DTs expected to be available in FA. 

[billspro]

7 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I hope they don't do this. 

 

Franchise tag Poyer? 

 

I hope they sign Poyer to a 3 year deal. That’s a big if, I don’t think Johnson is starter material. 

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Props to @SoTier for having the balls to keep coming on this board. I mean, he is almost universally considered a joke, and has been absolutely clowned off this board several times.  I have heard of dying on your hill, but he takes it to a whole nothing level. He dies on a mountain of irrational gibberish that to the average observer would look more like a puddle of nonsensical mud.  

There is one on every board and so tier wears it woh pride 

[DefenseWins]

Cutting Star is a possibility. The cap hit would not be that bad and can be spread over the next two years if that happens. Murphy has had a quietly good season. Star helped himself though with the deflection of the Dallas FG try at the end of the 1st half on Thanksgiving. Depends what happens the rest of the way and who the Bills draft early in rds 1 and 2 this offseason. I'm not expecting any big name signings in FA either. Allen and Edmonds are just in their 2nd seasons. Lorax will no doubt retire and Hughes will be gone by the time we need to extend Allen and Edmonds. Bills are in fine salary cap shape.

[Seoulofstone]

9 hours ago, SoTier said:

Actually, it doesn't appear that Jackson "landed" in Baltimore by happenstance.  Ozzie Newsome, his assistant GM Eric DeCosta (current GM) and John Harbaugh apparently targeted Jackson as they executed a couple of trades leading up to the draft to acquire that 32nd pick as their second first rounder in 2018.  They also executed some trades to acquire Flacco in the 2008 draft.  The Ravens also brought in Greg Roman in 2018 to eventually replace Morningwen which he did in 2019, so it's likely this group had a vision of acquiring Jackson and maximizing his talent.  The Ravens under Newsome have always been primarily a strong defense/run first offense, and DeCosta seems likely to continue that philosophy.

 

   I think you misunderstand my meaning. Clearly when you draft someone in the 1st its not an accident. They wrote the name on the card.

 

  They obviously assessed him and thought we like him and we could build an O around him. However 31 players were selected prior to that. When you give 30 other teams a opportunity it sends a clear message that hes considered an hit or miss prospect. In those circumstances he clearly 'could' have 'landed'  in a different situation had someone else liked him.

 

  I'm not knocking Lamar. But I am saying had he been in the same situation as Allen or Rosen with a poor Oline, or in Rosen's case an FO that weren't convinced about him things could have gone badly for him. Instead he has a strong Oline, a good D and a roster well used to being playoff contenders so he was set up to succeed. And genuinely I am just as happy that he is succeeding as Josh Allen. I hate it when people are written off before they've had an opportunity.

Edited December 2, 2019 by Seoulofstone

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

There is one on every board and so tier wears it woh pride 

@SoTier’s posts are a breathtaking mix of hindsight, revisionism, and fiction. In a lot of ways it’s actually beautiful. 

[ganesh]

8 hours ago, Rbleyle said:

You answered your own question.  If you can upgrade, you’re not going to pay a backup DT 10 mil a year.  There’s some good DTs expected to be available in FA. 

And they would demand 10M a year...WIth the salary cap hit and the new salary, it would be foolish for the Bills to get marginal improvement.  Then there is also the question of team chemistry. 

[SCBills]

10 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

So, you admit your personal aim is to make TSW simply another cheerleading platform for the Bills?  Good luck with that, fanboy.

Im not a fanboy poster, but all I had to do was read your post listing Indy as a “big boy AFC team” and I can pretty much disregard anything else you have to say. 
 

Unfortunately for you, with the way we’ve looked the past 3 weeks, and the way Josh has looked the past 3 weeks, you just sound like you’re whining rather than providing any insightful counter-narrative. 

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, ganesh said:

And they would demand 10M a year...WIth the salary cap hit and the new salary, it would be foolish for the Bills to get marginal improvement.  Then there is also the question of team chemistry. 

 

This.  If the Bills had a relatively cheap young DT already on the roster that was ready to replace Lotulelei, then cutting Star would make sense, but Oliver plays the other DT position (his improvement may have contributed to Lotulelei's improved play recently or they may be complementing each other) and Harrison Phillips is on injured reserve, so the Bills can't count on him to come back from his injury and step into a starting role immediately.   Otherwise, the numbers don't make sense.  $10 million for a marginally better DT, Lotulelei's deadcap hit of +/- $8 million, and whatever a veteran backup DT would cost ($2 million? $4 million?) adds up to more than just keeping Lotulelei for a year even if the Bills could find another DT who was somewhat better. 

 

It's also a great insurance policy in case the starter goes down for the season for a team that's serious about winning football games and making noise in the playoffs, especially since the Bills have the cap space to keep Lotulelei for another season.