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Posted
12 hours ago, The Wiz said:

White and Dawkins, yes. Milano, another two years. Allen and Edmunds, another 3 years with the 5th year option. 

 

We will be fine. 

Plus we will lose the contracts of Hughes and Murphy. We'll always replace some contracts with rookie deals too. I agree, we'll be fine.

12 hours ago, billspro said:

We will have to pay Allen, White, Milano, Edmunds, and Dawkins soon. This won’t last long.

I think it's a little early for Dawkins to have earned a big new contract. He'll need to show more through next season.

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Posted
1 hour ago, MJS said:

It would be tough to lose any of those players. Love them all. Luckily some of them are still far down the line.

Plus a few decent size deals contracts will be gone in the meantime, Neseke, Long, Kroft maybe, Hauschka...,  I really don't see any issues in the foreseable future.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson will need to be paid this off-season and they should  both receive contracts large enough that put them into our top 5 for next season I would think.

 

  I think it depends a lot on whether Beane is going to try to hit FA hard this year or focus on the draft with occasional splashes in FA. Both strategies can make sense. You can load up on talent in FA (assuming players want to come) but done wrong you can end up like the Rams. Or you can pay your own and trust your scouting and schemes to be able to plug in new players with just occasional FA acquisitions. The added bonus with this is that you can pick up comp picks- Lawson, Phillips and Spain assuming you don't offset it by bringing guys in. Its hard to accept because they have all done well but if you're truthful Phillips career sack records shows this year to be an anomaly. I'm wary of guys who come good in contract years. Does he work in the system? Sure, but maybe others could too, plus  I expect Ed Oliver to be the man going forward. Regardless i hope Phillips gets paid somewhere. Lawson has clearly improved under McD but he will want more than he has been worth across his career, I would rather take Ngakoue in FA who has been more consistent over time as a pass rusher. You don't like to lose Spain because of depth and familiarity on the Oline but it will depend on the offers he gets and the Bills should again avoid overpaying.

 

Quote

 

I think they sneaked into the wild card though right? They have a legitimate chance this year to be the #1 overall seed in the AFC IF they can get by us next weekend. Plus they possibly have the league MVP. I think Ozzie is still the running.

 

 Baltimore Is just a well run organisation-a perennial contender.  Ozzie isn't there anymore though. I love Lamar but he actually landed in a great situation with an above average Oline and exceptional OC who could custom the O to his unique talents. So whats been going on there is a lot to do with coaching and correct use of the pieces assembled i just don't think  its as transformative as the Bills because they have been consistently good for a number of years.

Edited by Seoulofstone
Posted
13 hours ago, The Wiz said:

White and Dawkins, yes. Milano, another two years. Allen and Edmunds, another 3 years with the 5th year option. 

 

We will be fine. 

But I also see Murphy and star cut or taking less and draft picks replacing others.  We are in great shape 

Posted

we need to cut Murphy and Kroft. players eating up a chunk of our cap space that we don't need on the team. 

 

I really hope we can make a blockbuster trade this offseason, Beane tried it with AB so we know he has it in him. go get an elite pass rusher or WR. 

Posted
13 hours ago, NoSaint said:


yup. We are in a 2-3 year window here, followed by a re-tool where we find out if Josh can carry a team.

 

roughly this year and next should be our easiest shot at winning a super bowl because we can so wildly over index on talent.

 

to John asking if he’s GM of the year... I suppose the question is do you think we have a shot and do you think we maximized those odds?

 

id say an outside shot if josh stays hot and we get some bounces. I do think we could have pushed more chips on the table to maximize those odds though. 
 

the folks that confused me most all offseason were those that thought we had no chance but loved the regime. 

 

I agree if Josh and the offesne stay hot they have a real shot this year at doing something great. That said I have loved this regime from the start, and did not think this year was going to be the year. The (first) window for this team to me always really started next year, and the primary goal of this year was seeing growth in JA. If they have a hope of extending that window, they must keep those assets though and not add through trades unless they are for quality players on cost controlled long term contracts, which you really aren't seeing available on the trade market (yes comp picks for one year rentals potential, but this team is bringing in too many FAs next year most likely to qualify). 

 

I would much rather have had a down year this year, and see JA struggle to start and then improve in the short/intermediate game than to just stay in his comfort zone and succeed, but not jump levels and be pushed to really grow (basically what happened).

 

That leap, fingers crossed, seems to have happened, and the easy early schedule and elite defense has allowed this team to win games while that development happened. I believe the window truly opens next year, like multi year super bowl contender window, but it might have opened a crack now.

 

So I love the regime, did not think, or expect this year to be the year, and personally happy they didn't cash in any future assets to improve the team this year, because you need those to maintain extended success after paying a qb.

 

I appreciate your post a lot, agree they could have made this year better. That said they didn't, which almost makes me think Foster's injury was worse than we knew to start the year and he is about to be the piece you were hoping they would have added...on the roster the whole time.

Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

 

I agree if Josh and the offesne stay hot they have a real shot this year at doing something great. That said I have loved this regime from the start, and did not think this year was going to be the year. The (first) window for this team to me always really started next year, and the primary goal of this year was seeing growth in JA. If they have a hope of extending that window, they must keep those assets though and not add through trades unless they are for quality players on cost controlled long term contracts, which you really aren't seeing available on the trade market (yes comp picks for one year rentals potential, but this team is bringing in too many FAs next year most likely to qualify). 

 

I would much rather have had a down year this year, and see JA struggle to start and then improve in the short/intermediate game than to just stay in his comfort zone and succeed, but not jump levels and be pushed to really grow (basically what happened).

 

That leap, fingers crossed, seems to have happened, and the easy early schedule and elite defense has allowed this team to win games while that development happened. I believe the window truly opens next year, like multi year super bowl contender window, but it might have opened a crack now.

 

So I love the regime, did not think, or expect this year to be the year, and personally happy they didn't cash in any future assets to improve the team this year, because you need those to maintain extended success after paying a qb.

 

I appreciate your post a lot, agree they could have made this year better. That said they didn't, which almost makes me think Foster's injury was worse than we knew to start the year and he is about to be the piece you were hoping they would have added...on the roster the whole time.


I think where we diverge is that you wanted to keep a window open longer.
 

This will be wildly over simplified but what I’m arguing is that there are 2 windows and spending in the first only minimally effects whether the second opens or it’s overall results. 

 

if Josh is THE guy, our second window instantly becomes 15 years, with some light cycling through reloading and how well we draft.

 

but you almost never get the $30m in annual cap savings vs his vet deal again. That window is unique and short and you have to take advantage of it faster than most here realize, in my opinion.


When we get to that crossroads on josh, I think we’d all much rather have had a parade and put up a trophy. The rams and eagles and bears and chiefs aren’t going to flop because they pushed chips on the table- it’s going to be whether their qbs end up being more Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick when that crossroad comes (to use a recent obvious rivalry that diverged)

 

how you build a roster around a rookie deal or a vet deal can, and should, be substantially different 

Edited by NoSaint
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

This post is mostly untrue.  McDermott and Beane did NOT "inherit" a mess.  They inherited a middle of the road offense that needed a QB and a good defense that needed better coaching.  They created their own "mess" by choosing to cut current salary and collect draft picks without regard to cap implications.  Brandon, Whaley, and McDermott let future All Pro DB Stephon Gilmore and two excellent WRs, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin, walk in FA without offering them competitive contracts.  In the draft, they chose to pass on two excellent QB prospects in order to trade back to take a replacement for Gilmore.  When Beane came aboard, his first notable transaction was to trade Sammy Watkins so that the Bills had no reasonable downfield threat.   He also traded away highly paid LT Cordy Glenn to move up in the draft to #7, which also incurred a major cap hit. The only player departure that contributed significantly to the 2018 dead cap problem that wasn't based on McDermott and Beane's personnel decisions was Wood's retirement due to injury.

 

One alternative to what Brandon/Whaley/McDermott did in 2017 would have given the Bills much more talent today.  They could have chosen to pay Gilmore and taken either Mahomes or Watson, both of whom were better prospects and are currently better QBs, than Josh Allen --- and both have as much leadership skills as Allen.  They could have chosen to let Gilmore walk but re-signed one or both of Woods or Goodwin.   That would have still left the Bills with a viable WR corps even after they traded away Watkins.  They wouldn't have wasted a third round pick on Benjamin and they could have kept Ronald Darby instead of trading him away for Matthews.

 

Another alternative was for the Bills to keep Tyrod Taylor, not take the cap hit, and not sign AJ McCarron.  Or if they just HAD to get rid of Taylor, then they should have named McCarron starter not had a rigged competition where McCarron and Allen played against first teams while Peterman played against scrubs so that he looked "better".

 

Moreover, McDermott and Beane WERE given a "blank check" -- and they made lots of faux pas.  Don't pretend otherwise.  The current team is about at the same talent level as the team that they inherited with the exception of QB and coaching. 

 

The jury is out on the Bills right now despite their big win against Dallas.   It's very likely that the Bills make the playoffs this year but there's no denying that they've been the recipient of some really good luck -- an easy schedule and some opponents' misfortunes (injuries, illnesses) and miscues (poor kicking) while largely avoiding major injuries to key players themselves.   They have also only played 1 truly top class NFL team this season, NE, and they've lost to 2 of the 3 other talented teams they faced (Philly and Cleveland).  

Nobody knows if they're good enough to go with the big boys of the AFC like Baltimore, KC, Indy or Pittsburgh much less whichever bully comes out of the loaded NFC.

 

Classic sotier foolishness right here. The mess they inherited included two overpaid, constantly injured players and a guy who's now at best a rotational DT that was being paid top five dollars.

 

Whaley was a great pro scout, but a garbage GM. Fortunately, we now have an actual GM.

 

Either this post is proof of idiocy or trolling. No one with a functional frontal cortex could possibly be this ridiculous.

Edited by Joe in Winslow
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Posted

DE will be an interesting spot this coming offseason with how to attack it.  Hughes isn’t getting any younger and Lawson will be tough to sign after Buffalo declines his option which looks silly now. 

Posted
3 hours ago, MDH said:


You don’t extend the QB after year 3. Teams have to take advantage of their rookie deals to extend their window as long as possible. It’ll be after year 4 (at the earliest, they could conceivably wait until after they do the optional 5th year)  that they’ll extend Allen.

 

Lock 'em up early and save a few mill.  After year 4 or 5, the asking price could be 33-35M/yr.

Posted
15 hours ago, KayAdams said:

Hughes and Star will be here at least one more season because their dead cap numbers are too high until 2021

The Bills have plenty of cap space and decisions should be based on production relative to contract, who else is available and at what cost, but not cap impacts - including dead money.

Posted
7 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

This post is mostly untrue.  McDermott and Beane did NOT "inherit" a mess.  They inherited a middle of the road offense that needed a QB and a good defense that needed better coaching.  They created their own "mess" by choosing to cut current salary and collect draft picks without regard to cap implications.  Brandon, Whaley, and McDermott let future All Pro DB Stephon Gilmore and two excellent WRs, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin, walk in FA without offering them competitive contracts.  In the draft, they chose to pass on two excellent QB prospects in order to trade back to take a replacement for Gilmore.  When Beane came aboard, his first notable transaction was to trade Sammy Watkins so that the Bills had no reasonable downfield threat.   He also traded away highly paid LT Cordy Glenn to move up in the draft to #7, which also incurred a major cap hit. The only player departure that contributed significantly to the 2018 dead cap problem that wasn't based on McDermott and Beane's personnel decisions was Wood's retirement due to injury.

 

One alternative to what Brandon/Whaley/McDermott did in 2017 would have given the Bills much more talent today.  They could have chosen to pay Gilmore and taken either Mahomes or Watson, both of whom were better prospects and are currently better QBs, than Josh Allen --- and both have as much leadership skills as Allen.  They could have chosen to let Gilmore walk but re-signed one or both of Woods or Goodwin.   That would have still left the Bills with a viable WR corps even after they traded away Watkins.  They wouldn't have wasted a third round pick on Benjamin and they could have kept Ronald Darby instead of trading him away for Matthews.

 

Another alternative was for the Bills to keep Tyrod Taylor, not take the cap hit, and not sign AJ McCarron.  Or if they just HAD to get rid of Taylor, then they should have named McCarron starter not had a rigged competition where McCarron and Allen played against first teams while Peterman played against scrubs so that he looked "better".

 

Moreover, McDermott and Beane WERE given a "blank check" -- and they made lots of faux pas.  Don't pretend otherwise.  The current team is about at the same talent level as the team that they inherited with the exception of QB and coaching. 

 

The jury is out on the Bills right now despite their big win against Dallas.   It's very likely that the Bills make the playoffs this year but there's no denying that they've been the recipient of some really good luck -- an easy schedule and some opponents' misfortunes (injuries, illnesses) and miscues (poor kicking) while largely avoiding major injuries to key players themselves.   They have also only played 1 truly top class NFL team this season, NE, and they've lost to 2 of the 3 other talented teams they faced (Philly and Cleveland).  

Nobody knows if they're good enough to go with the big boys of the AFC like Baltimore, KC, Indy or Pittsburgh much less whichever bully comes out of the loaded NFC.

It's funny you see this post as a list of mistakes...I see it as shrewd and thus far highly successful management.

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Posted
21 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree mcbeane created this “mess” but your hindsight game is silly to me. A couple of those moves I agree could be seen as letting a good player (Gilmore) but at the end of the day they have gotten us into a really good position for the future. I never felt that way with Whaley. So yeah they tore it down but damn if the rebuild doesn’t look good. 

 

I'm not arguing that they (McDermott/Beane) haven't done a competent job, but I am tired of the fanboys rewriting history to make McDermott and Beane into some kind of geniuses.   The Bills are in a good situation via the cap because they have very few high priced veterans and their best young players are all on their rookie contracts, not because Beane has done a miraculous job managing the cap.  IIRC, most of the OLers signed this past off season were signed to modest one-year contracts, so if the Bills want to have continuity on the OL, they are going to have to give 1 or 2 of the OLers market rate contracts for 2020.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I'm not arguing that they (McDermott/Beane) haven't done a competent job, but I am tired of the fanboys rewriting history to make McDermott and Beane into some kind of geniuses.   The Bills are in a good situation via the cap because they have very few high priced veterans and their best young players are all on their rookie contracts, not because Beane has done a miraculous job managing the cap.  IIRC, most of the OLers signed this past off season were signed to modest one-year contracts, so if the Bills want to have continuity on the OL, they are going to have to give 1 or 2 of the OLers market rate contracts for 2020.

The difference is that by shipping Darby, Watkins and Glenn he got draft picks in return.  This allowed him to keep his cap numbers down and at the same time got assets back that thye used to get their Franchise QB.   You have to credit Beane for managing the cap.

Posted

 

20 hours ago, Seoulofstone said:

 

When Lynch was hired they had among the highest available cap. Virtually every Dlineman on that defence is not just a first rounder but a top 20 pick. He didn't draft a QB and the jury is still out on Garropolo. They have a really brilliant HC but considering what they started with they really should be playoff contenders. What makes Buffalo so much more impressive is that Beane started with an old roster close to the cap but he has freed up a ton of space while creating a foundation of good young players. It's also why I think the hindsight analysis of@SoTier misses the mark.

 

   He says just pay Gilmore, Woods, Darby conveniently ignoring that they couldn't afford to. It also completely ignores the fact that McD wanted to build the team with guys he wanted which whether or not you like that makes a ton of sense and is borne out by the culture you now see. Every GM in the league is wishing they hadn't undervalued Mahomes and Watson.

 

Why couldn't the Bills "afford" to pay Gilmore, Woods, and Darby?   This excuse is getting pretty old because it's been used over and over in the past two decades by Bills fans to defend the team getting rid of top young players they've developed.  Other teams, including those paying $20-30 million to a QB, manage to pay talented DBs and WRs -- and other players -- they've developed. 

 

McDermott hasn't won anything yet with "his guys".  His 2017 team made the playoffs with players he inherited.  Moreover, it's pretty clear that in the salary cap era, successful coaches are the ones who can create a "culture" among a disparate group of players that are a mix of guys they've inherited and guys they've added.
 

 

 

Posted
27 minutes ago, ganesh said:

The difference is that by shipping Darby, Watkins and Glenn he got draft picks in return.  This allowed him to keep his cap numbers down and at the same time got assets back that thye used to get their Franchise QB.   You have to credit Beane for managing the cap.

 

Shedding talent and collecting draft picks and then putting an uncompetitive team on the field the next year isn't "managing the cap".   It's simply sacrificing talent for current salary savings while pacifying the fan base with hope based on those draft picks, and the Bills have done this before.   What is different from previous Bills regimes is that the Bills haven't added a big name veteran like Tyrell Owens or Mario Williams.   When McDermott and Beane have to decide on which of their young veterans to pay -- including Josh Allen -- that's when real cap management will come into play.

Posted
On 11/30/2019 at 9:56 AM, SoTier said:

 

This post is mostly untrue.  McDermott and Beane did NOT "inherit" a mess.  They inherited a middle of the road offense that needed a QB and a good defense that needed better coaching.  They created their own "mess" by choosing to cut current salary and collect draft picks without regard to cap implications.  Brandon, Whaley, and McDermott let future All Pro DB Stephon Gilmore and two excellent WRs, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin, walk in FA without offering them competitive contracts.  In the draft, they chose to pass on two excellent QB prospects in order to trade back to take a replacement for Gilmore.  When Beane came aboard, his first notable transaction was to trade Sammy Watkins so that the Bills had no reasonable downfield threat.   He also traded away highly paid LT Cordy Glenn to move up in the draft to #7, which also incurred a major cap hit. The only player departure that contributed significantly to the 2018 dead cap problem that wasn't based on McDermott and Beane's personnel decisions was Wood's retirement due to injury.

 

One alternative to what Brandon/Whaley/McDermott did in 2017 would have given the Bills much more talent today.  They could have chosen to pay Gilmore and taken either Mahomes or Watson, both of whom were better prospects and are currently better QBs, than Josh Allen --- and both have as much leadership skills as Allen.  They could have chosen to let Gilmore walk but re-signed one or both of Woods or Goodwin.   That would have still left the Bills with a viable WR corps even after they traded away Watkins.  They wouldn't have wasted a third round pick on Benjamin and they could have kept Ronald Darby instead of trading him away for Matthews.

 

Another alternative was for the Bills to keep Tyrod Taylor, not take the cap hit, and not sign AJ McCarron.  Or if they just HAD to get rid of Taylor, then they should have named McCarron starter not had a rigged competition where McCarron and Allen played against first teams while Peterman played against scrubs so that he looked "better".

 

Moreover, McDermott and Beane WERE given a "blank check" -- and they made lots of faux pas.  Don't pretend otherwise.  The current team is about at the same talent level as the team that they inherited with the exception of QB and coaching. 

 

The jury is out on the Bills right now despite their big win against Dallas.   It's very likely that the Bills make the playoffs this year but there's no denying that they've been the recipient of some really good luck -- an easy schedule and some opponents' misfortunes (injuries, illnesses) and miscues (poor kicking) while largely avoiding major injuries to key players themselves.   They have also only played 1 truly top class NFL team this season, NE, and they've lost to 2 of the 3 other talented teams they faced (Philly and Cleveland).  

Nobody knows if they're good enough to go with the big boys of the AFC like Baltimore, KC, Indy or Pittsburgh much less whichever bully comes out of the loaded NFC.

Don't bother wasting your breath. Fan boys do not want to hear reason. They survive on faith, prayer and hope. Not on proven facts, being realistic, or having cautious optimism. That is their religion. Facts and counseling caution and actually waiting for their greatest dreams to come true goes against their religion. Blasphemy!

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, simpleman said:

Don't bother wasting your breath. Fan boys do not want to hear reason. They survive on faith, prayer and hope. Not on proven facts, being realistic, or having cautious optimism. That is their religion. Facts and counseling caution and actually waiting for their greatest dreams to come true goes against their religion. Blasphemy!

 

It must kill you guys that you were proven wrong and that Beane did IN FACT inherit a cap mess.   I don't understand how you guys cannot get it through your thick skulls that they didn't want to keep those players.  They didn't want to keep Sammy, they didn't want to keep the other players.  They wanted to build the team with the sort of players that they wanted to start from scratch with.

 

Yet you two, despite the Bills on pace to make their 2nd playoff appearance in 3 years and CLEARLY fielding the best young group of talent that we've had in over two decades, still continue to B word at the success that Beane and McD have achieved.

 

You guys are a riot :lol:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Magox
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Posted
22 hours ago, Seoulofstone said:

 

 I think you're projecting what you hope for onto that situation. Let's look at the facts. 7.8 mill dead money for a 2 mill cap saving? That's making a move for the sake of it and not something a conservative coach is likely to do. McD loves him since Carolina and defended him even before his play picked up. He's not going to be cut to save 2 mill just because Bills fans hate him because he's overpaid for a DT. Now 2021 when his dead money number is 5.2 versus 5.6 cap saving, I think there is a much bigger chance he's cut.

 

I agree with this totally.  I think it was a mistake to sign Lotulelei to the big contract that the Bills gave him, but it would be a bigger mistake to cut him in 2020 and add nearly $8 million in dead cap dollars.  The Bills are NOT going to find a comparable starting DT to replace him for $2 million, much less a better one -- and the Bills need 2 starting DTs.  Harrison Phillips' progress has been derailed by his injury, so nobody know if he'll return to his previous form next season, and if that is good enough to make Lotulelei expendable in 2021.

 

21 hours ago, bills6969 said:

When would we give Allen a new contract?  Obviously, his rookie deal is good thru 2021, but we don't and shouldnt have to wait until then to resign him?

 

It depends upon Allen's play next season.  If he plays like he'll be a $30-35 million QB, then the Bills should probably sign him sooner than later.  OTOH, if he looks he's likely to be a pretty good QB but not an elite one, then the Bills should probably wait until 2021 and probably exercise his fifth year option.  They can always extend him in 2021 or 2022 if he continues to play well.

 

21 hours ago, MDH said:


You don’t extend the QB after year 3. Teams have to take advantage of their rookie deals to extend their window as long as possible. It’ll be after year 4 (at the earliest, they could conceivably wait until after they do the optional 5th year)  that they’ll extend Allen.

 

Exactly.  You only extend a QB early if he plays like a generational talent.  Right now, I think that Mahomes and Watson have played well enough to merit being signed early.  It's too early to talk about the 2018 QBs right now.

 

20 hours ago, Seoulofstone said:

 

 Baltimore Is just a well run organisation-a perennial contender.  Ozzie isn't there anymore though. I love Lamar but he actually landed in a great situation with an above average Oline and exceptional OC who could custom the O to his unique talents. So whats been going on there is a lot to do with coaching and correct use of the pieces assembled i just don't think  its as transformative as the Bills because they have been consistently good for a number of years.

 

Actually, it doesn't appear that Jackson "landed" in Baltimore by happenstance.  Ozzie Newsome, his assistant GM Eric DeCosta (current GM) and John Harbaugh apparently targeted Jackson as they executed a couple of trades leading up to the draft to acquire that 32nd pick as their second first rounder in 2018.  They also executed some trades to acquire Flacco in the 2008 draft.  The Ravens also brought in Greg Roman in 2018 to eventually replace Morningwen which he did in 2019, so it's likely this group had a vision of acquiring Jackson and maximizing his talent.  The Ravens under Newsome have always been primarily a strong defense/run first offense, and DeCosta seems likely to continue that philosophy.

 

18 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Lock 'em up early and save a few mill.  After year 4 or 5, the asking price could be 33-35M/yr.

 

Maybe, maybe not.  That was the thought that the Jets and the Dolphins had (adjusted for salaries at the time) when they extended Mark Sanchez and Ryan Tannehill respectively, and neither lived up to their pay level.  OTOH, the Jags exercised their fifth year option on Blake Bortles who had been up and down on his rookie contract.  When he had another down year, they cut their losses and sent Bortles packing.  Both the Titans and Bucs waited to decide whether to extend their first round QBs, and the Titans, at least, are certainly happy they did.  My guess is that the Rams extended Goff too early, and that it's too early to say Wentz should or should not have been extended early.  The Eagles at least have cap space and draft picks to continue putting talent around Wentz.

 

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