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Am I right about this: one more Pat’s AFC loss besides our game and the Bills control their own destiny?

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dollars 2 donuts All Pro

dollars 2 donuts

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Schop said yesterday even with help the Bills can’t really catch the Pats, or something to that effect.

 

However, if the Pats lose to either the Texans or the Chiefs and the Bills win out, wouldn’t the Bills and Pats both be 13-3, but the Bills would be 10-2 in the conference while the Pats would be 9-3?  The division would be a tie at 5-1, but I thought they would go to afc record before point differential.

 

Not an in-depth post here, but thoughts would be appreciated.

 

Edit:  we would also have home field advantage due to our win over the Ravens.

 

GO BILLS!

Edited by dollars 2 donuts
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billsfan1959
billsfan1959

All I know is that we are going into December, with four games left, and the Bills are only a game and a half behind the Pats***  - with a chance at winning the Division. No matter how unlikely it mig

NoHuddleKelly12
NoHuddleKelly12

Yesterday’s result allows us to daydream in the what ifs, and this is a good one. 

Process
Process

I would say us blowing the browns game will hurt more. 

dollars 2 donuts All Pro

dollars 2 donuts

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3 minutes ago, klumzyfule66 said:

Pats would have to lose vs Cinci or Miami, in addition to us winning out.

 

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

Damn. In other words, Bills are looking like the 5 seed

 

 

Ok, let’s not talk crazy...they could lose to both Texans and Chiefs and we could leap frog them record wise, 13-3 to 12-4.

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billsfan1959 Veteran

billsfan1959

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All I know is that we are going into December, with four games left, and the Bills are only a game and a half behind the Pats***  - with a chance at winning the Division. No matter how unlikely it might be that they win the Division, it is a lot better than where they typically are this time of year...

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BillsFan130 All Pro

BillsFan130

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1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

Ok, let’s not talk crazy...they could lose to both Texans and Chiefs and we could leap frog them record wise, 13-3 to 12-4.

Possible but not likely . And that also is assuming Bills beat Baltimore and win at NE

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dollars 2 donuts All Pro

dollars 2 donuts

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2 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Yesterday’s result allows us to daydream in the what ifs, and this is a good one. :beer:

 

 

You are gorgeous human being whose likeness should be common place on Mount Olympus with the other deities.

 

 

...just a rough estimate on my part.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

Possible but not likely . And that also is assuming Bills beat Baltimore and win at NE

 

 

Yeah, BF, but it is more likely than the suggested losses to Miami and Cincy.

Edited by dollars 2 donuts
Foxx All Pro

Foxx

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NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

 

...To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

  1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
  2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

  1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
  2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in conference games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

...

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snafu Veteran

snafu

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3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

All I know is that we are going into December, with four games left, and the Bills are only a game and a half behind the Pats***  - with a chance at winning the Division. No matter how unlikely it might be that they win the Division, it is a lot better than where they typically are this time of year...

 

For sure!

CBS was showing teams’ seedlings, and when the went to the “still in it” screen I had a good laugh knowing that’s where our team usually is even when we think they’re doing well.

 

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InTheBuffAllTheTime Probation

InTheBuffAllTheTime

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Best possible Bills record is 13-3. Bills need to win-out to take the division unless the Pats have a meltdown (or TB blows knee). Tie-breaker at 13-3 goes to the Pats. (#3 Common Opponents due to Bills losses to PHI and CLE. NE hopeful losses to HOU, KC are not common opponents and they are not plausibly losing to CIN or MIA)

Pats would need to finish no better than 12-4. Best way to those 3 additional losses are against HOU, KC, and BUF.

Edited by ProeBills
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whatdrought All Pro

whatdrought

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I think it's just as likely the Pats lose the next two, as it is that we win out. That being said, for both to happen seems unlikely. I expect us to finish 11-5, but 12 and 4 seems very likely at this point. 

Foxx All Pro

Foxx

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1 minute ago, jav said:

Tiebreakers are:

1)Head-to-head

2)Division record

3)Conference record

4)Common opponents

 

So if Pats lose one AFC game and we win out then we win the division based on tiebreaker #3

it goes to common games before the conference record.

ThurmasThoman RFA

ThurmasThoman

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Posted (edited)

If Buffalo wins out,

and New England wins out with the exception of losses to Buffalo and Miami,

Buffalo would win the division.

 

No other single loss for the Patriots would give Buffalo the tie breaker advantage, so we must finish a game ahead.

 

ASSUMING BUF WINS OUT--New England needs to lose any two of Hou/KC/Cin.. or, again, just lose to the Dolphins. 

 

 

Source: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Edited by JohnnyGold
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