Real McClappy Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: Funny how Mahomies was once all the rage. Now it's these guys. Mahomes is still damn good but that D is something making them look like a pretender. Just now, GunnerBill said: It is amazing you know there were people here who agreed with Rex canning Roman to save his own ass. Should have canned Rex after that week 2 Jets loss. In fact I'd have canned him at the end of the previous season. Or better yet never hired him in the first place. No doubt Gunner! Let's fire our OC after hanging 31pts on the last opponent even though I (Rex) destroyed the Bills D and let them score 34pts. Pegulas should of canned his A$$ then and there.
Big Turk Posted November 27, 2019 Author Posted November 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Real McCoy said: They will try to make him play QB and fail as he can actually rip it anywhere on the field unlike Krappernick and Broken Tyrod. It will also fail because he is the fastest, most athletic player on the field too... 1
Gugny Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: It is amazing you know there were people here who agreed with Rex canning Roman to save his own ass. Should have canned Rex after that week 2 Jets loss. In fact I'd have canned him at the end of the previous season. Or better yet never hired him in the first place. That hire was easily the worst thing the Pegulas have done since owning the team. Hopefully, it remains the worst thing they've ever done for as long as they own the team. 1 2
Nanker Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 29 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: They go for it on fourth a lot ( analytics guy advises Harbaugh) , so that influences the numbers. Still, that’s confirmation that most coaches decide to punt too often.The numbers say trying to keep possession is often more important than a few yards of field position. They're 13 of 17 on 4th down. Their opponents are 5 of 12. The Bills are 4 of 12, our opponents are 6 of 15.
Hebert19 Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 They will punt plenty in a couple weeks. 2 1
MJS Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Real McCoy said: They will try to make him play QB and fail as he can actually rip it anywhere on the field unlike Krappernick and Broken Tyrod. His receivers are schemed open, though. You watch the offense and he is often throwing to wide open receivers. He'll eventually have to go through his progressions and make smart decisions once defenses catch up. Maybe he'll continue to be good. It will be interesting to see. Defenses have begun to catch up to Mahomes and their scheme and they already have caught up with McVay and his scheme. When they catch up to the Ravens they will have to make adjustments. Remember, this is the same Roman scheme that made Kaep look great throwing the football until defenses caught up. Edited November 27, 2019 by MJS 4
Captain_Quint Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 That's a crazy stat but IMO, they will come down to earth eventually. Injuries happen, and they would be a completely different team without Lamar doing what hes doing. They're one ACL tear away from a year to a year and a half of mediocrity. Not wishing that on him, but it's a roll of the dice everytime he takes off (just like Josh).
Boatdrinks Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 35 minutes ago, matter2003 said: The problem with these analytics is they don't account for the very small sample size of a 16 game NFL season. So yes, if you look at the analytics it will show you that it is very advantageous to go for it on 4th down. However, this doesn't mean that if you are expected to make it 60% of the time, you will make it 60% of the time in a season. It means that as you get to 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 times you will trend towards those numbers. When you have 30 or 40 opportunities during a season, you might only make it 20% of the time and end up costing your team a lot of games by doing it as a coach. Then you would get fired and not have a chance to see if it balances out the following year or 2 or 3 years. Much like if you flip a coin 50 times, it is very unlikely you are going to get 25 heads and 25 tails. You might get 40 heads and 10 tails. Does this mean that a chance to get a head or a tail is no longer 50%? No, it just means you had random sample variation in there and that over the course of many coin flips, you will get to 50% eventually. Unfortunately in these situations with their small sample sizes, the analytics people fail to take into account random sample variation and fail to realize that you are not looking at things over a 1,000 size sample, you are looking at it over a 40 size sample during the season, or even a 5 or 6 size sample during the course of the game. Do you want to risk your job hoping that analytics is going to hold true for a 6 size sample? I doubt it. Look, I’m not an analytics expert and not interested in debating its merits. We’ve all seen conservative head coaches who punt from the opponents 39 yard line. I’m certain that using analytics should just be another set of data, not gospel. To me, it’s often just about the value of keeping possession vs changing field position by 20 yards or so. That’s what I mean by the numbers, not all the statistical jargon you’re throwing out there. Suffice it’s to say that most NFL coaches are too conservative, and Harbaugh is thinking outside the box with Jackson and with his offense.
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, MJS said: His receivers are schemed open, though. You watch the offense and he is often throwing to wife open receivers. He'll eventually have to go through his progressions and make smart decisions once defenses catch up. Maybe he'll continue to be good. It will be interesting to see. Defenses have begun to catch up to Mahomes and their scheme and they already have caught up with McVay and his scheme. When they catch up to the Ravens they will have to make adjustments. Remember, this is the same Roman scheme that made Kaep look great throwing the football until defenses caught up. Yes they are college open in many cases. As I've said before, these unstoppable offenses come along every now and then and are all the rage. The 81 Chargers, 88 Bengals, Greatest show on turf, 91 Bills etc. They all get figured out eventually or just out talented. That doesn't mean they become incompetent, people just figure out a way to slow it down and beat it.
Boatdrinks Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, Nanker said: They're 13 of 17 on 4th down. Their opponents are 5 of 12. The Bills are 4 of 12, our opponents are 6 of 15. Interesting stuff. I wonder what their average distance to go is on those 4th down attempts. The Bills have often gone on fourth and short, but lined up in tight formation and ( predictably) ran the ball up the gut. I know Vs LAR the Ravens went for it on 4th and more than just a yard or two. I’m not a fan of overly conservative play calls, so trying not to be biased here. I like the way Harbaugh is coaching that team. 1
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 41 minutes ago, matter2003 said: The problem with these analytics is they don't account for the very small sample size of a 16 game NFL season. So yes, if you look at the analytics it will show you that it is very advantageous to go for it on 4th down. However, this doesn't mean that if you are expected to make it 60% of the time, you will make it 60% of the time in a season. It means that as you get to 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 times you will trend towards those numbers. When you have 30 or 40 opportunities during a season, you might only make it 20% of the time and end up costing your team a lot of games by doing it as a coach. Then you would get fired and not have a chance to see if it balances out the following year or 2 or 3 years. Much like if you flip a coin 50 times, it is very unlikely you are going to get 25 heads and 25 tails. You might get 40 heads and 10 tails. Does this mean that a chance to get a head or a tail is no longer 50%? No, it just means you had random sample variation in there and that over the course of many coin flips, you will get to 50% eventually. Unfortunately in these situations with their small sample sizes, the analytics people fail to take into account random sample variation and fail to realize that you are not looking at things over a 1,000 size sample, you are looking at it over a 40 size sample during the season, or even a 5 or 6 size sample during the course of the game. Do you want to risk your job hoping that analytics is going to hold true for a 6 size sample? I doubt it. Uh that is not entirely correct as I understand it. There are certain sample sizes that become meaningful for different things base on trials. 16 sounds small, but for football it may be sufficiently meaningful. I don't know, but you could test it if you want to. I know that the infamous Tangotiger, has stated that for teams at the MLB level you need to add 70 games 35 wins and 35 losses to a teams record to show you how meaningful it is. Therefore if you're 2-0, you figure it as 37-35, or 0-10 35-45. See you are depending on the regression to tell you how much you know. So after 2 games not so much. After 162 games with 100 wins, you therefore can tell true talent level as 135 W and 97 L, figure the %. In football, he says the number is more like 12 games 6 W 6L. As I stated earlier, I don't know, and you likely don't know, what sample size is needed for 4th down %. But, it could be that it is a small sample size or not. And, it is the number of trials or attempts not games. Usually, the more trial the more accurate, but at a certain level you stop gaining new info. 1 1
MDH Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 1 hour ago, MJS said: Ravens are all the rage. But defenses will catch up with them. We'll see how they adjust. Yeah, I’m wondering if they’ve peaked too early. There always seems to be a team that catches fire in December that goes into the playoffs red hot. Maybe the Ravens continue this right into the playoffs but I doubt it. My guess is Mahommes and the Chiefs get some of that media back by playoff time.
whatdrought Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 How’s many do we have to force to skew their average and make them lose their record? 1
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 2 hours ago, matter2003 said: They played the Patriots already and that didn't turn out well for the Patriots...at all. At least its in buffalo, in december... the great equalizer. The teams that beat them stopped ingram and forced him to pass. Can he do that in the buffalo wind? I dunno... probably. haha
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 ....NEVER thought that Lamar could or would hit this type of stride early on......Ravens vs Niners should be a TRUE test.......their D is formidable....
Scott7975 Posted November 27, 2019 Posted November 27, 2019 So Lamar will be the next Madden Football cover?
RyanC883 Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 7 hours ago, Foxx said: honestly, i thought they were one of the most over rated teams at the beginning of the year. ah well.... same. Jackson was not great last year, esp. passing. This year, his passing has done a total 180, and he can still take off and run when needed. 5 hours ago, dneveu said: At least its in buffalo, in december... the great equalizer. The teams that beat them stopped ingram and forced him to pass. Can he do that in the buffalo wind? I dunno... probably. haha we will be the difference. He's never played the Buffalo 12th man!!!!! 1
aristocrat Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 newton was 15-1 and the panthers were looking like the best ever with the top offense and a top 5 d and they got slaughtered in the superbowl. they're not unstoppable but they are very good and very well coached. you take away the run game of their rbs and limit the huge lamar runs and you have a chance. they set up the pass game with that run game. but that run game is all time
RoboTronic Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 Mike Schopp has been calling for teams to go for it more often on 4th down, having an analytics kid in the ear of a coach all game long, and he said Jackson would be the best of the draft class. Correct on all accounts.
Mr. WEO Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 20 hours ago, MJS said: Ravens are all the rage. But defenses will catch up with them. We'll see how they adjust. When will that happen? The highest scoring team in the NFL has INCREASED its ppg average to 43 over the last 4 games. What are defenses waiting for? More game film?
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