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Posted
2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Actually, they did punt (for the first time in the game) at the end of the game Monday night.

But still, one punt at the end of garbage time doesn't really count.

   

 

But, Lamar was out of the game at that point - so maybe they're only counting possessions when he's in there.

Posted
27 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Ravens have punted only 22 times in 11 games which puts them on pace for 32 punts over a full season. 

 

Pretty unbelievable but they have not punted in their last 24 possessions...

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/11/27/ravens-on-pace-for-the-fewest-punts-ever-in-a-16-game-season/amp/

This actually makes me feel weirdly positive about next week's game. They're due to have a bad game and we're due to get some interceptions. Then again, they're facing one of the two defenses better (statswise) than ours this week.

Posted
4 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

This actually makes me feel weirdly positive about next week's game. They're due to have a bad game and we're due to get some interceptions. Then again, they're facing one of the two defenses better (statswise) than ours this week.

 

They played the Patriots already and that didn't turn out well for the Patriots...at all.

Posted

They go for it on fourth a lot ( analytics guy advises Harbaugh) , so that influences the numbers. Still, that’s confirmation that most coaches decide to punt too often.The numbers say trying to keep possession is often more important than a few yards of field position. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

They go for it on fourth a lot ( analytics guy advises Harbaugh) , so that influences the numbers. Still, that’s confirmation that most coaches decide to punt too often.The numbers say trying to keep possession is often more important than a few yards of field position. 

 

The problem with these analytics is they don't account for the very small sample size of a 16 game NFL season.  So yes, if you look at the analytics it will show you that it is very advantageous to go for it on 4th down. However, this doesn't mean that if you are expected to make it 60% of the time, you will make it 60% of the time in a season.  It means that as you get to 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 times you will trend towards those numbers.  When you have 30 or 40 opportunities during a season, you might only make it 20% of the time and end up costing your team a lot of games by doing it as a coach. Then you would get fired and not have a chance to see if it balances out the following year or 2 or 3 years.

 

Much like if you flip a coin 50 times, it is very unlikely you are going to get 25 heads and 25 tails.  You might get 40 heads and 10 tails.  Does this mean that a chance to get a head or a tail is no longer 50%? No, it just means you had random sample variation in there and that over the course of many coin flips, you will get to 50% eventually. Unfortunately in these situations with their small sample sizes, the analytics people fail to take into account random sample variation and fail to realize that you are not looking at things over a 1,000 size sample, you are looking at it over a 40 size sample during the season, or even a 5 or 6 size sample during the course of the game.  Do you want to risk your job hoping that analytics is going to hold true for a 6 size sample?  I doubt it.

 

 

Edited by matter2003
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Posted
27 minutes ago, wvbillsfan said:

Juggernaut. 
 

Same concepts that Roman had in San Fran and here but Lamar Jackson is the difference 

 

He had varying success with both Kaepernick and Taylor both who produced career years under him. Definitely knows how to work with mobile QB as he is good scheming the run. Will be interesting to see Lamar's development moving forward once teams catch up to them. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

They played the Patriots already and that didn't turn out well for the Patriots...at all.

So, hopefully it's the third time that's the charm (or even better, 2nd AND 3rd). It's kind of funny: we're facing the top offenses the next few weeks, they're facing top defenses. 

Posted
30 minutes ago, MJS said:

Ravens are all the rage. But defenses will catch up with them. We'll see how they adjust.

They will try to make him play QB and fail as he can actually rip it anywhere on the field unlike Krappernick and Broken Tyrod.

Posted
5 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

At least we now know that Rex was right. Roman was the problem.

 

It is amazing you know there were people here who agreed with Rex canning Roman to save his own ass. 

 

Should have canned Rex after that week 2 Jets loss. In fact I'd have canned him at the end of the previous season. Or better yet never hired him in the first place. 

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