Game Plan Against Dallas (#6 Defense, #1 Offense)

[H2o]

Dallas has the #6 defense in the NFL in yards allowed this year. They are 6th against the pass and 15th against the run. This is the 2nd week in a row we have faced a top 6 unit or better. Last week was at home facing the #4 defense and we dominated pretty much all day, but that was with our defense facing an offense ranked in the 20's. This week we are on the road, nationally televised, and not only facing the NFL's 6th ranked defense, but the #1 overall offense in yards per game as well.

 

The #1 key to the game tomorrow, imo, will be time of possession. Last week we ran the ball and controlled the clock, having a 10 minute edge in TOP against the Broncos. We have to establish the run early and be able to sustain drives. Another key tomorrow will be Josh working the seams with the TE, whether it be Knox or Kroft. Personally, I see Knox as more of the matchup nightmare for the Cowboys' LB's and Safeties on the field. They are 24th in the league against TE's, but 2nd against WR's. All of the Cowboys' CB's have good size 6'0" or better who see the field most of the time. We can be effective with Brown and Beasley utilizing their quickness in the short to intermediate areas, but I wouldn't expect any 30-40 yard TD passes this week without a breakdown in coverage. Josh is also going to have to be on his game by not committing TO's, giving Dallas a short field with all of those offensive weapons. Overall I hope we are able to establish the run early so Josh can use play action to work the TE's in the seams and Brown/Beasley underneath, sustaining drives that end in points. If we win the TOP battle and take care of the ball then we should be 9-3 around 7:30-8:00pm tomorrow. 

 

Defensively NE showed the game plan we should follow last week. That game plan being? Take away Amari Cooper. Tre should be shadowing him all game I would expect and is just the man for the job. You take away Cooper and Prescott looks like $20,000,000 Dak versus $40,000,000 Dak. Cooper has been his security blanket since he arrived last year and tends to have big games on the home field. If Tre can neutralize Cooper, I don't expect him to hold him without a catch like Gilmore did, keeping him around 40 yards receiving then things bode well for us. I also expect Johnson to get the start this week over Levi. Dallas' WR's outside of Cooper are too shifty and speedy for the likes of Wallace and hopefully the staff uses him in more of a rotational role this week than anything else. Against the run we just need to not give up the big play. Last week against NE the Cowboys averaged over 4 yards per carry, but NE didn't give up the big play. The longest run allowed was 12 yards. We need a performance like that out of our front 7 against Zeke this week. We also have to get off of the field on 3rd downs. Dallas is converting 3rd Downs at a nearly 50% clip this year. Last week NE held then to 2-13 on 3rd Down conversions. Again, win the TOP by getting their offense off of the field on 3rd down. 

 

From much I have read and seen there is still not much faith in Josh Allen or the Bills even at 8-3. They want to talk about our schedule or a bevy of other things pertaining to the Bills. Dallas is in a must win game. Buffalo is overrated defensively. A lot of them still make vain arguments that Josh is a liability and the Bills are winning in spite of him. Tomorrow can be the day that Buffalo begins to shift the narrative just a bit. This is the biggest game of the year for McDermott, this staff, and our team as a whole. Win this game on the road and on national television to get to 9-3? The confidence level of this team will be through the roof and we are likely a win away from a playoff berth. The stampede could be on. Lose this game in another performance like we had against the Eagles and the same old questions will remain. Hopefully though, tomorrow will be a day for good food, good company, and a Bills W. 

 

 

 

[PatsFanNH]

Last week the weather helped BOTH Defenses in the Dallas/Pats game.  Passing was just very difficult with the wind and the rain made the ball very hard to catch.. there were a lot of dropped balls and balls just thrown poorly on both sides.

 

i agree running is key for the Bills as the Boys been hashed the last few weeks by the run.  I just don’t know the Bills CB well enough to know if they are good enough to cover all 3 WR as well as Elliot out of the backfield.. I will bow to your better knowledge.

 

 

IMO to win the Bills need score 30 points, your D stop the Biys at times but shut them down under 20 is not only unfair it’s not realistic in a dome stadium in Dallas. 

[H2o]

1 minute ago, PatsFanNH said:

Last week the weather helped BOTH Defenses in the Dallas/Pats game.  Passing was just very difficult with the wind and the rain made the ball very hard to catch.. there were a lot of dropped balls and balls just thrown poorly on both sides.

 

i agree running is key for the Bills as the Boys been hashed the last few weeks by the run.  I just don’t know the Bills CB well enough to know if they are good enough to cover all 3 WR as well as Elliot out of the backfield.. I will bow to your better knowledge.

 

 

IMO to win the Bills need score 30 points, your D stop the Biys at times but shut them down under 20 is not only unfair it’s not realistic in a dome stadium in Dallas. 

I think Kevin Johnson and Taron Johnson match up fairly well, better than Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson. I also think that both Kevin and Taron play the run better also. We may have to score 30 to win if we give up big plays, but if we can control the clock and not give up big plays I think that 21-24 will win this game for us. 

[Big Turk]

44 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Last week the weather helped BOTH Defenses in the Dallas/Pats game.  Passing was just very difficult with the wind and the rain made the ball very hard to catch.. there were a lot of dropped balls and balls just thrown poorly on both sides.

 

i agree running is key for the Bills as the Boys been hashed the last few weeks by the run.  I just don’t know the Bills CB well enough to know if they are good enough to cover all 3 WR as well as Elliot out of the backfield.. I will bow to your better knowledge.

 

 

IMO to win the Bills need score 30 points, your D stop the Biys at times but shut them down under 20 is not only unfair it’s not realistic in a dome stadium in Dallas. 

 

Bills have an exceptional run blocking line and the RB's do a good job of finding space and breaking tackles even when there is nothing there. Bills are ranked 3rd in Adjusted Line Yards(4.88), 6th in 2nd Level Yards(1.34), 7th in lowest stuffed percentage in the NFL(18% of runs for no gain or negative yards).  and 12th in Open Field Yards(0.83).  While slightly improved in Power Runs at 50%, they still rank a dreadful 27th.

 

That being said, the Cowboys run blocking is even better and they are in the in the top 3 in stuffed percentage(#1 at 12%), Adjusted Line Yards(#2 at 4.90),  Power success(#3 at 75%) and 2nd level yards(#3 at 1.38). The only poor aspect of their run game is Open Field Yards, where they rank 27th at only 0.44 yards.

 

Dallas also has the #1 rated pass protecting line in the NFL allowing only 12 sacks for a 3.5% adjusted sack rate.  Bills are ranked 19th, with 24 sacks allowed for an effective sack rate of 7.3%.

 

This could be a major issue for the Bills if Dallas can blow us off the ball like Philadelphia did and simply roll up 200+ yards rushing on us like we did to the Broncos. Philadelphia is middle of the pack in rushing stats, ranking between 15-18th in the above categories, except for power, where they lead the NFL with a 78% success rate.

Edited November 27, 2019 by matter2003

[Socal-805]

 

Nice write-up.  Thank you.

 

o  If the Bills win, to me, it would show they are a viable wild-card playoff team and must be respected.

  or

o  Is the Bills lose or get trounced, like by the Eagles, it will show they are not ready and simply benefactors of 

    a weak schedule and favorable match-ups.  They have also been VERY healthy this year I think, and have lost very few starters to IR or starter games lost.

 

We will see:  I'm personally pretty nervous.

 

Go BILLS 

 

 

[Virgil]

I don't know if we hit post at the same time or what, but I didn't see yours.   Mods can merge mine into this

 

 

[Socal-805]

5 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Bills have an exceptional run blocking line and the RB's do a good job of finding space and breaking tackles even when there is nothing there. Bills are ranked 3rd in Adjusted Line Yards(4.88), 6th in 2nd Level Yards(1.34), 7th in lowest stuffed percentage in the NFL(18% of runs for no gain or negative yards).  and 12th in Open Field Yards(0.83).  While slightly improved in Power Runs at 50%, they still rank a dreadful 27th.

 

That being said, the Cowboys run blocking is even better and they are in the in the top 3 in stuffed percentage(#1 at 12%), Adjusted Line Yards(#2 at 4.90),  Power success(#3 at 75%) and 2nd level yards(#3 at 1.38). The only poor aspect of their run game is Open Field Yards, where they rank 27th at only 0.44 yards.

 

Dallas also has the #1 rated pass protecting line in the NFL allowing only 12 sacks for a 3.5% adjusted sack rate.  Bills are ranked 19th, with 24 sacks allowed for an effective sack rate of 7.3%.

 

This could be a major issue for the Bills if Dallas can blow us off the ball like Philadelphia did and simply roll up 200+ yards rushing on us like we did to the Broncos. Philadelphia is middle of the pack in rushing stats, ranking between 15-18th in the above categories, except for power, where they lead the NFL with a 78% success rate.

 

If I read you right, I also think the Dallas O line is going to be dominant.

 

 

[MJS]

Maybe you should have put this in the existing game plan thread.

[H2o]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I don't know if we hit post at the same time or what, but I didn't see yours.   Mods can merge mine into this

 

 

I think we were typing at the same time brother. 

Just now, MJS said:

Maybe you should have put this in the existing game plan thread.

We were typing at the same time I believe and I think I actually posted mine before. No big deal. 

[Foxx]

25 minutes ago, MJS said:

Maybe you should have put this in the existing game plan thread.

 

[H2o]

Time of possession? Bills 33:18, Cowboys 26:42. Turnovers? Bills 0, Cowboys 2. Kevin Johnson played well yesterday. We ran the ball and imposed our will yesterday. Josh took care of the ball yesterday. Cooper had a 8 catches for 85 yards, but nothing terribly meaningful. Beasley destroyed his old team on those intermediate routes yesterday. The guys in the trenches on both sides played like someone had just stole their turkey leg. Buffalo 9-3. Boom baby!!!