Updated NFL QB Rankings, Josh Allen moves up to top end of 2BD poll results

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Last week, I introduced a poll to establish where Josh Allen's performance ranked him among the NFLs current starting QBs. Further, the ELO QB rating system was introduced to many as the basis used for these ratings.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo.Why do this? because all too often we make flip comments, " he's easily one of the worst QBs in the league because..." blah, blah, blah etc. My contribution was to place the QBs in Tiers or clusters if you will of similar ratings. The purpose of doing this was to avoid having to rank 32 guys individually against each other (really hard). It helps to be able to say " yeah he closely fits in objectively  with this group". I also included an easier to read chart and this weeks updates. 2BD fans who participated placed him the # 16-22  tier edging out #12-15 slightly. Overall, about 85% would place him between 12 and 22. Pretty fair. Now ELO isn't perfect, but it does improve upon regular passer rating systems because it includes, running, avoiding sacks, strength of opponent faced, past performance, weighting more recent games higher than older games, and  it properly weights the passing categories. Also, the adjustments made week to week to ELO are not outrageous and in some cases pretty minimal. Without further delay......

 

NOTEs: I included both Matt Stafford and Jeff Driskel this week because it's unclear if MS will play again in 2019. I also left Mason Rudolph in for PITT

 

Key: LW-Last week, CUR- current

 

QB	Tm	LWR	LW-ELO	CWR	CUR-ELO
Mahomes	KC	1	257	1	257
Jackson	BAL	2	251	2	251
Prescott	DAL	3	251	3	242
Brees	NO	7	214	4	224
Cousins	MIN	6	216	5	216
Watson	HOU	9	209	6	209
Wilson	SEA	4	230	7	203
Rodgers	GB	8	210	8	195
Stafford	DET	11	193	9	193
Ryan	ATL	5	218	10	187
J.Allen	BUF	14	177	11	182
Brady	NE	10	196	12	180
Murray	AZ	13	178	13	178
Foles	TB	15	170	14	170
Tannehill	TEN	21	138	15	168
Carr	OAK	12	182	16	166
Wentz	PHI	16	170	17	166
Garappolo	SF	17	156	18	159
Mayfield	CLE	18	146	19	159
Winston	TB	23	131	20	143
Goff	LAR	20	140	21	140
Brissett	IND	19	141	22	137
Rivers	LAC	22	136	23	136
D.Jones	NYG	24	126	24	135
Darnold	NYJ	27	106	25	131
Fitzpatrick	TB	25	123	26	122
Trubisky	CHI	26	110	27	112
Haskins	WAS	28	88	28	80
Driskel	DET			29	71
Rudolph	PIT	29	81	30	60
K.Allen	CAR	31	37	31	54
Finley	CIN	30	47	32	48
B.Allen	DEN	32	35	33	21

 

 

Edited November 25, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Billsfan1972]

Love 538.....  Excited about Josh & the Real Test will be vs. Dallas, which will score points & in desperation mode.

 

Admit saying Real Test is unfair as he's passed everyone to date (except the 300 yard one), but still need to see the Bills offense be able to score when needed in a high scoring game. 

 

Can't see Dallas scoring less then 24 Thursday. 

[BillsDude]

Seems accurate to me. Allen better than Brady now.  Hope Boy wonder retires. He is slipping.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

The next few games will offer Josh a chance to hit the Top 10 ( I'm hoping). It just feels different right now in spite of not throwing for 300 yards.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

On some other QBs:

 

Russell Wilson really surprised me. I saw the drop in his rating and then looked at his stats from  yesterday. 13/25, 6 sacks, 15 yards rushing an interception, 16 QBR.

[bigK14094]

Brady showing a little age.....not sure betting against him is smart yet, however.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

21 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Brady showing a little age.....not sure betting against him is smart yet, however.

Antonio Brown coming soon? Again?

[Billsfan1972]

9 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

The next few games will offer Josh a chance to hit the Top 10 ( I'm hoping). It just feels different right now in spite of not throwing for 300 yards.

I still think it is the conservatism in the offensive structure.  They had a great game running & Defense was very good. 

 

I still am not convinced they can score enough points (unless they play Miami?). 

[Bleedingreennc]

9 hours ago, BillsDude said:

Seems accurate to me. Allen better than Brady now.  Hope Boy wonder retires. He is slipping.

And yet the Pats are 10-1, i would take Brady's play and have that record over the other stats.

[Pokebball]

9 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

On some other QBs:

 

Russell Wilson really surprised me. I saw the drop in his rating and then looked at his stats from  yesterday. 13/25, 6 sacks, 15 yards rushing an interception, 16 QBR.

If I had first pick of a QB, I 'd pick Wilson and I wouldn't even have to think about it.

[Mr. WEO]

Did OP start a new thread to update and discuss his other thread on this topic.

 

pretty sweet

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

9 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Love 538.....  Excited about Josh & the Real Test will be vs. Dallas, which will score points & in desperation mode.

 

Admit saying Real Test is unfair as he's passed everyone to date (except the 300 yard one), but still need to see the Bills offense be able to score when needed in a high scoring game. 

 

Can't see Dallas scoring less then 24 Thursday. 

 

On this defense?

 

Good luck.

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

27 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

If I had first pick of a QB, I 'd pick Wilson and I wouldn't even have to think about it.

You know I can't disagree with this. He may be the MVP right now.

[Mr. WEO]

34 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

If I had first pick of a QB, I 'd pick Wilson and I wouldn't even have to think about it.

could have had him for a 3rd...

[Billsfan1972]

12 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

On this defense?

 

Good luck.

 

They will.....  I know the Bills demolished Denver, but last two on the road were not great defensive performances.  Dallas will be loaded for bear (or Bill) though may too rollover on Garrett.