Boatdrinks Posted November 25, 2019 Posted November 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chandemonium said: Of course it’s sensible to discuss the Steelers, because it’s correct to say that as it sits today that’s the single most important game remaining for our wild card chances. Still, it’s also correct that’s there’s 2 games before that which would make the Steelers game essentially moot if they were both wins. It’s definitely a long shot, but I don’t think the odds are near enough to 0 that it’s not worth discussing. If you figure the Bills have a 30-40% chance in each of the next two games, which I think is reasonable if not a bit conservative, that puts the odds of winning both at 9-16%. It definitely is. So much so that the Bills have scenarios where they can make the playoffs with 9 wins, IF one of the wins is vs the Steelers.
RoboTronic Posted November 25, 2019 Posted November 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: They have, and so would a likely WC opponent, but not by a lot. Aside from the Eagles game ( in unusual weather conditions) that got away from them late, those losses were close and decided by just a few plays that could have gone differently. If the Bills were blown out in all those games, it would be more of an indictment. It could very well be that the Bills need to beat the Steelers on the road and the Jets in week 17 to secure a WC berth. Their stacking of wins vs teams they should beat ( which many past Bills teams didn’t do) gives them that luxury. Many other WC contenders left themselves little room for error. The Bills will have to play above and beyond what they have shown so far this season to win a majority of the remaining 5 and actually do some damage in the playoff's. Certainly possible, but from where I am sitting, one and done seems much more likely.
GaryPinC Posted November 25, 2019 Posted November 25, 2019 7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I agree but I say once more - if we can not defeat a legit top team during the regular season, what is the point of "making the playoffs"? Just so we can say "One and Done"? Nice. The point is that this team continue to develop. Gaining playoff experience is important development. How far has this team advanced game 16 compared to earlier losses? I was at the Buf/Cleveland game. Allen seems to do decently reading the defense pre-snap but was very inconsistent going through his reads and understanding the design of the playcall (who would be open where). All that he's working on. What if he turns the corner last game of the season? What if the importance of the playoffs help him turn the corner, even in a loss? Our Bills are a solid team, but not elite. I'd rather have us lose to elite in the playoffs then sit at home watching someone else.
Boatdrinks Posted November 25, 2019 Posted November 25, 2019 1 minute ago, RoboTronic said: The Bills will have to play above and beyond what they have shown so far this season to win a majority of the remaining 5 and actually do some damage in the playoff's. Certainly possible, but from where I am sitting, one and done seems much more likely. Maybe , but maybe not. Other teams falter as well, even in the playoffs. How does New Orleans lose to Atlanta, and beat the Panthers by the skin of their teeth ? While not the most likely outcome, it’s more than just a slight possibility. That’s the beauty of the NFL and sports - and the biggest reason we watch ; the likely result doesn’t happen all the time. 1 1
Chicken Boo Posted November 25, 2019 Posted November 25, 2019 I actually think it's the Jets. Forget the record, they have a very good offense on paper and they are getting better every week. Gase can work with talent and the Jets' O isn't short on that.
RoboTronic Posted November 25, 2019 Posted November 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said: Maybe , but maybe not. Other teams falter as well, even in the playoffs. How does New Orleans lose to Atlanta, and beat the Panthers by the skin of their teeth ? While not the most likely outcome, it’s more than just a slight possibility. That’s the beauty of the NFL and sports - and the biggest reason we watch ; the likely result doesn’t happen all the time. Yep, the NFL feels unique in this way, I think that's why I can follow it vs. other sports where there are 80+ games. 2
SoCal Deek Posted November 25, 2019 Posted November 25, 2019 What’s been overlooked in the standard lazy line about the weakness of the Bills schedule is that if you were to have swapped in a couple of better teams into the schedule, and if they had lost them both, they would STILL be a playoff contender right now. It’s now eleven games into the season and the Bills have cleared the field by two full games. 1
No_Matter_What Posted November 25, 2019 Posted November 25, 2019 My prediction is that we will win one of next two (Cowboys/Ravens, no clue which one) and then we will actually clinch PO by beating Steelers on the road. It will change the whole narrative about Bills since all season long it was about easy schedule and nobody really believing that we are even making playoffs. And suddenly we will be in 2 games before season is over and everybody will say how unfortunate we are to be still destined to 5th seed behind Pats. And then we will travel to Houston for first playoff win in 24 years. 1 1
noacls Posted November 25, 2019 Posted November 25, 2019 Season comes down to the Steelers and Jets. Win those that are in. Steelers scare me though. Still have flashbacks of Steelers J.V. team beating the Bills 04 to knock them out of the playoffs. Even the good Super Bowl teams had trouble winning at Pit.
JM57 Posted November 26, 2019 Posted November 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said: I actually think it's the Jets. Forget the record, they have a very good offense on paper and they are getting better every week. Gase can work with talent and the Jets' O isn't short on that. Playoff leverage wise, it's the Steelers game. If the Bills went 1-4 down the stretch with the win coming against the Steelers, they still have a 78% chance to make the playoffs at 9-7. If the win is against the Jets, it's 57%. If it's the Ravens, 53%. Patriots, 52%. Cowboys, 37%. Obviously I want to see them at 10-6 (or better) but knowing that 10-6 with wins over the Steelers and Jets is a 99% chance for a playoff spot is good enough to make that the goal I want them to hit. I assume the 1% there would be some scenario where there's a multi-team tie and the Browns somehow make it to 10-6 and get over the Bills on conference record but it's just so unlikely I don't worry about that
3rdand12 Posted November 26, 2019 Posted November 26, 2019 8 hours ago, matter2003 said: I don't know man...Cowboys are coming home on Thanksgiving after laying an egg against the Patriots with the owner blasting the coaching staff...with the #1 offense in the NFL and a pretty good D? I think this could have blowout loss written all over it for the Bills. I do think if the Bills keep it close they win the game. I believe that McD is a better coach than Garrett but Dallas should win this game. go stuff acorns 8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: It will be interesting to see what McD comes up with against the Ravens. Toughest game on the schedule IMO. probably should play them like PS plays Josh lol
3rdand12 Posted November 26, 2019 Posted November 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Logic said: Personally I won't be upset if the Bills DO go one-and-done. I mean, I would obviously rather that they win a playoff game, but.... Getting some experience in a playoff game would be huge for all the youngsters on the Bills squad. It would be a wonderful stepping stone on the path to sustained success that they're building. Furthermore, it would instill confidence in the team that they are capable of making the playoffs, and a simple thing like confidence can do wonders in the seasons to come. I want to see how they finish the season. Each game has been big for them, and now they get even bigger. Are Bills up for it? If Bills are trending up, and seem pretty healthy McB might have something. One and done is never a goal. But you have to get in to advance. Lets see how we look down this tough stretch. Go Bills
Real McClappy Posted November 26, 2019 Posted November 26, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, RoboTronic said: The Bills will have to play above and beyond what they have shown so far this season to win a majority of the remaining 5 and actually do some damage in the playoff's. Certainly possible, but from where I am sitting, one and done seems much more likely. "One and done" is complete rubbish. The year we sneaked into the playoffs we had a chance with one of the worst O's I seen against the Jags whom almost took the Pats out in the AFC championship game. If this team today played that same Jags team in the 2017-2018 playoffs, I can almost guarantee with our current D and O we don't lose 10-3. This O and D are both better units overall. Think about that for a minute before you keep jibba jabbing your talent BS in every other thread. This squad plays as a high level team which I don't think you understand yet how important that is when reading numerous comments by yourself. Edited November 26, 2019 by Real McCoy
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