Bills have tie breakers over Colts and Raiders

[Bobby Hooks]

9 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Yeah, I get the premise, and it’s not a bad thing to point out. Just seems early to be playing the tie-breaker game already. 

First off, not quite sure you did understand the premise. Seems to me you reacted without fully understanding what was written and are now trying to back out of it. 

 

With that said, if we do take your back out attempt at face value, i think you're 100% wrong. I think an interesting point is interesting at any time. 

 

Of course i'm one of those crazy people that enjoys knowledge. I understand that's not always typical. 

 

Thanks for the interesting tidbit OP, it certainly adds a bit more weight to the game. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Bobby Hooks

[msw2112]

We've hit the point in the season where all of the NFL broadcasts are now showing the "playoff picture" during each game.  There are only 6 games left.  It is not too early to talk about tie-breakers, whether we control our own destiny or not.  In fact, earning a tie-breaker is a further step in controlling our own destiny.  I was not aware of the potential good news of a win this weekend impacting our tie-breaker status against one of the teams we are competing with, so I;m glad to now this now.  Thumbs up on the post! 

 

Now let's focus on beating Denver.  With a challenging upcoming schedule, we need every win we can squeeze out.  As others have said, the Pittsburgh game may turn out to be a "play in" game for us.  If we can beat Denver, the Jests, and Pittsburgh, I believe we are in.  If we lose to Pittsburgh, a lot of things would have to go our way for us to get in.

[Say When...]

42 minutes ago, Bobby Hooks said:

First off, not quite sure you did understand the premise. Seems to me you reacted without fully understanding what was written and are now trying to back out of it. 

 

With that said, if we do take your back out attempt at face value, i think you're 100% wrong. I think an interesting point is interesting at any time. 

 

Of course i'm one of those crazy people that enjoys knowledge. I understand that's not always typical. 

 

Thanks for the interesting tidbit OP, it certainly adds a bit more weight to the game. 

 

[wagon127]

I worry about tie breakers when its week 16 or 17, and the bills are either tied with somebody, or likely to be tied with somebody. Its week 12, lets just think about how the texans and colts both play each other this week, which will drop one of them to 6-5. And how do the bills offense score against the broncos defense?

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, Bobby Hooks said:

First off, not quite sure you did understand the premise. Seems to me you reacted without fully understanding what was written and are now trying to back out of it. 

 

With that said, if we do take your back out attempt at face value, i think you're 100% wrong. I think an interesting point is interesting at any time. 

 

Of course i'm one of those crazy people that enjoys knowledge. I understand that's not always typical. 

 

Thanks for the interesting tidbit OP, it certainly adds a bit more weight to the game. 

 

No, I did understand the premise and I wasn’t walking back anything. I was speaking out against the poverty mindset around here that we’re gonna need all the help we can get to get into the playoffs- and this has been decided in week 11. We have a lot of season left and we’re 100% in control of our playoff odds right now. We as bills fans can’t enjoy that. So while it’s fine to talk tie breakers, and it doesn’t hurt to have that perspective on this game, it’s also not crazy to say that right now we have the only tie-breaker that matters... the most wins. Until that changes, common wins don’t matter. 

[Magox]

Good to know!  Colts are one of the main teams that the Bills would be competing with for a wild card birth.   

[4merper4mer]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

How does it work with the Dolphins? We played them twice and the Colts only once - so in the common games record do we get credit for both wins? 

 

Having the tiebreaker over the Colts is important in my opinion. I still think the Texans ultimately win the South and the two spots come down to the Bills, Raiders and Colts. 

I think both count as do both Colts/Tenn games.

 

It doesn't really matter because it doesn't get to common opponents until after the conference record tiebreaker is over.  We are 2-1 with Dallas still pending.  The Colts are 1-0 having beaten Atl.  They still play NO, TB, and CAR.  If we beat Dallas and Indy loses to NO and TB but beats CAR for example, then the common opponents thing kicks in.  If we were to lose at Dallas, Indy would have to lose all 3 to beat us in the tiebreaker or lose 2 to tie us.  Winning all three would screw them.

[Bobby Hooks]

57 minutes ago, Say When... said:

 

 

passive aggressive? is this something you've just recently heard about and are trying to use it (incorrectly) in internet land? 

 

that was straight up aggressive aggressive. unless you're one of those types that only consider name-calling, and  cuss words usage aggressive. i don't conduct myself in that type of low-brow tomfoolery. 

 

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Bobby Hooks

[Jamie Nails]

5 hours ago, ALLEN1QB said:

IF a frog's butt did not hit the ground when he hopped he would fly

 

I was born in Kowloon Bay! 

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think both count as do both Colts/Tenn games.

 

It doesn't really matter because it doesn't get to common opponents until after the conference record tiebreaker is over.  We are 2-1 with Dallas still pending.  The Colts are 1-0 having beaten Atl.  They still play NO, TB, and CAR.  If we beat Dallas and Indy loses to NO and TB but beats CAR for example, then the common opponents thing kicks in.  If we were to lose at Dallas, Indy would have to lose all 3 to beat us in the tiebreaker or lose 2 to tie us.  Winning all three would screw them.

 

I worked it out after. If we beat Devner and the Jets and they lose Thursday night to Houston (or in fact any of their remaining AFC games) there is no way that in a two team tiebreaker the Colts could hold an advantage over us. The Bills with those two wins would be at worst 7-5 in conference. With one more AFC loss that is the best the Colts could finish and then you are onto common opponents where we have them beat. The bigger risks for me at the moment are either the Colts and Raiders both winning 10 and us only getting to 9 (possible I think) or a 3 way tiebreaker between the Bills, Raiders and Colts. In a 3 way tiebreaker it is win % in common games. So the only common opponents that all 3 have played are Tennessee and Denver. Currently in those games:

 

Bills are 1-0 with 1 to play (vs Denver)

Colts are 2-0 with 1 to play (vs Tennessee)

Raiders are 1-0 with 2 to play (vs Denver and @ Tennessee)

 

If that tiebreaker is equal then it goes to conference record (so other way round compared to a two team tiebreak) and at the moment the Bills are 5-2, the Colts are 5-4, the Raiders are 4-2. In that scenario we need one of the other two to finish with only 6 AFC wins. There is no way for the Raiders to get to 9-7 without getting to at least 7 AFC wins because their NFC slate is done. So realistically we need the Colts to lose two in the conference. After that it goes to strength of victory and then strength of schedule and if our only two remaining wins are Denver and the Jets that basically is us done.

 

You might be thinking "ah but the Colts could win and go on to win the division leaving Houston in the wildcard race." And that is true, they could. But that is not great for us either the Texans are 4-2 in conference as well. So it is highly preferable for the Bills that it is Indy who end up in the wildcard race because they already have FOUR AFC losses on their record (Chargers, Raiders, Steelers, Dolphins). One more is probably curtains for them so long as the Bills don't blow it against Denver or the Jets.

 

Conclusion? It is really important the Texans beat the Colts tomorrow night if we are in a tiebreaker situation. If they don't then I think we need 10 wins to have any level of comfort.

 

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by GunnerBill

[Chandler#81]

In short, Conference games are important.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

15 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Yeah, I get the premise, and it’s not a bad thing to point out. Just seems early to be playing the tie-breaker game already. 

 

15 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

way too early...

 

 

Then get outta here!

 

BTW I'm pretty sure you DIDN'T get the premise and this is a cover up. It's ok we all have our moments.

 

 

[whatdrought]

4 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

 

Then get outta here!

 

BTW I'm pretty sure you DIDN'T get the premise and this is a cover up. It's ok we all have our moments.

 

 

 

Well, you're wrong.

 

You do have plenty of moments, but it seems like your medication is helping that some... ?

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I worked it out after. If we beat Devner and the Jets and they lose Thursday night to Houston (or in fact any of their remaining AFC games) there is no way that in a two team tiebreaker the Colts could hold an advantage over us. The Bills with those two wins would be at worst 7-5 in conference. With one more AFC loss that is the best the Colts could finish and then you are onto common opponents where we have them beat. The bigger risks for me at the moment are either the Colts and Raiders both winning 10 and us only getting to 9 (possible I think) or a 3 way tiebreaker between the Bills, Raiders and Colts. In a 3 way tiebreaker it is win % in common games. So the only common opponents that all 3 have played are Tennessee and Denver. Currently in those games:

 

Bills are 1-0 with 1 to play (vs Denver)

Colts are 2-0 with 1 to play (vs Tennessee)

Raiders are 1-0 with 2 to play (vs Denver and @ Tennessee)

 

If that tiebreaker is equal then it goes to conference record (so other way round compared to a two team tiebreak) and at the moment the Bills are 5-2, the Colts are 5-4, the Raiders are 4-2. In that scenario we need one of the other two to finish with only 6 AFC wins. There is no way for the Raiders to get to 9-7 without getting to at least 7 AFC wins because their NFC slate is done. So realistically we need the Colts to lose two in the conference. After that it goes to strength of victory and then strength of schedule and if our only two remaining wins are Denver and the Jets that basically is us done.

 

You might be thinking "ah but the Colts could win and go on to win the division leaving Houston in the wildcard race." And that is true, they could. But that is not great for us either the Texans are 4-2 in conference as well. So it is highly preferable for the Bills that it is Indy who end up in the wildcard race because they already have FOUR AFC losses on their record (Chargers, Raiders, Steelers, Dolphins). One more is probably curtains for them so long as the Bills don't blow it against Denver or the Jets.

 

Conclusion? It is really important the Texans beat the Colts tomorrow night if we are in a tiebreaker situation. If they don't then I think we need 10 wins to have any level of comfort.

 

 

This is just great stuff

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is just great stuff

 

I am not just procrastinating to avoid filling out a job application...... honestly!

[Tuco]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I worked it out after. If we beat Devner and the Jets and they lose Thursday night to Houston (or in fact any of their remaining AFC games) there is no way that in a two team tiebreaker the Colts could hold an advantage over us. The Bills with those two wins would be at worst 7-5 in conference. With one more AFC loss that is the best the Colts could finish and then you are onto common opponents where we have them beat. The bigger risks for me at the moment are either the Colts and Raiders both winning 10 and us only getting to 9 (possible I think) or a 3 way tiebreaker between the Bills, Raiders and Colts. In a 3 way tiebreaker it is win % in common games. So the only common opponents that all 3 have played are Tennessee and Denver. Currently in those games:

 

Bills are 1-0 with 1 to play (vs Denver)

Colts are 2-0 with 1 to play (vs Tennessee)

Raiders are 1-0 with 2 to play (vs Denver and @ Tennessee)

 

If that tiebreaker is equal then it goes to conference record (so other way round compared to a two team tiebreak) and at the moment the Bills are 5-2, the Colts are 5-4, the Raiders are 4-2. In that scenario we need one of the other two to finish with only 6 AFC wins. There is no way for the Raiders to get to 9-7 without getting to at least 7 AFC wins because their NFC slate is done. So realistically we need the Colts to lose two in the conference. After that it goes to strength of victory and then strength of schedule and if our only two remaining wins are Denver and the Jets that basically is us done.

 

You might be thinking "ah but the Colts could win and go on to win the division leaving Houston in the wildcard race." And that is true, they could. But that is not great for us either the Texans are 4-2 in conference as well. So it is highly preferable for the Bills that it is Indy who end up in the wildcard race because they already have FOUR AFC losses on their record (Chargers, Raiders, Steelers, Dolphins). One more is probably curtains for them so long as the Bills don't blow it against Denver or the Jets.

 

Conclusion? It is really important the Texans beat the Colts tomorrow night if we are in a tiebreaker situation. If they don't then I think we need 10 wins to have any level of comfort.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for explaining and writing this up.

 

Now, when it comes to wild card tie breaking, conference record comes before common games. So yeah, let's beat Denver.

 

Also, common games only applies if all teams have a minimum of 4 common games among them. So that step wouldn't apply in the 3 team scenario.

 

The next step would be strength of victory.  We suck at that. So I suppose, if we're concerned with a tiebreaker, we need the Bengals and Jets and Dolphins and every other team we've beaten to start winning.

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Tuco said:

 

 

Thanks for explaining and writing this up.

 

Now, when it comes to wild card tie breaking, conference record comes before common games. So yeah, let's beat Denver.

 

Also, common games only applies if all teams have a minimum of 4 common games among them. So that step wouldn't apply in the 3 team scenario.

 

The next step would be strength of victory.  We suck at that. So I suppose, if we're concerned with a tiebreaker, we need the Bengals and Jets and Dolphins and every other team we've beaten to start winning.

 

 

Ah you are right on common games. Thanks. Missed that. So ignore that step. It is just conference record and then strength if victory. Think it still comes down to we want Houston to win that division and subject Indianapolis to the conference record tiebreaker where they are one loss away from real trouble. 

[Tuco]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ah you are right on common games. Thanks. Missed that. So ignore that step. It is just conference record and then strength if victory. Think it still comes down to we want Houston to win that division and subject Indianapolis to the conference record tiebreaker where they are one loss away from real trouble. 

 

Actually, the common games could still be in play in a 3 way. If 2 teams have a 7-5 conference record and 1 team is 6-6, the 6-6 team is eliminated and the other 2 teams would then have 4 games in common.

[leonbus23]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I worked it out after. If we beat Devner and the Jets and they lose Thursday night to Houston (or in fact any of their remaining AFC games) there is no way that in a two team tiebreaker the Colts could hold an advantage over us. The Bills with those two wins would be at worst 7-5 in conference. With one more AFC loss that is the best the Colts could finish and then you are onto common opponents where we have them beat. The bigger risks for me at the moment are either the Colts and Raiders both winning 10 and us only getting to 9 (possible I think) or a 3 way tiebreaker between the Bills, Raiders and Colts. In a 3 way tiebreaker it is win % in common games. So the only common opponents that all 3 have played are Tennessee and Denver. Currently in those games:

 

Bills are 1-0 with 1 to play (vs Denver)

Colts are 2-0 with 1 to play (vs Tennessee)

Raiders are 1-0 with 2 to play (vs Denver and @ Tennessee)

 

If that tiebreaker is equal then it goes to conference record (so other way round compared to a two team tiebreak) and at the moment the Bills are 5-2, the Colts are 5-4, the Raiders are 4-2. In that scenario we need one of the other two to finish with only 6 AFC wins. There is no way for the Raiders to get to 9-7 without getting to at least 7 AFC wins because their NFC slate is done. So realistically we need the Colts to lose two in the conference. After that it goes to strength of victory and then strength of schedule and if our only two remaining wins are Denver and the Jets that basically is us done.

 

You might be thinking "ah but the Colts could win and go on to win the division leaving Houston in the wildcard race." And that is true, they could. But that is not great for us either the Texans are 4-2 in conference as well. So it is highly preferable for the Bills that it is Indy who end up in the wildcard race because they already have FOUR AFC losses on their record (Chargers, Raiders, Steelers, Dolphins). One more is probably curtains for them so long as the Bills don't blow it against Denver or the Jets.

 

Conclusion? It is really important the Texans beat the Colts tomorrow night if we are in a tiebreaker situation. If they don't then I think we need 10 wins to have any level of comfort.

 

 

It's too early to discuss this!

Edited November 21, 2019 by leonbus23

[Stallions]

18 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Beating Denver and getting to 8-3 is huge. Do we get to 8 wins Sunday?

Agree and Houston vs. Indy will play at big part for WC teams in the AFC.