revisiting 2018 draft possibilities. Did we overpay?

[JMF2006]

I am fine with how it worked out.

 

Josh, Edmunds and Phillips are all studs.

 

Neal is pretty good too

Edited November 19, 2019 by JMF2006
Neal

[atlbillsfan1975]

59 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Can’t you say the same for Allen though? In fact, Allen has missed more games than Jackson in his career.  But it’s way to early for this though. 
 

but it’s not too early to say how terrible trading up for Zay and not staying put and taking JuJu or Kupp was! ?

You really think Bills fans are the only ones to do this? 

Zay trade was on Whaley. Glad he is gone. 

[Philo]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

Here's how I think we need to look at it. If Josh becomes a 10-15 year franchise guy then it was worth it. If not, then no. Lamar is going to give you 5-8 years playing this style. That's why he fell. If your argument is no one saw this coming from him then I call BS. He was electric in college and won the Heisman. It seemed pretty clear at the time you could build your offense around his skill set and win right away in this modern NFL where you can't hit people.   

 

We picked Josh for the long-term upside. The issue is most guys who don't show glimpses of being a franchise QB within the first two years rarely ever get there. Hopefully Josh can buck the trend.

 

Are you implying Josh has not shown a single glimpse of being a franchise QB? ?

 

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You really think Bills fans are the only ones to do this? 

 

He said more...as in more than fans of other teams. 

[John from Riverside]

We were not the only team in on Allen

 

There will ALWAYS be players we "could have had" when it comes to the draft

[Mike in Horseheads]

2 hours ago, r00tabaga said:

We suck.

I want Russ Brandon back.

 

I wish I could revisit the 2002 dating scene. I should have married Amanda instead of Amy.

Amanda is hot?

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Amanda is hot?

Amanda’s are way hotter than Amy’s.  It’s science. 

[VW82]

14 minutes ago, Philo said:

 

Are you implying Josh has not shown a single glimpse of being a franchise QB? ?

 

 

Not of being a franchise guy no. Those guys typically have multiple games where they pass for 300+ yards on good efficiency, and their offenses are usually in the top half of the league (top 10 for the best ones) barring extreme circumstances where there's little to no talent around them. That's not us. 

 

Josh has shown glimpses that he can become a good QB IMO, not a great one. Right now he's still arguably below average. I think most non-Bills fans would still have him out of the top 20.  

Edited November 19, 2019 by VW82

[FLFan]

This is the worst kind of kind of hindsight and backwards analysis and is really not credible.  There is not even any point trying to refute it, but I will say this: When it comes to QB, make your analysis, decide on who you want, and do whatever is necessary to get that player.  Nothing else makes sense.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

32 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Amanda’s are way hotter than Amy’s.  It’s science. 

 

I'm not so sure. Knew a couple REALLY hot amys in high school. ?

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

No one should ever trade up, unless you going to get a blue chip franchise QB at the top of the draft.

 

That's my rule at least.

 

McBeane love to trade up all the time and have been burned by it.

 

 

 

Thats not exactly accurate b/c although Beane wasn’t officially on the staff, Whaley had nothing to do with trading back, passing on Maholmes, and getting Treh White at 28.  Beane you know was consult d by McD the whole way.

 

He moves around sometimes up and sometimes down.  It’s easy to play hindsight about guys like Maholmes, Wilson for that matter, and Jackson.  I think Josh will grow into a long term franchise QB, and Jackson may work out, or he could end up like Cam, getting slammed for too much rushing.  I’m not saying it will happen and yes Allen rushes as well, but he is pretty smart about it, and sliding a lot more this year and also much larger even though athletic than Jackson.

[Philo]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

Not of being a franchise guy no. Those guys typically have multiple games where they pass for 300+ yards on good efficiency, and their offenses are usually in the top half of the league (top 10 for the best ones) barring extreme circumstances where there's little to no talent around them. That's not us. 

 

Josh has shown glimpses that he can become a good QB IMO, not a great one. Right now he's still arguably below average. I think most non-Bills fans would still have him out of the top 20.  

 

Didn't we replace virtually the entire offense around him this year? What does that say about the talent around him for the first season of his career? Would that qualify as extreme circumstances to you?

 

Also, I'm digging the tired old 300 yards argument as a top qualifier. I'll take his stack of impressive 4th quarter performances any day of the week and twice on Sunday. He has absolutely shown the ability. He is still learning consistency, as is the rest of the offense around him.

 

I don't mean to bash your entire post, because saying that most non Bills fans would likely keep him out of their top 20 QBs right now is an arguable point, but to say he has not shown glimpses of being the guy is completely disingenuous IMO.

[LABILLBACKER]

5 years from now Lamar Jackson will turn out just like RG3, Cam Newton and other mobile qbs who were eventually forced to be pocket passers. Right now he may be breaking ankles but eventually he'll be the one breaking down.  I'll take my chances with Josh.

[Albany,n.y.]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

I love Josh, and I'm happy he is the Bills QB.  That being said, me, and several others lobbied to hold onto all our draft picks, trade back if anything, and stand pat and draft Lamar Jackson.  We got ridiculed by many.

 

Alphadawg created a whole thread, The Case For Lamar Jackson.

 

Let the record state on 3/28/18- I am extremely against trading up into top 6 for QB- and massively overpaying.  The opportunity cost of squandering picks 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 and a 2019 1st(which will be a high draft pick if we sacrifice drafts for a rookie QB).  Impact players that the Bills could miss out on(and whom would instantly upgrade Bills starters) include:

Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea, Tremaine Edmunds, Isiah Wynn, Will Hernandez, Billy Price, Frank Ragnow, Denzel Ward, Lamar Jackson, Ronald Jones, Guice,  Vander Esch, James Washington, Cortland Sutton, Mike Hughes, Nick Chubb, Marcus Davenport, Mata’afa, Rashan Evans, Taven Bryan, Harrison Phillips, Josh Jackson, Christian Kirk, Hayden Hurst, Payne, Equanemius, Baker, Sam Hubbard, Ballage, etc.

 

Imagine if we stayed pat(or even better traded back)- the depth we would have on this team. Moral of the story- don't trade up, keep your picks,stockpile draft picks, let the board come to you

 

 

 

We could have 7 of the above and all our draft picks.  Or we can risk it all on a QB ad give all that up.

Please revisit and either give me **** or give me props.  Peace out

Here's the problem, neither you or Alphadawg are employed by the Bills.  The real employees had a list of their top 6 QBs (as leaked with photos of their board before the draft) and Jackson wasn't on that list.  They had the QBs rated in order, Allen, Darnold, & Mayfield=they were willing to trade up as high as 5 if any of those 3 were available.  After that the remaining 3, in order were Rosen, Rudolph & Lauletta-NO JACKSON.  So the whole premise that we could have stood pat & taken Jackson without trading up doesn't work because they would have taken either Rosen (who is looking like the bust of that QB class) or Rudolph, who isn't exactly lighting things up in Pittsburgh.    

 

I'd rather have traded up for Allen than be stuck with bust Rosen or mediocre Rudolph, or worse yet, Lauletta who got cut after 1 season with the NYG.  Any way you look at it, the Bills were never drafting Jackson, no matter what your opinion was before the draft.  You can only be critical of the team not drafting a player they were interested in.  The Bills scouts never liked Jackson.  Over the years there are a lot of pre-draft posts about players the poster wants the Bills to draft.  When one plays better than the player the team the poster posts something similar to what you've done, however if the team didn't like the player to begin with, your whole point is moot.  

[Scott7975]

19/28 161 yards 1TD 3INTs but they won

9/20 143 yards 0 0 but they won

17/23 163 yards 1TD but they won

 

Allen gets crucified win or lose for these stats.  The owner of those stats gets called an MVP candidate.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Scott7975

[VW82]

7 minutes ago, Philo said:

 

Didn't we replace virtually the entire offense around him this year? What does that say about the talent around him for the first season of his career? Would that qualify as extreme circumstances to you?

 

Also, I'm digging the tired old 300 yards argument as a top qualifier. I'll take his stack of impressive 4th quarter performances any day of the week and twice on Sunday. He has absolutely shown the ability. He is still learning consistency, as is the rest of the offense around him.

 

I don't mean to bash your entire post, because saying that most non Bills fans would likely keep him out of their top 20 QBs right now is an arguable point, but to say he has not shown glimpses of being the guy is completely disingenuous IMO.

 

We did replace everyone around him and yet we're still one of the bottom offenses in the NFL this year (and mostly because of the passing game) despite playing one of the weakest opponent schedules in recent memory. I guess I'm not sure what qualifies as glimpses. It can't all be 4th quarter heroics.

 

The impression I get from reading this forum is many Bills fans are convinced Allen's already shown he can be a franchise guy. I think there's some natural bias there. It doesn't feel like he's getting that treatment from opposing fan bases. For context, I don't think very many NFL fans are sold that Baker or Darnold or Rosen are going to be franchise guys either. Most would take Lamar as a franchise guy within the right offense, but only for the next 3-5 years given his style of play. It feels like all the 2018 guys are still in wait and see mode.   

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

Not of being a franchise guy no. Those guys typically have multiple games where they pass for 300+ yards on good efficiency, and their offenses are usually in the top half of the league (top 10 for the best ones) barring extreme circumstances where there's little to no talent around them. That's not us. 

 

Josh has shown glimpses that he can become a good QB IMO, not a great one. Right now he's still arguably below average. I think most non-Bills fans would still have him out of the top 20.  

that's nothing more than your opinion. I think we can all agree Allen has shown marked improvement across a number of categories from year 1 to now. Not bad for a kid who went to that high-octane program at Wyoming ......?

[VW82]

1 minute ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

that's nothing more than your opinion. I think we can all agree Allen has shown marked improvement across a number of categories from year 1 to now. Not bad for a kid who went to that high-octane program at Wyoming ......?

 

It's the combined opinion of other NFL fans I've talked to who follow it closely, plus the opinions of people covering the league on podcasts, who write about it, etc. Plus he's outside the top 20 in most of the main QB statistical categories: 26th in passing YPG, 26th in QBR, 23rd in QB rating, etc. 

 

I think pretty much everyone agrees he's improved from the start of 2018 to now.  

[Orlando Buffalo]

4 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Let’s revisit this in 5 years. The style of quarterback Lamar plays has shown it doesn’t have a long shelf life. 

I do right now think he is different because he does not take direct hits- at least the times I have seen him play- so he might last longer than expected.

[Philo]

10 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

We did replace everyone around him and yet we're still one of the bottom offenses in the NFL this year (and mostly because of the passing game) despite playing one of the weakest opponent schedules in recent memory. I guess I'm not sure what qualifies as glimpses. It can't all be 4th quarter heroics.

 

The impression I get from reading this forum is many Bills fans are convinced Allen's already shown he can be a franchise guy. I think there's some natural bias there. It doesn't feel like he's getting that treatment from opposing fan bases. For context, I don't think very many NFL fans are sold that Baker or Darnold or Rosen are going to be franchise guys either. Most would take Lamar as a franchise guy within the right offense, but only for the next 3-5 years given his style of play. It feels like all the 2018 guys are still in wait and see mode.   

 

How do we not expect growing pains when this is done? I have definitely seen strides in Josh's game since the beginning of this season, not to mention his strides last season with a less talented group. The offense is getting there.

 

Yes, exactly. They are ALL still in wait and see mode. I just take issue with you claiming Josh has not shown a single glimpse in his career thus far.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Trading away the chance to pick Mahomes in 2017 looks like the biggest draft gaffe in team history.

 

But going up to get Allen was a sound move (and man were they lucky to get a second shot at a potential franchise QB the next year....and I'd rather be lucky than good).

 

The idea that trading up is somehow inherently bad business is just ignorance.

 

Giants traded up for Eli........and the picks they gave up netted a future HOF QB and a DPOY.....should've killed them........but instead the Giants won 2 SB's.

 

Bills didn't trade up for Big Ben.......saved draft capital.........got 15 more years out of contention.

 

Goes for WR's too.........Falcons traded a ransom to move up for Julio Jones and killed the Browns in that deal.

 

Lot's of trade ups turn out one-sided for the team that traded up.