Week 12: Broncos at Bills

[Warcodered]

 

[entropyrules]

Its all about the D..in the three games the Bills lost they faced some pretty good defenses who closed down the Bills' offense (of course the Bills did some interesting things such as blocked punt for a TD, fumbles at critical times in the games, etc..).

 

Denver has a really good D and if the Bills O is to show they really can beat a team with a good D this is the opportunity. Their QB is better than I thought he would be but it all comes down to Denver's D and the whether the Bills' O can control the ball, move down the field and score or simply implode at every inopportune moment..

 

Close one but Bills prevail 20-17

[dave mcbride]

13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Aren't they 20th in pass YPG allowed? I admit that I only looked quickly, and like I said I think the Miami-sucks point is valid. I also think that all too often hyperbole overtakes context.

 

EDIT: just looked. 20th in pass YPG, 26th in YPA allowed.

 

Bad, but not all-time bad 

I focus on collective passer rating given that team passer rating differential is the best statistical predictor of success/failure in the NFL. YPG doesn't matter much when you're down by 20 and the team is running it all the time to milk the clock.  Having said that, Cincy and AZ are worse (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating), although Miami's schedule is much easier than theirs.

 

They are 30th in pass defense DVOA through week 10, although they are likely to decline to 31 or 32 given that Atlanta (31st) shut down Carolina and Cincy only gave up 17 points. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Edited November 18, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

40 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I focus on collective passer rating given that team passer rating differential is the best statistical predictor of success/failure in the NFL. YPG doesn't matter much when you're down by 20 and the team is running it all the time to milk the clock.  Having said that, Cincy and AZ are worse (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating), although Miami's schedule is much easier than theirs.

 

They are 30th in pass defense DVOA through week 10, although they are likely to decline to 31 or 32 given that Atlanta (31st) shut down Carolina and Cincy only gave up 17 points. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

What does that say about Jimmy garropolololol

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Just blitz the living crap out of the kid like you did with Fitz. Eventually you'd think we'd  accidentally run into a interception? Get Ford blocking help from the RB. Tell your ST unit not to sh it the bed.

Not to mention it’s time for Lee Smith to justify his contract with a little on field play. Smith is basically another tackle, I hope he is used to block Miller and then catch them asleep and leak out for a key pickup later in the game.

[timekills17]

5 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I think I am coming up for this game.  As long as work complies and doesn't send me on some international trip somewhere.  I missed the Eagles and Skins game because of work (only two missed this year).  So lets go work leave me alone, and I will be back home to Buffalo watching 

 

You can come join me in SWA.

I'm sure I could come up with a good reason for the TDY. Since I approve it anyway.

[thebandit27]

16 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Not to mention it’s time for Lee Smith to justify his contract with a little on field play. Smith is basically another tackle, I hope he is used to block Miller and then catch them asleep and leak out for a key pickup later in the game.

 

Not for nothing, but he absolutely mauled a DLman on Gore's 4th down conversion yesterday 

[billsfan_34]

4 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

Certainly not an easy game but we have a better defense and a better offense.  Not by a lot, but both are measurably better. 

 

I think we saw the potential of our offense this past week.  I don't know that Denver, led by Brandon Allen, is capable of that. 

 

It's at home, and unlike Philly/Cleveland, they aren't fighting for their playoff lives..  That second half collapse against Minnesota basically ended their hopes.

We are at home and they have to travel east. Lets get loud and get the W

[billsfan89]

The Bills did what they needed to do and they took care of a Fins team that is playing better but still someone the Bills should beat by 2-3 scores. The special teams did make the game much tighter than it should have been (coughing up the kick return and onside kick made the game within a 2 point conversion of the game being a one possession game fairly late) but the offense closed out the game and the defense held up its end of the bargain for the most part. 

 

The Fins are still bad but the Bills controlled this game on offense and defense with only the special teams costing them a coast to coast win but still turning them a comfortable win. 

 

This win doesn't make me feel more confident in the Bills as a whole but a loss or really close game would have been a really big blow to any playoff hopes on the season. The Broncos game is an absolute must win, 8-3 was a complete necessity for this team going into this brutal 4 game stretch. 

 

If the Bills lose to the Broncos then that might be the season. But they did what they had to do and they kept their season alive and well. 

[SoCal Deek]

Each week brings a new challenge for every team. The Broncos game is NOT an elimination game by any means. If you look around the AFC you’ll find the Bills are competing with a bunch of teams that win one week and then lose the next. Just keep playing good defense and they’ll be fine. 

[MAJBobby]

15 minutes ago, timekills17 said:

 

You can come join me in SWA.

I'm sure I could come up with a good reason for the TDY. Since I approve it anyway.

I retired last year. Now work for LM they love sending me International because of my Foreign Military Sales experience I have before I retired from the Military. 

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

We are at home and they have to travel east. Lets get loud and get the W

 

Bronco teams are known for not travelling well back east.

[Mark Vader]

16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Not for nothing, but he absolutely mauled a DLman on Gore's 4th down conversion yesterday 

He did not have a penalty either.

 

Positive sign, but still cautious.

[billsfan_34]

11 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Bronco teams are known for not travelling well back east.

Thats right and top to bottom our roster is better. I like our chances

[YoloinOhio]

 

[OZBILLS]

Getting tests should be a good sign? Surely you'd know if it was broken

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, OZBILLS said:

Getting tests should be a good sign? Surely you'd know if it was broken

We seldom find anything out until Wednesday.

[r00tabaga]

52 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I retired last year. Now work for LM they love sending me International because of my Foreign Military Sales experience I have before I retired from the Military. 

Thx for ur service Majbob.

New appreciation. 

[BITE ME]

Denver is a legit defense. We will see just how far along Allen has come.  Not sure yet.  Still not a great believer in guys like Allen and Jackson.  But we will see.

[r00tabaga]

45 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

He did not have a penalty either.

 

Positive sign, but still cautious.

He only had seven snaps on Sunday