Can the Detractors Now Admit Allen's Growth?

[Rubes]

Yeah, but is he better than Trubisky was at this point last year?

 

?

[starrymessenger]

6 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Yeah, but is he better than Trubisky was at this point last year?

 

?

 

Yikes. I hope never to see Allen looking like Trubisky did last night on the sideline after he was pulled with only one or two series left to play. 

[H2o]

49 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Sorry, you're all wrong, just read in an article that Allen has shown very little improvement and the Bills should consider signing Kap in the off-season. 

Let me guess, Florio @ PFT? 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

12 minutes ago, H2o said:

Let me guess, Florio @ PFT? 

 

Actually Sporting News Vinny Iyer

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Allen was acknowledged as a "polarizing" prospect, "high ceiling low floor".  All the analytics outfits of which I'm aware said he was a "joke of a 1st round draft pick" and "had less than zero chance to succeed in the NFL" and similar stuff.  Had him out of the first round, maybe down in the 3rd.

 

Eyeball scouts saw a more nuanced player - some good, some amazing, lot of potential, lot of aspects that needed work.

 

It was generally acknowledged that actual NFL teams who needed QBs but weren't drafting #1 had him in the first.

 

 

 

Are you f'in kiddin' me?  Link please?

 

 

OK lets try and link this.  It's from Vinny Iyer Sporting News 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/will-an-nfl-team-sign-colin-kaepernick-here-are-the-most-likely-scenarios-following-the-qbs-workout/ar-BBWTNKz?li=BBnb7Kz 

 

[Sundancer]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Miami’s defense allows a 105.6 qb rating. The only teams worse are the winless Bengals and 3 win Cardinals.  They have a dreadful secondary. 

 

Do you think they are "the weakest pass defense ever assembled in his lifetime," or do you think maybe he's got a bit of a bias that overrides common sense. 

 

Miami is bad. Miami is not even the worst team in the league. 

[TH3]

6 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Your premise is false.  Nobody has claimed that Allen hasn't made progress.  Posters have been critical of Allen for the mistakes he's made.  Critics have questioned if he's made enough progress because he's going to be compared with guys like Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, Watson, etc. without excuses.

 

 

Like all the Allen fanboys were MIA the last couple of weeks?

 

 

Bull manure.   QBs don't take multiple seasons to demonstrate that they're great.  Except for a few QBs in unique situations or who suffer injury (Brees, Smth, Rodgers, Stafford), good QBs show their stuff by the end of their second season as starters.  A QB's first two seasons as a starter is when he makes his biggest strides.  After that, his improvement is limited and mostly incremental and subtle even for the great ones.  No QB in the last two decades who has been a poor/mediocre QB for his first two years as a starter has suddenly turned into a great one in his third season.

 

These QBs all demonstrated their greatness early on.  Most were good as first year starters and improved even more as second year starters:

• Ben Roethlisberger took the Steelers to the playoffs as a rookie and a Super Bowl win as a sophomore.
• Andrew Luck took the Colts to the playoffs every year he played most of the season, including his rookie season.
• Russell Wilson took the Seahawks to the NFC Championship game as a rookie and a Super Bowl win as a sophomore.
• Carson Wentz was the leading candidate for the 2017 MVP as a sophomore when he was injured.
• DeShaun Watson lit up the league as a rookie before an injury cut his season short, and led the Texans to the playoffs as a sophomore.
• Patrick Mahomes played 1 game as a rookie, and then won the league MVP with 50 TDs as a sophomore.
• Lamarr Jackson took the Ravens to the playoffs as a rookie, and this year he's a leading candidate for league MVP.

 

Allen has not been "playing better and better", and claiming that he has is doing so is simply denying reality.  Yesterday was only the second game since the bye that Allen threw for more than 200 yards.  Against the Eagles, Allen didn't even throw for 100 yards.  While Allen threw for 260+ yards against Cleveland, he played tentatively and failed, once again, to hit any downfield passes.  Moreover, the Fins are a very poor team despite their scrappiness.  If Allen can play as well against the next five games -- Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots -- all teams with good or great defenses -- then we can say he's proving he's "that guy".  Given the lack of talent around him, though, it's more likely that we may be encouraged by his progress but not confident he's likely to be a franchise QB, so it will be imperative that the Bills significantly upgrade the offense around him, especially getting him a bonafide veteran WR1 whether they take a WR in the draft or not.

 

Agree.  ALLEN IS A BUST! Start tanking now!

[TH3]

4 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

Brown is a #1 WR.

 

Josh has only played in 22 games, so he should deserve the same consideration after playing 2 full seasons since you want to compare him to several HOF'ers

 

2018

12 games

225.4 yds per game

18 total TD's

12 INTs

52.8 comp %

5-6 QBrec

2019

10 games

250.6 yds per game

20 total TD's

7 INTs

60.3 comp %

7-3 QBrec

 

In what world do you live that you can't see Allen is playing better and better? Try comparing Allen to Allen, if you don't see progression in such a raw QB coming out I'm not sure what to say.

 

Nooooo!  Since actual stats show improvement we need to grade JA by such ambiguous factors like “flashes of greatness” and “factors”....and compare him to others in completely different situations so we can mark him down to match our preconceived narratives!

Edited November 18, 2019 by TH3

[london_bills]

7 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Your premise is false.  Nobody has claimed that Allen hasn't made progress.  Posters have been critical of Allen for the mistakes he's made.  Critics have questioned if he's made enough progress because he's going to be compared with guys like Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, Watson, etc. without excuses.

 

 

Like all the Allen fanboys were MIA the last couple of weeks?

 

 

Bull manure.   QBs don't take multiple seasons to demonstrate that they're great.  Except for a few QBs in unique situations or who suffer injury (Brees, Smth, Rodgers, Stafford), good QBs show their stuff by the end of their second season as starters.  A QB's first two seasons as a starter is when he makes his biggest strides.  After that, his improvement is limited and mostly incremental and subtle even for the great ones.  No QB in the last two decades who has been a poor/mediocre QB for his first two years as a starter has suddenly turned into a great one in his third season.

 

These QBs all demonstrated their greatness early on.  Most were good as first year starters and improved even more as second year starters:

• Ben Roethlisberger took the Steelers to the playoffs as a rookie and a Super Bowl win as a sophomore.
• Andrew Luck took the Colts to the playoffs every year he played most of the season, including his rookie season.
• Russell Wilson took the Seahawks to the NFC Championship game as a rookie and a Super Bowl win as a sophomore.
• Carson Wentz was the leading candidate for the 2017 MVP as a sophomore when he was injured.
• DeShaun Watson lit up the league as a rookie before an injury cut his season short, and led the Texans to the playoffs as a sophomore.
• Patrick Mahomes played 1 game as a rookie, and then won the league MVP with 50 TDs as a sophomore.
• Lamarr Jackson took the Ravens to the playoffs as a rookie, and this year he's a leading candidate for league MVP.

 

Allen has not been "playing better and better", and claiming that he has is doing so is simply denying reality.  Yesterday was only the second game since the bye that Allen threw for more than 200 yards.  Against the Eagles, Allen didn't even throw for 100 yards.  While Allen threw for 260+ yards against Cleveland, he played tentatively and failed, once again, to hit any downfield passes.  Moreover, the Fins are a very poor team despite their scrappiness.  If Allen can play as well against the next five games -- Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots -- all teams with good or great defenses -- then we can say he's proving he's "that guy".  Given the lack of talent around him, though, it's more likely that we may be encouraged by his progress but not confident he's likely to be a franchise QB, so it will be imperative that the Bills significantly upgrade the offense around him, especially getting him a bonafide veteran WR1 whether they take a WR in the draft or not.

 

Good take. 

 

'PRO ALLEN' people need to be patient as well as 'ALLEN HATERS' . We need to see how things go down the stretch against tough teams and put that together with what we have seen for a clearer picture. 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2019 by london_bills

[TH3]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Allen was acknowledged as a "polarizing" prospect, "high ceiling low floor".  All the analytics outfits of which I'm aware said he was a "joke of a 1st round draft pick" and "had less than zero chance to succeed in the NFL" and similar stuff.  Had him out of the first round, maybe down in the 3rd.

 

Eyeball scouts saw a more nuanced player - some good, some amazing, lot of potential, lot of aspects that needed work.

 

It was generally acknowledged that actual NFL teams who needed QBs but weren't drafting #1 had him in the first.

 

 

 

Are you f'in kiddin' me?  Link please?

What are you talking about? I just picked the first scouting report NFL.com....had him as a first round pick....post links with your quotes and I will match you with all the ones projecting him as a first rounder....some even had him going first

[19Bills83]

7 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Your premise is false.  Nobody has claimed that Allen hasn't made progress.  Posters have been critical of Allen for the mistakes he's made.  Critics have questioned if he's made enough progress because he's going to be compared with guys like Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, Watson, etc. without excuses.

 

 

Like all the Allen fanboys were MIA the last couple of weeks?

 

 

Bull manure.   QBs don't take multiple seasons to demonstrate that they're great.  Except for a few QBs in unique situations or who suffer injury (Brees, Smth, Rodgers, Stafford), good QBs show their stuff by the end of their second season as starters.  A QB's first two seasons as a starter is when he makes his biggest strides.  After that, his improvement is limited and mostly incremental and subtle even for the great ones.  No QB in the last two decades who has been a poor/mediocre QB for his first two years as a starter has suddenly turned into a great one in his third season.

 

These QBs all demonstrated their greatness early on.  Most were good as first year starters and improved even more as second year starters:

• Ben Roethlisberger took the Steelers to the playoffs as a rookie and a Super Bowl win as a sophomore.
• Andrew Luck took the Colts to the playoffs every year he played most of the season, including his rookie season.
• Russell Wilson took the Seahawks to the NFC Championship game as a rookie and a Super Bowl win as a sophomore.
• Carson Wentz was the leading candidate for the 2017 MVP as a sophomore when he was injured.
• DeShaun Watson lit up the league as a rookie before an injury cut his season short, and led the Texans to the playoffs as a sophomore.
• Patrick Mahomes played 1 game as a rookie, and then won the league MVP with 50 TDs as a sophomore.
• Lamarr Jackson took the Ravens to the playoffs as a rookie, and this year he's a leading candidate for league MVP.

 

Allen has not been "playing better and better", and claiming that he has is doing so is simply denying reality.  Yesterday was only the second game since the bye that Allen threw for more than 200 yards.  Against the Eagles, Allen didn't even throw for 100 yards.  While Allen threw for 260+ yards against Cleveland, he played tentatively and failed, once again, to hit any downfield passes.  Moreover, the Fins are a very poor team despite their scrappiness.  If Allen can play as well against the next five games -- Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots -- all teams with good or great defenses -- then we can say he's proving he's "that guy".  Given the lack of talent around him, though, it's more likely that we may be encouraged by his progress but not confident he's likely to be a franchise QB, so it will be imperative that the Bills significantly upgrade the offense around him, especially getting him a bonafide veteran WR1 whether they take a WR in the draft or not.

 

Talk about a detractor? You forget that Allen had the go ahead score against the Browns again in the late 4th and our D let them drive 82yds?

 

Your a hater and can't see progression. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Actually Sporting News Vinny Iyer

 

 

OK lets try and link this.  It's from Vinny Iyer Sporting News 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/will-an-nfl-team-sign-colin-kaepernick-here-are-the-most-likely-scenarios-following-the-qbs-workout/ar-BBWTNKz?li=BBnb7Kz 

 

 

Clickbait from someone who hasn't actually watched Bills games, IMO.

 

" Bills: Josh Allen hasn't progressed much from his rookie season, with running still being a big part of his game. Buffalo could push him a little more in Year 3 with Kaepernick behind him instead of Matt Barkley. "

 

Because if I'm a coach who wants to push a QB who is currently making 32 attempts/game, 60.3% completions, 218 ypg and 6.9 ypa, I'd absolutely go sign a 6-yer vet who last played 3 years ago and who rocked 33 attempts/game, 59.2% completions, 187 ypg, and 6.8 ypa to push him more. 

 

Push him backwards?

 

I wish these guys would listen to themselves sometimes.

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Admit to his growth?  Against Miami?  Yes.

 

Let's see how he does against some real NFL team, not just the tanking Dophins please.

 

13	Nov 28	BUF @ DAL	AT&T Stadium	4:30 PM	Tickets	CBS
14	Dec 08	BAL @ BUF	New Era Field	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS
15	Dec 15	BUF @ PIT	Heinz Field	1:00 PM	Tickets	CBS
16	Dec 21	BUF @ NE	Gillette Stadium	4:30 PM	Tickets	NFLN

 

 

I do hope he is improving - seriously.  

 

Go Bills.

 

 

Look at the Post  game thread 
or the GMFB love thread 

 

some people beg to differ 

 

playoff caliber football 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 hours ago, VW82 said:

I did career numbers and 2019 numbers. Is there some other range you'd like me to show? 

 

The point is: you can't reasonably address the question of how he's improving (or whether he's improving) just looking at this season.

You have to look at where he started last year vs where he is now.  At the end of the season it may be fair to look at the whole season and say "if we do a rolling average on 4 games, do we see a trend up? or not?" but otherwise, given the week to week variation in the quality of opponents, there's just too much noise.    What would you have as an R2 value on that trendline?  0.01?  Yeah, 10 points, that much scatter, not working. 

 

Even his full body of work at this point is really not significant enough to have validity as a trend.  So what you're saying amounts to, "sure, the trendlines have no statistically significant validity, but we can for sure see he's plateaued".  It doesn't work like that.  Even if you can run a t-test and say the 95% confidence interval is between 174-261 yds, it doesn't mean Allen has "plateaued" because as pointed out, the biggest steps in a QB's development usually come between seasons with new personnel and off-season work on identified issues.  He's not a mouse and we're not studying maze-running-time here.

 

I was trying to find the Allen interview on One Bills Live and not succeeding, but I did catch a snippet where one of them (Tasker?) was discussing a talk with a Sr Bills FO person who said it's really not necessary to have a referendum on Josh Allen week by week.  He's playing now, and when he finishes the year then we'll look at his whole body of work over the season and benchmark where he is and how he progressed from year 1 to 2.

 

 

[notwoz]

On 11/17/2019 at 4:50 PM, H2o said:

Against a team he was supposed to put up good numbers against, Allen comes through.

 

 

Doing well against a team he was expected to do well against ... is that growth? If I wrote something like that on my self-evaluation at work, I'd get a "meets expectations" rating from my boss and a raise that fell into the average category.  The Bills have some difficult opponents down the stretch. Let's see how he does. Then we can realistically discuss his growth. 

[Kiva]

I’m still on the fence. Sunday was a good game he played with more maturity and looked confident out there. He has to work the “deer in the headlight “ reaction out of his game and he has potential. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, Kiva said:

I’m still on the fence. Sunday was a good game he played with more maturity and looked confident out there. He has to work the “deer in the headlight “ reaction out of his game and he has potential. 

are you watching the same games we are?

 

[OZBILLS]

The 4:30 games are interesting.

I really want to see Allen in the different timeslot. Think he might show some of this growth

[Kiva]

15 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

are you watching the same games we are?

 

I’m watching the Bills.  You?

[BigDingus]

The fact you had to wait until 11 weeks into the season to be able to post this speaks volumes.

Yes, "detractors" (aka people who are just discussing what they've seen each week) can admit he had a very good game. 

So did Sam Darnold. Here's his stat line:

19/30 for 293 yards, 4 TD's & 1 INT, 121.3 rating.

Does one good game mean they've arrived? Allen beating the lowly Dolphins & Darnold beating the lowly Redskins is certainly impressive, but are you able to admit that for 9 other games this season Allen hasn't played a single complete game, that he wasn't able to complete a deep pass to save his life, took a ton of bad sacks, has a fumble problem, disappears for a couple quarters per game, and generally had accuracy problems, missing open targets often?

I don't even disagree that Allen is showing growth, only stating how ridiculous the idea behind this thread is. "HOLY CRAP! Allen beat the DOLPHINS! Ha, told ya! FRANCHISE GUY SUCKAS!" ?

 

 

 

[billsfan89]

21 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

The fact you had to wait until 11 weeks into the season to be able to post this speaks volumes.

Yes, "detractors" (aka people who are just discussing what they've seen each week) can admit he had a very good game. 

So did Sam Darnold. Here's his stat line:

19/30 for 293 yards, 4 TD's & 1 INT, 121.3 rating.

Does one good game mean they've arrived? Allen beating the lowly Dolphins & Darnold beating the lowly Redskins is certainly impressive, but are you able to admit that for 9 other games this season Allen hasn't played a single complete game, that he wasn't able to complete a deep pass to save his life, took a ton of bad sacks, has a fumble problem, disappears for a couple quarters per game, and generally had accuracy problems, missing open targets often?

I don't even disagree that Allen is showing growth, only stating how ridiculous the idea behind this thread is. "HOLY CRAP! Allen beat the DOLPHINS! Ha, told ya! FRANCHISE GUY SUCKAS!" ?

 

 

 

 

In the same way that one bad game isn't a sign he should be benched. One very good game (against a bad opponent) isn't a sign that he arrived. The way I look at it is that if you aren't going to beat up on the Fins then who are beating up on? But beating up on a horrid Fins team while a positive isn't a sign that all is well with Allen. I like Josh as a QB prospect but he was and still is a project QB. 

 

All the talk in the draft was that Josh was best served being in a situation where he could sit for 1-2 years where he can work on his footwork and get a feel for the pro-game a bit. Well the Bills mismanaged their QB situation so horrendously that they had to start him a lot his rookie year and go into him in year two as the undisputed QB starter. Allen has been progressing a lot since year one but he is definitely a work in progress.