Postgame thread: Week 11 Bills defeat Dolphins!

[Ya Digg?]

I'm sure I missed it somewhere, if not several comments about it, but did Lee Smith even play yesterday?  I didn't see multiple unnecessary holding calls and false starts so I didn't even notice him.

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dollars, there's no way you'll see this tally on Thanksgiving.  The 'Boys have the #5 scoring offense and the #9 scoring defense.  They are a legit team, a team that gets flagged every week by score differential as being better than their record suggests.  3 of their 4 losses have been by less than a TD, 2 by less than a FG.

 

They can be beaten, though: the Jets and the Saints and Vikings both managed it.  I would be happy with a 12-10 win or a 24-22 or 28-24 win.  Heck, one point would do me.

 

I'm pretty sure I am stirring things up to say this.  To my eyes, Allen's 'test' where he showed up better than people think was actually last week against the Browns.  He did bail a couple times and make a couple of poor decisions, but he also stood in the pocket and made good decisions and good or good-enough throws.  When I finally went back and watched coach's film with a pen, I saw about 7 passes that could have been caught and weren't - either because of uncalled DPI or really good pass D, or because we just don't have the "hosses" who can come down with those kind of throws yet.  And there are factors beyond Allen: if we got a couple penalty calls, if our D gets a stop on that last Brown's TD drive when we had the lead, or if this week's Haushka showed up last week in Cleveland, we plausibly get the W and people on this board and in the media, generally, would see Allen's game last week through a different lens. 

 

But we didn't, so they don't and won't, and that's fair.  That's football.  I will just point out the Browns demolished Pittsburgh and many who are incredulous that we let the lowly Browns slip by us, have the Stillers chalked up as an "L" for us.  The Browns have way more talent than their record shows and when they show up, they're legit tough.  (Or they were, before their best defender went berserker and got his ass kicked by the league)

 

My point isn't that last week against the Browns was a good-enough effort by Allen - it wasn't - but that was a "testing" game where he was asked to carry the team on his arm and he didn't have quite enough, but what he showed was a lot closer to enough than most people are thinking right now.  I think you could see it in both Daboll's presser and in the change in Allen's demeanor from pre-game, to post-game presser to Wednesday.  You could tell before the game that he knew he was in for a test and that the game plan was going to be on him.  Then afterwards, after he watched the film and dissected the game with the coaches, you could tell he went from being all discouraged "If I knew, I'd probably be hitting them" to confident "few decisions, six inches on two throws...I can fix those things" confident.

 

I am both encouraged and discouraged by yesterday's game.  It was great to see John Brown have a strong game.   He deserves it.  And also, Allen did distribute the ball elsewhere - 14 targets to 4 other receivers (as many as went to Brown).   I'm puzzled by the use of Beasley.  Are teams just taking away the short stuff he does well?  Is there something in practice where if Allen puts too much juice on as he does when he's pressured, he can't make those receptions and he puts the ball at risk so they're trying different routes with him?  I'm puzzled by the relative absence of Kroft.  I saw him open a couple of times against the Browns when Allen chose to throw to a more tightly-covered Brown, I'll be interested to see what's there from yesterday. The Texans vs Baltimore showed clearly that if a team has one great WR that the QB leans on, they are very vulnerable if the opponent has the hosses to take that guy away (and the Zebras let them get away with a few).  That will be the case both in Baltimore and NE, and probably Dallas.

 

Hap - I am no expert, but I believe that JA is simply much more comfortable at this point and time reading the outside receivers and coverages than he is reading the inside option routes.  
 

I just watch JA presnap on both game and “coaches film” and he seems much more comfortable with the reads and coverages he is going to get.  I think that sometimes right now is causing him to miss Beasley even when he beats his man because that is a very easy area of the field to get a major mistake.

 

I believe this is something that will get better - he is already using it more this year than last year with both Beasley and the TEs, but I believe this is the hardest part about trusting what you see and he is just not there yet.

 

We see JA throw more to Williams, McKenzie, and even Foster and Jones to limited degrees as they line up outside - than he does to Beasley in the slot.  Long term I think it will become a better part of the offense - I just think it took years for Brady to be comfortable reading and understanding the concepts and getting his receivers to see things exactly the same way.  I am not surprised it might take Josh a bit over 10 weeks to get there.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

8 minutes ago, Pay_Poyer said:

I'm sure I missed it somewhere, if not several comments about it, but did Lee Smith even play yesterday?  I didn't see multiple unnecessary holding calls and false starts so I didn't even notice him.

 

I knew I seen his number out there but not much so I looked it up.

7 - Offensive snaps

7 - ST snaps

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thank you.  That was very relaxing to watch.

 

 

There was some tight coverage throws in there too.  Some dude was arguing with me yesterday saying Allen doesn't throw the ball until the receiver is open.  I showed him otherwise and then he said he doesn't successfully throw to covered receivers.  Brown was covered on a lot of those.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Joe, even in the best light given the above he only comes close.    

 

First, do I want him to do what you are saying?  Hell yes, and I will take that!  are you kidding, 25 tds...GREAT.  However, you are going right to my very point...that is WE NEED HIM TO DO THAT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR AGAINST TOUGHER COMPETITION.  We are on the same page!

 

Secondly, if he does that, and doesn't throw ANY picks for the rest of the season he ends up at 48-26, with Rushing TDs.  It isn't the same as 52-19 (55-19 with Wilson's rushing TDS)...but this is all tangential to the main point.

 

Hypothetically and out of thin air not based on too much...If the Bills go 3-3 and Allen has 10 tds and 4 picks and generally looks good, I am probably good with that, especially if 10-6 gets them in the playoffs.  Before the season I may have thrown out 24 tds and 14 picks as a goal for him, with 30 tds total as a nice progression.  The above scenario: 23 passing tds, 13 picks and lets throw on at least 1 more rushing tds for 32 tds total...I love it.

 

...but give me your numbers, which I think aren't just good but significant.  Give me 12 tds, maybe just 2 picks and 4-2 with an upset victory on his shoulders and damn...25 tds, 9 picks, 34 tds total and 11-5...Joe HE IS that franchise QB then.  He is in the numbers range of Wilson, year 2, albeit with many more rushing tds).

 

...he just has to do what you are saying or hoping is going to do, and I for one really want him to do it.

 

What you're saying isn't a "nice progression" or "pleasantly pleasing" as we are all prone to say.  Finishing with 22 passing tds over a 10 plus game period with 2 ints really is a franchise qb.

 

 

 

That's also with less games is it not?  Wilson played 2 full seasons with playoffs.  Allen has not.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Hap - I am no expert, but I believe that JA is simply much more comfortable at this point and time reading the outside receivers and coverages than he is reading the inside option routes.  
 

I just watch JA presnap on both game and “coaches film” and he seems much more comfortable with the reads and coverages he is going to get.  I think that sometimes right now is causing him to miss Beasley even when he beats his man because that is a very easy area of the field to get a major mistake.

 

I believe this is something that will get better - he is already using it more this year than last year with both Beasley and the TEs, but I believe this is the hardest part about trusting what you see and he is just not there yet.

 

We see JA throw more to Williams, McKenzie, and even Foster and Jones to limited degrees as they line up outside - than he does to Beasley in the slot.  Long term I think it will become a better part of the offense - I just think it took years for Brady to be comfortable reading and understanding the concepts and getting his receivers to see things exactly the same way.  I am not surprised it might take Josh a bit over 10 weeks to get there.

 

Beasley has the second most targets on the team and the rest aren't even close.

4 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

 

 

 

 

You stop that right now!

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Felt the Bills were heavy on gang tackling, which they haven't been of late.  Keep it up

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

 

 

 

 

Oh hey, will you look at that stat.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Pay_Poyer said:

I'm sure I missed it somewhere, if not several comments about it, but did Lee Smith even play yesterday?  I didn't see multiple unnecessary holding calls and false starts so I didn't even notice him.

 

Lee Smith played, but only on 10% of the offensive snaps (7 total).  He played a bit of teams (again, 7 snaps, 21%)

 

Eric Wood had some comments about the offensive sets being different this game.  The Bills played almost the whole game in 11 set with Singletary (74%), Knox (71%), and Isaiah McKensie (78%).  When they changed off, it was Gore (26%) and Kroft (33%).  Roberts got 9 offensive snaps (12%) and Patrick DiMarco 4 (6%).

 

I don't know whether this represents a strategic change brought on by self-scouting, or a game-specific plan, but I really like it.  I wonder if McDermott sat down with Daboll and talked through some stuff - stuff that Daboll probably could tell him if asked, but that somehow wasn't making its way through into his game planning. 

 

For example, if you have a young QB who is trying to develop his timing and understanding of how different receivers will run different routes, how do you give him the most practice with each guy?  Answer: you limit the number of guys he is throwing to in practice, so he can get more reps with each players. 

 

How do you get the ball to your best players more? Answer: you can't get it to them if they're not on the field, so decide who your best guys are, and put them on the field more. 

 

How do you prevent your personnel groupings from being a "tell" to the defense as to what you are likely to do?  Answer: You run different plays from the same personnel grouping as much as feasible.

 

These are some of the things that I've meant when I've said sometimes I feel Daboll gets too caught up in the X's and O's and not giving enough thought to the Jimmies and Joes aspect or thinking only of one aspect of the Jimmy/Joe player choice (who is the best blocker, who is the best receiver for this route etc)

 

Time will tell if this represents a change in philosophy or if it was just for this week, but I personally (bar injury) think it is the right way to go.  Having McKensie lining up and being used in the conventional pass game more will help extend his value on the Jet Sweep too.  Teams were taking his presence on the field as a definite "tell".

 

Interestingly, Poyer is listed as having an offensive snap!  When?  Did anyone see this?

 

 

[Plano]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I knew I seen his number out there but not much so I looked it up.

7 - Offensive snaps

7 - ST snaps

You saw, you didn't seen

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Plano said:

You saw, you didn't seen

 

I seen that I was also drinking................a lot.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

57 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

There was some tight coverage throws in there too.  Some dude was arguing with me yesterday saying Allen doesn't throw the ball until the receiver is open.  I showed him otherwise and then he said he doesn't successfully throw to covered receivers.  Brown was covered on a lot of those.

 

Allen has been throwing people open all year.  Not all the time, but more and more often.  It's one of the notable improvements in his game.  There were a bunch of such throws in the Browns game, it's correct that many were incompletions.  The Browns DBs were very physical and covered well.  They also got away with some DPI.

[Rochesterfan]

33 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Beasley has the second most targets on the team and the rest aren't even close.

 

You stop that right now!

 

Yes and some of those Beasley targets have been with him as the #2 WR - when they have 2 TEs in the game.  Plus the other 5 WRs in more limited roles have been targeted 55+ times to Beasley 60 targets.  
 

I have no issue with how they are using Beasley and I believe by the end of the season both he and Smoke will have career highs in many categories.  It just seems watching JA - he is still more comfortable reading and dissecting the coverages on the outside.

 

Beasley - like Edelman in NE is open very quickly and then flows into coverage and NE at this time is great at using that play and Josh is a bit slower to pick it up.

 

I am overall very happy with the growth shown.

 

 

[egd]

23 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

We’ve only lost one game we weren’t supposed to.

Hopefully we pick up one we don’t expect to win.

 

We were underdogs in all 3 losses.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

McDermott Monday Presser

https://www.facebook.com/pg/BuffaloBills/videos/?ref=page_internal

 

pretty much a nothing-burger

said that it's great to see a lot of our guys coming in even though it's a "victory Monday" day off, wanting to see what went wrong with the coverage on ST and such

[CommonCents]

58 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Allen has been throwing people open all year.  Not all the time, but more and more often.  It's one of the notable improvements in his game.  There were a bunch of such throws in the Browns game, it's correct that many were incompletions.  The Browns DBs were very physical and covered well.  They also got away with some DPI.

I did some thinking on this yesterday. His comeback routes are thrown later than a lot of QBs we see. That is him depending on his arm to get it there when the WR breaks off. I can see how folks will think it is him costing the team YAC but it gets there on time. 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2019 by CommonCents

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Daboll Monday Presser

 

Nobody asked him about his moustaches, but man, that thing's a Walrus!  Goo goo g'Joob!

 

He seemed to tacitly acknowledge he would be calling from the box going forward. 

 

Gave Josh Allen a pretty strong endorsement.  He was asked if Josh revealed anything of himself this week (I think).

Said "I see kind of the same thing from Josh every week.  I think Josh is a good football player.  He's a good leader for our offense, a good leader for our team.  Puts in a ton of work.  Has the respect of his teammates.  And goes out every week and competes his tail off"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

I did some thinking on this yesterday. His comeback routes are thrown later than a lot of QBs we see. That is him depending on his arm to get in there when the WR breaks off. I can see how folks will think it is him costing the team YAC but it gets there on time.

 

I think Josh has acknowledged one aspect of this.  He has said that he's still making an adjustment between college and the pros and learning to throw with anticipation.  Credits seeing Barkley every week with helping him learn to adjust. 

The other aspect which I haven't heard him acknowledge but it's there, is processing speed.  It's engraining pattern recognition so that it operates at a sub-conscious level.   Translating from psycho babble into English, what it means is that in any skill that involves what the military calls an OODA loop (observe-orient-decision-action), what you see needs to get matched to a pattern.  Then you decide what that pattern means, and act.  When you're learning, conscious thought is involved.  What is the coverage?  Where is the safety?  Who will be open?  THROW. 

When you've been at it a while, it becomes engrained.  All the interpretation takes place at a sub-conscious level and it's See-REACT.  That's why Romo (before they tamed him down as an announcer) could just glimpse two teams lined up and BAM announce what the play should be.  He wasn't consciously processing the way the D was lined up and who moved when a WR went in motion, it was all engrained pattern recognition and interpretation taking place at the sub-conscious level.

Someone posted an article a bit ago about the development of young QBs that was pretty good.  You can try to short-circuit the learning as McVay did with Goff, but in some ways that just defers it or draws it out and it can be defeated by just waiting for 15 seconds then having the D reorient.   (If part of having Daboll go up to the booth is to give Josh his first read, that might be a mistake.)  You can try to design plays to simplify the number of decisions to be made.  But in the bottom line, developing that ability to read the D and react at game speed is something that just takes time, and either young QB eventually "get it" to the point where it's sub-conscious, or they don't. 

We don't know yet for Josh, but it's one reason he's taking more time right now, and it's actually a Good Thing, because it means he's trying to slow down and internalize the correct pattern recognition from different NFL defensive sets, instead of moving forward with the quick reaction that may be wrong.