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Posted

We would be 10-6, but we are going to rise up, be mad about the Buffalo game and beat NE at Gillette -- so 11-5 and on a roll.  Offense slowly gels and will grow a good amount, and D figures out how to stop the run and reverts to stellar-unit form.  We win one playoff game this year, and look out next.  Book it!

Posted
1 minute ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

We would be 10-6, but we are going to rise up, be mad about the Buffalo game and beat NE at Gillette -- so 11-5 and on a roll.  Offense slowly gels and will grow a good amount, and D figures out how to stop the run and reverts to stellar-unit form.  We win one playoff game this year, and look out next.  Book it!

That's the spirit!!!

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I wish I hadn't seen that.  That's not good.

 

Let's hope that turns out to be wrong.  

 

I don't see us winning more than 10.

 

 

 

 

It is still pretty early, but flipping Pitt and Buffalo swaps them to 11-5 and Buffalo 10-6. Does not matter though. We could win any other game and we would still miss the playoffs. 

 

If it makes you feel better, ESPN projects us winning that game as of right now. They also have us over Dallas, but again, even if we swapped an L for a W in NE or Baltimore, we would miss the playoffs at 11-5. 

 

Questioning accuracy of win% is valid. It has Oakland at 11-5 at the 5th seed. 

Edited by Mango
Posted
6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Of course past outcomes don't dictate future results, but patterns can be used for predictive purposes.

 

That aside, there is almost always a sure loss game that turns out to be a win game.  Maybe that can be the case in Pittsburgh.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some patterns are more predictive than others. I like the Bills at home in December. I worry about playing in Miami in September. There is a reason for that, but it all depends on the TEAMS. 

 

As for Bills vs Steelers, the team and the year matters. Not a two or three decade “trend”. ZERO guarantees, but it’s a weak premise. We used to have a saying in lending: “just because you had to repo a blue Chevy doesn’t mean you never lend on blue cars or Chevy’s again.”  (The same was NOT said about restaurants!) 

 

I just don’t like the idea of walking in with a defeated mindset, from players or fans. Sorry, just how I’m wired. 

Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

If you go straight win percentage/favorites, Buffalo right now puts us into the playoffs. If we swap Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh to a loss, winning any other game, regardless of NE, BAL, DAL, we miss the playoffs entirely because we lose the head to head against Pitt. It is a must win...assuming the favorites do what they are supposed to do right now. We needed the CLE game. 

 

So that would put the Bills and Pitts burg ties so Pitt becomes the 5 seed and the Bills the 6 Bills hold tiebreaker over Tenn and have the Raiders/Indy to contend with.  Indy conference record at the moment si 4-4 Bills adv with 4-2 Conference record Oakland it at 3-2 light Bills margin in the conference record.  But you have the Bills out of the Playoff hrmmmm math is not adding up

 

I think Oakland may be a dark horse as their schedule is getting easier Colts have a rough last half  I do agree I think Bills need to be 10-6 to get in.  9-7 and nope not going. 

Edited by ILBillsfan
Posted
4 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

So that would put the Bills and Pitts burg ties so Pitt becomes the 5 seed and the Bills the 6 Bills hold tiebreaker over Tenn and have the Raiders/Indy to contend with.  Indy conference record at the moment si 4-4 Bills adv with 4-2 Conference record Oakland it at 3-2 light Bills margin in the conference record.  But you have the Bills out of the Playoff hrmmmm math is not adding up

 

Win% right now only has Oakland losing to KC for the rest of the year, and they only play AFC teams. Buffalo losing to New England and Baltimore, which puts Oaklands conference wins above Buffalo by +1. Assuming win % comes to fruition Buffalo is the 6th seed and Oakland is the 5th. If we only flip Buffalo and Pitt, Pittsburgh is the 5th seed with the tie breaker over Oakland at the 6th seed with strength of victory. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Posted
4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Win% right now only has Oakland losing to KC for the rest of the year, and they only play AFC teams. Buffalo losing to New England and Baltimore, which puts Oaklands conference wins above Buffalo by +1. Assuming win % comes to fruition Buffalo is the 6th seed and Oakland is the 5th. If we only flip Buffalo and Pitt, Pittsburgh is the 5th seed with the tie breaker over Oakland at the 6th seed with strength of victory. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

yeah Oakland is the dark horse as you state I did add this when I went thru Oakland, Indy and Pitts schedule.  Tennessee is out of the convo with the 5th loss.  I think Dallas or Pitt will be the games in that set of 4 that will really determine it.  I feel good about beating Miami they got lucky that Indy played really really bad at home and Miami stole that victory.

 

Denver on the other hand I'm glad we get at home vs out in mile high so it has me leaning to a win here as well.

 

That has at 8-3 going into Dallas on a short week which helps some as Thursday game seem to hurt the offenses a bit more vs defenses (lots of unders on the totals in games on Thursday nights backs this up as well)  And they have bad DVOA's Deff/Offensively like the Bills.

 

Ravens/Pats I have as losses

 

Pittsburgh will be interesting, that Rams game was the Rams beating themselves without a couple of key players on the line Pittsburgh really did nothing offensively minus Conner and well if the run d is still leaky and in Pitt will make that a very hard match up 

 

Jets at end of year would love to be in the spoiler role and remember the sting of losing a game they should of won to start the year

 

Any way it goes i had the Bills at 9-7 preseason should  finish at 9-7 or 10-6 ...its had to come up with three losses on Pitts schedule so I can see where you have the steelers 10-6 with the Bills and if they win that head to head would bump us.

Posted
3 hours ago, Looper said:

Dolphins - win

Broncos - win

Cowboys - loss

Ravens - loss 

Steelers - loss

Patriots - loss

Jets - win 

 

9-7


I got no feelings on this, but is they lose 4 in a row to get to 8-7 I think the last game will be a run for the bus

 

Posted

Pre Season? NO misses, thus far.

 

WK1 @ Jets. WIN (1-0)

WK2 @ Giants WIN (2-0)

WK3 Bengals WIN (3-0)

WK4 Patriots LOSS (3-1)

WK5 @ Titans WIN (4-1)

WK6 BYE (4-1) 

WK7 Dolphins WIN (5-1)

WK8 Eagles LOSS (5-2)

WK9 Redskins WIN (6-2)

WK10 @ Browns LOSS (6-3)

WK11 @ Dolphins WIN (7-3) 

WK12 Broncos WIN (8-3)

WK13 @ Cowboys LOSS (8-4)

WK14 Ravens WIN (9-4)

WK15 @ Steelers LOSS (9-5)

WK16 @ Patriots LOSS (9-6)

WK17 Jets WIN  (10-6) 

 

I am now sceptical of beating the Ravens- obviously. After that horrible loss last week, likely to be 9-7 & possibly miss the Playoffs.

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted (edited)

@ Mia - Win

DEN - Win

@ Dal - Win

BAL - Loss

@ Pit - Loss

@ NE - Loss

NYJ - Loss

 

3 straight wins to get to 9-3, including an upset win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving will have us all feeling great over the holiday weekend..........

3 straight losses will have us all in a panic and setup a must win final weekend in Buffalo vs. the Jets to get into the playoffs.

 

McDermott and Josh Allen put up a stinker and lose in heartbreaking fashion, and miss the playoffs, setting up an offseason fueled with discussion over whether this coach and QB combo are the answer.

Edited by Estro
Posted

I look at our injury report compared to other teams and think that will be the difference between 8-8 and 10-6.  Our offense will improve as they become more comfortable playing together.  I have us going 10-6 beating the teams we're supposed to beat and an upset against Baltimore.  That record probably gets us into the playoffs.

Posted

Don't forget that in the event of a 3 way tie, head to head is thrown out.  Remember in '17 we lost to the Chargers but beat them in tiebreakers because there were 3 teams in the tie. 

Posted
6 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Pre Season? NO misses, thus far.

 

WK1 @ Jets. WIN (1-0)

WK2 @ Giants WIN (2-0)

WK3 Bengals WIN (3-0)

WK4 Patriots LOSS (3-1)

WK5 @ Titans WIN (4-1)

WK6 BYE (4-1) 

WK7 Dolphins WIN (5-1)

WK8 Eagles LOSS (5-2)

WK9 Redskins WIN (6-2)

WK10 @ Browns LOSS (6-3)

WK11 @ Dolphins WIN (7-3) 

WK12 Broncos WIN (8-3)

WK13 @ Cowboys LOSS (8-4)

WK14 Ravens WIN (9-4)

WK15 @ Steelers LOSS (9-5)

WK16 @ Patriots LOSS (9-6)

WK17 Jets WIN  (10-6) 

 

I am now sceptical of beating the Ravens- obviously. After that horrible loss last week, likely to be 9-7 & possibly miss the Playoffs.

10-6 and no playoffs.   That could happen. 

Posted

Unfortunately I have to stick with my preseason calculations. The back half will produce a 9-7 or 8-8  season. The Bills have a playoff caliber Defense that unfortunately was exposed as weak against the run. A slightly less than average offense with a weak Oline,  is short a #1 WR, no TE who stands out as NFL starter, and a QB that has yet to prove he is capable of being a Franchise QB. ST is a weakness with a bad punter and a kicker sliding down the wrong side of his career. Our top two draft picks have both failed to live up to their high draft positions. They have not contributed to this season like someone drafted that high are expected to, although they both may have potential for the future. This team is exactly as it appeared before the season began, and the GM has done nothing substantial to improve it since then,  despite its obvious and glaring shortcomings. It appears they will perform on the field exactly as it appeared on paper before the season started.

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted
9 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

Jeeezz !.....don't rush me. I said I'm pontificating. ?

Ah.  Can’t find the Magic 8 Ball, eh?

7 hours ago, row_33 said:

...I think the last game will be a run for the bus

 

For the mere fact of hearing John Murphy asking rhetorical questions on the last game broadcast, I hope you’re wrong.  ?

Posted

At Miami LOSS 16-21 No offensive click the defense falls apart at the end as we lead most of the game until the end 

Denver LOSS 13-10 Again we need to score frustration in the team , defense plays better but it is not enough 

At Cowboys WIN expecting a loss A Big win ! An unexpected win 14-9 

Ravens  LOSS We get blow away 43-7 Ravens are very very good 

At Steelers LOSS Again very close 9 -13 Much improved defense from last week  and offense just not  able to score  

At Patriots LOSS but it should have been a win the referees screws us on purpose and give a free win to the Cheetriots 17-22 

NY Jets WIN a meaningless win , highest scoring game of the season but too late ! We blow away the NY Jets 45-10 

Very disappointing 8-8 season 

 

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