Some Allen/Offense Stats

[GreggTX]

I remain doubtful that Josh can ever be elite. I hope he proves me wrong because I like his attitude and effort.

 

I figure I'll get flamed for saying this, but Roman would be much better for Josh than Daboll. Daboll is very good at play design, but his play calling is awful. He is too predictable. Josh passes poorly and runs as well as any QB in the NFL except Lamar Jackson. Some seem to think we need a "21st century offense" which means pass, pass and pass some more. I think we're better maximizing the talent we have with Allen, good blocking at the TE position and Singletary. The problem is keeping the safties back with a QB that routinely misses anything over 25 yards. Josh doesn't just miss those deep balls. He can't even place the ball in the same area code as his receivers.

 

My greatest fear for Allen is that he'll be just good enough to keep Beane from drafting someone to replace him for several years like Tannehill in Miami. Then again, Beane's high draft picks have all been disappointing as well as his FA acquisitions. Our GM is the real problem.

[Boca BIlls]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's actually not obvious (to me) from watching the film of last Sunday's game and from reading some of the all-22 analyses.  He made some excellent reads and correct decisions.  He had some drops and some contested catches that were makeable, but not made.  Some of the decisions he's catching heat for were not bad decisions and some of the "off target" throws upon careful review can be seen to be deflections.  In some cases, he could have thrown with more arc but then different issues arise.

 

He also did make some bad decisions.  He's a work in progress.  We knew that when we drafted him.

He shows he cannot read defenses correctly and misses reads. You can see it clear as day with he all-22

Edited November 13, 2019 by Boca BIlls

[ILBillsfan]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You're entitled to your opinion.  I watch other games, and I see plenty of overthrows and missed long passes from other QBs.   I haven't drilled into the stats.  If you want to see that as "somebody being difficult for the sake of it" you're entitled to your view I guess.

I seem to recall a pass in the Browns game to ODB where he had Tre beat for a big gain on a deep ball and oh it went incomplete  It does happen a lot but it's the focal point on this board for some reason

[Big Turk]

53 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

We're counting Tyrod's time in Baltimore as a bench warmer as experience I guess? Tyrod has started 46 games in his career. 

 

The point is we ran Tyrod out of town for playing QB the way Allen has been playing. Allen has much more potential than Tyrod, but he has to start living up to it at some point. 

 

 

Allen is much better in the short and intermediate game and over the middle than Tyrod was...Tyrod threw a nice deep ball Allen hasn't figured that part out yetm

[MJS]

1 minute ago, ILBillsfan said:

I seem to recall a pass in the Browns game to ODB where he had Tre beat for a big gain on a deep ball and oh it went incomplete  It does happen a lot but it's the focal point on this board for some reason

Agreed. They are called low percentage throws for a reason. Every single QB misses those. Deep balls are not often completed. Every once in a while you have a QB that makes those throws more consistently, and they are superstars like Aaron Rodgers.

 

There's a reason the deep ball isn't attempted very often.

[whatdrought]

Any crap about TT and Allen being similar ends with three words:

 

 

Third and Long. 

[ILBillsfan]

4 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

He shows he cannot read defenses correctly and misses reads. You can see it clear as day with he all-22

I'm guessing this is your analysis because that is not what I her when listening to people who understand the game way more than me.  Unless I'm missing information about your credentials than just a fan

[Do The Reich Thing]

Seeing the Roman stats makes me think oh how bad he's gonna want to beat the tar out of us in Buffalo in a few weeks. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

TT sucks ....  Now that that is out of the way ..

 

Let me repeat the stats I dug up and posted earlier 

 

	Comp %	YPG	RATE	4QC	GWD
QB 1	62.1	235.3	85.7	2	3
JA	59.9	213.2	81.6	3	4

 

 

What do you think of those #'s by a two 2nd year QB's  *NOTE  Josh's season isn't over 

 

QB 1 never had above a 68% comp ratio and his career comp is 64.1%

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

I seem to recall a pass in the Browns game to ODB where he had Tre beat for a big gain on a deep ball and oh it went incomplete  It does happen a lot but it's the focal point on this board for some reason

 

Funny how that works.  And if deep throws were high percentage plays that's all we would see on every down. 

 

Allen needs to start hitting these throws once & a while.  My guess is that the problem is not all on Allen.  His WR's don't exactly track the ball down when it's in the air and I still can't get the herky, jerky movements of McKenzie out of my mind as he try's to find the ball.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Or maybe Sullivan can comment on the RB's (healthy McCoy), TE's and WR's that Tyrod had compared to Allen's over his first 20 starts.

 

Germaine to this point: the OL.  Losing Wood and Incognito and not replacing them adequately was huge last year.

 

When you have a new starter, it's appropriate to look at the progression in their stats from year to year.  You lose detail by lumping them.

 

 

 

[whatdrought]

Missed in the "Allen can't hit the deep ball" argument is two things: We have seen him hit those passes before, both in college and last year, and this offense is creating opportunities for it. At some point, he's going to connect- and then he's going to continue connecting. My one complaint with Allen, and I don't even know if complaint is the right word- more like slight concern, is that he's a very emotional player. When he's up he's up, and when he's down he's down. It's the old school gunslinger mentality. That being said, once he gets that monkey off his back, watch out.

[HappyDays]

Sullivan wrote about football for a long time. You'd think he would understand it better.

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Germaine to this point: the OL.  Losing Wood and Incognito and not replacing them adequately was huge last year.

 

When you have a new starter, it's appropriate to look at the progression in their stats from year to year.  You lose detail by lumping them.

 

 

 

 

"But mah hot take..." - Jerry Sullivan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, HappyDays said:

Sullivan wrote about football for a long time. You'd think he would understand it better.

 

I actually think he probably does.  He just goes for the "hot take" and the clickbait

[ILBillsfan]

3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Funny how that works.  And if deep throws were high percentage plays that's all we would see on every down. 

 

Allen needs to start hitting these throws once & a while.  My guess is that the problem is not all on Allen.  His WR's don't exactly track the ball down when it's in the air and I still can't get the herky, jerky movements of McKenzie out of my mind as he try's to find the ball.

 

 

Absolutely agree.  You do keep trying because I 'm confident he will hit some of these eventually.  I still remember Losman hitting those three bombs to Evans vs the Texans

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

58 minutes ago, Seasons1992 said:

I guarantee you all $100 that we would have beaten Jax in the playoffs if Allen was playing that game after two seasons of starting.

 

Or you’d be making excuses for the poor talent around him. 

[ILBillsfan]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I actually think he probably does.  He just goes for the "hot take" and the clickbait

you don't get followers just stating the obvious have to put out takes that get people talking.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

TT sucks ....  Now that that is out of the way ..

 

Let me repeat the stats I dug up and posted earlier 

 

	Comp %	YPG	RATE	4QC	GWD
QB 1	62.1	235.3	85.7	2	3
JA	59.9	213.2	81.6	3	4

 

 

What do you think of those #'s by a two 2nd year QB's  *NOTE  Josh's season isn't over 

 

QB 1 never had above a 68% comp ratio and his career comp is 64.1%

 

I'll bite because I have no idea who QB 1 is.  Now looking at those numbers I would say they're pretty close but then if I only have those numbers to go by then trying to compare them and reach an informed conclusion is impossible without knowing the following:

 

*  Who were the offensive lineman for each QB.

 

*  Who were the WR's

 

*  Who were the TE's

 

*  Who were the RB's

 

* Who were the coaches

 

* Can you provide some details on the game results.  For instance a check down QB is going to pad their stats very nicely if they play in a few more games in which they trail by multiple scores and are facing prevent defenses. 

 

So I'm curious who is QB #1?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

We're counting Tyrod's time in Baltimore as a bench warmer as experience I guess? Tyrod has started 46 games in his career. 

 

The point is we ran Tyrod out of town for playing QB the way Allen has been playing. Allen has much more potential than Tyrod, but he has to start living up to it at some point. 

 

 

 

For most of his time here I'd have been "yea but screw the stats just watch the games.... Allen plays nothing like Tyrod. And then the last few weeks happened. I called Sunday Tyrod-esque long before seeing these stats." It is less whether the numbers are the same as Tyrod for me.... they will be what will be.... but if he starts playing like him regularly we have a problem.