The Buffalo Bills Class of 2019 Mid Year Report Card

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Your story about Sapp is interesting.  It shows that assimilating as a DT to the NFL can take time.  I do think that Sapp had a much more impactful rookie year.  He seemed to play better as the year went on - not worse.   

 

To be fair, I'm not sure that Oliver's drop in playing time is so much a reflection of his play getting worse, vs needing a larger/different style of player.

They're fundamentally sacrificing pressure/penetration on the DL to keep the LBs from being gashed in the run game, is how I see it. 

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think the OP knows that and isn't necessarily trying to bash the team - just assess what we're getting from our draft class.  JMO.

Would you not agree that relative to the immediate contributions some other teams have seen, it has been disappointing to date?  You're right, that doesn't mean several of the guys won't take a step next year and turn out to be a good class.

 

 

 

I think there is a tendency to look at the Steelers and drafting Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster and thinking “we could have done that!” I think the truth is probably more that most teams are feeling some angst over their choices. I like the last few drafts and their projections much more than the drafts from the prior FO. I could be WAY off base, but I think we have some guys we will want to keep. AND.... I doubt their are many teams who feel like they could not have done better a half season into the year. It’s a crapshoot, and time will tell. 

[RyanC883]

43 minutes ago, Mr. Wonderful said:

Looks to be an average draft class at best for Beane and Co.  Ford has been disappointing especially since Beane desperately wanted and moved up to get him.  

 

I think we need to move Ford to Guard and Oliver to DE.  

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I think there is a tendency to look at the Steelers and drafting Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster and thinking “we could have done that!” I think the truth is probably more that most teams are feeling some angst over their choices. I like the last few drafts and their projections much more than the drafts from the prior FO. I could be WAY off base, but I think we have some guys we will want to keep. AND.... I doubt their are many teams who feel like they could not have done better a half season into the year. It’s a crapshoot, and time will tell. 

 

JuJu would not be good here.  He has been slightly above average with Ben out.  We need a QB big time. 

[Augie]

I think if there is any one thing we can all agree upon, it’s that it is far too soon to tell much about this draft class. We’ll all have different opinions, and they will turn out to be right and wrong, then right and wrong again over the next few years. 

[Boatdrinks]

It probably takes two or 3 seasons to grade a draft class , so any mid season year one grade is provisional at best. Some good players have started slow out of the gate, and others burst on the scene only to fizzle out in a season or two. So any grading this year should be taken with the proverbial dose of salt. It’s safe to say that none of the Bills draft picks have outperformed their slot with the possible exception of Singletary. Others have flashed while struggling with consistency ( Knox) , and some have simply struggled ( Ford). Seasons end would be a good time to grade McDs first draft (2017) with just 7 regular season games worth of storyline to be written. Hopefully that end doesn’t come in week 17. 

40 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

JuJu would not be good here.  He has been slightly above average with Ben out.  We need a QB big time. 

I strongly disagree. Smith-Schuster would be a main component of the Bills WR Corp right now if they had drafted him. 

[OZBILLS]

4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

It probably takes two or 3 seasons to grade a draft class

 

Also tough is that half these draft picks will probably end up being traded/cut and then we need to assess them at their new home.

 

Equally hard is when they become a competent starter and start to show what we were waiting for in the first/second year!

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, Dr.Sack said:

Oliver to me has been solid. He hasn’t done enough to warrant the high pick but I’m not disappointed in his play. He’s a bit undersized at DT and will benefit from the humble pie that has been his 2019 season.

Hmmm....Under-sized?

 

So you think a DT who is 6' 1" 287 pounds is undersized in today's NFL?

 

For arguments sake, how do you think a DT who was 6'1"1 287 pounds in the 1990s do with the bigger OLmen back then?

 

I'm not being a turd, just curious because I see this comment a lot on here - is there a feeling that this size has always been too small or is it something newer?

Edited November 13, 2019 by Reed83HOF

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To be fair, I'm not sure that Oliver's drop in playing time is so much a reflection of his play getting worse, vs needing a larger/different style of player.

They're fundamentally sacrificing pressure/penetration on the DL to keep the LBs from being gashed in the run game, is how I see it. 

He also needs to work on his hands and technique, his entire football life thus far has been predicated on his speed and athleticism (which are off the charts). He needs the refinement aspect of his game which will come with time. If he isn't quite fully there yet or developing it to be used without rely back to his old ways - it is prudent to clip his time a bit so he doesn't feel overwhelmed and has a chance to slow down and think a bit. Typically when you are drafting blue chippers you know there is a bust potential (it happens every year), but you are betting on the intangibles you can't coach up - speed, athleticism,and size etc. I need to say this because someone will be a jerk at some point, no they usually are not scrubs either in the college level.

[Boatdrinks]

16 minutes ago, OZBILLS said:

 

Also tough is that half these draft picks will probably end up being traded/cut and then we need to assess them at their new home.

 

Equally hard is when they become a competent starter and start to show what we were waiting for in the first/second year!

Half seems like a high percentage in this day and age. Can’t assess them with another team vs how they would do here though. Different teams, schemes , situations all are factors. No need to do that as the same could be said for most other teams. Not all drafted players stick with their original teams for various reasons. Some players are late bloomers or need a different system. These things happen; I’m primarily concerned with how the Bills players perform. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Phil The Thrill said:

What would you give him?  I graded Knox down because he had huge drops in at least  2 football games.  I could see him as a B, but don’t think he’s been consistent enough for anything higher so far 

 

Knox has a chance to be special

[Augie]

9 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Knox has a chance to be special

 

A few drops as a rookie does not trample the good I’ve seen to date. Time will tell. I’m encouraged. 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

It’s halfway into the season and Brandon Beane’s 2019 draft class appears to have some mixed results.  
 

1.  Ed Oliver - D

Ed has been average to below- average at times this season.  But he hasn’t made very many plays - not what you want to see from the 9th overall pick.  Also, in crucial times during games the past few weeks, coaches chose to keep Ed on the bench.  He’s playing 30% of snaps the past few weeks - there are players drafted in lower rounds who have played as much and had similar (or better) production.  While he has the talent to pan out, midway through the year, he’s been a disappointment. (48%, 55%, 35% and 33% the last four weeks are hardly "playing 30% of snaps the past few weeks". Right away this puts a question mark behind your aims for this post. Oliver's played 53% of D snaps this year) And he's been doing a good job when he plays. D is far too low. No, he certainly doesn't deserve an A, but C+/B- is more like the area. If he's still playing like this next year it would indeed draw a D grade, but for a rookie, he's been solid.)

 

2. Cody Ford - C-

Ford has looked outmatched at times trying to pass block against quick DE’s at RT.  To his credit, he has improved and made some good blocks in the running game and at times held his own at RT.  I feel that the Bills drafted him to play RT, and ultimately I see them moving him inside to guard full time in 2020.  Like Oliver, he has the talent to improve, but you’d like to see a 2nd round RT be a little more consistent.  (You're IMO closer to a solid evaluation here. I'd give him a C/C+, maybe B-. He's been overall solid for a rookie.)

 

3. Dawson Knox - C+
Knox has been a pleasant surprise for the Bills and has held down the starting TE spot for most of the season.  He makes some nice catches and is a great athlete.  But he also has had some costly drops in multiple games this season.   I think Knox is going to improve but first he needs to be a more reliable pass catcher. (He's on target for close to 500 yards as a rookie. That's not a C+, especially for a 3rd rounder. That's crazy talk, IMO. B, maybe B+.)

 

3. Devin Singletary - B

He has been a difference maker in several games this year.  So far he looks to be the crown jewel of the 2019 draft for the Bills.  The Bills need to make him a bigger part of the offense.  With more touches, I can easily score him at a B+.  But in limited duty this year, I’ll give him a B. (A B? For a guy averaging 6.4 YPC? A B? For a late 3rd rounder? Good lord, dude.)

 

5. Vosean Joseph - INC

6. Jaquan Johnson - INC

He has made some plays on special teams but given him limited action, this is tough to grade. 

6. Daryl Johnson - C-

Johnson played sparingly early in the year and started off ok in situational work.  He later struggled and saw his playing time drastically reduced.  Still, for a 6th round pick I’ll give DJ a passable score.  
 

7. Tommy Sweeney - C-

Like Johnson the Bills found a marginal contributor to their team, though he’s been inactive since Kroft returned.  He also beat out last years starting TE Jason Croom for a spot on the team.  It’s tough to evaluate Sweeney given his limited playing time, but I’ll give him a C-

 

Its way too early to make a final call on these picks. (Well, yeah it is. AAMOF it's pretty much too early to make a first call on these picks or most others this early.)  Outside of Singletary and Knox, this looks like a class that will take atleast one season (or longer) to make significant contributions to this team.   So far the strength of this draft appears to be in the mid-rounds

 

 

 

Bolded comments above.

 

The bottom line is it's way way too early to evaluate. Halfway through the first year you have no idea what a guy will become unless he's already playing like an absolute stud. None of our guys are doing that yet - though Singletary has been close - but that doesn't mean they won't in the future.

 

And I think you've undergraded pretty significantly through the first four picks.

 

I do agree with you this far, none save maybe Singletary has really shown forth as an early standout. And you generally hope that maybe one or two will, the way that Tre White, Stephon Gilmore and Cordy Glenn did. But Dareus did too, and look how that turned out.

Edited November 13, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Ed Oliver can't even make it on to the field. F-.

 

WASTED PICK.

[Dr.Sack]

6 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

I don’t know if I would say his play “solid.”  He has been average at times, but since the Washington game he has not been used very much.  When you see your play count drastically regress mid-season, then that’s a problem.  
 

What grade would you give him?

C

[GregPersons]

6 hours ago, Augie said:

I know, many people hate Cowherd, but he covered Tampa back when I was in that market. He commented recently how Warren Sapp was miserable for most of his first season. I recall that as being pretty accurate. Now he’s in the HOF. This is just ridiculous to be grading at this point, and it’s one more attempt to bash the FO and the team. This draft class is NINE games in. This is trying too hard to do your thing. 

 

I think Ed will find his groove, much like Sapp did ( NOT saying HOF level, but a slow start means little), Ford will be a starter - if maybe at guard, Singletary will be a pleasant surprise, Knox MAY just be a steal and I won’t crush him for a few drops as a rookie as he has showed so much positive, and Darryl Johnson may be the steal of the draft. 

 

I’m not going back and doing film study, or propping them up, just pointing out it’s ridiculously  early to have any real understanding of what these guys will become as pros. Another all to early bashing thread, IMO. But feel free to carry on. Do your thing, as always happens. 

 

Are you at least state certified? 

 

.

 

It's not ridiculous to evaluate as you go... it's right to do that. Do you feel the same about grading individual games?  You don't need certification to be thoughtful in criticism. 

 

Your grading in your second paragraph is all about potential, which is fine. The OP's grading was about the games played so far, which is an absolutely reasonable sample size to say how they've done, thus far. 

[mannc]

6 hours ago, Augie said:

I think if there is any one thing we can all agree upon, it’s that it is far too soon to tell much about this draft class. We’ll all have different opinions, and they will turn out to be right and wrong, then right and wrong again over the next few years. 

So I guess your point is that no one should post their opinions of Bills drafts picks on this board until you think enough time has passed to fully and fairly evaluate each pick, right?  

Well guess what... a lot is already known about players picked in this year’s draft.  Dozens of rookies around the league are making a big impact already.  That’s not happening with the Bills’ first two picks.  It doesn’t mean they are busts, but it’s not a great sign, either.  And it’s absolutely a valid topic of discussion here.  And it’s also fair to wonder if the current regime is as awesome as people around here keep saying they are.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

It’s halfway into the season and Brandon Beane’s 2019 draft class appears to have some mixed results.  
 

1.  Ed Oliver - D

Ed has been average to below- average at times this season.  But he hasn’t made very many plays - not what you want to see from the 9th overall pick.  Also, in crucial times during games the past few weeks, coaches chose to keep Ed on the bench.  He’s playing 30% of snaps the past few weeks - there are players drafted in lower rounds who have played as much and had similar (or better) production.  While he has the talent to pan out, midway through the year, he’s been a disappointment.

 

2. Cody Ford - C-

Ford has looked outmatched at times trying to pass block against quick DE’s at RT.  To his credit, he has improved and made some good blocks in the running game and at times held his own at RT.  I feel that the Bills drafted him to play RT, and ultimately I see them moving him inside to guard full time in 2020.  Like Oliver, he has the talent to improve, but you’d like to see a 2nd round RT be a little more consistent.

 

3. Dawson Knox - C+
Knox has been a pleasant surprise for the Bills and has held down the starting TE spot for most of the season.  He makes some nice catches and is a great athlete.  But he also has had some costly drops in multiple games this season.   I think Knox is going to improve but first he needs to be a more reliable pass catcher.

 

3. Devin Singletary - B

He has been a difference maker in several games this year.  So far he looks to be the crown jewel of the 2019 draft for the Bills.  The Bills need to make him a bigger part of the offense.  With more touches, I can easily score him at a B+.  But in limited duty this year, I’ll give him a B.

 

5. Vosean Joseph - INC

6. Jaquan Johnson - INC

He has made some plays on special teams but given him limited action, this is tough to grade. 

6. Daryl Johnson - C-

Johnson played sparingly early in the year and started off ok in situational work.  He later struggled and saw his playing time drastically reduced.  Still, for a 6th round pick I’ll give DJ a passable score.  
 

7. Tommy Sweeney - C-

Like Johnson the Bills found a marginal contributor to their team, though he’s been inactive since Kroft returned.  He also beat out last years starting TE Jason Croom for a spot on the team.  It’s tough to evaluate Sweeney given his limited playing time, but I’ll give him a C-

Its way too early to make a final call on these picks.  Outside of Singletary and Knox, this looks like a class that will take atleast one season (or longer) to make significant contributions to this team.   So far the strength of this draft appears to be in the mid-rounds

 

 

 

I'd go:

 

Oliver C

Ford D

Knox B-

Singletary B

Johnson C-

Sweeney D

15 minutes ago, mannc said:

So I guess your point is that no one should post their opinions of Bills drafts picks on this board until you think enough time has passed to fully and fairly evaluate each pick, right?  

Well guess what... a lot is already known about players picked in this year’s draft.  Dozens of rookies around the league are making a big impact already.  That’s not happening with the Bills’ first two picks.  It doesn’t mean they are busts, but it’s not a great sign, either.  And it’s absolutely a valid topic of discussion here.  And it’s also fair to wonder if the current regime is as awesome as people around here keep saying they are.

 

Drafting is ideally about finding those difference makers that make up the core of your team. So far I think the "regime" has drafted one real elite level difference maker - Tre White. Early to judge Oliver. He has played well but he hasn't made any difference making plays so far and that does start to become a tad concerning for sure - though I would argue the defense has not been better for taking him off the field more in the last two games..... if anything you could argue the opposite. At the moment the two 2018 first rounders Allen and Edmunds are still having their struggles and inconsistencies. And that class more than any other will make or break the regime. That is just how drafting a QB early works.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Did you take into account the draft status of each player, and therefore, their expected output or are you assessing them purely based on their raw output and performance up to this point? 
 

For me, idc where you were drafted. Once you’re on roster, your job is to perform. Quite often we get caught up in assessing players in relation to where they were picked. Take Tommy Sweeney for example: You gave him a grade likely based on that he was a 7th round pick that made the roster, despite the fact he’s been inactive for a number of games. To me, that’s a D-...Knox has been a key member of this team and has shown decently through his rookie season. I would have him as a B. When comparing the two TEs just based on performance, Knox is clearly more valuable than Sweeney when you put aside where they were selected 

Edited November 13, 2019 by EmotionallyUnstable

[Seven-N-Nine]

7 hours ago, Mr. Wonderful said:

Looks to be an average draft class at best for Beane and Co.  Ford has been disappointing especially since Beane desperately wanted and moved up to get him.  

Beane has to stop trading up for below average players. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Did you take into account the draft status of each player, and therefore, their expected output or are you assessing them purely based on their raw output and performance up to this point? 
 

For me, idc where you were drafted. Once you’re on roster, your job is to perform. Quite often we get caught up in assessing players in relation to where they were picked. Take Tommy Sweeney for example: You gave him a grade likely based on that he was a 7th round pick that made the roster, despite the fact he’s been inactive for a number of games. To me, that’s a D-...Knox has been a key member of this team and has shown decently through his rookie season. I would have him as a B. When comparing the two TEs just based on performance, Knox is clearly more valuable than Sweeney when you put aside where they were selected 

So how would you grade little ed?