The Athletic - Cover 1's breakdown of the game, more Allen than Daboll. Also adding some C1 & YPP twitter clips

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

This is where I'm at - it's a processing speed issue.  Tough to correct, but not impossible.

 

I think it is partly that but I think it is partly he is over processing because he has been told "be careful" so he isn't trusting his eyes enough when he does see things. 

[GG]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it is partly that but I think it is partly he is over processing because he has been told "be careful" so he isn't trusting his eyes enough when he does see things. 

 

I think there's a huge difference between being told not to make a mistake and not trusting his eyes.

 

The play calls and patterns don't put him in a position to make throws into tight windows.  The receivers are usually wide open in a brief window (by design).  He's late in making that read and throw.  He's still waiting for the receiver to get "college" open.  He usually makes that throw later than he should, which counters the theory that they're coaching him to avoid mistakes at all costs.   If they can shave 0.5 seconds off his decision making, he'll be well on his way.

[Questionable]

2 hours ago, unclepete said:

Exactly. I’m concerned because he has never shown his self to be an accurate Quarterback at any level. He looks like his college take. And guess what? Baker liked like his college take at the end of 2018 and Lamar looks like his college tape now. What if this is just Josh Allen?

I think it is.   He's not a dumb kid, so i really don't believe he's all that confused out there.  I just dont think he can consistently make accurate throws. 

 

In all honesty he reminds me a Fitz.  Smart, big arm...inconsistent accuracy.  

[jrober38]

10 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

The last 7 games will start to complete the picture; I do believe it is close to half completed. There was growth is in last chunk of games at the end of 2018 and he was growing the first 5-ish games of this season and he has hit a plateau while cleaning up his INTs. We need to see more growth this year in decision making and getting the ball out on time with anticipation; if he can't grow over the next 7 games in these areas, yeah i am concerned going into 2020 (not ready to close the door, but the writing will start to appear on the wall and we will need to prepare accordingly). In any event, I do expect he will get at least 1/2 through 2021 to make his case. he will have to stop growing right now for that to change imo...

 

I agree that's what will happen. I just don't think it's the right choice.

 

History from the past 15-20 years pretty clearly shows that if you're unsure of a young QB after seeing them on the field for two years the correct decision is almost always to cut bait and move onto something else. 

 

It never happens because egos are involved, but the inevitable always seems to be coach and or GM get fired, QB gets replaced and the team is back at square one. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

11 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I agree that's what will happen. I just don't think it's the right choice.

 

History from the past 15-20 years pretty clearly shows that if you're unsure of a young QB after seeing them on the field for two years the correct decision is almost always to cut bait and move onto something else. 

 

It never happens because egos are involved, but the inevitable always seems to be coach and or GM get fired, QB gets replaced and the team is back at square one. 

 

History also said JA wouldn't be able to complete more than 60% of his passes this year.  I genuinely think JA is not subject to the normal progression of things, for better or worse. That said, he has shown the ability to do everything you want a franchise QB to do. Make the tough throws, throw with anticipation, read defenses, move around the pocket. He just does them at different times, is inconsistent, and has yet to put it all together. Most of the guys who never take that leap never demonstrate the ability to do two or three of those things, and just stay static. 

 

As far as the coaches go, they live and die by Josh Allen. If they drop him next year and bring in a new guy, this is inevitably going to be a 6 loss team, and they will lose their jobs. Conversely, if they keep him, and JA fails, they still lose their jobs. Their better bet is stick with Josh Allen, just because then they at least have a shot at him putting it all together.  

 

 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

History also said JA wouldn't be able to complete more than 60% of his passes this year.  I genuinely think JA is not subject to the normal progression of things, for better or worse. That said, he has shown the ability to do everything you want a franchise QB to do. Make the tough throws, throw with anticipation, read defenses, move around the pocket. He just does them at different times, is inconsistent, and has yet to put it all together. Most of the guys who never take that leap never demonstrate the ability to do two or three of those things, and just stay static. 

 

As far as the coaches go, they live and die by Josh Allen. If they drop him next year and bring in a new guy, this is inevitably going to be a 6 loss team, and they will lose their jobs. Conversely, if they keep him, and JA fails, they still lose their jobs. Their better bet is stick with Josh Allen, just because then they at least have a shot at him putting it all together.  

 

 

 

This ignores the fact that they could actually find someone better in either the draft or free agency.

 

I don't love to look ahead, but next year's schedule is brutal based off how those teams are playing in 2019.

 

We play: our division, Seattle, San Fran, Arizona, LA Rams, LA Chargers, KC, Denver, Oakland, likely Pittsburgh and likely Indy. 

 

I see A LOT of losses there unless our QB is performing as a top 15 guy, and he has a long way to go to get to that level. 

[Logic]

9 hours ago, Questionable said:

 

It's not about his bad play for me, it is pretty definitive proof that guys are open and open quite often.  I believe Daboll's scheme has very little to do with the offense not progressing.  Allen just isn't making the plays.  He has plenty of time in that video and guys he's throwing to are wide open, he just fails to connect with inaccurate passes.

Fair enough. THAT I can agree with.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

This ignores the fact that they could actually find someone better in either the draft or free agency.

 

I don't love to look ahead, but next year's schedule is brutal based off how those teams are playing in 2019.

 

We play: our division, Seattle, San Fran, Arizona, LA Rams, LA Chargers, KC, Denver, Oakland, likely Pittsburgh and likely Indy. 

 

I see A LOT of losses there unless our QB is performing as a top 15 guy, and he has a long way to go to get to that level. 

 

Its an odds game man. What are the odds they find that guy? What are the odds JA takes the step? 

 

Seems an easy bet that the odds of the latter are better than the odds of the former. 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Its an odds game man. What are the odds they find that guy? What are the odds JA takes the step? 

 

Seems an easy bet that the odds of the latter are better than the odds of the former. 

 

I think the odds of finding a guy via a draft pick in the 1st or 2nd round are higher than the odds that Allen improves to the point where he's a legit franchise QB.

 

I think that historically about 20-25% of guys picked in those areas (excluding guys who go #1 overall) work out. 

 

I don't think Allen is any higher than that at this point. He could be a lot lower.

 

I think a lot of people are ignoring how atrocious the teams we've played have been, and how Allen really shouldn't be at the bottom of the league in so many passing categories given how many bottom 8 defenses he's faced.

 

Against a harder schedule, like the one we'll play next year, he could regress badly simply due to playing better teams. We might even see that happen over the remaining 7 games as our current schedule gets tougher with more teams fighting for the playoffs left to go up against. 

[CincyBillsFan]

25 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

History from the past 15-20 years pretty clearly shows that if you're unsure of a young QB after seeing them on the field for two years the correct decision is almost always to cut bait and move onto something else.

 

You mean like San Diego did with Brees? 

 

I would say the timeline is more like 2 - 4 years depending on the circumstances of each QB's situation.  And do you really want to count last year where the Bills had an historically bad offense?  Allen, a freaking PROJECT rookie QB was the only real offensive threat on the field last season.  The collection of "skill players" the Bills fielded on offense in 2018 was laughable in their ineptitude.  The Bills CUT 2/3 of their STARTING WR's a third of the way into the season!  Accuse me of seeing Allen through rose colored glasses all you want folks but what kind of a read can you get on a QB under those circumstances.  That Allen made any progress at all last year is amazing.

 

 

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

I think the odds of finding a guy via a draft pick in the 1st or 2nd round are higher than the odds that Allen improves to the point where he's a legit franchise QB.

 

I think that historically about 20-25% of guys picked in those areas (excluding guys who go #1 overall) work out. 

 

I don't think Allen is any higher than that at this point. He could be a lot lower.

 

I think a lot of people are ignoring how atrocious the teams we've played have been, and how Allen really shouldn't be at the bottom of the league in so many passing categories given how many bottom 8 defenses he's faced.

 

Against a harder schedule, like the one we'll play next year, he could regress badly simply due to playing better teams. We might even see that happen over the remaining 7 games as our current schedule gets tougher with more teams fighting for the playoffs left to go up against. 

 

Analyzing just their rookie year,  (I am counting Mahomes' second year as his rookie year just to be fair), 3 of those guys were better their rookie year than what Allen is right now.  That is a 15% percent chance of being successful, in the way  you describe. Plus, your assumption ignores that the top QB options will not be available to us by the time we pick next year. Seeing as you would have to settle for the third QB off the board (in all likelihood), it is fair to drop that number by half (7.5%). So the question becomes, is there a greater than 7.5% chance Allen improves in year three. It takes a cynical mind to think he cant beat those odds. 

 

2019

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

Dwayne Haskins 

Drew Lock

 

2018

Baker

Darnold

Allen

Rosen

Jackson

 

2017

Triubisky

Mahomes

Watson

Kizer

 

2016

Goff 

Wentz

Lynch

Hackenberg 

[jrober38]

8 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

You mean like San Diego did with Brees? 

 

I would say the timeline is more like 2 - 4 years depending on the circumstances of each QB's situation.  And do you really want to count last year where the Bills had an historically bad offense?  Allen, a freaking PROJECT rookie QB was the only real offensive threat on the field last season.  The collection of "skill players" the Bills fielded on offense in 2018 was laughable in their ineptitude.  The Bills CUT 2/3 of their STARTING WR's a third of the way into the season!  Accuse me of seeing Allen through rose colored glasses all you want folks but what kind of a read can you get on a QB under those circumstances.  That Allen made any progress at all last year is amazing.

 

 

 

 

 

Brees is one of 3-4 guys who did it.

 

In terms of guys who didn't (started early and failed), there are dozens of examples. 

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Analyzing just their rookie year,  (I am counting Mahomes' second year as his rookie year just to be fair), 3 of those guys were better their rookie year than what Allen is right now.  That is a 15% percent chance of being successful, in the way  you describe. Plus, your assumption ignores that the top QB options will not be available to us by the time we pick next year. Seeing as you would have to settle for the third QB off the board (in all likelihood), it is fair to drop that number by half (7.5%). So the question becomes, is there a greater than 7.5% chance Allen improves in year three. It takes a cynical mind to think he cant beat those odds. 

 

2019

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

Dwayne Haskins 

Drew Lock

 

2018

Baker

Darnold

Allen

Rosen

Jackson

 

2017

Triubisky

Mahomes

Watson

Kizer

 

2016

Goff 

Wentz

Lynch

Hackenberg 

 

I don't think there's a reason we can't do both. 

 

You can bet on Allen and still go after a QB you like in the 3rd round who you think has some ability. That way if Allen struggles next year you've got someone else you can take a look at, and if Allen plays well you've got a long term QB you can develop. 

[CincyBillsFan]

16 hours ago, Logic said:

If you think Cover 1 has any sort of vendetta against Allen or was pro-Tyrod and looks for ways to bash Allen, you're nuts.

Allen wasn't "bad" on Sunday, you're right. But he also wasn't GOOD ENOUGH to beat the Browns. The Browns packed the box against the Bills, blitzed over 40% of the time, and dared the Bills to beat them through the air, and the Bills couldn't. Josh Allen completed 53.7% of his passes and threw zero touchdowns. That's not good enough against an average to below average Browns defense.

People who exclusively blame Brian Daboll are ignoring the many plays he calls where wide receivers ARE open and Allen can't or won't throw to them. It happens a lot. It happened a lot on Sunday. 

I'm not an Allen hater. I like him and want him to succeed. Just look at my avatar. However, to put all of the blame on Daboll and completely absolve Allen is a chickenshit copout, in my opinion.

 

The Browns are not a bad defense against the pass though.  They have a stud pass rusher and one shut down corner and another decent corner.  Our TE's & RB's present almost no threat as pass receivers and our inability to execute simple screen passes really limits this offense.  We do not field a single PROVEN game breaker on offense.  No D-coordinator is losing sleep preparing for this offense once they set things up to keep Allen from running for a 100 yards. 

 

BTW, I'm for sticking with Daboll as continuity is important in developing a young QB.  Just like Allen is allowed to have off days in his 2nd year so is Daboll who is working with a talent deficient offense.  It's hard to design & execute effective offensive game plans when you don't have a single explosive skill player and are relying on a 2nd year project QB.

 

I think that as frustrating as it is for us, the operative word here is PATIENCE for both Allen & Daboll.  

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

I don't think there's a reason we can't do both. 

 

You can bet on Allen and still go after a QB you like in the 3rd round who you think has some ability. That way if Allen struggles next year you've got someone else you can take a look at, and if Allen plays well you've got a long term QB you can develop. 

 

That's fair. I probably wouldn't use a third, but if you don't think Allen is going to pan out, then that is what you have to do. 

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

That's fair. I probably wouldn't use a third, but if you don't think Allen is going to pan out, then that is what you have to do. 

 

We'll see where we are after the New England game.

 

The way he plays in weeks 12-16 when he faces 5 very good defenses will dictate how big a need QB is heading into the offseason.

 

If he plays well and wins 3-4 of those games, we've got something and it's not a priority.

 

If he struggles badly against some of the best competition he'll face on defense all year, we may have a major problem on our hands. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

We'll see where we are after the New England game.

 

The way he plays in weeks 12-16 when he faces 5 very good defenses will dictate how big a need QB is heading into the offseason.

 

If he plays well and wins 3-4 of those games, we've got something and it's not a priority.

 

If he struggles badly against some of the best competition he'll face on defense all year, we may have a major problem on our hands. 

 

If that happens, this board will be prolific ... (see what I did there?)

 

Really though, I will have to log off this board. 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

If that happens, this board will be prolific ... (see what I did there?)

 

Really though, I will have to log off this board. 

 

Agreed. 

 

If he has a meltdown and we finish like 8-8 this place will be unbearable. 

 

He needs a signature win over someone who isn't picking in the top 10 in the next draft. 

[CincyBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Brees is one of 3-4 guys who did it.

 

In terms of guys who didn't (started early and failed), there are dozens of examples. 

 

I think it's Trent Dilfer who repeatedly tells Cowherd on his show that QB's fail because of the awful situations they are thrown into.  He makes a compelling argument that it's not so much where you draft a QB as the quality of the organization the QB finds themselves in.  I think Dilfer makes a compelling argument here and it explains the relatively high failure rate of QB's drafted in the NFL. 

 

As for Allen I believe that he's walked into a mixed situation where some aspects of the Bill's organization are excellent while others are not so good for a young QB.  I do think McD's "culture" is a positive thing for a young QB and I do think that the Bills new ownership is elevating the organization and I do think Beane will be a good GM.

 

I think the jury is still out on Daboll like it is still out on Allen.

 

But let's not kid ourselves and admit that the Bills screwed up handling Allen in his rookie year.  What the Bills did in the 2018 off season, training camp and pre-season was almost a how to guide on the best ways to screw up a young QB.  From not giving the kid enough snaps to not having a vet QB on hand as a mentor to throwing him to the wolves in the 2nd game of the season, Allen wasn't exactly coddled as a rookie QB.  Then you had offensive talent so bad that they cut 2/3 of their starting WR's a third of the way into the season.

 

Now to their credit the Bills organization adapted to having a rookie QB with some astute moves during Allen's injury such as bringing in Anderson & Barkley and adding SPEED to the offense.  They continued to move towards creating a better environment for their young QB this off season by upgrading the O-line & WR core.  But lets not kid ourselves all they accomplished this off season was to take those groups from terrible to at best average.  And the Bills still lack mightily at RB & TE.

 

Bottom line is that we must be patient with BOTH Allen & Daboll.  There just hasn't been enough time or enough talent on offense to make any sort of definitive decision on either guy.  And to add QB's at this time simply introduces unneeded distractions.  I've seen folks suggest we draft a QB in the 3rd round.  That's the last thing we should do.  In the 3rd round we should be taking a WR or RB.  Adding a QB that we can all call for if Allen flounders might make us feel better as fans.  Sort of like all those calls for Gary Marangi.  But it won't help the Bills become a regular playoff team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

16 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

We'll see where we are after the New England game.

 

The way he plays in weeks 12-16 when he faces 5 very good defenses will dictate how big a need QB is heading into the offseason.

 

If he plays well and wins 3-4 of those games, we've got something and it's not a priority.

 

If he struggles badly against some of the best competition he'll face on defense all year, we may have a major problem on our hands. 

 

I don't agree with this at all.  You just can't isolate it all on Allen.  Each game will have it's own context.  Dak Prescot played very poorly over a 3 game series earlier this season because he was missing a couple of key players on offense.  Ditto for a couple of other QB's. 

 

Allen's performance over this part of the schedule will help the Bills determine whether he's the guy but the earliest the Bills can make an informed decision on this is after the end of next season and assuming they upgrade the offensive talent.

 

IMO setting this kind of criteria is almost like setting Allen up for failure.  You know there are some tough games over that stretch and you know that the Bills offense isn't exactly loaded with play makers.  So yea lets declare him a bust if he struggles through this part of the schedule.  Maybe we can draft that Minnesota QB in the 3rd round.  He looked good against Penn State!

 

If we aren't PATIENT with Allen then we're going to have to rely on being LUCKY AS HELL to solve our QB situation.  I don't know about you but I suck at Powerball.