IgotBILLStopay Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 (edited) (click on the decision tree picture below to view a bigger version of the image) McD admitted that they talked about whether to go for it on 4th and 4 or attempt the 53 yarder. Obviously they decided on the latter. I am revisiting that decision in this post since it appears very strange from a basic analytics perspective. That decision should be made based on 6 probability assumptions. 1. The probability that Hauschka makes the 53 yarder (he had missed his previous 3 from 50+ yards and missed a 34 yarder earlier in the game - but holds the record for consecutive makes of 50+ yards) 2. The probability that the Bills convert a 4th and 4 3. The probability that the Bills score a TD in 15 seconds with a TO after converting the 4th down 4. The probability that the Hauschka makes a shorter field goal after the conversion on 4th and 4 5. The probability that Bills win in OT 6. The Browns with a TimeOut and 22 seconds can get in position for a FG and make it Here are my estimates: 1. 30% 2. 46% (https://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/calculating-the-probability-of-converting-on-4th-down) 3. 30% 4. 70% 5. 50% 6. 10% That puts the win probability at 13.5 % for the 53 yard try vs. 25.3% for going for it). The probability of a successful 53 yarder has to be close to 60% for the Bills to be comfortable going for it even keeping other probabilities same (not a given - if one has a 60% confidence in a Hauschka 53 yarder - the probability of a make from a shorter distance will be much higher than the assumed 70% - that will still suggest going for it on 4th down ). Listen - I continue to believe we lucked out in having a great coach who is able to prepare the players well and motivate them to play for each other. That being said, the decision to kick a 53 yarder appears quite short-sighted. Dont the Bills have a basic analytics guy to advise them? Edited November 11, 2019 by IgotBILLStopay 4 1
ALLEN1QB Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 (edited) I have no problem with them trying to kick the field goal what I have a problem with is the stupid play on 3rd down why not try to get him a little closer instead they throw a low percentage pass that we know Josh Allen cannot hit. Right now Buffalo should have one loss and that would be the one to the Eagles the other to the coaches lost with stupid play calls throughout the game Edited November 11, 2019 by ALLEN1QB 5
boater Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: Dont the Bills have a basic analytics guy to advise them? I think their analytics is done during the week and focuses on bigger questions than forth and goal. I suspect there is not a game day analytics operation that works on a down by down basis. Nice work on the analysis. I didn't know Minitab was still a thing. I thought everybody moved to R. I used Minitab decades ago in a quality assurance application.
The Jokeman Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 Just now, ALLEN1QB said: I have no problem with them trying to kick the field goal what I have a problem with is the stupid play on 3rd down why not try to get him a little closer instead they throw a low percentage pass that we know Josh Allen cannot hit that's what I have a problem with. Exactly on 3rd and short we should have tried to take advantage of quickness of guys like Beasley and Singletary. 1
Mark80 Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 (edited) 30% chance they score a td with 15 seconds left seems way high to me. Edited November 11, 2019 by Mark80 3
dorquemada Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 1 minute ago, boater said: I think their analytics is done during the week and focuses on bigger questions than forth and goal. I suspect there is not a game day analytics operation that works on a down by down basis. Nice work on the analysis. I didn't know Minitab was still a thing. I thought everybody moved to R. I used Minitab decades ago in a quality assurance application. I'm not sure there's a bigger question than 4th and 4 for the game. Additionally, whatever the Bills' analytics team is working on, they're not doing a very good job. Unless, of course, Daboll's super cute and clever play calling is a result of analytics. For example, when facing the #30 run defense, make sure to pass 75% of the time, they'll never know what hit them! 1
GG Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 1 minute ago, boater said: I think their analytics is done during the week and focuses on bigger questions than forth and goal. I suspect there is not a game day analytics operation that works on a down by down basis. Nice work on the analysis. I didn't know Minitab was still a thing. I thought everybody moved to R. I used Minitab decades ago in a quality assurance application. If they don't have this kind of data to help in-game decisions, they should. 1
Buffalo Barbarian Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: (click on the decision tree picture below to view a bigger version of the image) McD admitted that they talked about whether to go for it on 4th and 4 or attempt the 53 yarder. Obviously they decided on the latter. I am revisiting that decision in this post since it appears very strange from a basic analytics perspective. That decision should be made based on 6 probability assumptions. 1. The probability that Hauschka makes the 53 yarder (he had missed his previous 3 from 50+ yards and missed a 34 yarder earlier in the game - but holds the record for consecutive makes of 50+ yards) 2. The probability that the Bills convert a 4th and 4 3. The probability that the Bills score a TD in 15 seconds with a TO after converting the 4th down 4. The probability that the Hauschka makes a shorter field goal after the conversion on 4th and 4 5. The probability that Bills win in OT 6. The Browns with a TimeOut and 22 seconds can get in position for a FG and make it Here are my estimates: 1. 30% 2. 46% (https://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/calculating-the-probability-of-converting-on-4th-down) 3. 30% 4. 70% 5. 50% 6. 10% That puts the win probability at 13.5 % for the 53 yard try vs. 25.3% for going for it). The probability of a successful 53 yarder has to be close to 60% for the Bills to be comfortable going for it even keeping other probabilities same (not a given - if one has a 60% confidence in a Hauschka 53 yarder - the probability of a make from a shorter distance will be much higher than the assumed 70% - that will still suggest going for it on 4th down ). Listen - I continue to believe we lucked out in having a great coach who is able to prepare the players well and motivate them to play for each other. That being said, the decision to kick a 53 yarder appears quite short-sighted. Dont the Bills have a basic analytics guy to advise them? they were 0% on 4th down conversions earlier in the game. What do the analytics say about that ??
IgotBILLStopay Posted November 11, 2019 Author Posted November 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Mark80 said: 30% chance they score a td with 15 seconds left seems way high to me. Fair enough. Would you be comfortable with 20% there? The revised win probability assuming 20% is 22.08%. It is still way higher than kicking a 53 yarder. The basic intuition is that kicking the field goal only ties the game - you have to then win it in OT whereas going for it gives you a chance to either win it outright or attempt a higher probability kick.
H2o Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, ALLEN1QB said: I have no problem with them trying to kick the field goal what I have a problem with is the stupid play on 3rd down why not try to get him a little closer instead they throw a low percentage pass that we know Josh Allen cannot hit. Right now Buffalo should have one loss and that would be the one to the Eagles the other to the coaches lost with stupid play calls throughout the game
IgotBILLStopay Posted November 11, 2019 Author Posted November 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, boater said: Nice work on the analysis. I didn't know Minitab was still a thing. I thought everybody moved to R. I used Minitab decades ago in a quality assurance application. All I did was google 4th down and distance success percentage. I guess google still goes to the Minitab blog:)
uticaclub Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 We beat the Jets & Titans because they missed FGs. It's just coming full circle in the second half of the season, now it's our time to lose games because of missed FGs. 2 1 1
IgotBILLStopay Posted November 11, 2019 Author Posted November 11, 2019 According to this post (which uses R), the probability of making a 53 yarder with the game on the line is likely even lower than the assumed 30%. https://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2013/01/chances-of-making-an-nfl-field-goal.html 1 minute ago, uticaclub said: We beat the Jets & Titans because they missed FGs. It's just coming full circle in the second half of the season, now it's our time to lose games because of missed FGs. No one says we cant learn from the experience of our opponents.
billsfan714 Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 I was watching the Steelers game and Tomlin going for 4th and 1 from his own 34 with the lead and thinking no way McD makes that call. Steelers convert, go on a 8 min drive, eating the clock Ballsy. 2
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, dorquemada said: I'm not sure there's a bigger question than 4th and 4 for the game. Additionally, whatever the Bills' analytics team is working on, they're not doing a very good job. Unless, of course, Daboll's super cute and clever play calling is a result of analytics. For example, when facing the #30 run defense, make sure to pass 75% of the time, they'll never know what hit them! it's really why I'm done with Daboll. done. 1
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: (click on the decision tree picture below to view a bigger version of the image) McD admitted that they talked about whether to go for it on 4th and 4 or attempt the 53 yarder. Obviously they decided on the latter. I am revisiting that decision in this post since it appears very strange from a basic analytics perspective. That decision should be made based on 6 probability assumptions. 1. The probability that Hauschka makes the 53 yarder (he had missed his previous 3 from 50+ yards and missed a 34 yarder earlier in the game - but holds the record for consecutive makes of 50+ yards) 2. The probability that the Bills convert a 4th and 4 3. The probability that the Bills score a TD in 15 seconds with a TO after converting the 4th down 4. The probability that the Hauschka makes a shorter field goal after the conversion on 4th and 4 5. The probability that Bills win in OT 6. The Browns with a TimeOut and 22 seconds can get in position for a FG and make it Here are my estimates: 1. 30% 2. 46% (https://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/calculating-the-probability-of-converting-on-4th-down) 3. 30% 4. 70% 5. 50% 6. 10% That puts the win probability at 13.5 % for the 53 yard try vs. 25.3% for going for it). The probability of a successful 53 yarder has to be close to 60% for the Bills to be comfortable going for it even keeping other probabilities same (not a given - if one has a 60% confidence in a Hauschka 53 yarder - the probability of a make from a shorter distance will be much higher than the assumed 70% - that will still suggest going for it on 4th down ). Listen - I continue to believe we lucked out in having a great coach who is able to prepare the players well and motivate them to play for each other. That being said, the decision to kick a 53 yarder appears quite short-sighted. Dont the Bills have a basic analytics guy to advise them? this is great stuff!
row_33 Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 it was 3rd and 4 with just under a minute on the clock and a time out in hand and they wasted 20 or so seconds and stupidly threw long this can't go on, hopefully lessons were learned for everyone involved
dorquemada Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: it's really why I'm done with Daboll. done. His play calling manages to be both ineffective at moving the ball, situationally terrible (can't figure out how to get a first to burn clock to save his life), but also a terrible, boring grind to watch. I don't even know how he does it. A 12 year old mashing buttons in Madden would call a better game 1
GG Posted November 11, 2019 Posted November 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: they were 0% on 4th down conversions earlier in the game. What do the analytics say about that ?? Even more of a reason to go for it because the odds are lower for being 0-3 on 4th down tries. 2
IgotBILLStopay Posted November 11, 2019 Author Posted November 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: they were 0% on 4th down conversions earlier in the game. What do the analytics say about that ?? If you dont have any faith in converting a 4 yard play, why kick a field goal and try to win with that offense in OT? The lower your faith in converting a 4th down - the lower will be your probability of winning in OT even if a FG is successful, no?
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