100% problem with the Deep Ball this year.

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, Lurker said:

 

Baker and Johnny say hello...

You missed the part where I said it didn’t guarantee nfl success but it’s far better than not dominating.

 

and are you calling Baker a bust? That’s insane.  If anyone has a right to complain about bad coaches, it’s him. 

Just now, K-9 said:

Appreciate the effort, but it really doesn’t matter as this thread is digressing into something other than an interesting stat comparison. 

I agree. I would love to see a breakdown of all qbs for that stat if someone can find it.

[Beast]

6 hours ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Your probably right. The coaches are brain washing him to play conservatively and protect the football so he is becoming scared to throw interceptions on the deep ball.

If the coaches were truly brain washing him he’d have a lot better ball security when running.

 

The fact of the matter is Josh Allen is a inaccurate thrower. No more needs to be said. To blame it on the coaching staff is freaking ridiculous.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Binghamton Beast

[K-9]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So basically the OP's stat is made up?

The OP mentioned 30 air yards. Which is weird because the criterion for “long ball” has always been 20 yards plus. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I do care about the long ball. I believe the improvement in completion % and the intermediate throws is more important. But he does need to hit a few of these home run balls. Just like the defense needs to force more turnovers, Allen and the offense needs to stretch and pressure the opposing defense. He has to get better with this.

[USABuffaloFan]

12 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

He's played 20 games and shown growth from year 1 to 2 though?

Can he not do that the rest of this year and big strides next until we call him a bust?

Where are you getting BUST from, he is 6-3 this year. My question is can he go 5-2 with the teams we play next and can he win in the playoffs? Can we go 5-2 with Barkley and does Barkley lose us more games? This year we are winning because of our defense keeping cans within Josh's reach. this is only happening with bad teams though.

[billspro]

22 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

How can anyone think a QB who can't come close to hitting on a long throw will be a great QB some day?

 

If Bills lose to the Dolphins on Sunday then I 100% expect Barkley to start vs. the Broncos on 11/24.

No you give Josh the season. If you bench him his time here is up and we have no QB going forward. Just pray he develops. Throwing those deep balls is a lot easier than some of the other throws he hits. His short accuracy improved a ton this year. Maybe he needs another offseason with Palmer to work on long ball accuracy. We need to give Josh the rest of the year to prove if he is franchise material. If not you bring in competition next year. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, Ethan in Portland said:

I do care about the long ball. I believe the improvement in completion % and the intermediate throws is more important. But he does need to hit a few of these home run balls. Just like the defense needs to force more turnovers, Allen and the offense needs to stretch and pressure the opposing defense. He has to get better with this.

Allen needs to hit crossing receivers in stride because there were a bunch of big plays missed because of inaccurate passes. 

[34-78-83]

14 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

There is literally zero chance that Josh Allen gets benched due to performance.  Zero.  And rightfully so.

This is true... and not likely for a number of the next few seasons.

Might be a good time for those who have already made their minds up to jump off the wagon or prepare be angry and frustrated for the foreseeable future.

Again, its like they are talking about Tyrod or Trent Edwards or someone... It ain't happening. There's too much good and too much progress.

[JaCrispy]

6 hours ago, BillsBlue said:

Exactly how I feel about Josh and the deep ball he's just scared of throwing picks 

I would agree except for the fact that he wasn’t scared to throw INT’s at the beginning of the year and he still wasn’t hitting the deep pass.

[billsfan_34]

25 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

How can anyone think a QB who can't come close to hitting on a long throw will be a great QB some day?

 

If Bills lose to the Dolphins on Sunday then I 100% expect Barkley to start vs. the Broncos on 11/24.

Barkley wont start- this regime will live and die by Josh- it is that simple.

[Wayne Arnold]

Just now, billspro said:

No you give Josh the season. If you bench him his time here is up and we have no QB going forward. Just pray he develops. Throwing those deep balls is a lot easier than some of the other throws he hits. His short accuracy improved a ton this year. Maybe he needs another offseason with Palmer to work on long ball accuracy. We need to give Josh the rest of the year to prove if he is franchise material. If not you bring in competition next year. 

 

Fair enough. I just hate seeing this team waste a cake schedule - the likes of which we'll never see again - and a very good defense because once again the quarterback holds the team back.

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

The good ones hit 30-40%, Josh is hitting 6%and zero percent this year. That matters!

The good ones hit 30-40 % and throw it 20-25 times a season. You only need a few completions to spike ratings

 

Can Josh get better? Yes. Do young QBs improve? Yes

 

You realize if Josh was even 0-10 on those balls. BuT he hit 3 out of his next 10 for 3-20 he'd be 15% already. 

 

Drew Brees only hit 11% of his balls 30+ yards downfield last season. HoF Brees

 

Allen can learn

 

[billspro]

1 minute ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Fair enough. I just hate seeing this team waste a cake schedule - the likes of which we'll never see again - and a very good defense because once again the quarterback holds the team back.

 

Doesn’t matter, Barkley is not winning a playoff game and may not even give us a better chance to win regular season games. Hopefully we can get in the playoffs either way but the only thing that matters is seeing if Josh is a franchise guy. This is likely not a Super Bowl year unfortunately. 

[USABuffaloFan]

14 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

 

Allen was 13 - 50 on "long balls" last year.  Over 21 yards.   

 

Watson 18 - 45.  Wow.  Huge difference.  

 

Mahomes 34-81.  With guys like Hill Wakins and Kelce to throw to.  And yes he is awesome.  

 

Stafford was 11-44. 

 

Brady was 14-48

 

 

 

He hasn't connected on the bomb that's for sure.  We aren't scoring enough.  Sure.  

 

But this stat is overblown.  At least he's taking the shots.  Maybe we should be taking more of them.  

The difference between 20 and 30+ is huge. there are allot more throws 20-30 yards then 30+ with much higher percentages. The stat for the league to consider it a long ball is 30+ in the AIR.

[Big Blitz]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So basically the OP's stat is made up?

 

https://brickwallblitz.com/2019/02/22/the-2018-19-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/#JameisWinston

 

 

He took far more attempts at throws over 31 yards than most.  And he's rated higher per the Football Outsiders guys than 8 other QBs .......some of whom attempted less than 10 throws over 31 yards.  

 

It's a misleading stupid stat bc you don't win in this league consistently throwing 31 plus freaking yards.  You need elite WRs to consistently do that like Nuke, AB, Jones, Thomas...

[Scott7975]

22 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

What's his accuracy% on throws 20 yard downfield? 

 

I bet it's alot better and that IS considered a deep ball

 

Throwing 30-40-50 yards downfield has ALWAYS BEEN A CRAPSHOOT

 

Not sure what his % is but he is tied at 13th with Lamar Jackson in 20+ yard completions with 30.  Top 10 is 34.  Mahomes has 36.

[billspro]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Allen needs to hit crossing receivers in stride because there were a bunch of big plays missed because of inaccurate passes. 

 

Weird I thought those were often his best throws. I remember a big play to Knox and Foster just in yesterday’s game. I’m sure there are other examples as well.

[Wayne Arnold]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

The good ones hit 30-40 % and throw it 20-25 times a season. You only need a few completions to spike ratings

 

Can Josh get better? Yes. Do young QBs improve? Yes

 

You realize if Josh was even 0-10 on those balls. BuT he hit 3 out of his next 10 for 3-20 he'd be 15% already. 

 

Drew Brees only hit 11% of his balls 30+ yards downfield last season. HoF Brees

 

Allen can learn

 

 

But Allen isn't even close to his receivers.

 

How do you "learn" how to throw a deep ball accurately? Tua is the best I've ever seen at throwing a deep ball. He didn't "learn" how. He's just naturally good at it.

[Tesla03]

we need to just stop with trying to turn Allen into Drew Brees and focus on his strengths 

 

he will never be an elite pocket passer. anyone with half a brain could have told you that when he got drafted. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

35 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

 

If Bills lose to the Dolphins on Sunday then I 100% expect Barkley to start vs. the Broncos on 11/24.

Thats the worst of many of your ? takes