100% problem with the Deep Ball this year.

[Billever76]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The major issue is that Josh Allen routinely misses his receivers on deep balls by 10 yards.

 

No wide receiver in the NFL is going to make up for his area code accuracy. 

The thing your missing is he was hitting them throws last year but couldnt hit the ones being asked of him this year so i think your wrong

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Billever76 said:

The thing your missing is he was hitting them throws last year but couldnt hit the ones being asked of him this year so i think your wrong

 

Sorry but he wasn't.

 

These stats include last year.

 

3 for 36 over his career on passes over 30 yards. 

 

Absolutely pitiful. 

Edited November 12, 2019 by jrober38

[Buffbills123]

12 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Sorry if someone already made this point, but I'm at work and didn't have time to read through every post. 

 

Josh Allen is playing mistake free the last few games (bravo), but it's also severely hindering him.  The clear reason for not being able to connect on a deep ball, is his fear of throwing an interception.  As a result, the ball always ends up in no man's land.  Not only can it not be picked, but also has no chance of our guys coming down with it.  I mean, he hasn't even been close.  It's grossly overthrown every-time.  I've felt this way for weeks, but he just confirmed it in his post game presser.  They asked him if he can pin-point the reason, for not being able to hit the deep ball, and he just said, I don't know, followed by.......I don't know if I'm super anxious about under-throwing it, and getting an interception. The coaches have him playing scared. This is a major detriment to his development. News flash.....we are not winning the Super Bowl this year, but we have this special talent, that we need to develop. Peyton threw 33 picks his rookie year.  I'm sick of this ultra conservative approach.  The only we we are beating the better teams in this league, is if Josh plays up to his potential, and that's not happening with the leash that they have on him.  Let him go, and win or lose, live with the results.  We'll be better in the long run for it.

 

Was Josh Allen consistently completing deep shots prior to catching the turnover bug?  If memory serves me correctly, turnovers have always been a problem and the deep ball has just gotten worse.  Sounds like a bad case of the yips to me.  The coaching staff has designed route trees that have led to wide open receivers.  But sure, let’s just blame the coaching staff for impacting JA’s confidence and continue to coddle the guy.  What a joke.  Your post can be found in the 2013 archives, just replace Josh Allen with EJ Manuel. 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Buffbills123

[Billever76]

10 hours ago, Lurker said:

I'd like to see them just forget about the deep ball.   I know you have to "keep the D honest."   But really, in today's NFL, who really relys on the deep ball anymore?  That's old school football.

 

Most high powered offenses today rely on short and intermediate throws and RUN AFTER THE CATCH.    That's the thing Buffalo can't seem to do with any frequency.   Singletary's 49-yard play against the Skins is the prototypical long ball in today's NFL:

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/highlight-devin-singletary-s-49-yard-catch-and-run

Thank you..i argued this point on a bills facebook page to very few people understanding of it

[Thurman#1]

Not really buying that the problem is that he doesn't want to throw INTs. No QB in history wants to throw INTs. And yet many manage to hit some deep balls.

 

The problem is much more likely mechanics. Young guy panic. An unwillingness / inability to throw it high and let guys run under it. That sort of thing.

[Billever76]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Sorry but he wasn't.

 

These stats include last year.

 

3 for 36 over his career on passes over 30 yards. 

 

Absolutely pitiful. 

We dont need passes over 30 yards...we need what allen is doing this year with a damn run game to open up playaction passes and to be more than one dimensional...allen is fine his ocs 3 to 1 pass to run playcalling is our biggest issue

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

11 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

BANG!!! These coaches have been stunting him all year and it's my biggest fear. Hell, he ran like a maniac last year and never fumbled. Why all the fumbles now. They have him so timid, it's sickening. This is an 8-1 team if they let us play ball. Maybe 9-0... I think we have it in us to get past NE if we unleashed the Kracken.

 

Interesting point. I don’t remember all the fumbling last year. 

[Thurman#1]

18 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's how I see it playing out. Daboll will be fired and McD will get a third crack at it. I never understood the Daboll hire to begin with. He had NEVER produced results in the NFL. The excuse was that he didn't have a QB. Well, this isn't working here so I fully expect the first move to be moving on from Daboll and McD choosing a 3rd OC, which is pretty rare and not a good look for McDermott. The hope is that A)he hires the right guy and B)Allen improves. Both things need to happen. I really don't think you can go into next season with the same OC/QB. This offense is fundamentally flawed and the franchise needs to find out if Allen is the guy. So he'll get a shot with a new OC. That's what I expect anyways.

 

 

 

I suppose it's possible.

 

Me, I see Daboll, McDermott and Beane getting another year. That's my guess. I see no reason to think we can't go into next season with the same lineup. Plenty of coach-QB combos improve from time, maturation and continual progress.

1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Interesting point. I don’t remember all the fumbling last year. 

 

 

Eight fumbles in 11 games last year. That's a bit less but still a lot.

[DRA3196]

11 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Sorry if someone already made this point, but I'm at work and didn't have time to read through every post. 

 

Josh Allen is playing mistake free the last few games (bravo), but it's also severely hindering him.  The clear reason for not being able to connect on a deep ball, is his fear of throwing an interception.  As a result, the ball always ends up in no man's land.  Not only can it not be picked, but also has no chance of our guys coming down with it.  I mean, he hasn't even been close.  It's grossly overthrown every-time.  I've felt this way for weeks, but he just confirmed it in his post game presser.  They asked him if he can pin-point the reason, for not being able to hit the deep ball, and he just said, I don't know, followed by.......I don't know if I'm super anxious about under-throwing it, and getting an interception. The coaches have him playing scared. This is a major detriment to his development. News flash.....we are not winning the Super Bowl this year, but we have this special talent, that we need to develop. Peyton threw 33 picks his rookie year.  I'm sick of this ultra conservative approach.  The only we we are beating the better teams in this league, is if Josh plays up to his potential, and that's not happening with the leash that they have on him.  Let him go, and win or lose, live with the results.  We'll be better in the long run for it.

You make several great points. I have noticed JA playing timid since the 3 int game against NE. He has looked slow to react and to me he looks like he is over processing what he is seeing on the field. Not how I want the leader of the offense to function. I also agree lets open it up. This year IS about his development. The problem is our soft schedule. Although it appears we are competitive we are clearly not dominating an inferior opponent, but just barely outscoring them. I think McDermott and Daboll are trying to protect Allen in hopes of winning now. Thus slowing his development. In addition I also believe that offensively, by leaning on our running game we can take the pressure off of Josh and not only be competitive but establish consistency and an offensive identity giving Josh time to figure things out. 

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, Billever76 said:

We dont need passes over 30 yards...we need what allen is doing this year with a damn run game to open up playaction passes and to be more than one dimensional...allen is fine his ocs 3 to 1 pass to run playcalling is our biggest issue

 

 

I blame the new math.  In what universe is 56.77% equal to three to one? We're 10th highest in the league in run percentage.

[Billever76]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I blame the new math.  In what universe is 56.77% equal to three to one? We're 10th highest in the league in run percentage.

Have you seen some games?...we ran it i think like 17 times this past game...of those runs like 4 of those were allen scrambles....so we ran the ball with our rbs like 13 times yet passed it 41 times...whats the math on that?

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I blame the new math.  In what universe is 56.77% equal to three to one? We're 10th highest in the league in run percentage.

What was our run to pass ratio against philly with 45mph winds?...what was our run to pass against the pats?...in all our losses dabol has abandoned the run..its facts..now go draw up them pass to run in our losses and get back to me...i wouldnt count allen scrambles as those were mostly designed passes besides a few designed runs....we got our asses kicked everytime dabol has abandoned the run....now we can even argue had he ran yesterday more and against the pats we are sitting at 8-1 now and leading the division

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

And wouldn't that be a shame IF Allen is the problem.

 

People blamed his conservatism in year one on the fact that he didn't trust the QB(Taylor). What if that's still the case?

 

He IS a conservative coach by nature; I think that's pretty evident. But I also believe he knew full well going for it on 4th and 4 was the right decision. I "believe" he didn't want Allen to fail and face the heat. I think he made the decision to own the heat. That's an opinion, not a fact. 

 

I'll tell you this; now that McDermott is facing the heat, he's gonna let Allen sink or swim the next time a similar situation arises. He's not gonna continue to take the fall because he has his own ego(we all do).

 

I actually LIKE McDermott, which seems to be the contrarian view these days. Yes, he's conservative, but he's the best HC the Bills have had in a while and he's proven he can get max wins from the roster provided. Maybe he's not a great HC. Maybe he's too conservative. We just don't know because he hasn't had enough time.

 

But I will say that BEANE chose Allen. And what I see happening going forward IF Allen doesn't improve is McDermott taking the fall and Beane getting the chance to choose another HC. Again, completely unfair if the QB is the problem. 

 

LSHMEAB, did you watch McDermott's presser?  I think he genuinely believed, probably against any analytics, that the decision to kick the FG was the correct one.

I could be mistaken, but that's the distinct impression I got from watching him talk about it.  But I think he'll revisit the whole sequence of events in his CI-quest, and make a different decision not because he has an ego and wants Allen to take the fall, but because further review shows it to be the higher probability choice.

 

I don't believe that Beane chose Allen.  I think Beane has made it clear he's a bit of an old-school "eyeball" scout at heart, but I think it was very much a group decision, everyone on board that they wanted to get him if they could.  It is possible that Darnold may have been their first choice, but once he was off the menu, Allen it was.

[DuckyBoys]

30 minutes ago, DRA3196 said:

You make several great points. I have noticed JA playing timid since the 3 int game against NE. He has looked slow to react and to me he looks like he is over processing what he is seeing on the field. Not how I want the leader of the offense to function. I also agree lets open it up. This year IS about his development. The problem is our soft schedule. Although it appears we are competitive we are clearly not dominating an inferior opponent, but just barely outscoring them. I think McDermott and Daboll are trying to protect Allen in hopes of winning now. Thus slowing his development. In addition I also believe that offensively, by leaning on our running game we can take the pressure off of Josh and not only be competitive but establish consistency and an offensive identity giving Josh time to figure things out. 

I'm sure they beat avoiding throwing interceptions into his head to the point he is not trusting what he sees the first time.  Not only does he seem timid he also looks frustrated.   I'd love to see him drop three steps and just trust the window will be there and fire it in more. 

 

I worry he might follow how things went with Tyrod  Not saying Taylor was a passing machine but the first season he was willing to at least throw  deep along the boundaries.  The next season all those boundary balls were always too long or out of bounds/too close to the sideline.  Sound familiar?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He's always fumbled.

 

Huh.  How many fumbles at U of Wyoming?

Reedley?

High school?

 

I look forward to education on this point.

[Big Blitz]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

LSHMEAB, did you watch McDermott's presser?  I think he genuinely believed, probably against any analytics, that the decision to kick the FG was the correct one.

I could be mistaken, but that's the distinct impression I got from watching him talk about it.  But I think he'll revisit the whole sequence of events in his CI-quest, and make a different decision not because he has an ego and wants Allen to take the fall, but because further review shows it to be the higher probability choice.

 

I don't believe that Beane chose Allen.  I think Beane has made it clear he's a bit of an old-school "eyeball" scout at heart, but I think it was very much a group decision, everyone on board that they wanted to get him if they could.  It is possible that Darnold may have been their first choice, but once he was off the menu, Allen it was.

 

 

This was my concern during the game as it was happening and I depressingly get that impression today to.  

[LSHMEAB]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

LSHMEAB, did you watch McDermott's presser?  I think he genuinely believed, probably against any analytics, that the decision to kick the FG was the correct one.

I could be mistaken, but that's the distinct impression I got from watching him talk about it.

I did not watch the presser(can you blame me?) It's entirely possible my opinion is incorrect. It's an opinion and not a fact. He SEEMED genuinely conflicted in that moment and I BELIEVE(again, an opinion) that he took into account what impact a failed conversion there would have on Allen's rep/ego/media heat. It's understandable in the sense that Allen's development is so crucial to the franchise's short(yes short) term success. But the Bills are in the middle of a playoff run. I don't remember the sequence of events, but it WAS fourth down. I get it; the offense wasn't playing with urgency. But they still played themselves into a 4th down.

 

We'll see what happens going forward and your take is probably more rational. I'm going purely by gut and McDermott's "demeanor," which is as far as it gets from the scientific method.

 

There are a bunch of people culpable for that POORLY executed final drive so there's naturally going to be various takes. Either way, it was unacceptable and I'm really sick of watching the offense not score POINTS. Very disappointing performance yesterday all around, so many of us are "in our feelings" right now.

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Huh.  How many fumbles at U of Wyoming?

Reedley?

High school?

 

I look forward to education on this point.

 

13 fumbles (7 lost) in 27 games at Wyoming.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

I did not watch the presser(can you blame me?) It's entirely possible my opinion is incorrect. It's an opinion and not a fact. He SEEMED genuinely conflicted in that moment and I BELIEVE(again, an opinion) that he took into account what impact a failed conversion there would have on Allen's rep/ego/media heat. It's understandable in the sense that Allen's development is so crucial to the franchise's short(yes short) term success. But the Bills are in the middle of a playoff run. I don't remember the sequence of events, but it WAS fourth down. I get it; the offense wasn't playing with urgency. But they still played themselves into a 4th down.

 

We'll see what happens going forward and your take is probably more rational. I'm going purely by gut and McDermott's "demeanor," which is as far as it gets from the scientific method.

 

There are a bunch of people culpable for that POORLY executed final drive so there's naturally going to be various takes. Either way, it was unacceptable and I'm really sick of watching the offense not score POINTS. Very disappointing performance yesterday all around, so many of us are "in our feelings" right now.

 

Well, you're entitled to your opinion, but I think it's a big stretch to believe that a player's reputation even enters an NFL HC's mind at such a time, including McDermott.

 

If he seemed conflicted, it may have been because his analytics were telling him one thing based upon Haushka's pre-game kicks and recent >50 FG failures, but his personal faith in Haushka and personal beliefs about OT "giving the team a chance to win" were in conflict

[Buffalo_Stampede]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Huh.  How many fumbles at U of Wyoming?

Reedley?

High school?

 

I look forward to education on this point.

8 in 11 starts as a rookie. 

11 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

13 fumbles (7 lost) in 27 games at Wyoming.

Thank you for the stat. I was saying he fumbled as a rookie also. So it seems he fumbled in college as well.

[Gugny]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

8 in 11 starts as a rookie. 

Thank you for the stat. I was saying he fumbled as a rookie also. So it seems he fumbled in college as well.

 

He also ran a lot in college.